I don't want to go back again to that doomed channel...   

I honestly don't get this chart:



What exactly does "Cumulative Return for investing on a specific day" really mean ?

Dollar cost averaging on a specific day with the samer dollar amount for several weeks ??

The market is pretty depleted currently I would say. It is a time correction (sideways) for now but overall bullish. Here are a few points to consider if you trading short term:

- the price stays above SMA50, SMA100, SMA200 and they confirm the bullish trend
- the price bounced from the support zone formed by SMA50 and SMA100
- we got a new swing low which is higher than the previous one
- the price broke the local downtrend line

We are out of the downwarding channel in the monthly. To reach the $5k area, we would have to break back in to the channel and move all the way down to the bottom of it, and that we have to do in the halving pregnant headline area. Won't happen.

I really hope you're not betting significant money on this $5k idea.

I would like to comment on your price points:

-6.4k: strong buyers support and smart money accumulation - I agree
-10.5k: possible high resistance level, I agree, but could be smashed rather easily. Just look at the 2019 bull run.
-13.5k: I don't see this zone as a "make it or break it"-ATH indicator.

We have so little trading volume above 13.5k, that I would consider everything above it as "no mans land".

I believe we saw the lowest prices already = the double W-bottom at around $6500. We are out of the channel for good and have a lot of time to break through resistances on the way up and to establish new support levels.

But it probably will be a slower rise, and don't expect new all time highs this year. Could be a slow 2017 rise, or even slower.

Sideways consolidation (=time correction) it is. I also expect some bumps in a tiny trading range, which is not really worth to trade. Weaker hands have the chance to sell their sub $7k coins for a nice profit, but the market will definitely move higher from here.

One of many problems of newly investors are that they cut their successful runners very short and sell way to early. You have to ask yourself always "Why am I invested?" "Did we reach the highest adoption?" "What other investments are there, which could be more successful?"

I would like to diversify to the normal stock market for a long time already, but I just don't find anything we the same growth potential or interesting characteristics like Bitcoin. So there is no true "profit target" when I would sell. I guess my life expenses would rise a little with significantly higher Bitcoin prices.

This is however unrelated to my small trading stack, there I am trading rather aggressive for swings and sentiments.

The whole crypto sphere is already using that pattern, including to some altcoins who also have a halvin schedule like Litecoin. It rallies always pretty hard, just to fall down to previous levels. However that is always a good time to trade and make some more Bitcoins.

The LTC/BTC chart pump and dump due to its halving on the 5th of August.2019:

I'm on the same page. Additionally I like that several high profile speculators are on the same line of thinking.

For example, dmwardjr strongly expects continue upward pressure:


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg53653049#msg53653049

Who knows in the end ? There were many scientific paper trying to understand and value correctly the sum of 100.000.000 satoshi (=1 Btc ).

There were papers giving 1 Btc the long-term value equivalent to a regular 1-family house. Thus it would put a level of $400k at the end of the coming bull run not that far out of stretch.

However, I don't really believe that, due to the diminishing returns that the market volatility experienced till now due to the much larger market size. But a low 6-figures range is not that far of my imagination horizons.

We witnessed already so many 100% gains in the last bull runs. It is very reasonable to expect more of these gains, IF we are in the next bull run. Just look how easily we went x3 in the pump last year, while breaking every resistance like it was a wall out of paper. So guys, don't sell to early when the real next bull starts. You're going to bite your own ass when you're left behind while the train continues.

And until now, halving brought always positive price trends after it happened. So it is wise to assume that history will repeat itself again.

Gold has been around forever and has taken full advantage of the Lindy effect, it has always had value while Bitcoin is still relatively new.

In terms of function of money, Bitcoin is equal or superior to Gold, however in terms of age, Bitcoin is one of the newest types of money while Gold is the oldest.

A 100% gain is very reasonable in the halving year. It would still leave us below of the ATH, this way we have plenty of time and momentum in 2021 for the insane gains of the next ATH.

Likewise the CME futures were a pretty disappointment from the beginning with low volumes and the other futures from CBOE who already got shut down. New systems need to time to be adopted by the big players and now CME seems to be in charge of the market direction, and on top of that introduced more options to trade with leverage some magic dollar number of a bitcoin.

I hope Bakkt will still catch on, due to the much higher soundness of their service idea.

Back to topic: My entertainment levels are pretty satisfied with these large 5 min candle swings up and down. Pretty enjoyable to watch as long as we continue to move up.

Something to consider: Satoshi may have always realized that an appreciating asset like BTC will tend not to be spent but used as a wealth store. But had such a vision been made explicit at a time when it was launched, I doubt the coin would have gained any traction at all. There is actually a need for an illusion to users that some tangible use like payments is the reason behind needing the coin. I think the initial bootstrapping of Bitcoin to a value after which it gained traction as a wealth store was down to that deliberate ploy of playing down the factor that later would be the key reason for the value.

You can see most alts struggling because from their inception, people now tend to see them as ways of making money and that proves a serious hurdle in them moving away from a pump and dump playground in their infancy. Monero folks I think realized this and tried their best through the campaign of asking people to use and not just buy the coin. But it's hard now to get people to see new coins as something more than wealth making assets.

Now is a better time I guess. Let's wait for where we settle after the dip and recover.

Hopefully we stop above the downward channel and just reconsolate somewhere >$8.6k. It's a sharp red cliff if you look at the chart.

Well, there is your chance to buy the dip.

It is good to see us roaring so much, but some altcoins almost tripled in value already. That is quite hard to grasp. The increase is also a good signal because I am reading (even in oldschool news paper(!)) that bitcoin is performing quite spectacular, so even the AverageJoe will get the news that Bitcoin is contradictionary not dead (yet haha).


The halving is to follow. And if we look back to the past, the halving was always an incredible moment in time. Any one here remembers the block halving party in Tel Aviv ? That was some fun to watch when they were mining their blocks.

I don't see a psychological cap for the price. I rather think our heads will be blown off when the largest speculators are starting to dip their toes into Bitcoin waters.