All of the complaining about those who got rich on Bitcoins because they were in on it early can end now.
We are all early adopters at this point. When it was at $17/BTC people were pining for the days when the price was $1-$2/BTC.
People will look back on this price and wish again that they had bought at the dip. Bitcoin is here to stay, the technology is sound and has proven itself.
If it is just the tiniest of chunks of the US dollar currency, it would need to be worth several thousand dollars per Bitcoin in order to sustain its use.
With banks starting to charge just to make a transaction, their customers will seek alternatives.
Bitcoin is that alternative.
Very good observation. What's really funny is all those complaining about the early adopter issue are those that are probably abandoning the project during these times. This whole experience sure has made me appreciate the early adopter more. They got everything they deserved. |
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Shit, Bitcoin is dead, down to 2.3 dollars, jesus, what a waste of a cool system.
Funny, the farther the price goes down, the more excited I get. And I just purchased a whole bunch. And my optimism in Bitcoin has never been brighter. The price needed to come down to be sustainable. I have another order at $2 A much bigger order at $1.5 And all my bitcoin investing money goes in at $1.00 |
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Bitcoin remains king - I have yet to hear a proposal for a better-designed currency, and to surpass Bitcoin would require not just marginal improvements, but vast ones.
+100 For that single reason I've decided to only invest time and money into Bitcoin. I'm in full support of forking and alternate currencies, but Bitcoin will be the only one that gets my money and the majority of my time. |
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I've pledged.
I will be donating.
Ron Paul is my hero.
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I just want to make it clear that shorting bitcoin should not be equated with pessimism or negativity.
Bears can turn Bulls and Bulls can turn Bears.
The price was too high to be sustained with the current injection rate + difficulty.
The ability to short has been a blessing to get us back to prices that can be sustained long term.
I do agree that current shorters should throttle off quite a bit - I definitely wouldn't be shorting on margin right now.
They should also start considering going long term bullish. That's where I'm at right now with current prices.
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More news that equates Bitcoin's success with its price. That's misleading. For a currency that is peer to peer and that is grass root sponsored, I would have to say that it is doing EXTREMELY well. The sooner this crash finishes and we can reach prices that are sustainable the better. It goes to show (in my opinion), that the number one weakness of any currency of this nature is big money causing a pump and dump type scenario. We've been pumped and we've been dumped! And the media has helped out big time by giving us a lot of positive coverage on the upside and a lot of negative coverage on the down side. The best we can do is learn from this experience and profit on the next wave (upside and downside) if it happens (second generation of early adopters) which will help such a scenario not to be as severe. The media will never get behind this in a long term positive way. They have an agenda. Government, banks, and BIG media are all one big happy marriage and it wants nothing to do with our project of freedom. |
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(C) Each user of the reference client, which is copyrighted in every country, is required to first register their real-world identity with a central service, and sign a legally-binding contract promising that, in exchange for a perpetual license to use the reference client or any other software derived from the reference client, they will, in perpetuity, accept 1 BC2 from anyone in place of at least US$1 worth of any existing sovereign currency that is owed them (based on the exchange rates on the date that the BC2 block chain was started). International patents are also secured, to ensure that other clients following the protocol but not derived from the reference client and not subject to its licensing agreement cannot be distributed.
...
Any thoughts?
Kill it with fire. I returned a $200 printer, possibly a $400 dollar printer sold "at cost", because the box claimed that by using the printer I was subject to a patent license (which required using the print catridge exactly once, then mailing it back to Lexmark). I now avoid the store I bought the printer at becuase they are willing to sell products that impose unreasonable conditions on their customers. Bitcoin is still experimental. If bitcoin really is good, a pyscological price barrier won't last long. If you think there is such a barrier and that bitcoins are undervalued, you should be buying them up cheap. I'm saying the psychological barrier is currently preventing Bitcoin from growing as much as it otherwise would be able to. If we redefined the standard BTC unit to a smaller one, it might indeed help the situation. It's the same reason why companies do stock splits - because a stock priced at $200/share looks frighteningly "expensive" to the casual observer at first glance, regardless of whether it is actually overvalued in terms of fundamentals like market cap or earnings per share. They do stock splits because stocks are not commonily divisible. You own 1 share or more or you don't own any. Not a problem with bitcoin. If the price get to high I can just say "I'll buy that there rolex for 100 milli-BTC". |
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Alright. Alright. Alright.
I will Confess. I have $10K set aside for bitcoin investing. No kidding!
I will personally guarentee prices will never go lower than 10K/21 Million = 0.047 Cents.
The best part about, it guarentess that I will be buying at the bottom evertime.
Any one care to sell?
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Did you here what he said? regulate the market of bitcoins... lol, are you on crack?
Nope, for example, if I had $ 20 million I'd be able to guarantee today's price for everyone. What is this if not a kind of regulation? Nope. That's charity. |
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I agree with the OP that the current money injection rate couldn't support the high prices over the last few months; however, there are two competing perspectives on this issue.
1) Centralized solution
2) Decentralized solution
Advocating that we fork the chain or create an alternate currency simply because Bitcoin does not meet someone's expectations is a mentality of centralized control. It is impossible to create a truly decentralized currency like Bitcoin and have it counter all the irrational market decisions we as individuals make. If we changed the injection rate now (by forking or new alt-currency) we would only be doing it again down the road (another fork) and this is nothing more than centralized control. The reality: few would follow or such actions would simply divide, counquor, and destory all decentralized currencies.
The Decentralized solution: trust the market to sort it self out. Those that reconize this problem should short it helping the price to acheive a value that can be sustained faster.
Those proping up the price from its fundamental value will be punished. Those that helped it acheive it fundamental price are rewarded. Why wouldn't you want it any other way than that?
That's what free markets are all about. Trying to create a currency where no one goes unpunished for irrational decisions is impossible without centralized control and a huge loss of freedom.
The money injection rate is not the problem. The problem is all the people that made the irrational decisions to pump it up and sustain it over the last few months. Let them be punished and hopefully they will have the humility to rid themselves of their greed, their fear, and learn a lesson so they do not do it again. (My self included - I've had an expensive lessen).
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Deleted Post: Sorry Wrong thread
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What is confusing is that people are declaring it dead because it can't maintain a constant price after an increase over 1000 times? I really don't understand this. Somebody please tell me how Bitcoin is suffering right now? From what I am seeing it has had great progress. I don't see anything to complain about. The volatility makes it less useful as a medium of exchange. If you accept 100 bitcoins in exchange for some hardware and the next day those 100 bitcoins are worth 15% less, you may wind up taking a loss on the transaction. This matters because you typically can't pay your employees, pay your utility bills, pay your rent, or pay your suppliers in bitcoins. Otherwise, the price of a bitcoin measures a whole bunch of things mixed together. One of the things it measures is the collective opinion of the long-term viability of bitcoins as a medium of exchange. But that's mixed in with so many other factors that you really draw too many conclusions. I think a lot of people just assume that a high price is good and a low price is bad without really thinking too much about it. They confuse the price of a bitcoin with things like the price of a company's stock. That's a good point. I don't think stable prices will ever be Bitcoin's strong point; however, this weakness is completly offset with its ease to take it to market and sell just as quick as you receive it. So, if I receive payment in bitcoin and choose to wait before selling. That loss is my fault and not neccessarily bitcoin as a currency. The free market is already providing even better solutions than this. MtGox has a merchant service where you can receive payment in bitcoins that are immediatly converted to USD - there's no loss. In my opionion, People tagging Bitcoin as dead comes from the continued decline in bitcoin prices. For me, bitcoin prices comming back to reality is a huge win for Bitcoin. It went way past its fundamental value. Now the market is more mature and you can short. hopefully, such a tragedy of super fast rising prices will never happen again. Every one sees the failing pricess as the disease, but no one was complaining when prices were sky rocketing. What goes up irrationally must come back down and speculators are punished. Can't be too harsh though, I've lost a couple grand, but that was my expensive learning experience and I hold no anomosity towards this brilliant technology. On second thought, maybe so many are tagging it as dead because they are too prideful to reconize they screwed up. I know it took me a while. |
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Who here put their live savings into bitcoin?
oh gawsh
The market is mature enough to short. How much of your savings did you use to short bitcoin? If none, then next time put your money where your mouth is. Life savings into bitcoin is unwise, but I do have my mind and heart invested fully to make it succeed. |
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Why close the doors? Why not sell the Xchange?
I'll buy for $500! Serious!
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Current difficulty 7,255,634,282,020,860 hashes per block.
2MH/watt * 60 * 60 * 1000 = 7200000 MH / kWh
7,255,634,282,020,860 / ( 7200000 * 1000 * 1000 ) = 1007 kWh per block. 9 cents per kWh = $90.63 per block. $90.63 / 50 = ~$1.80 per coin.
So if I'm pulling ~1550 from the wall for rigs and cooling and getting ~3120 Mh/s, I'm at ~2MH/watt right? Why does your difficulty number have more commas than the national debt? At $0.149/kWh what price am I better off buying coins? It isn't difficulty. It is what difficulty represents. Number of Hashes to make a block. Difficulty * 2^32 = number of hashes per block. Another way of looking at your numbers: 7,255,634,282,020,860 / (3120 * 1000 * 1000 * 60 * 60 ) = 646 hours. It will take you 646 hours to find a block. 646 hours * 1.550kW = 1,001 kWh per block. (neto just about 1 MWh) Every block you find consumes 1,001 kWh of electricity. 10,01 kWh * $0.149/kWh = $149. When you mine you are essentially buying a block for $149. It doesn't matter if you buy it from the market or buy it from mining either way you are buying it. $149/50 = $2.98. If BTC are selling for MORE than $2.98 you should mine. If BTC are selling for LESS than $2.98 you should buy. In the winter you likely can reduce that by 1/3. The energy consumed heats the house. It likely isn't as cheap/efficient as using natural gas so we shouldn't consider it "free heat" but maybe "subsidized heat". In the winter (if your rigs are in heated part of your house) maybe use $2.00 as the breakpoint. In the summer if you need to AC to cool your house that adds about 30% additional electrical cost making your break even more like $4.00 So getting super complex. The most efficient method to acquire coins. In summer. Price above $4 MINE. Below $4 BUY. In fall/spring. Price above $3 MINE. Below $3 BUY. *if not needing to use AC or heat In Winter. Price above $2 MINE. Below $2 BUY. Of course when difficulty changes you will need to adjust but only the first number in the equation changes. Number of hashes per block is simply difficulty * 2^32. Nice Work! Thanks. For me, I also like to add the capital investment into the calculation. All the hardware should be paid off in 18 months in my opinion: That's the average time before hardware doubles in power and/or the price is cut in half. FPGAs will become commonplace and ASICs may be come common after that. If you already had all the capital on hand before you joined the bitcoin venture, then it makes since not to think about it; however, in the future, in order to compete in mining capital investments will have to made by all specifically for mining. |
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The Best Attack is for them to simply buy 100s of billions worth of bitcoins in a short amount of time while giving it massive amounts of positive media attention. Of course they wouldn't get a return on their investment, but its not about money it's about power. Here are the results: 1) Current bitcoiners (very small population) would be so overcome with their wealth that it would be almost impossible to focus on improving bitcoin. 2) Bounties would cease to exist entirely or become very rare. 3) The huge spike in price would attract the whole world to get involved in bitcoins causing the bitcoin price to continue launch to high heaven. 4) it peaks 5) We watch a gradual price decline for the next several years with one negative news report after another (remember: they own the media). 6) This new wealth attracts every schemer, con-man, and hacker in existence to attack every bitcoin web site for personal gain - which is easy considering most of the services are new and vulnerable. 7) All new bitcoiners (which would be very large portion of the bitcoiners population) turn very pessimistic and negative towards the project and slowly give up one by one.  The media circulates stories of how it is the money of drug lords and terrorist and start rumors of legislation. 9) Thank goodness "Bitcoin is dead and behind us" attitude - it was just a fad. 10) It lives on as niche-techy-nerdy currency that has little chance of rising again to challenge their systems - they just ignore us from then on. Sound familiar ?!?  |
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Here's my question for Bitcoinica
Hypothetical: the majority (let's say 90%) of bitcoinica users are long in the market (buying) and are leveraged close to the max (let's say 4 to 1).
From where do the currency funds come to fill those leveraged orders?
Same hypothetical question for large HEAVILY LEVERAGED sell orders that come from the majority of bitcoinica members?
Could you clarify that you do indeed have deep pockets with lots of money and bitcoins to fund these scenarios?
If you don't, then what mechanisms are in place so the market can't leverage past the point of no more funds?
If there are no mechanism and limited funds then the only other option would be for a fractional reserve exchange,
in that case it would be an ethical choice to clarify it to your users.
What does this mean for bitcoinica's users if there are no mechanisms and limited funds?
It means that at some point the leveraged buys or sells do no influence the market the same as a 1:1 buy or sell.
Leveraged buys and sells would merely be "placing your bets" on what way the market will go without really participating.
I would really appreciate if you could address all this.
Yes, indeed it will definitely become a problem when every trades at one direction. We have a circuit-breaking mechanism that stops order execution immediately once the surplus or deficit is so large that we can't back it. However, it has never been triggered since launch, due to these reasons: 1. Bitcoin is extremely volatile. Those who use leverage extremely heavily can be easily liquidated when market moves a lot. Therefore we do not advise users to use leverage in full unless they have 100% confidence. In fact, most of our users are rational enough and do not use heavy leverage for their trades. 2. Most of the time, there are long and short positions are the same time. If so many people are confident that Bitcoin will rise, the price would already have been pushed up. In spot exchanges, every buy order means an opposite sell order. At equilibrium price, it's highly likely that all trading in both directions. 3. Some people use Bitcoinica as a wallet. These funds are used as reserves. We have a big thing to announce soon (in 2-3 weeks), which will solve this problem permanently even without the circuit breaker. We will update you soon! Thanks zhoutong for the reply. That makes since and it is nice to know. I hope you start supporting more than one exchange soon. Your service is nice. |
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Mormons already except accept Bitcoins as donations in all their Church collection baskets - didn't you know that??!!  Actually, we don't have collection baskets, we hand donations in in plain envelopes so nobody (except the clergy/clerks, who keep records and such) can see how much you donate. Actually, bitcoins would serve quite well for donations to such a charitable organization as a church. It has been mentioned before that a great way to help bitcoins grow is to suggest to charities and non-profits to take donations in bitcoin. Maybe I can suggest to the church to publish a bitcoin address ... That would never happen in my opinion. The LDS Church avoids anything that brings unnecessary controversy to its doors. The members on the other hand should be good candidates for adopting bitcoins. |
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Can you take it off line to generate QR code Private keys? Thanks |
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If a small-ish group of people can buy the daily supply with a smallish amount of money, I would say that the system is in it's death throes.
According to your logic, Bitcoin was dead 2 years ago. But let's examine something. If the price went back to $1, Bitcoin would be just like it was when it was previously $1, except for the following: - many new exchanges - many new merchant solutions - many new vendors - stronger hashrate - stronger brand recognition - longer lifetime (more reasonable to trust) - stronger client software - no displacement by multiple competing chains - etc. If Bitcoin was viable when it was previously $1 WITHOUT all those subsequent improvements, it'd be reasonable to think it's viable at $1 WITH all those improvements. The enumeration of improvements is exactly why I consider the solution to be dying. It is a bad omen to me that even with all of those things you've outlined, the whole systems capital creation can still be purchased for a small outlay. You're letting the massive speculative bubble up to $30, and the subsequent fall, cloud your judgement. Consider the market price to be made of two components, the fundamental value and the speculative value. In an asset like Bitcoin, the speculative value will be a very large portion of the market price, because the investment case for Bitcoins is extremely strong (ie - if Bitcoin succeeds, the price of a coin will skyrocket, and if it fails, it will fall toward zero). The result is that the fundamental value component is obfuscated by the extremely volatile speculative value component - and thus the fundamental value may be far higher or far lower than the market price at any given time. For evidence of this, consider that the fundamental value of Bitcoins didn't increase 30-fold when the price went from $1 to $30. Similarly, when the price fell from $10 to $5, the fundamental value did not halve. It is the speculative component which drives market price right now, and for the foreseeable future. Bitcoin is simply too disruptive a technology to avoid this phenomenon. The price falling to current levels is indicative of a change in speculative assessment, not fundamental assessment. It takes a wise, patient investor with nerves of steel to understand this and act accordingly - buying when the speculative value has dropped the market price below the fundamental value. The simple lesson is this: a falling price does not indicate a less valuable Bitcoin, and a rising price does not indicate a more valuable Bitcoin. Ignore the market price, try to discover the fundamental value of these things, and then act/invest accordingly. I think the fundamental value of this technology is massive, and until a serious security flaw is discovered in the protocol, my long-term outlook for the market price of a bitcoin is very bullish. Short-term, I have to take a shot of tequila sometimes to calm the nerves and like you said, don't invest more than you can be comfortable losing. +1. Very well said. Bitcoin is already a huge success in my opinion. Its success is not gauged by its price, but would be better served if its price was on par with its current "fundamental value". I'm not sure where that exact value is, but my speculation is somewhere between $3 dollars to $4 dollars for the next several months. Anything lower than that I consider a steel and will be investing heavily. Also, it does make a lot of since for it to be driven lower than its fundamental value for that has always been the history of bubbles deflating. My guess (speculation) is the all time low will be somewhere between $2 to $3. One thing I observed with the huge price increase to $30 was a mentality of the limited supply nature of Bitcoin. After going that high, reality started to set in that it couldn't be sustained with the current money injection rate and has continued a decline ever since. As the price starts to approach levels only seen before the huge bull run, I fully expect the "limited" supply mentality to start to kick in and create a very rock solid bottom. As for the the mining aspect, I'm fully confident in the miners like my self that will continue to support bitcoin even at a loss (call it a hobby). Why? Where else is there such a system that could compete with the federal reserve. It is truly a priceless technology. The tragic thing would be if the prices deviated to such an extreme from its fundamental price for a second time. With the ability to short and mature bitcoin investing, I really hope relatively and sudden high prices do not happen again. Bitcoin will not die, but will continue to live. Rid yourselves of fear and greed and find better reasons to support this. Government and Banking Cartels have really screwed us in so many ways. Bitcoin is truly a powerful tool for individuals to be free. |
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