Speaking of minnows I have an idea I would like to moot with some of the regulars on here. I will collect my thoughts and PM some of you in the next few days. Nice to see us inching closer for an attack on 300. Bears must be nervous  You do realize that bears can be temporarily leveraged long too? The difference is that bears shall take their profits at the next top, without waiting for a delusional moon. It is more the effect on the trading accounts of leveraged shorting a rise from 219 to 215, or more recently from 273 to 295 that might be more relevent to the complete absence of a vocal number of previous posters of a furry disposition. Some will have timed it right but it's much harder when you cannot rely on the confirmation bias of being with trend. Everyone is a genius in a bull market, right? And every bear is a genius in a bear market - until the trend changes. |
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The bears arent nervous, theyre gone. The bear market is over.
Tarmi was online today but hasn't posted since July 8th. You can tell things are different now. The price is within a few dollars of a critical juncture and this place is dead. Truly this is the end of a bear market, sheer boredom whilst the price slowly rises. do you mean: sheer boredom whilst the bear trolls are gradually replaced by the bull train and moon trolls, while the price increases I mean sheer boredom because anyone that was going to sell dumped at 160 or 220 or at any point higher in the last 18 months. The only people left are those that are still buying or are waiting to buy in. Even the short interest has waned to below 10k. None of that means we move higher of course. Should we break up towards 400 then you may well be right |
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The bears arent nervous, theyre gone. The bear market is over.
Tarmi was online today but hasn't posted since July 8th. You can tell things are different now. The price is within a few dollars of a critical juncture and this place is dead. Truly this is the end of a bear market, sheer boredom whilst the price slowly rises. |
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Speaking of minnows I have an idea I would like to moot with some of the regulars on here. I will collect my thoughts and PM some of you in the next few days. Nice to see us inching closer for an attack on 300. Bears must be nervous |
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Voted yes. But how much do we have to go up in order to define it as a "launch". New ATH? Or is up to the mid 300's acceptable?
Long term I'm bullish as always, short term I do not know, but things feel pretty optimistic.
at this point it isn't realistic thinking in terms of new ath's. if we manage to realize a stable growth to $400 we can consider that a great achievement. Did you look at the chart, Randy? None of us know the future but stable growth isn't in the DNA of bitcoin  Steady degrowth seems to be summary of last one year. Sure, zoom out |
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Voted yes. But how much do we have to go up in order to define it as a "launch". New ATH? Or is up to the mid 300's acceptable?
Long term I'm bullish as always, short term I do not know, but things feel pretty optimistic.
at this point it isn't realistic thinking in terms of new ath's. if we manage to realize a stable growth to $400 we can consider that a great achievement. Did you look at the chart, Randy? None of us know the future but stable growth isn't in the DNA of bitcoin |
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Bitcoin was already in a bear market on that date.
A look at the charts from January 2015 tells a different story.
The big dump was all correlated. Since then it is has been record low volatility (thus not relevant) up until the recent rise up to test the long-term trend line at $315 which proved to be resistance again. It is all over. $20 here we come... ...unless we break decisively over $320 and run up and beyond $400. A 40% rise is low volatility? So your argument seems to have evolved from 'free money' because 'reason' to unless the price breaks resistance from last weeks yearly high and marches higher, then perhaps then because 'reason' the price may crash to 20 dollars? I think I liked you better when you were just an eloquent bonkers conspiracy theorist retired programmer. Making wild contrarian price predictions is a fool's game, moreover if you drag any unsuspecting innocent into playing along. You still haven't provided proof you are even short. |
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If history is our guide, in this sideways market we should wait for a big dump in the daily chart which is reversed instantly. Then we will be off to the horses.
Could take months to happen.
History rarely repeats, but rhymes instead. |
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Bitcoin was already in a bear market on that date.
A look at the charts from January 2015 tells a different story.
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I want to short it but I've no idea how much % of my roll I should short to avoid getting margin called and when to begin the shorting position. According to armstrong the gold incoming crash is coming the week of the 10 of august right ? So Maybe we all should the 9th of august before opening our positions ?
@TPTB: when you say "The higher it goes, the less margin you need to short it and not get a margin call due to volatility to the upside, before the implosion. Another gift from perma-bull-tards." is it because right now btc has only 10% upside max (315/288) ?
If you are going to short, you have to allow for getting the timing slightly wrong. And price might move against you for a while. So you have to decide how much upside in the price you are willing to protect with margin and thus how much money you risk losing if it moves over that price. I can't guarantee you the price won't go higher than $315. I was going to put up enough margin to allow for $385 before I would get stopped out and lose the margin. Also no one can make a 100% guarantee that BTC is headed lower. Nothing is 100%. There is always some probability we are wrong. I think the probability is low, but it isn't 0%. The safest is to sell BTC for dollars and not short. Shorting is for those who need to risk. Right on time for the Sept/Oct turn of the ECM (and the computer model prediction of massive volatility in the Euro from November until January), Armstrong's prediction the Fed would raise rates. South Africa already did. Other emerging markets will have to raise to protect their currencies and forex reserves.
So there is your factor to drive debt contagion. Rising interest rates.
Euro will collapse below parity dragging gold and BTC down.
We are going to shake out (pauperize) all those Bitards who have been criticizing me and Armstrong for the past 2 years. Wise crypto-currency investors will sell out to dollars here around $300 or (if they can stomach the risk) even short BTC.
Serious question: why do you think btc is correlated with gold or other commodities? Armstrong may be correct about a macroeconomic cycle but get bitcoin completely wrong. Oh and I think you should make it clear you are not being highly irresponsible and advising people to leverage short bitcoin. |
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So your analysis is a drastic fall next week, huh?  |
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Multiple Choice Question:
Do you see bitcoin in the future as:
A) a scaling peer to peer network with ultra cheap transactions, for anyone globally to use, with bitcoin functioning as internet cash, avoiding financial intermediaries or banks.
B) a settlement layer for banks, fin tech companies and early adopters, with a low volume expensive to transact upon blockchain
C) all of the above, and more It's a trick question (false dilemma fallacy), because of the duality of big-B Bitcoin (the first successful e-cash implementation) and small-b bitcoin (blockchain technology). Small-b bitcoin has already forked, in the form of alts, so as to ensure ultra cheap p2p global tx for all mankind. Big-B Bitcoin, still in its early life cycle, is in the phase where it distinguishs itself and diverges from Bitcoin-like blockchains, on the way to becoming the (ultra-secure, expensive, low volume) Mother of All settlement layers and global reserve e-cash.The commonplace category error plaguing us at the moment results from failing to recognize this bifurcation (and reading Satoshi's Whitepaper in that context), or refusing to countenance the existence of alts (IE small-b bitcoin) because of some nutty Maximalist Monopolist Fundamentalist Supremacist ideological stance. Unless you expect bitcoin to have hundreds of sidechains (not altcoins) performing 'ultra cheap p2p global tx for all mankind' then your argument is flawed. The bitcoin chain only has value because it is first and because people expect it to retain (or increase) it's value in the future through increased (or continuing) adoption. Early adopters might not see that this is a problem if bitcoin remains limited or crippled by a small blocksize but to those of us who just missed that early boat and joined the party in 2013 or later it is an issue. The reason being that to all non-early adopters the speculative value of bitcoin over alternate blockchains is based in part upon the expectation of a significantly growing userbase and ultimately exchange price of each bitcoin. If it becomes clear that bitcoin is not going to scale or remain the cheapest blockchain out there for new users then it won't just be new users who migrate to alternate chains, it will be the value that early adopters enjoy currently, too. Edit: Pro-tip: lightning is vapour currently so wind your neck in.. |
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It is 5 year from now and the price cannot reach 1x,xxx $ i think it is impossible,
It will be maybe only 1,000 USD
The price was $1200 dollars in 2013. Bitcoin ecosystem has since had 2/3 of a billion dollars of VC capital invested and is only now starting to open up as an investment asset in the form of ETN's and hopefully soon ETF's (COIN). Stay safe, but revise your expectations.. |
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Small blocks equal small minds.
lol, small blocks equal smart minds. (contrary big and stupid) PLease explain how bitcoin will proceed over the next few years with the blocksize fixed at 1mb and continue to be successful Odalv. |
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I cannot wait until we fork this problem away.
Yep. interesting reddit post that sums up the fork in the road debate nicely. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3ef6h1/bitcoin_ideology_do_you_vote_for_a_or_b/Multiple Choice Question:
Do you see bitcoin in the future as:
A) a scaling peer to peer network with ultra cheap transactions, for anyone globally to use, with bitcoin functioning as internet cash, avoiding financial intermediaries or banks.
B) a settlement layer for banks, fin tech companies and early adopters, with a low volume expensive to transact upon blockchain
The root of the issue is that option "B" Bitcoin as a high-fee high-value settlement layer, without "A" scaling and widespread growing ecosystem usage happening first, is economic illiteracy of the first order. "B" by itself is simply a wet-dream of Blockchain Economics central planner fanbois. If the 1MB is allowed to crowd out regular user tx, not just spam, then fees will plateau and inexorably decline amid an ongoing PR disaster. Fortunately rescue from the 1MB4EVR idiocy seems likely. Gavin is fixing the cpu-intensive bloat-tx attack threat, and then it looks like the change to an 8MB block limit will be offered to the community. I hope that Gavin and Jeff team up for this. When I first learned about Bitcoin it was Satoshi, Gavin, Jeff and Sipa who were commit access Core Dev (though Satoshi was already the Silent One). If it takes just two of them to get Bitcoin back on the track to success - then all power to them! Hey hey, as early adopter, I resemble that! Yes that was a good reddit post |
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I wouldn't expect to see gold go far below 1000 or touch the 1980's high.
If it does I will probably start buying some gold again. When bitcoin passes gold then it becomes interesting regarding the gold:bitcoin allocation in a portfolio. I dumped all my metals in 2011 but will probably reacquire some when the markets go pop.
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While none of us know the future, I'm bullish on BTC. It may not be so good in the short term, but multi month/year I think it will do us proud. I'm one of those who wants to see a slow and steady increase and no pump.
I really don't like the idea of gambling on margin (I wish that option didn't exist), and for selfish reasons I say that because I already have my investment back and am speculating from a future possibilities position, so emotionally it's easier for me than some. I am 'hodl' ing though because I believe in it, and won't back down whatever the price, even to zero, and suspect I'm not alone.
So far the OP seem to know the opposite of the future. |
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Everyone just waiting for the inevitable big buy which triggers an avalanche of leveraged longs after 300. If we retake 300 and put in a higher high then even I will probably take a large leveraged position |
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I genuinely think all critique against aztec will be silenced if you just take a look at the books he has written. Take a real hard look.
I did once. Unusual stuff!! |
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I think this thread can be summarised as: I bought in!
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