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7 blocks until retarget.. ~1 hour or so.. I'm really curious to see how ASICMiNER will respond.
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What's with the crazy drop of network %? Right now he has 16% with 22th/s..
19.39 th/s over the past 24 hours.. 13.96 th/s over the past 4 hours.. this is good, asicminer is keeping btc decentralized, they obviously have enough power to have 99% of network, they just not doing that, because that wouldnt be fair to the rest of bitcoin network, us shareholders have nothing to worry about because that just means more dividends from hardware sales  I'm probably one of the biggest ASICMINER fanboys out there -- but you sound a bit delusional |
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What's with the crazy drop of network %? Right now he has 16% with 22th/s..
19.39 th/s over the past 24 hours.. 13.96 th/s over the past 4 hours.. |
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Next retarget tomorrow... I wonder if we will see peaks over 50 th/s?
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I never got an answer. Just some first grade math here:
1) 2.5 BTC per share -> 0.036 weekly dividend = 0.145 btc a month = 17 month breakeven
2) 50 BTC (20 shares) = 3 btc a month
3) 50 BTC buys you a 13 GH asic card = 12 BTC a month (factor in whatever difficulty increase it is still significantly better income, and keep in mind the mining shares dividend are also impacted by the difficulty increase).
So i really dont understand why anyone will buy asic shares? what is the point? the return on those are terrible, on top of absolutely insane counterparty risk dependent on some guy who is running a black box that tells you what dividend he will pay.
Why would you not just have a physical card you own with no dependency on third party and make significantly more btc as income? Yet so many smart people are buying those shares...there must be something i am missing?
waiting to be enlightened...
BFL 5 GH/s = $274 18 Mh/s per USD 1.8 Gh/s per BTC @ 100 USD/BTC 1 AM share costs more than 2.74 BTC at the moment and the exchange rate is at 100 USD/BTC. Assuming that AM was at 2.74 BTC per share, then 1 share would need to provide 5 Gh/s in order to offer the same value as a 5 Gh/s BFL. At 5 Gh/s per share, AM would need a hashrate of 5 Gh/s/share * 400, 000 shares = 2,000 Th/s. People claiming that AM continuously adding hashing power is a reason why share prices are currently undervalued need to take a serious look at the numbers. With a share price of 2.74 BTC, AM needs a hash rate of 2,000 Th/s in order to be competitive with a 5 Gh/s BFL. Their initial wafer order was for 50 Th/s. The current wafer order is for 200 TH/s in two parts. These should be coming online over the next couple of months. That's a maximum of 250 Th/s. With the rate at which BFL is dispatching back orders, they should be shipping from the shelf by the time AM bring that 250 Th/s online. Going by this site's numbers, BFL have about 400 Th/s to bring online. Avalon's 3 batches should be online by then as well, which is another 100 Th/s. Avalon chips should be shipping by then as well, so we'll see a number of new mining systems based on them. That's another 150 Th/s. 100 Th/s should come online in July and August from 100TH and 50 Th/s should come online from Metabank in August and September. In September and October, KnC should also be bringing 200 Th/s online. The next gen chips from Avalon and AM are due in October and Yifu said said that Avalon would be using 55 nm. The BitFury chips used by 100TH and Metabank are also 55 nm and I'd assume AM will also be 55 nm. At this point, most of the hashing power will be coming from BFL products, and Avalon and AM having a similar amount at around 250 Th/s. BitFury and KnC should also have similar amounts at around 200 Th/s. AM needs 2,000 Th/s to be competitive with a 5 Gh/s BFL, to be competitive with a Metabank BitFury 120, we have the following: Metabank BitFury 120 120 Gh/s 2160 USD 55.556 Mh/s per USD 5.556 Gh/s per BTC ASICMINER 6,500 Th/s 400,000 shares 16.25 Gh/s per share 2.93 BTC per share 5.556 Gh/s per BTC It truly boggles my mind how anyone could believe that ASICMINER is undervalued. You forgot to account for the fact that ASICMINER sells hardware as well. I'm not sure how much hashing power ASICMINER had on the market when they went live, but I'd be interested to know. If anyone has this information, please post it up. |
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the only valid explanation i heard is that you also get one-off dividends from hardware sales...so let me ask how much have you "shareholders" actually received per share for the hardware sales so far?
Last week was ~0.017 from hashing, ~0.02 from hardware sales. |
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Correct me if I am wrong, but URLs are encrypted in SSL as well. You are correct. |
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they plan on adding X hundred terahashes, thats all I currently know
They aim for about 280TH by September. If that equates to 24% of the network by then is a different question. Given the recent influx of new Asic projects it might be much less than that. If they all pull an BFL however, well, good for Asicminer  Interesting times, let's see what happens! If the current difficulty increase trend holds true until September, ASICMINER will need 519% more hashing power than they have today to maintain the current 24%. In other words, they'll need to increase their hashing power from 33.13 th/s to 171.94 th/s. Whoops -- math was wrong. I should say October rather than September. Edit #2 -- and three months after that, it will require 17 times today's hashing power to maintain the same ratio. 2.281 ph/s  |
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Maybe next week divs will be a bit less cause blades are sold out
I agree with your assessment. Blades represented ~.017 of last weeks dividends. |
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Look at that, ASICMINER is 100% out of BTC guild and 100% solo mining. More profits for us.
I'm curious what kind of effect merged mining had on income from BTC guild? I'm sure they've thought through that -- I'm just curious what the thought process was. |
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I think friedcat should keep 1-1,5% of direct shares amount he transfers from a user to another, and keep these money for the company not including them in dividends of course. Passthroughs charge a fee, he should do the same, since he has to do that manually. This way the company will benefit more from an increase in share price.
I agree with this. Perhaps they could find another trustworthy (or well-supervised) person to handle the share transfers, and pay for it with this fee. However I have no idea where they are at with their own automated exchange... it wouldn't surprise me if one of the next updates reveals that they have something ready or almost ready on that front. Well there is still this list of questions we need to exhaust so https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1KYOoPt3SvM9agj54eah4rl5MabqbGheWSBgHFgFgA0U/viewform?pli=1&edit_requested=trueJust so everyone's aware -- voting has ended. I've archived the results and we'll move on in a couple of weeks. However, we are currently compiling a list for the community to vote on (~3 weeks'ish from now), and TAT will send them on to Friedcat (just like this round of questions.) If you have questions you'd like considered for community voting, you can send them to me, ThickAsThieves, VJain or FrankTank. We will include some that didn't make the cut from the last round, I suspect. Ian |
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but surely they will be much better than all available similar products in the market now.
Things are moving fast, and "available in the market now" may have little to do with what will be available in october. KnC is supposed to deliver ships at 28nm for instance: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.0The next gen is going to entirely re-shuffle the deck, I hope AM takes proper design decisions now to then remain a big actor, or better the leader as it is today. "Supposed to deliver" are the key words here. Let's not play with words. You cannot take decisions based on your assumptions that all competitors will fail to meet their promises. This is obvious that the landscape of technology available in october will be different than that of today. In other words -- if you treat every threat as a ... threat, you'll be in better shape. I'm excited to learn more about Gen 2 when the information becomes available. |
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i vaguely remember on their "details" tab on btct.co that if friedcat ever gets... fried, there are specific instructions for his friend to access his wallets and distribute the necessary funds to shareholders
I believe Burnside details what to do if something happens to him, not Friedcat. |
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Friedcat,
A team of us shareholders has taken the time to collect and simplify the most popular questions people have for you and ASICMINER. I am sending these questions to you at Jutarul's suggestion, and on behalf of all ASICMINER shareholders that took our poll.
I am only going to send 3 questions to you, in order to keep things simple, and to hopefully maintain this line of communication in the future. We understand that you might not be able to fully answer some things due to competition, but any amount of info will be plenty for us!
If you can take the time to answer, feel free to post your answers in your main ASICMINER thread, or respond to me directly and I will copy your answers verbatim.
Thank you so much for your consideration, here are the questions:
1. Can you tell us more about the next generation of ASIC chips? When should we expect them, and what specs might they achieve?
2. Does ASICMINER/Bitfountain have any legal risks by doing business in China? Are cryptocurrencies or mining of virtual currencies allowed there?
3. What contingency plan do you have in place if Friedcat or other important employees become seriously ill or otherwise unavailable as a resource to ASICMINER? Awesome -- thanks for passing the info along! |
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While I think you overestimate how slowly BFL will ship from here, I still believe AM won't have trouble staying a step ahead of them.
You are better informed than me so I bow to your superior knowledge, but I based it on the fact that BFL have continually been surprised by issues throughout. I don't think they can project anything very well beyond a few days. If they are saying now 2 months to clear the backlog I don't think a time loading of 100% is unreasonable, especially as the single is the most complex product they've tried to ship. Plus I see a lot of what they say in public as PR spin to keep existing punters happy and encourage new ones (not outright lies, just unguarded optimism). But I do agree that even if BFL *do* hit their targets AM will cope. Does anyone have an estimate as to how large (th/s) their backlog is? |
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ATTENTION!!!Since we have everyone's attention after another tremendous dividend, I'd like to update everyone on the work of ianp, VJain, Franktank, and myself. We have gathered and pruned what we believe are the most important questions we have for Friedcat at this time. We tried to be fair, and avoid speculative or selfish requests. Now, we ask you to please review the questions in the form of this poll: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1KYOoPt3SvM9agj54eah4rl5MabqbGheWSBgHFgFgA0UOnce you rank the questions, I will submit the top voted ones to Friedcat, and/or a board member in hopes of getting an official statement on each of the chosen questions. Thank you! Just a reminder to everyone! We will be cutting off the voting at approximately 12 PM EST. |
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Quick update -- 87 responses so far. Keep 'em coming!
I don't know what exactly should we expect from the ranking? There are few questions and simply answering all of them shouldn't be that long... EDIT: Btw, all of them are interesting, good job guys! The ranking will allow us to determine which questions are most important to the people who voted (shareholders, presumably.) While there are only a few questions, we surmised that submitting the top two or three would give us the highest likelihood of garnering a response from ASICMINER. Ian |
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....
Quick update -- 87 responses so far. Keep 'em coming!
I'm guessing this isn't linked to shareholders in any way and anyone can fill it in and click send. If so it could be vulnerable to competitors forcing a response on ASICminers development plans and status. If it turns out to be a very popular question please do something like filtering or a shareholder poll before including it. Thanks. As TAT mentioned earlier -- I think ASICMINER would be savvy enough to not divulge any information that would compromise their operations Ian |
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You may be right. 0.02 mining dividend + 0.01766975 sales = 0.03766975 That address may be where they forward the net profits from sales. |
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ATTENTION!!!Since we have everyone's attention after another tremendous dividend, I'd like to update everyone on the work of ianp, VJain, Franktank, and myself. We have gathered and pruned what we believe are the most important questions we have for Friedcat at this time. We tried to be fair, and avoid speculative or selfish requests. Now, we ask you to please review the questions in the form of this poll: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1KYOoPt3SvM9agj54eah4rl5MabqbGheWSBgHFgFgA0UOnce you rank the questions, I will submit the top voted ones to Friedcat, and/or a board member in hopes of getting an official statement on each of the chosen questions. Thank you! questions 6-7 I would really prefer them unanswered because they might tip competitors. +1 - anything that gives a significant strategy away shouldn't be disclosed publicly. You can simply voice this by taking the poll, no need to worry about Friedcat saying something he shouldn't say, unless he's drunk or something Quick update -- 87 responses so far. Keep 'em coming! |
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