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一、比特币长期趋势关键：政策面
政策往往是主导行情的主要趋动，比特币上涨到8000元上方正是因为在相关国内政策真空期内随着比特币投资升温，媒体为吸引关注追求流行从下而上一直到CCTV持续出现大量的正面报道，让比特币在一夜之间增大了社会关注度，从而吸引大量投资资金流入，推动了比特币价格出现大幅上涨。
熟悉投机市场的人都知道价格和价值可以完全背离，比特币与股票一样其价格完全取决于资金供应量，媒体的报道使得资金供应量大增，而国人盲目及好赌的特性促成了当时国内价格远高于国外，世界比特币价格看中国这一怪像。
而2013年12月5日人民银行等五部委发布的关于防范比特币风险的通知就是明显的政策转向信号，正是这一政策使得国内媒体对比特币从先前的正面报道转而变为负面报道，先知先觉的投机资金开始不断抽离，比特币在大众中的印像也慢慢转为负面，狂热的市场开始变得理性，大家想的更多的不再是比特币什么时候涨到一万美元，而是比特币在目前是否值一千美元！随后的一系列政策的出现促使了比特币价格进行回归。
二、比特币中线趋势关键：投资大众心理
中国的文化是群起文化，对特立独行文化持不肯定态度。炒股票的时候开户一窝蜂，不开户的萧条持续时间同样不短，情绪是传染的。在比特币投资上也是一样，当媒体大量报道后，越来越多“不明真相”的群众纷纷投入到比特币投资大军中，在一千美元附近时大家可能发现了一个现像，就是小白越来越多，你所在公司内本来对这一块毫无兴趣的同事突然在某天告诉你他们也买了比特币了，这个时候就相当于在股市6000点附近你路过时听到一脸淳朴的大叔正兴奋地对身边的人说他开了户买了什么股票一样。我从1996年就接触股票，看过多次这种现像，每次看到听到我就为他们可惜，又会有个工薪家庭的财富会被消灭部份。
所以在进行投机时研究大众心理也同样必要，当你发现一些“不明真相”的群众仅仅因为它一直在涨的原因而来投资时，这个阶段就是疯狂时期，我们要做的就是成为一个参与博傻的人而不是真傻的人。
比特币相对其它投资来说更适合普通大众，因为其盘子小波动大，相对透明普通投资者也容易拿到第一手消息，无太多内幕存在且散户也能成功影响或带动盘面。正因为如此庄家也时常散布虚假操作来影响价格，当然随着投资者的成熟这个难度也会越来越大。聪明的投资者会利用大众对一些消息的心理预期或者预估有突发消息时对大众操作方向的影响来顺势进行操作。
三、比特币短线趋势关键：技术图形分析
很多人在分析走势时仅仅对着一张走势图划一大堆线，以期能看出后续走向。当然各种技术分析手段的确多少会有些用处，但有较大的局限性。而这类技术分析手段往往只能看短线，因为时间越长就会受到其它因素更多的影响，从而使准确度大大下降。
有些时候你画的线会很准确，刚好在这一点就止跌反弹了，你可能突然会对自己的技术分析水平大加佩服，其实，呵呵相信在这一时刻会有不少人跟你有同样的心情，其实越是简单基本的技术分析手段就越多人用，当你画的线与较多人趋同时，你划的线往往变得有效。
所以：
1.简单的分析方法可能更有用，或者说你更能把握。比如我只使用趋势线及二条均线，其它如技术指标，波浪理论等看过就扔了，因为并不适合我，或是说我根本不觉得这些东西有用。
2.记住一句：该涨不涨看跌，该跌不跌看涨。当你使用的分析方法或显而易见的后续走向与实现走势不符时说明其中有问题发生了，那么这时应该想想这句话！当然更好地把握这点需要长期的经验支持，并且这种现状往往会不停地出现转换，所以不要强求，不要钻牛角尖。
总结：要正确地把握大势需要以上三个方面综合分析考虑后才有机会产出高成功率趋势判断。
相信不少人看过以上文字后突然会有个想法出来，那就是好像蛮有道理，那你是不是操盘的话就不会有亏损了？是否能做到看对大赚，看错不亏？呵呵，天下不会有这种事，如果有人说他能做到的话不是骗子就是疯子，投资技巧是个不断学习的过程。高手只是在成功概率上偏高而已，而且在具体操作过程中一些人性弱点的体现或突发情况的发生都会让你的交易突然变遭。
说到这里不得不提一下职业投资者的素养。在比特币这个投资领域里很多人的言行与其持有的仓位有关，持币待涨的就只看只聊利好，平和的一条消息可以理解为利好，小利好可以理解成大利好，然后就100万美元了。有些空仓的朋友就只谈利空，或是要求交易所发利空，或是自己看到也不相信的假利空他都愿意与更多人进行分享。现在的比特币圈子的确很浮躁，太多的声音是为了背后的利益。
作为比特币这个高大上品种的投资人我们需要进一步提升自身素养，高素质的合格投资者是能够冷静判断（合理的投入与合理的仓位是能够冷静的前提）、有独立见解（有鲜明的交易理由，在没有变化前不会为市场上那些声音而改变）及良好的心态（在持有空头仓位时也能与大家谈论能涨到多少的旁观者心态）。
以上仅希望能为比特币投资人提供一些参考及为比特币社区增加一些中立的声音---796交易所 朱荣
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不提供人民币充值功能，那你和现在国内的交易平台有什么区别？
可以电汇以及更为方便的 第三方商家代充及兑现服务，您可以在淘宝搜索“796交易所” |
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随着国内监管措施的逐步到位，虚拟货币市场正处于非常时期，目前国内参与者中的大多数也就是纯粹的投机者们正面临着腥风血雨的考验。在此提醒大家冷静判断，保持良好心态，另外再加上一句我说过的：请使用输得起的钱进行投资！因为虚拟货币市场波动剧烈，不要动用买房钱、养家费，不要有赌一把的思想！
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目前的虚拟货币市场风雨飘摇，很多小伙伴们都在焦急地等待进一步消息。在这个动荡的时刻796交易所很愿意充当大家的避风港，欢迎大家在寻找到好的交易所前来796体验我们的服务！796交易所在最初就高瞻远瞩地注册在远离大陆的香港，并且拒绝人民币相关的兑换，目前主要提供虚拟货币相关的期货交易服务。
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关于股票：BTC-DICE-796 中止交易通知：BTC-DICE-796为BTC-Dice.com免费赠送的虚拟证券，总量不超过25万股，目前转入796交易所交易的有171102股。因目前该网站有较多传闻，为防范可能的风险，保护投资者利益，我们决定在4月5日中止此股票的交易，随后我们会尽快将股票退回到BTC-Dice.com。
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那请问如果大陆真的封禁 那如何从你们交易所把美金换成人民币 体现到大陆的银行卡
使用电汇或可联系淘宝第三方商人进行代充及兑现，速度非常快。 但是我没有信用卡 有没有你们官方的免费或者低手续费代理商？ 你可以在淘宝搜索 “796交易所” |
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那请问如果大陆真的封禁 那如何从你们交易所把美金换成人民币 体现到大陆的银行卡
使用电汇或可联系淘宝第三方商人进行代充及兑现，速度非常快。 |
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有香港注册公司的注册号码、公司地址（非邮政信箱） 吗？
796网络交易有限公司(注册号:1911752) 版权所有 |
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虚拟货币交易网站接二连三地被盗倒闭，用户应该如何选择？选择交易所只需二点：一、透明的100%用户资产准备金：以保证用户资金没有被盗、没有亏空、没有挪用。二、完善的100%无风险风控系统：以保证在未来出现意外行情时交易所不会产生亏损风险。这一切796交易所都为你想到并且为您做到了！
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796是目前中文网站中为数不多的仍在收取交易佣金的交易所
796是目前中文网站中为数不多的仍在收取交易佣金的交易所，不少用户希望我们能减免期货交易手续费。在这里我说几句：作为一家正规经营的交易所，我们没有其它盈利方式，交易佣金收入是我们的唯一。按目前计算每月只有不到100万的营收，在除去运营成本外还要预防可能出现的各种问题所造成的损失，也许一个小小的BUG就可以造成几十万的损失，这也是为什么从IPO后除流通股外我们没有分过红的原因。796的收入不像大家想像的那么多，目前796还不是回报期，但我们有的是时间。
虽然赚钱的方式有很多，如果我们想多赚些钱大可全免费，把成交量做大或刷大到世界第一，随后时不时杀次猪就可以了。但这不是我喜欢的赚钱方式，虽然那样会多赚很多！所以希望支持796的朋友们理解我们，另外单向0.1%-0.03%的佣金收费真心不高，希望大家不要将796与国内浮燥的市场进行直接对比！这也是我们没有在国内注册，不进行人民币交易的其中一个原因。
796交易所的期货交易结算规则里有这么一条：完成合约结算后，在合约期内未成交的爆仓单（爆仓后挂入市场的交易单，未成交相当于796交易所持有）产生的亏损，将按比例在所有净盈利用户帐户中分摊扣除。 粗看这条好像不太合理，实际上正是公平的体现。
在796交易的用户享受到的是亏损比例达100%时才会引发爆仓，同时这个头寸会按爆仓价再挂入市场，在结算时如还未成交就会出现系统亏损，这时就会让这个交割周期内有净盈利的用户按比例分摊，目的是为了让一个交割周期内所有用户的盈亏相等。像本周LTC期货交易因一波单边下跌而出现12.43%的分摊，被分摊到的用户会觉得心中不舒服，但要清楚的是这不是我们交易所的收入，只是补缺系统亏损，也正因为有这个机制，大家才能享受到亏损比例达100%时才会引发爆仓的待遇，另外更重要的是这样不会引发连环爆仓的情况！
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The Mt. Gox fallout served as a warning to all Bitcoin investors. Ironically, early enthusiasts for the five-year-old cryptocurrency were drawn to its revolutionary ideals of transparency and a lack of central or official control. And now, it's the lack of transparency that brings 127,000 creditors of Mt. Gox to their knees.
Unlike many cash exchanges which still facilitate most of the trades, the cryptocurrency futures exchange pioneer 796 Exchange is making bigger steps to become a more open and transparent transaction venue for cryptocurrencies hedgers and speculators.
"Since Mt. Gox's fallout, we've been seriously thinking about how to make things even more transparent for our users," said Zhu Rong, the founder and CEO of 796 Exchange, "while keeping our users’ privacy intact, of course."
Making transaction logs available to independent third party audits is simply out of the question for obvious reasons, such as the sheer volume just to begin with. Making only the cold storage data available, on the other hand, cannot offer insight to the book of the exchange because the asset percentage it represents is unknown.
"Like everything else, where there's a will, there's a way," said Zhu, who was happy to describe his firm's new platform design. "We decided to make both the cold storage address and the top 100 BTC/LTC asset holding accounts public. The amount of cryptocurrency in cold storage accounts for 80% of the total, and the rest is kept in the hot wallet. In addition, the top 100 BTC assets holders can have the added peace of mind by verifying their BTC assets through publicly available data. These holders are listed on the Rank and their assets accounts for roughly 80% of the BTC assets held by all members of 796 Exchange. The Rank will display only the last 2 digits of the users' IDs for the sake of privacy. The Rank updates at 10:00 am (GMT+8) every Saturday. Asset balance is taken after the settlement. The balance equals to the amount of wallet balance, plus the futures account balance, and plus the quantity of BTC/USD unexecuted (pending) orders. BTC cold storage address and BTC asset holding Rank are made public first. We need a few more weeks to prepare a secure workflow to output and display the rest of the data. The USD deposit amount is negligibly small in comparison, so we won’t post it for now."
796 Exchange has been adhering to professionalizing and legitimizing the operation of cryptocurrency futures exchange. The founding management team is vehement in running a No Dealing Desk (NDD) price discovery service for the clients. In other words, neither the company staff nor the company itself is allowed to take trading position against their clients.
Although many exchanges are taking extreme measures to guard their clients' assets, it is surprising that some are even giving friendly advice to their clients to withdraw the inactive portion of the trading fund.
"I find it extremely rare during my career in the financial trading industry that any market facilitator encourages his clients to withdraw fund," said Terry Li, 796 Exchange newly appointed SVP. "I still vividly remember [that] one of 796 [Exchange's] clients retold the amazing chat session he had with one of the customer service staff Ryan during which Ryan suggested that he withdraw most of the inactive assets. It was actually a timely advice for the client because the BTC price was shooting over $1000 and he had 2700 BTC stored away [at 796 Exchange]."
The cryptocurrency movement is gaining user recognition in many developed countries despite the controversy. 796 Exchange is striving to gain mainstream recognition for cryptocurrency.
Only time will tell.
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The Mt. Gox fallout served as a warning to all Bitcoin investors. Ironically, early enthusiasts for the five-year-old cryptocurrency were drawn to its revolutionary ideals of transparency and a lack of central or official control. And now, it's the lack of transparency that brings 127,000 creditors of Mt. Gox to their knees.
Unlike many cash exchanges which still facilitate most of the trades, the cryptocurrency futures exchange pioneer 796 Exchange is making bigger steps to become a more open and transparent transaction venue for cryptocurrencies hedgers and speculators.
"Since Mt. Gox's fallout, we've been seriously thinking about how to make things even more transparent for our users," said Zhu Rong, the founder and CEO of 796 Exchange, "while keeping our users’ privacy intact, of course."
Making transaction logs available to independent third party audits is simply out of the question for obvious reasons, such as the sheer volume just to begin with. Making only the cold storage data available, on the other hand, cannot offer insight to the book of the exchange because the asset percentage it represents is unknown.
"Like everything else, where there's a will, there's a way," said Zhu, who was happy to describe his firm's new platform design. "We decided to make both the cold storage address and the top 100 BTC/LTC asset holding accounts public. The amount of cryptocurrency in cold storage accounts for 80% of the total, and the rest is kept in the hot wallet. In addition, the top 100 BTC assets holders can have the added peace of mind by verifying their BTC assets through publicly available data. These holders are listed on the Rank and their assets accounts for roughly 80% of the BTC assets held by all members of 796 Exchange. The Rank will display only the last 2 digits of the users' IDs for the sake of privacy. The Rank updates at 10:00 am (GMT+8) every Saturday. Asset balance is taken after the settlement. The balance equals to the amount of wallet balance, plus the futures account balance, and plus the quantity of BTC/USD unexecuted (pending) orders. BTC cold storage address and BTC asset holding Rank are made public first. We need a few more weeks to prepare a secure workflow to output and display the rest of the data. The USD deposit amount is negligibly small in comparison, so we won’t post it for now."
796 Exchange has been adhering to professionalizing and legitimizing the operation of cryptocurrency futures exchange. The founding management team is vehement in running a No Dealing Desk (NDD) price discovery service for the clients. In other words, neither the company staff nor the company itself is allowed to take trading position against their clients.
Although many exchanges are taking extreme measures to guard their clients' assets, it is surprising that some are even giving friendly advice to their clients to withdraw the inactive portion of the trading fund.
"I find it extremely rare during my career in the financial trading industry that any market facilitator encourages his clients to withdraw fund," said Terry Li, 796 Exchange newly appointed SVP. "I still vividly remember [that] one of 796 [Exchange's] clients retold the amazing chat session he had with one of the customer service staff Ryan during which Ryan suggested that he withdraw most of the inactive assets. It was actually a timely advice for the client because the BTC price was shooting over $1000 and he had 2700 BTC stored away [at 796 Exchange]."
The cryptocurrency movement is gaining user recognition in many developed countries despite the controversy. 796 Exchange is striving to gain mainstream recognition for cryptocurrency.
Only time will tell.
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