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381  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitstamp is open - now with multisig on: January 10, 2015, 09:40:16 AM
Surely multisig is 2-of3? Bitstamp holds one key, bitgo has one, the user has one. Two of these are required to spend the coins. Bitstamp likely clears funds with BitGo either in real time or periodically.
382  Economy / Speculation / Re: Counter to "Why Bitcoin is dropping ...buying." AMA format / doomsday debunked on: January 08, 2015, 09:39:19 AM

A government does not create land any more than you get your rights from a government.

Sorry to nitpick, but I was a bit perplexed by this. How does one have rights not granted by some ruling body? Rights are what subjects have. Freedom is what sovereigns have, in theory of course.
383  Economy / Speculation / Re: I need your help to fight with Market Manipulators on: January 08, 2015, 08:25:36 AM
Hi! For credibility, be sure to sign a message containing your username here with the keys to your 2000 BTC and post it here!
384  Economy / Speculation / Re: No bearwhale is dumping along with those retail bears. Time to buy the dip. on: January 08, 2015, 06:40:22 AM

By influencing the reserve, we can affect the short interest.


Nah, I'll just keep my coins on BitFinex and offer to lend them to short sellers at 1% a day.

Where do you get the 1% figure? I am only seeing 0.05% a day for lending out btc.

The key word here is 'offer'
385  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does $280 makes you hope again? on: January 07, 2015, 06:19:23 AM
Hi, where'd you go? You seemed to have stopped your rampage of repetitive trolling for a while!

 Happy New Year!
386  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 06, 2015, 06:28:57 AM
If this is life without Bitstamp, then I for one, hope it never comes back online. Good riddance to that Slovenian dump of an exchange and its smug co-founders


I don't follow.
387  Economy / Speculation / Re: A new step in the system on: January 05, 2015, 06:11:00 PM
The only way you'd get rid of speculators, aside from the above, is by stabilizing the price completely, forever.
388  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stamp hot wallet problem? on: January 05, 2015, 06:01:24 PM
freebit13: How do those servers get get the signal to sign transactions?
389  Economy / Speculation / Re: When Stamp re-opens will the price rise or fall? on: January 05, 2015, 05:14:07 PM
If they open for trading but there's suspicion they're no longer fully solvent, withdrawing BTC will be the fastest exit. BitstampBTC may therefore trade higher than other market's BTC IOUs. 

What if the hacker sells the 18k BTC on Bitstamp? (if they're stolen)

Then the folks at Bitstamp will  thank their good fortunes, seize the funds and sic the cops on the hacker.
390  Economy / Speculation / Re: When Stamp re-opens will the price rise or fall? on: January 05, 2015, 04:59:25 PM
If they open for trading but there's suspicion they're no longer fully solvent, withdrawing BTC will be the fastest exit. BitstampBTC may therefore trade higher than other market's BTC IOUs. 
391  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitstamp 18,000 bitcoins stolen? on: January 05, 2015, 04:46:15 PM
Clearly profits outweigh security. It's all speculation at this point and there is a serious lack of information, but my guess is someone screwed up some code somewhere that was creating the hotwallet key pairs and they didn't realize until it was too late which is why they cannot honor any transactions sent to those addresses.

As I see it, there are three scenarios.

1. Bitstamp is pulling a runner, or has otherwise been fraudulent and can no longer cover it up. See Gox.

2. Bitstamp was hacked.

3. Your scenario, where an error was made and keys were lost. Edit: Possibly the keys might also have been made openly available through a server misconfiguration or such.

If it's a hack, they may or may not have lost funds. They may have been compromised in a way that might in principle expose the hot wallet keys to an intruder, but the intruder didn't or couldn't yet spend the BTC. Or they may have simply been robbed.

If it's #3, the BTC is probably lost. Now, in either scenario, #2 or #3, it makes sense for them to shut the service down. The system is compromised one way or another and can't be trusted to function properly. But Bitstamp remained open for business for some time after their announcement about the keys being compromised was made.

Wouldn't you pull the plug on the exchange immediately, if you knew you'd either been hacked or had been exposed to some kind of systemic flaw that might repeat itself? Why wait?
392  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitstamp 18,000 bitcoins stolen? on: January 05, 2015, 04:25:02 PM
Bad and sad news.

Hopefully 2FA will be incorporated into Bitcoin at protocol level if it proves to be a success for Darkcoin.

Imagine that...stolen coins unspendable...

That wouldn't have helped here. It was Bitstamp's hot wallet that was compromised, the main reason to have a hot wallet is to be able to automate transactions. If 2FA was enabled, they'd either have to manually approve each transaction, which defeats the point of having a hot wallet, or automate that part too, which would negate the benefits of 2FA.
393  Economy / Speculation / Re: The de-facto central bank will halt the crash on: January 05, 2015, 06:09:55 AM
Where is naked shorting being done?
394  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2015, 05:31:55 AM
Sell your bitcoins for ripple, only way out of stamp  Cheesy

Have they blocked fiat withdrawals?
395  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stamp hot wallet problem? on: January 05, 2015, 05:09:26 AM
What are the chances all the sales were of fake coins?  Haha...

Wasn't bitstamp the last exchange to dump?
396  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2015, 08:03:39 PM
Serious question:
What's the "fair price" of one bitcoin? and how do you arrive to that conclusion?
Depends on how many people use it and the average dollar value of their purchases.
that was the only approximately legit reply so far

If there was no speculation (including long-term hoarding), only use for e-payments, customers (buyers of stuff or services) would buy BTC just for payments, and give them to merchants (suppliers) or payment processors, who would then sell those BTC to other customers. 

Let V be the total volume of such payments expressed in USD/day.  Let T be the average time in days between the purchase of some BTC by one customer and its re-purchase by another customer, after going through a merchant or processor.   Let N be the total number of coins available, and P the market price of one BTC.  Then, the total volume of payments, in BTC/day, is  N / T.  Therfore, we musthave in we must have P *N / T = V, or P = V * T / N.

Today, N = 13.5 M BTC.  BitPay currently processes ~1 million USD per day of payments; let's guess that V is ten times that, 10 M USD/day.  Let's also guess T = 30 days.  (Note, we are assuming that no one is hoarding, so that everybody passes the coins on as soon as pratical.)  Then we get P = 10 * 30 / 13.6 = 22 USD.

You'd still have the issue of there being some hurdles to overcome before buying BTC to spend it on anything. On one hand, this is a disincentive to use BTC for transactions, on the other it is an incentive to 'hoard', as you put it, if you do prefer to use BTC for some purposes.

That aside, I think we can agree any tradeable asset will see some speculation. Looking at your formula, it occurs to me you might add two variables to account for this. One is the growth rate of the BTC price and another is the average speculator's patience - how long they're willing to wait for profits to reach their targets.  Of course both are unknown and actually somewhat interlinked, so it's no wonder price discovery is a messy business.
397  Economy / Speculation / Re: You are responsible for this on: January 04, 2015, 07:32:17 PM
So what you're suggesting is we should all have conspired to just hodl until the price is high enough. Then, presumably, we'd all sell, except that would crash the price. So just hodl forever. Never even buy anything with your BTC - the seller might convert the BTC to dirty fiat and crash the price!

It just doesn't work that way. You can't complain that the price is too low now if you're not willing to accept it went way too high before. It's just price discovery.
398  Economy / Speculation / Re: For the guy who sold his house and kid who withdrew his college fund on: January 04, 2015, 06:36:31 PM
well maybe too much money has been lost by a few people to actually be relaxed like you guys who bought in for 5$ and would like to sing the permabull-blues 24/7 until down to zero ...  Roll Eyes

You're saying the trolls got burned and are bitter? I don't get that impression from most of them at all.
399  Economy / Speculation / Re: For the guy who sold his house and kid who withdrew his college fund on: January 04, 2015, 03:43:08 PM
I don't know what the guy's saying, but I'm sure it's just flowing with the milk of human kindness pointless and self-aggrandizing, either directly or through belittling others.
400  Economy / Speculation / Re: For the guy who sold his house and kid who withdrew his college fund on: January 04, 2015, 02:58:25 PM
Elwar: That's just paranoid. There's a variation on Hanlon's razor that's at play here: Never attribute to rational behaviour that which can be explained by malice.

Folks like the king of ignores up there have no grand agenda. They just enjoy pissing in other peoples' cereal.
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