I'm going to disagree. The most reasonable reason is variance. The hashpower is unchanged, but the luck is a little bad for a few hours. The charts calculate hashpower based on blocks found, not based on actual hashpower. A decline in luck for AM can easily correspond with an increase in luck for a major pool.
Now, for the last time, can we stop discussing why hashpower changed over any period shorter than 3 days? If you think hashpower changed, ask yourself what time period the change is over. If it's less than 3 days, the MOST likely explanation is variance. If it's greater than 3 days, then you can start speculating about hardware being moved, planned slowdown before difficulty reset, etc.
It feels like we have this discussion every 7-10 pages in this thread.
Variance.
Again, variance.
Again, variance.
I think that attributing this to variance is a bit of a stretch. Something is going on, we just don't know what. With that said, I'm inclined to believe there is a valid reason behind the drop (hardware sales, etc.) The probability of finding a block per hour based on a given difficulty is easy to figure out. Conversely, the probability of not finding a given block per hour (or any timeframe) is easy to figure as well. Therefore, determining hashpower over 24 or 48 hours should be fairly accurate. A lot of variance would have to happen for 24 or 48 samples to be incorrect. Over 48 hours, AM is hashing at ~18.75 th/s. Using a larger sample size takes us before the dip, and the numbers are still lower than expected. 120 hours works out to 28.84, and that average is weighted heavily in the first couple of days. Tomorrow (and the next day) will provide us with good insight as to current hashpower over the past 5 days Regardless, it's fun to talk about and look at the data. |
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I'm also waiting for someone to connect dots here. How exactly does the "transactions-per-time-limit" affect the USDBTC exchange rate?
It certainly has a direct correlation to transaction volume, but I'm not seeing anything between BTC and USD. I may not have enough insight as to why they are related, though. Ian |
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I meant adjusting the difficulty to allow for 1 block every 5 minutes, as well as cutting the reward in half. The net effect is the same for miners (ASICMINER), but would this allow for greater throughput?
Ian
Like I said earlier, the reward only affects throughput by affecting change in hashrate and influencing transaction selection. 1 block every 5 minutes would double the possible transactions / second, but it would also double the possible blockchain size increase speed. Okay, I understand. Thank you for the information. Ian |
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handy link, thanks  No problem. I'm working on creating a large amount of historical data for SmiGueL to use over at asicminercharts.com. Ian |
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So much for the AM speculation thread...
I'm not sure what to speculate about until we figure out why the hashrate is hovering around 10 th/s over the past 24 hours. With that said -- the two hour number is ~35 th/s. However, that is a rather small sample size. |
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What would the net effect be of a 5M max block size It would allow for, but not necessitate, 5 times the blockchain size rate of increase and 5 times the transaction rate. reward halving The reward has no effect on the block size, except for the fact that it increases the importance of fees. and difficulty retarget of 1 block/5 minutes? These are conflicting things. The difficulty retarget happens every n blocks. The block rate is a (blocks / minute) number. Sorry -- I was unclear. I meant adjusting the difficulty to allow for 1 block every 5 minutes, as well as cutting the reward in half. The net effect is the same for miners (ASICMINER), but would this allow for greater throughput? Ian |
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Thanks for the follow-up.
Maybe I'm a bit simple minded, but I do not see how this directly correlates to the BTC USD exchange rate.
I do appreciate the info, however.
Visa handles, at peak, ~4000 transactions per second. With Bitcoin, there are multiple solutions, but none of them involve doing nothing and continuing to use the blockchain alone: - Move most transactions off-chain - Increase MAX_BLOCK_SIZE - Increase blocks per day - Make smaller transactions somehow What would the net effect be of a 5M max block size, reward halving, and difficulty retarget of 1 block/5 minutes? Ian |
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I've got no horse in this race, but I believe BTC's max is currently 7 T/S
Follow-up question -- why is there a 7 transaction/s limit? 10min blocks* -> 6 blocks / hour (6 blocks / hour)(1 hour / 3600 seconds) = 0.0016667 blocks / second Max block size = 1 MB (0.0016667 blocks / second)(1 MB / block) = 0.0016667 MB/s (0.0016667 MB / second)(1,000,000 bytes / 1MB) = 1666.7 bytes / second According to dooglus, there are (in*148 + out*34 + 10 plus or minus 'in') bytes in a transaction. This equals a minimum tx size of 180 bytes, and a 1-input 2-output minimum size of 225 bytes. Example. (1666.7 bytes / second)(1 tx / 180 bytes) = 9.26 tx/s (1666.7 bytes / second)(1 tx / 225 bytes) = 7.41 tx/s*Note that an ever-increasing hashrate (like the current scenario) means blocks are generated faster, on average, than once every 10 minutes, and a decreasing network hashrate would slow block creation. Thanks for the follow-up. Maybe I'm a bit simple minded, but I do not see how this directly correlates to the BTC USD exchange rate. I do appreciate the info, however. |
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I've got no horse in this race, but I believe BTC's max is currently 7 T/S
Follow-up question -- why is there a 7 transaction/s limit? |
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Here is the link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=210298.msg2220582#msg2220582And there are other more technical threads with the same debate and more math involved but generally speaking if Max Block Size is not increased then transactions per second cannot increase and how are you going to have Bitcoin reach $1000 a Bitcoin and surpass Paypal or Visa / Mastercard when there are these sorts of caps? It's basically the same stupid problem Mt Gox has with it's limit on transactions per second. Thanks. I'm wondering if blocks are even getting close to the max block size? A quick search didn't reveal anything even close. What are the max transactions per second? |
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Actually I do and there are discussions about this in other threads. Search the forum and see for yourself.
This is the most terrible response that anyone could post. I hate googling for something and clicking a link to a post that says "OMFG SEARCH NOOB".. hah Can you provide a link? I do not see a correlation between BTC to USD & Max Block size. Thanks. |
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Anyone have an idea of what's going on with the hashrate?
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No kidding, I would like to hear more about this $500.00 limit.
There does not seem to be any correlation anywhere in the code between dollars and bitcoins anymore than than there is between bitcoins and bananas.
Well, I know the ratio of BTC to CPE (cantaloupe) is definitely in there. |
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Max Block Size and the limit on the amount of transactions per second means it cannot go over $500 unless this is fixed.
The largest blocks I've seen are ~250KB. How does the 1MB limit prevent BTC from going over $500? |
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Is the person who updates the Google Spreadsheet for hashrate taking a vacation or has it been dropped?
Busy busy busy  I'm working on an 1, 3 and 7 day average chart, but that 'll take some days.. Asicminer hahsrate is bouncing like crazy these days so it's a bit difficult to estimate the hashrate.. Until I can figure out what's up with the JSON output I'm producing for you -- I've put this up if anyone cares to look at 4 days worth of data: http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/ |
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dividend prediction for wednesday: .025
Whoah -- you're a day early on the prediction. |
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Since this thread is for speculation -- what does everyone think is going on with the hashrate? ~23 th/s for the past 8 hours..
BitMinter was DDoSed earlier. Other pools might have been hit as well, but I haven't heard anything of the sort. Interesting. Thanks for the info, I hadn't heard that. |
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Since this thread is for speculation -- what does everyone think is going on with the hashrate? ~23 th/s for the past 8 hours..
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There is no need to respond. The only change to their percentage of the global hash will come from those gpu miners who decide to turn off their machines because they are no longer profitable at $100 /btc. I do not anticipate that this number will be very large, as it will be more than made up over time by additional ASIC miners coming into the game.
Well, they can't keep up 1.5 blocks per hour without increasing their hashing power. |
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