I support this view.

For those who weren't following closely, BTCChina and Huobi recently had announcements, and I think they don't have the political support many speculated that they do. They seems to be confident that they have good channels to know the intention from above, but for now they don't know more. From the announcements, you can read that they don't think they have the level of political support they need. -- Either they really don't, or, they do have political support from the investors side, but investors wish to remain silent on why the companies they invested are so lucky.

Right now, the capital, potential profit of bitcoin, is too paltry for those with strong government background to participate. The attention put on bitcoin is unusual: PBOC usually doesn't care such small-timers. I think the possibility that exchanges have needed political support is tiny.

Also, FxBTC and BTER are not registered companies in China. I don't know the other two recently-out-of-business exchanges: BT38 and BTCIG. They were small. BTCChina, Huobi, OKCoin, CHBTC each have a company and at least 10 million CNY capital (1.67 m$). (I had the impression BTER had Canadian venture capital funding, but I don't think they have a physical presence in China.) It is also possible that the smaller targets can be taken out without too much noise.

The typical newbie problem is that you didn't backup Google OTP. That's not my case. I have auhty (an OTP tool) on one phone, and Google Authenticator on another. Both can be used to login coinbase and use any services / functions they offer. The two phones are in two different cities, losing them together is unlikely, hence I consider myself backed-up - not a totally ignorant newbie.

And I lost the one with Google Authenticator. I have full access to coinbase and use every feature they offer, including password reset. The only thing I cannot do, is to reset Google Authenticator. I was surprised, because I thought I can reset one OTP with another.

coinbase says they cannot do anything on their end: http://support.coinbase.com/customer/portal/articles/1468758-can-t-reset-google-authenticator this hints that Google has the control.

So if coinbase can do nothing to reset Google authenticator, even if I have full access to my account, then who can? It is damn difficult to search for a solution on Google, because all search results point to 'how to reset google authenticator so that you can login to your Google Accout' - I don't have that problem at all, because I use Google Apps and the admin disabled 2-factor authentication for the whole domain.

Best.

P.S. Even worse: iOS offers me to upgrade authy, and after upgrade it says "Health Check Failed: please re-install authy app. Before you delete the authy app, enable your authenticator backups and verify the upload status of all tokens to prevent losing them". And 15 minutes google search did not reveal how to "enable your authenticator backups". I still can access every coinbase feature with SMS authentication. This is a seperate problem than the one I am asking, though.

I'll join the group and keep advocating action.

Many said OP is a fool. I won't argue in his favor but the media he quoted ("Caixin") is a reliable one. Today 2 exchanges announced that they indeed are informed of the ban, and they are among the 5 biggest in China: OKcoin and FxBTC.

It takes some courage to insist on truth when everyone shout "Stop the FUD" at you face.

Yes, it is an act in prevention, not in reaction, and a few other reasons (that I state below). It is not for the on-going capital fleet which many others guess. Bitcoin is too small for PBOC to act for capital fleet. As I mentioned in the past, PBOC has reserve to buy up market cap of Bitcoin half a million times. To get you a picture, bitcoin to PBOC is like an ordinary citizen to the Mexco city. PBOC is facing problems many times the scale of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is harmless.

The motiviation is 1) maintain authority of CNY; 2) maintain controll over Internat Finance (under competition of Alibaba's YU'E BAO) and 3) perhaps partly triggered by all major exchange's inclusion of LTC, which makes the whole crypto currency thing look like child's play to PBOC - and PBOC should maintain its image by protecting people from 吸储 (evil guys taking in people's rainy day money).

You would think the order is:
1) they ignore you
2) they laugh at you
3) they fight you (= ban you)
4) you win

The order in China should be:
1) they ignore you
2) they ban you, and left you for dead (ban is not a fight, it is punishment/sentence, you should be dead)
3) they fight you (different from ban, a fight is usually signalled by state-own media's opinion maniuplation)
4) you are really dead (unless a new tech removes the need of centralized exchanges)
5) China goverment dead -> this is the longest phase, measured in decades
6) you are revived when others thrived

Yes, I mean that bitcoin outlives this government.

I was right:) The prediction was made 09th Jan. China still did not ban bitcoin tradng, but is closing all bank accounts of exchanges.

I explained why this ban is real, in my other post:

the China PBOC event explained
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=540358.20

Now it is revealed true.

Hi. Interested, but if have time, I should compare a few agencies before decision:)

I will try, but you know facebook is blocked by Chinese government, right? I can use a proxy, but my facebook account was almost empty, setting a group means every foreigner who look at my background on facebook sees only one thing: that I am after the money I lost - not a very good publicity for a career seeker, right? It implies carelessness and narrow focus.

Maybe if I really do it well I can avoid negative impression for business-partner or employer or my customer who does me background checks. For example, balancing it by writing how to modify violin to its mirror (for left-hand use), to counter the careless and cursory impression I should otherwise get.

Thank you very much for the information. Would you kindly share the steps you take to get this webpage? This web page is unprofessionally made, and cann't reproduce the content with just a link.

a paltry point to make: I am a Chinese arbitrager (really, I have an arbitrage bot working fine, caused 100BTC lose when money was arbitraged into MtGox at the time of its downfall). What I was talking about is the arbitrage direction reversal shortly after Chinese crash or uproar.

I did not. My request was made 19th Jan 2014. I don't think anyone received.

I have studied the cases you mentioned. In both the Oct 2013 case (when bitcoin rose from 130USD to 700 usd) and the very recent cases (since 27th April), the initial ice-breaking is by Chinese players, and the following month or week the world follows blindly. This is by simple observation of Chinese exchanges price changed first, and in a few days international exchanges changed further, making Chinese look conservative. So where are the "serious business" and "serious country" you are so proud of? There are serious people and fools in every country, if you tag a country, you create tension in your own camp. Bitcoin is a war against centralized power, not between countries.

Granted, people can still argue that Chinese are indeed both the victim of centralized power and enemy of decentralization movement, due to our unsurmountable fear towards government. But that doesn't change the game from 'people vs big power' to 'the world vs. China'.

This type of selfish I have seen enough in China, and it makes me feel like home seeing it on an Enlish forum.

Chinese people use Bitcoin because it gives them something they otherwise should beg from the government. You praise bitcoin for beinng decentralized, so Chinese government, a centralized power, should be out of the picture. Why should not Chinese people enjoy the same advantage? Why when you are trying to free yourself from your big powers, we should be slaves to ours? And when we (Chinese) fail at our foe, being victims of a centrlized power, you just ask us out of the picture together? WHY YOU THINK CHINESE ARE THE ENEMY of decentralization, when WE ARE THE VICTIM of centralization?

Stop externalize China by PERSONALIZING China, as if we are a single big guy confronting you. It's a big country with lots of people, and there is a war going on here too.

I am inclined to agree with you.

I just read it. By putting such an announcement there especially the last " 就算世界荒芜，总会有人是你的信徒", BTER forever lost possiblity of getting recognized loyal (while BTCChina repeatedly expressed willingness). Now it's up to PBOC to decide whether loyalty matters - sometimes, they demand loyality, sometimes they just want you dead. We will see.

Reading BTER news I think we are not at the bottom yet.

From your previous post record I will trust this conclusion without further homework. So today some my effort in speculating on unverified information. Pity.

Sorry, I skipped lines: I meant to say "in this speculation the leaked-order is an intention that is replaced by a talk, and BTER didn't get a chance to talk, so their accounts closed as planned". I should have added this line where I said "I do not doubted the recent ban existed in cetain form". But then again, I am thinking Chinese, that line is really not necessary for a local reader.

Don't forget that I also speculated sluggish execution, and more news to come.

Look at the recent 40 years of history, of our government wants to remove a business, it is done swiftly wtithout struggle. Managers put to prison (e.g. 顾雏军) or in extreme cases killed, company collapse with bad publicity (the state controls a significant portion of media and have loyalty of the rest - Caixin is already one of the most honest non-governmental that is allowed to live, hence I trusted their report - they are often reluctant to say what they know, but when they say, it is often true).

If the government wants to talk to you, then they are demanding for obedience, meaning they think letting you live is acceptable or benificial to them. Henc you will live for another 3 months, just to see if the result pleases them. 3 month is the usually shortest time-frame for our government to make a new decision (remember that when I post last time, 9th Jan, it takes about 3 months for this new decision).


We will wait and see how CEOs act. Moving out of the country has similiar outcome as they shutdown -> China out of the game. Google moved to HK and they are still being punished. You don't work on Chinese market without cooperation of Chinese government.

Thanks for asking, I was afraid someone would ask this, 'cause that forces me to speculate, which I should but loath to do. No, I don't really know why we are not hearing from these big exchanges. However, I do not doubted the recent ban existed in cetain form (the recent ban = bank accounts to be closed, 15 exchanges named), not only because I trust Caixin, but the ban is too detailed to be rumor - elaborate rumors don't work in China, simpliest rumour do, this is too detailed to be rumour.

My speculation is outlandish to western readers, so first I'd suggest a read of my previous post, to grasp the culture background:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=397614.0

I'd suggest a full reading. Here is the highlight:

It happened more than once, in the past, that a lot of regulations or a very strict one makes it effectively impossible to do business in the industry. This incriminates the whole industry. The government could then, selectively pursue those who are not loyal, and your survival is back on the track - depending on your loyalty.

So picture this: The officials in charge arranges exchanges to talk, and all they demand for from the CEOs, is not that they promise to follow a certain reggulation, but that they are loyal, willing to obey. If CEOs are obiedient, let them run the business as usual and when anything is wrong, know the CEOs are looking for a chance to pay back, and a communication channel is already established to coordinate any future activities. You only want to make sure CEOs fear you and know to talk in line with medias, and ready to obey. Then you let them live for another while, see if you like the result.

If this speculation is true, Bitcoin will be allowed to live for another 3 months in China. The other possibility being pure sluggish excution - meaning we should see more news coming.


--

If you think this is crazy talk, check the other crazy talk I made and how it came to be reality:
My post:  "What will the China government do to bitcoin?" made on 9th Jan 2014.