ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[velacreations]

well, the price is moving up ahead of dividends, so it may not crash that low.  It will probably get up around 2.95 before dividends.  What happens after divs is anyone's guess, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 2.75.

So, I think selling for ~2.88 now to buy at 2.75 in 3-5 days to make .11 per share (.13 - .025) is not a bad option.

The other side is BTC dropping.  If you see BTC go below 95, it will trigger a sell off in AM, as well.  

This will be an interesting week.

[velacreations]

AM have a nice track record of shattering expectations (upwards) so while a nice dose of caution isn't bad, don't rule out a surprisingly high dividend either

well, it has to come from somewhere, and mining revenue is on par for normal (.015)  They are not selling blades, so no revenue from that.  This leaves the USBs to make up the difference, and I highly doubt they will pull more than .01 per share (if even that).

[twentyseventy]

AM have a nice track record of shattering expectations (upwards) so while a nice dose of caution isn't bad, don't rule out a surprisingly high dividend either

well, it has to come from somewhere, and mining revenue is on par for normal (.015)  They are not selling blades, so no revenue from that.  This leaves the USBs to make up the difference, and I highly doubt they will pull more than .01 per share (if even that).

AM is actually hashing about 33% faster this week compared to last week, so if normal is .015 then you can expect about ~.02 this week from solely mining.

[Luckybit]

$1000 a Bitcoin is not a lot and if the software ceiling issue weren't there I would say it could reach $1000 this year.

Speculation noob here.

It seems to me that one of the short term collateral aspects of the ASIC war that's ramping up will be an exceedingly large supply of bitcoins in a low demand market. There are very little people actually using bitcoin, the exchange activity is mostly bots and whales, and acquiring bitcoin is a difficult task for your average internet user. On the other hand, there are LOTS of miners selling their bitcoins for fiat.

I'm bullish on Bitcoin long-term, but in the current context, $1000 a Bitcoin is impossible. We're struggling to keep three digits, and nothing in the horizon suggests any kind of reversal (more likely the opposite).

Please enlighten me if I'm missing something.

Yeah, hackers, bots, DDOS, market manipulators, and the fact that Bitcoin isn't designed to go over $500 are all reasons why it can't reach $1000 right now, but when those problems are solved then it can. Demand is clearly there as you can see by the media attention and businesses adopting it.

Bitcoin not designed to go over $500..?

Max Block Size and the limit on the amount of transactions per second means it cannot go over $500 unless this is fixed.

[Luckybit]

Circuitry has a very good point.
Most people are hoarding and holding there bitcoins.
They are holding them in expectation that the price will go up.
There really is no Bitcoin economy. Most of the investment instruments, stocks on sites like Bitfunder, are investments in mining or investments in companies that loan money. (Bitpride is the exception, they sell t-shorts with bitcoin logos.)

Until you can use bitcoin to buy non-technological goods, and items other than alpaca sox, like jewelry, chocolate, food stuff, clothing, things that you need for daily life, then Bitcoin will have a little incestuous economy of being generated by bitcoiners to be sold on markets where speculators buy them and hold them or try to flip them, but where most bitcoin are held and not used.

If you want to make bitcoin viable, then convince your fiat bank to also have a hosted bitcoin wallet, convince your pizza place on the corner to accept bitcoin, convince the local frozen yogurt store to accept bitcoin.

You can. The problem is if I want to start a business and do an IPO are there enough investors? The answer is yes, if what you say is true that everyone is hoarding. So all we have to do is turn hoarders into investors. The best way to spend Bitcoins is to invest them and the only way to be able to invest them is to have more companies on the virtual stock exchange to invest in. The majority of people don't even know how to work the virtual stock exchange yet and haven't even heard of ASICminer yet and of the people who have they probably just heard of it. The people starting businesses aren't using BTCT.CO like they should be.

Forget about convincing the pizza place or established businesses to accept Bitcoin. Start a business which accepts Bitcoin.

The focus of the Bitcoin community must be on entrepreneurship. Start by perfecting the formula of going public. ASICminer is currently the only truly successful Bitcoin business right now so it's going to take a bit of time for a truly deep economy to form. But when it does then we will log into BTCT.CO or whatever site and we will see thousands of different companies to buy shares in and hundreds of companies having IPOs.

When we see that then people will start investing more. When people invest then those businesses they invest in can create jobs which pay out in Bitcoins and the people who earn those Bitcoins will have to pay their rent, buy food, and socks. Everybody can't be a miner and until people start figuring that out there wont be any opportunities to invest in.

[bobboooiie]

AM have a nice track record of shattering expectations (upwards) so while a nice dose of caution isn't bad, don't rule out a surprisingly high dividend either

well, it has to come from somewhere, and mining revenue is on par for normal (.015)  They are not selling blades, so no revenue from that.  This leaves the USBs to make up the difference, and I highly doubt they will pull more than .01 per share (if even that).

AM is actually hashing about 33% faster this week compared to last week, so if normal is .015 then you can expect about ~.02 this week from solely mining.

Not true unfortunately, thats because of moving all Hashing power to solo from pool. From my observation we will mine a bit less from last week

[mvidetto]

AM have a nice track record of shattering expectations (upwards) so while a nice dose of caution isn't bad, don't rule out a surprisingly high dividend either

So does AAPL and look where they are right now...

[TaxReturn]

Max Block Size and the limit on the amount of transactions per second means it cannot go over $500 unless this is fixed.

You have clearly no clue what you are talking about.

[tkone]

edit i think am is doing amazing

[ianp]

Max Block Size and the limit on the amount of transactions per second means it cannot go over $500 unless this is fixed.

The largest blocks I've seen are ~250KB.

How does the 1MB limit prevent BTC from going over $500?

[Rival]

No kidding, I would like to hear more about this $500.00 limit.

There does not seem to be any correlation anywhere in the code between dollars and bitcoins anymore than than there is between bitcoins and bananas. If a bitcoin cannot be worth more than $500.00, how many bananas can it be worth?

[ianp]

No kidding, I would like to hear more about this $500.00 limit.

There does not seem to be any correlation anywhere in the code between dollars and bitcoins anymore than than there is between bitcoins and bananas.

Well, I know the ratio of BTC to CPE (cantaloupe) is definitely in there.

[velacreations]

AM is actually hashing about 33% faster this week compared to last week, so if normal is .015 then you can expect about ~.02 this week from solely mining.

their % of the network is still the same, hence the same dividends.  Look at the bottom of this page: http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

Also, there were times this week when their hashrate was lower than last week.

[twentyseventy]

AM is actually hashing about 33% faster this week compared to last week, so if normal is .015 then you can expect about ~.02 this week from solely mining.

their % of the network is still the same, hence the same dividends.  Look at the bottom of this page: http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

Also, there were times this week when their hashrate was lower than last week.

You are correct, sir. Apologies for the mistake

[velacreations]

You are correct, sir. Apologies for the mistake

no problem!  we are all here to learn.

you know, though, I believe you are the first person to ever apologize on this forum for making a mistake.  Kudos to you!

[ianp]

Anyone have an idea of what's going on with the hashrate?

[Franktank]

Anyone have an idea of what's going on with the hashrate?

Friedcat has previously held off on hash rate to maximize yields later on (see friedcat's March 14th post). Or they might start selling off used blades in preparation for redesigned blades. It's anyone's guess.

[tkone]

Anyone have an idea of what's going on with the hashrate?

Friedcat has previously held off on hash rate to maximize yields later on (see friedcat's March 14th post). Or they might start selling off used blades in preparation for redesigned blades. It's anyone's guess.

or maybe they are starting to take of redesigned blades to get ready to sell them? and starting to plug in new 2nd gen asics soon

i dont think the share price will drop any lower then the 2.8ish atm, really doubt it will go much lower then that,

might take a few days or so to get back on the rise though, so we'll see

[freedomno1]

AM have a nice track record of shattering expectations (upwards) so while a nice dose of caution isn't bad, don't rule out a surprisingly high dividend either

So does AAPL and look where they are right now...

Then clearly you did not look at it when Steve Jobs was and wasn't around
http://www.forbes.com/sites/richkarlgaard/2012/12/10/steve-jobs-warns-apple-dont-be-greedy/

[notme]