Yes, if I take the year to date into account and assume difficulty stabilises at close to its current level when price stabilizes (which seems reasonable) then the situation looks a bit better actually.
It is not reasonable. Difficulty will continue to rise. You don't know that. Just a couple weeks ago you were just as sure that difficulty would continue to rise by 50% every 2016 blocks. Last rise was 13% I believe, next will likely be the same or potentially lower. Similarly on the other side of the fence, the ROI is unfortunately unknown, that's the problem with this thread. ROI now is good, in the future it will be...? I have already made roughly 400% ROI from my cluster, including all costs to date, in a fraction of a year, but the rate of return is decreasing due to various factors. What I end up with by the end of the year I care not to calculate because it will be meaningless speculation. Regardless, mining has been good to me as an investment. But the strategy and outlook I take into the future will have to be far different than the one I used in the past. So, ROI, we'll see. Nothing is guaranteed. Same with stocks. |
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Seems like I was wrong. Top card has a harder life.
Guess I'll switch the position of my 5870 and 5850 then, since the 5870 was on top and is running at 86 Celsius when mining (at 96% fan!) while the 5850 underneath enjoys 70 degree temps at 52% fan.
It's always about airflow. Which is why middle cards typically tend to be hotter when you go above 2 cards. They have a hot card on top of them with poor airflow radiating heat and disallowing it to radiate efficiently, as well as additionally having it's own airflow reduced by a card below it (also radiating heat into the area it takes it's air from). If you can figure a way to space the cards a little bit (risers, or plastic spacers) and/or force cooler air in between the card it can help a LOT. From my own experience when the room ambient was about 80F the cards ran hotter and louder than when the room ambient was 65F, without any other change to the setup. Cooling is a PITA. |
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I've always been under the impression that the 'Network Total' field on BitcoinCharts.com was generated from a moving average of blocks solved per hour. Meaning a huge spurt of pools or miners getting lucky and solving a bunch of blocks for several hours would inflate the 'Network Total' field quite a bit.
Example: 8-9 blocks were being solved per hour for several hours would inflate the 'Network Total' hash by 25%-50% even though 'actual' would be much lower.
Cheers,
Kermee
That is correct, this is why if you refresh bitcoincharts every 30 minutes or so you will see the hashrate dropping. Not because people are dropping out, but simply because as the spurt gets dropped by the moving average, the apparent hash rate is calculated lower. From 16THash to 15THash to 14.5THash since I began reading this thread. We'll have to wait and see where it lands however. |
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Well fair enough. Grue gave a good link on a general concept to explain why it wouldn't really work, so all is well and good. Especially since SHA-2 is superior to SHA-1.
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I don't have a grudge against you, I have a grudge against smugness and arrogance masked behind lots of fluffy verbage. You claim to be intelligent, well, I'm intelligent enough to see what you are doing, and I don't like it. So I will call you out for it. If you want to assert that there is no power cost less than 6 cents per kilowatt hour in the United States, that's fine, I don't care enough to find out if that is true or not. The rest can be done without, especially when it leads you to making false grand generalizations which are inherently wrong, and cause you to later state were not what you really care about. Clear the fog indeed...
Please take your grudge against other people doing what they would like elsewhere.
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like i said, you can't know what effect a change in the input will have in the output; the number you're guessing is part of the input, you can't just say you got an output without showing the inputs you used to get there
Yes, I heard you. I believe 'why?' is a good follow up question. Your questions are rather odd, I believe the suggestions to read up on hashing make sense. Bitcoin relies on SHA256, a strong cryptographic protocol, which wouldn't be very strong if you could simply break it by guessing easy to solve things. The answer to why is more or less answered there, because it was designed to be difficult. And I will, but you do realize that a person (me) with virtually no programming experience (except for coding an RPG in Qbasic when I was 12) will have a very hard time understanding that WIKI stuff which makes reference to things I've never heard of? I'm not sure why you can't figure out a way to tell your computer to get around the problem. Like, if you know what a given output needs to be, why cant you figure out what the input needs to be? It is based on an algorithm after all. Your computer isn't just guessing values 'randomly,' since randomness is another word for causation (caused by randomness). Why can't you use the algorithm to determine what the relationship is between inputs and outputs such that you can determine why a certain input gives the output that it does? My guess is that when TiagoTiago says "you can't know what effect a change in the input will have in the output," he really means "it's INFEASIBLE to try to know what effect a change in the input will have in the output." It's gotta be possible. I don't mean to be a jerk, but cryptography is one of the most complex mathematical subjects on the planet currently. The reason why the wiki is full of difficult to understand terminology is because it's really difficult to understand, even just the concept. It sounds like you are imagining something simple like a code that maps AB...Z:ZY...A, so if you know you're looking for the word banana, you put in abcdef and get zyxwvu, and you can just keep playing with the input until they match up, that is wrong, and probably the first thing cryptographers worked on making sure didn't happen, because brute force would make that a simple process. As I said, your question "why won't it work" is because a lot of incredibly intelligent people worked really hard to make sure that such things wouldn't work. |
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Yes, I know what deflation is.
It's something the US Dollar won't be experiencing anytime soon.
More like 12% annual inflation. Ergo, everything goes up in price.
I'd like to see a scan (go ahead, black out your acct number, address, name, etc.) of an electric bill showing a rate lower than 6 cents a kWh, and I'll eat my hat.
In the case of tiered pricing, the total kWh would have to cost .06 each or less.
In other words, it doesn't matter if the first 100 kWh are 5 cents each -- nobody uses that little. You have to average the whole thing.
Same for on peak/off peak hours. Who cares if off-peak hours are 5.5 cents if on-peak hours are 9.5 cents? The question is, what would a mining rig cost you 24/7. So you have to AVERAGE it all.
what is your bill
------------------
how many kWh you used
Matthew
Why would it need to cost 6 cents or less? You didn't make a thread entitled "How to calculate if your cost is less than 6 cents per kWh", nor, if you are responding to me, did I state that my bill is 6 cents or less. Your thread is entitled "calculate the cost" and your statement was "it will never be lower than what is listed on this page". Your response to my response is 100% inappropriate. If you are trying to clarify your original statement, then phrase it in that manner. Otherwise all the points stand, power rates by state vary by locality, tiered pricing (that is NOT the same as off peak / on peak, which you brought up for no reason) for some states, commercial vs residential, and other factors certainly allow for people to pay more or less than a statewide average. Hence your assertion is fallacious. If you wish to refute someone claiming a specific power rate, speak to them specifically, a whole thread is not necessary. |
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Still not having a "huge" impact as of yet. Seems like things always speed up towards the end of a block cycle.
[18:15] <@gribble> Current Blocks: 136150 | Current Difficulty: 1563027.9961162 | Next Difficulty At Block: 137087 | Next Difficulty In: 937 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 6 days, 3 hours, 3 minutes, and 25 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 1659938.08690295
Looks like we might be in store for more of a difficulty bump than last round. So it goes.
Then again, difficulty rate of increase seems to have slowed as compared to the last several blocks. EG., it's not growing at 50% and more.
So long as it pays for the electricity and maybe a bit more, I think people will do it. That and so long as it remains semi-viable (eg., you can turn it into $ without too much difficulty). Would be nice to see more vendors getting involved.
I doubt many of us who are already "in" will be getting "out" anytime soon.
So find a seat and enjoy the ride.
All that being said, I am curious why network hash seems to rise as we approach the end a 2016 block round.
Not sure what algorithm gribble uses, but it's still too early to tell, we're about half way through the round, there have been a few spikes way above average hashrate, and a few days below. If this little blip continues (and my guess is it will not) we might see a larger bump than last time, but most likely not. If you notice gribbles current estimate is only 6%, which is far lower than last round (and likely not accurate, though it'd be nice). |
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like i said, you can't know what effect a change in the input will have in the output; the number you're guessing is part of the input, you can't just say you got an output without showing the inputs you used to get there
Yes, I heard you. I believe 'why?' is a good follow up question. Your questions are rather odd, I believe the suggestions to read up on hashing make sense. Bitcoin relies on SHA256, a strong cryptographic protocol, which wouldn't be very strong if you could simply break it by guessing easy to solve things. The answer to why is more or less answered there, because it was designed to be difficult. |
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Per your formula, I just do B/A ... essentially what I have to pay and that includes whatever taxes, fees, transportation fees, whatever fees, etc; and I'm not getting the rates on www.eia.gov. You never get the rates from the website; it's bogus rates and it hasn't include what our beloved government's fee for using electricity. Earn income ... income tax; after income tax, you have to pay utilities taxes. Double and triple taxations, don't you know that? It's all about tax till you die. So you're saying your rates are higher? That's fine. I'm just saying they can't be lower. For one thing, the website's data is 2 years old and I haven't heard about anything coming down in price in the last 2 years. Inflation only goes one direction -- up. "Up only goes one direction, up" Thanks for the axiomatic statement. There is something known as deflation however, and that goes only one direction too, down. Anyway... rates can be whatever people pay. It's so ridiculously obvious that people can pay less than what is on that chart that it is almost annoying to have to type it out. The data is a rate average. The pseudo-definition of average is taking various numbers and balancing them, requiring some be below the average if some are above. I will also mention something that is less obvious, some states use a tiered electrical pricing system. California for example is listed at a cost of 13.24 cents / kWh. This ignores the fact that the state was on a 5 tier system, that has been changed to a 3 tier system. Below X amount of kwh you pay Y cost, above X, you pay Z cost, and so on.  |
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buncha reactionaries... geez. Even a picture posted in this very thread of the spiky nature of the current entry. If in 12 or 24 hours the rate stays this high it might be something to go ape about, but for now it looks like the same anomaly as the 7/9 spike that didn't result from any massive new mining cluster coming online.
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I live in a predominately college town so this may not apply everywhere. A lot of landlords here offer some or all utilities included in rent as an incentive to the college kids. Being an apartment dweller at the end of my lease this summer, I specifically found an affordable place I could rent with utilities included. My landlord pays my electricity for me, therefore my he pays my rent for me! He can't be making any money off me, I imagine the power bill is pretty ridiculous with the AC and Bitcoin rigs running all day. Fortunately he can't do anything about it until my lease expires in 12 months.  If you have a big mining farm that eats up a few hundred dollars/month in electricity, it may be worth finding a cheap, electricity-included apartment just to house your rigs. Of course if you are spending that much per month in electricity, I imagine you've probably already considered this option as well as a hundred others. Just be prepared to get tossed out on your ass as soon as your lease expires.  amusing, albeit highly unethical. I personally don't think I would ever go this route, though I can understand it. I suppose that's the real free market for you. Anyway for the OP, where I live probably has some of the highest rates in the nation. It costs me roughly $6.67 to produce a bitcoin based on my last bills and calculating forward my current rate of generation. It will likely become unprofitable for me to mine at around 3million difficulty. Fortunately that will only occur when another ~11THash of computing power comes online, which I suspect will not be for a long while, unless someone busts out some crazy ASIC cluster, which will rape everyone anyway. EDIT: Not to be too complainy though, where I live it is currently 57F outside, in mid july, that's pretty darn good for a big fat bitcoin farm. No AC for me  |
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lolz @ "talent" for bitcoin mining. Because it takes a ton of talent to put together a computer. If you really had "talent" for mining you wouldn't claim to expect a 10% difficulty in 10-12 days, because that makes no sense. 14/10 = 1.4 or 40% increase. 14/12 = 1.17 or 17% increase. Huge difference, neither one being 10%.
I'm glad that 5830s are down from $150 to $140, yay for whoever. Your personal obsession with 5830s is not a hallmark of all bitcoin though. I like to watch 5870s personally, as they are close to or superior to 5830s in MHash/RigCost. And you're right, they look to be dropping in price as well. So we may not see more hash spikes in the near future. Whether that is good or bad... remains to be seen.
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From bitcoinwatch -- Bitcoins sent last 24h 3,368,696.34 BTC
Roughly half of all bitcoins in existence were transferred from here to there in the last day? Seems a little strange. I remember seeing a large uptick of transfers I noted right before the mtgox hack so I don't think it's totally un-noteworthy to pay attention to these things. If it's normal above board transferrs, what prompts such massive shifts?
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Not worthwhile to make a dedicated rig for, but in conjunctions with GPUs, might make an ok choice, depending on available motherboards. Decently low TDP too I believe.
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Most rooms have one or two 15-amp or 20-amp circuits though some older ones may be only 10-amp. One 15-amp circuit can handle about 1800w. If you have access to your circuit breaker, it should be listed there. Not really true, it completely depends on how the electrician wired your house. THe electrician in my house obviously hated me, as literally every room in the house is split across two 15A circuits (the same 2), except the kitchen which has like 100Amps. And there's a 20A breaker that's connected to nothing. THanks buddy  |
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I might try namecoin out with one of my cards that isnt as useful for mining bitcoins... maybe my gtx 570s
 This is where I get confused. For what purpose? namecoin is only a slightly modified bitcoin setup. It exchanges for less bitcoin currently, so regardless of what you use to mine it, you will be taking a loss. |
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I want to mine NMC asap as it appears to be quite profitable for me.I need someone who can tell me the nmc pool to join and how to setup in GUIMiner without requiring me to buy a domain name first.
I need to know.
You want to mine namecoin to buy a domain? Or to sell? It is more profitable to mine bitcoins if you are looking to cash out currently, otherwise if you want to set up a .bit domain then mining isn't a bad idea. Again, I stated above more or less the best resource I've found for information about namecoin, dot-bit.org The largest and oldest pool that also combines with a namecoin exchange is bitparking.com, it also has instructions on how to set up your mining clients. |
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Hmmm.. this means I'll have to set up namecoin in every computer rather than just the miner though.
I'll check out your pool, thanks.
No, download namecoind from wherever (I don't know if this is what talpan is referring to), I used dot-bit.org, follow the instructions to set it up, you can now point regular miners to the computer running namecoind and it will work as a localized pool (not that that really matters, it just makes life easier for you with a centralized wallet). I still don't really see any good explanation in this thread for people mining namecoins, the price jumped and then it dropped, so it's still a losing proposition. When the difficulty drops, bitcoin miners are going to rape namecoin, and flood the market so prices will certainly not go up in the near future (~1week), meaning if it's unprofitable now, it will only be more so in the near future. I suppose the people who like namecoin and mine simply to suppot the system make sense, but it still seems odd to see a large jump in those people in such a short period of time. Well good for you guys, it's nice to see people supporting a cause at their own loss. |
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Angelius has really played with my mind. I went from seriously debating his posts, to being annoyed by his refusal to respond to basic contrary evidence, to being very annoyed by seeing thread after thread of the same stuff, to just about downright hating him, and then back again to amusement when I see a new thread.
This thread has made me laugh, mostly the responses to it I suppose, I'm almost looking forward to these now. I will be sad if he manages to outlast his detractors though.
So anyway, difficulty is skyrocketing, bitcoin prices are plumetting, and the market will be flooded with GPUs as people desperately sell off their rigs jumping ship out of bitcoin... (and none of these will affect the other), hopefully I've encapsulated everything in one sentence. Go go go.
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