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41  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2016, 09:00:15 PM
Re: paper wallets : if you leave them with other people, shouldn't you encrypt them? At one point I had a copy of a paper wallet I stored remotely, and I manually encrypted the key. My nerdy solution was to take the ANSI codes of the characters of the privkey and add the ANSI codes for characters from a password I chose to each character. Password looped because it wasn't as long as the key. Printed out the resulting sequence of numbers along with an explanation of how the addding worked. Didn't encrypt the first character of the privkey since that's a known number and would slightly weaken the security.

You can probably come up with something simpler...
42  Economy / Speculation / Re: Boring market with no strong movements during Chinese holidays on: February 01, 2016, 01:45:45 PM
You know fellas, bitcoin is/was supposed to be a currency, right?  And one quality of a good currency is stability, is it not? 

Anyone?  Anyone?  I think a lot of us have lost sight of this and just want deflation or a boom or whatever.  Boring markets are what I think a lot of bitcoiners want.

Trouble is, stability increases utility, which increases value.
43  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2016, 05:22:08 PM
The $7/tx subsidy only illustrates how ridiculous the coffees-on-the-blockchain idea is, and how critical it is that BTC become high-powered money rather than yet another retail payment rail.

Those four tps are the most precious rare things in existence.  The ability to store and/or transfer value quickly, securely, and without permission is unprecedented.  A gigawatt is a small price to pay for the provision of such a modern miracle.
[irrelevant vitriol removed for brevity]

Posts like this give reminds me we have (some) intelligent people left on the forum. Thank you Smiley

The only thing the current subsidised cost-per-transaction shows is that the vast majority of mining profits come from block rewards, with hashrate mainly supported by a steep appreciation in BTC valuation and, presumably, an expectation of similar price trends to continue into the future. The current subsidy-corrected tx cost has hardly anything to do with actual network usage, and is ridiculously high no matter what the optimal use case for BTC ends up being. Unless you can propose a use case where 10% demurrage of wealth yearly is acceptable.
44  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2016, 10:31:20 AM
As this block size debate clearly shows: gentlemen don't use Bitcoin.

Of course, no true gentleman would go around discussing things as crass as money in the first place.
45  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 30, 2016, 05:45:38 PM
I'm confused. I thought you previously argued for small blocks and not worrying about scaling so much?

I'm in favor of the rational use of the blockchain, not necessarily pro-small blocks or big blocks. You can say I'm against block abuse. I wouldn't mind bigger blocks accompanied with a mandatory fee increase to prevent abuse and keep blockchain activity for transactions, instead of spamming or third-party storage.
------SNIP-----
By the time the subsidy goes down significantly (let's say the halving down to 900 or 450 BTC - which are 2-3 halvings ahead), 2 things will have happened

1) Higher tx capabilities - perhaps 10-20-50x or more, whether directly or with sidechains
2) Much higher BTC price to compensate for subsidy losses. As inflation lowers, BTC becomes stronger price-wise, thus mining 3600 BTCs at 400$ would give the miners less than say mining 900 BTCs at 10.000$.



I don't have time to for a proper reply right now, so I'll just settle for two points : 
-If the miners decide transactions you call abuse make sense for them to include in blocks, why does this bother  you?
-of your numbered points, #2 is obviously wrong. Security in this context is measured as cost to attack vs. potential profit, yes?It follows that as BTC valuation, and therefore the value stored on the network, goes up, you must correspondingly increase spending, in fiat terms, on mining to maintain the same level of security. By this view, it's the BTC cost of mining that is relevant.
46  Economy / Economics / Re: Bank of Japan institutes negative interest rates on: January 30, 2016, 03:07:26 PM
This is why I got into bitcoin.  Coming to the US soon too.  I'll never pay a bank to hold my money.
i just recently heard about the negative interest rates, i dont understand how they expect people to pay to "invest" their money. why would someone pay to hold their money.

This is a 'nudge' from the central bank to take your money out and invest it in the real economy.
If you don't have the appetite, take it out and stuff it under your pillow.

A nudge to get investors to take riskier bets than they otherwise would.
47  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 30, 2016, 07:30:12 AM
The diff has been crazy lately. What happens if after halving the price remain stagnant?
Tx validation becomes more energy-efficient.
48  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 30, 2016, 07:26:34 AM
So if I want to buy an mp3 from an artist, and the artist charges me 0.99$ for it, paypal will take ~0.40$ of it. Paypal becomes the artist's 60-40% partner. So this option is clearly not viable. If you go through bitcoin, the artist can keep like 98-95% of the money.

I'm confused. I thought you previously argued for small blocks and not worrying about scaling so much? Isn't it kind of clear that at 3-ish tx per second, Bitcoin won't be used for small payments like this as the fees will have to grow rather a lot higher than they are now?

Currently the (subsidized) cost per tx is about 7 USD. It's pretty clear miners are being paid too much at the moment, their income will have to come down in the future for Bitcoin to be viable. So if you assume the cost comes down from 10% of value stored annually to 2% or so, the cost per tx is still 1.4 USD, and that's extrapolating from the current situation where there's not that much competition for blockspace. Now, you can still cram some more tx into 1 MB blocks than we currently have, but then again that should also create competition for tx inclusion, so more tx currently is more likely to raise fees than lower them.

If tx per second doesn't rise and you can still send 1 USD cheaper than PayPal in a few years time, that means hardly anyone actually uses Bitcoin.
49  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Are Satoshi's percentage of BTC a serious problem for government acceptance? on: January 27, 2016, 06:09:40 PM
Government adoption of BTC seems unlikely enough without considering Satoshi's coins. But for anyone using Bitcoin, the way things are now is about the worst possible, given the initial condition of Satoshi having mined a huge stash in the early days.

What we could have:
-Satoshi is still around, doesn't say what he intends to do with the coins.
-Satoshi says he intends never to use them
-Satoshi says he does intend to use them, and outlines how
-Satoshi starts dumping his coins
-Satoshi destroys his coins in a provable fashion

and what we have now:
-Someone who may or may not be Satoshi may or may not control the coins, and may or may not do something that may or may not be hugely disruptive with them.

Uncertainty is the problem here. It can't get much more uncertain than it is now.
50  Economy / Speculation / Re: All alts going crazy, people are fed up!!!! on: January 27, 2016, 07:42:23 AM
doge up over 90% in the last 24 hours. Totally sustainable growth, I'm sure.
51  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2016, 05:47:35 PM
There are still miners out there with old versions of the software and running the defaults. Thus, if there's not too much of a backlog, it's quite possible zero fee transactions will get included.

So if zero fee transactions are actually a problem, perhaps it is better that we do have a bit of miner centralization so we have professional miners who actually pay attention to what they are doing instead of a bunch of amateurs not acting in their rational self-interest as was supposed to happen.

Don't amateurs mainly hash for pools? It seems hard to believe there's any significant hashrate operated by hobbyists who actually run their own bitcoind for mining.
52  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2016, 05:13:10 PM
Who decided what the existing minimum fees are? Greenspan?

No-one, since there is no such thing currently. You can push transactions out with whatever fee you wish, including 0. Wallets will usually recommend a fee though, how that fee is decided is presumably decided by the developers of the wallet in question. Miners, in turn, choose what fees, if any, they require for their services. You might say it's a fee market.
53  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 25, 2016, 07:37:50 PM
4c is high.

I'd say we don't know if it's high or not, and protocol decisions shouldn't be made based on opinions on market pricing. Low-fee transactions aren't any better a design goal than high-fee transactions if reaching that goal requires developers to start intervening in free price discovery.

What I'm getting at: Better efficiency is a great goal, and would lead to a lower unit price for transactions, obviously. Trying to fix prices outside the market is a bad goal.
54  Economy / Speculation / Re: No trade too small (6 BTC) for 'them' to come after. on: January 25, 2016, 07:20:21 PM
They DID NOT go after him.. they went after $2k.... ...

Hardly. The potential gain for Bitfinex would have been ([stop execution price] - [average buy price for position closed]) * 6 BTC. Since matthecat says he was looking to scalp a move on the order of 10 usd, I think it's pretty clear we're talking a maximum of a few hundred USD at the very most here.
55  Economy / Speculation / Re: No trade too small (6 BTC) for 'them' to come after. on: January 25, 2016, 04:52:39 PM
You realize, matthecat, that what you're saying is that Bitfinex has painted a bullseye on you, specifically. Obviously there are bigger fish to fry out there if they're stop-hunting on their own exchange. Surely even when you got stopped out, there must have been bigger orders that could have gotten the same treatment. So why did they go after you?

Is it that you have the mark of death on you? Or is it that you're just seeing things that aren't there?
56  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 25, 2016, 04:41:30 PM
No, blocks shortly after the previous block will be coinbase only, distorting your metric, we will never see avg. 0.99MB with a 1MB limit.


Correct. In fact, between empty blocks and some miners mining with a soft limit of 750k and others with a soft limit of 250k, the current maximum average is around 90% full. (Or rather, an average of 90% of 1m means full would be a more correct way to state it).

Wait, miners can choose for themselves what kinds of transactions and how many of them they deem economical to include in blocks??

Sorry. I'm having a hard time avoiding the snark in me here. I guess I see why this has all blown up so badly... If only belittling others could be used to secure the blockchain!
57  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 24, 2016, 09:16:52 AM
[blockchain. info total output chart]
The peak in total output disappears if you exclude returned change. Someone is buying ice creams directly with a multi-million wallet:
https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume


This. TX volume is relevant to speculation, total output not so much.
58  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 23, 2016, 07:29:38 AM
I guess we have to decentralize all the things by force..

Maybe this was sarcasm, I'd have to read more from the previous discussion to tell.

In case it's not: It shouldn't be surprising mining is becoming more centralized, seeing as Bitcoin appears to have been designed with that expectation:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=532.msg6306#msg6306

" The more burden it is to run a node, the fewer nodes there will be.  Those few nodes will be big server farms.  The rest will be client nodes that only do transactions and don't generate."
('generating' being what mining was called way back,)

So yeah. From that, it seems if you want highly decentralized mining, you should take a hard look at whether Bitcoin is suitable to your purposes.
59  Economy / Speculation / Re: Heading for the cliff. on: January 21, 2016, 04:32:00 PM
I read the Reddit thread, and was left unable to decide whether the Chinese source was a factual account or biased spin. I can't verify for myself since I don't unfortunately read Chinese.

Wirdum's tweet seems more clear but who is this guy? Is this someone who goes out of their way to check their sources or someone who posts firsts, asks questions later?

Excuse me for being skeptical here, but how many times have we gotten worked up about what "China" is doing here only to find out later nothing much happened after all?
60  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 21, 2016, 04:28:04 PM
Why would the big holders want to attack one of the chains?  Their holdings are in both chains, and they can keep, move and sell them independently.   Whatever value each branch of the coin has, attacking one branch will kill its value -- which will hurt the holders more than anyone else -- but is unlikely to raise the value of the other branch by the same amount.  

The holders should *pray* for a proposed hard fork will EITHER fail quickly to gather any support, OR quickly achieve majority support and end with a clean non-eventful hard fork.  Any fork attempt that does not resolve cleanly in one of these two ways can only harm the value of their holdings.


Didn't you kind of answer your own question? An unresolved fork would be bad for holders, so attacking the minority chain to destroy it would make sense if it's not  too expensive.

With the first alternative in the second paragraph I meant "fail to gather any suport BEFORE the change is activated, so that the fork never happens and no one seriously thinks that it will happen". 

The first paragraph applies if the fork happens, but is not a clean non-event (i.e., if there is a significant fraction of the hashpower still mining the old chain after the change is activated, in spite of the alerts and grace period).

Sorry for the confusion.

The answer to your question of attacking one of the chains seems to be valid, still.
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