1a/ PlanB said his chart is based on on-chain signals. Perhaps, he's looking at BTC's RVT (Realized Value to Transaction Volume) ratio, which can be used to track BTC's market tops & bottoms & locate what phase BTC is in between these 2 points. RVT ratio has been atypically low.
1b/ The current RVT ratio is at points that are 1 year away from the cycle peak in the last 2 cycles. If this rhymes, the cycle peak could be at least 6 months away. Note the green line of the chart (RVTS) shows the inverse of RVT ratio.
1c/ Why is RVT ratio low? This metric is based on BTC's network daily transaction volume & it hasn't climbed on a continuous path as in the 2017 bull phase, but has rolled over during mid-cycle correction. It's reversed course & set a new ATH.
1d/ Although BTC network daily transaction volume is high, the ratio of realized BTC value to transaction volume has been low.
The RVT ratio is expected to increase going forward righting the course of this metric in a typical BTC bull phase.
Why would BTC peak in Dec 2021?
2a/ First, we look at the BTC S2F Deflection chart. You can see the symmetry between the current cycle & the past cycles.
The timing of the S2F deflection dips at the mid-cycle correction & low of the CTM Wave 1 in all 3 cycles is in almost perfect alignment.
2b/ Note the pattern of the BTC S2F deflection in the current cycle looks very similar to that in the 2017 bull phase. In 2017, it took BTC 94 days from the 2nd S2F deflection low (low of CTM Wave 1) to reach cycle peak.
Thus, if history rhymes, BTC may peak around 12/23/21.
3a/ Finally, we look at the BTC S2FX model fractals. The current S2FX model fractal looks similar to that in past cycles, especially the one in 2013 if we examine the appearance of the latest orange dot & compare this to past cycles.
3b/ If we overlay the 2013 & 2017 fractals from the appearance of the orange dot to the red dots at cycle peak in the past 2 cycles on the 2021 chart, BTC will also peak in December 2021. Cycle peak price is $200K-$350K.
4/ Summary:
1. Thanks PlanB for confirming there will be no lengthening of cycle in this BTC epoch.
2. Though PlanB concludes based on on-chain signals the current bull phase has at least 6 more months, I think BTC will peak in December 2021 with peak price around $200K-$350K.
https://twitter.com/AllenAu11/status/1444363363593515008
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