Interesting, thanks for the info:) Who are "We"? I looked up comodore+bitcoin in google and find no business named that. The name sound Latin though.

yes you need a bot. You decide to short, so you place an order to buy at $58, for this you don't need a bot.

But you know you could mis-identify the trend, so you also want to place an order to buy at $81, if the price ever break through $80 without hitting $58, --- if when you decide to short the price was $81, then double the reason to do so. But you cannot do it before-hand, that would net you a lot of coins immediately. You only want to place that limited order when the price is near $80, and you need a bot to watch that.

In fact, a shell script (linux) bot less than 10 lines could do that for me. I didn't write on myself -- just didn't realize the $80 wall was so weak, I thought I could see it being hit a few times before breaking.

We have been watching market sentiment for a while. I guess we need to include a new factor, the speed of entrance of new investors.

The market price is decided by a few percentage of bitcoin owners who trades. Most bitcoins are sleeping. We used to think market sentiment is decided by these awaken traders.

But, what if the speed of new money coming into the market beats the trader's sentiment? Only a few percent of the new money are traders, just like only a few bitcoin owners trades. Thus, the new money is not influnced by trader's sentiment but they drive the price anyway.

Which is the main drive behind the price?

This perhaps could make a difference between bitcoin market and stock exchange market. The price in the last weeks could be unrelated to market sentiment at all, but by new money. Quesion: do you think the speed of new money coming into the market is changing in the last a few weeks? There are two methods. 1: to check if mtgox deposite is increasing sharply; 2: to analyse blockchain with statistic tools. Now, which one of us are well equiped with these tools? If you don't, then the market sentiment identification would be without a fundation.

Also look at this:

the $80 wall seemed unbreakable, and it vanished just before the price reaches it. The speculators changed their mind and think they can make more profit later. This doesn't look like denial, more like optimism. Also, this wall is made by human traders (a trader bot would choose a value before $80, most likely not a whole number, e.g. $79.1128). Because they are human, not bots, if they decide to cancel their ask order, they must do it in day time, not in sleeping. And where does the sun shine when the $80 wall disappeared? North American was enjoying a high noon. So the $80 wall builders are likely north-americans -- if they are Chinese, they would be sleeping and the next day find their pocket full of money. Needless to say these north-americans needs to be day-traders too, to have reacted in short notice.

So what we believed to be solid $80 wall is built by north-american day-traders. How reliable is that?

I decided to short when the price at the bottom ($68) when I confirmed the market sentiment is going further downwards, and believed a bull-trap shouldn't reach $90. Although I speculate, I am an investor too, I don't want to lose the coins, so, to be on the safe side, I set a trigger to buy back at $81, recognizing the lose in aversion of the risk of mis-identifing a bull trap -- since I don't have a tradebot, I set the trigger in my mind, just look up my mobile phone once in a while. And after a night's good sleep, a warm Chinese morning find the price above $90. Sure I am in-experienced, to rely on a "solid wall" that is broken at the velocity of 1$ per minute (actual measurement), even if I was awak there is no time to react. That motivated me to find who built the wall in the first place. Now we know who built that wall, but we are still oblivious about what is driving the rally. Do you really think it is by denial? I'd like to know why you think so.

P.S. I didn't buy back at $90, instead am waiting for the correction after the rally, and guessing the depth of the correction, but should I expect a strong correction? One lesson learned: if you are a speculator, and you don't live in the same time zone as Americans, you must hire a trading bot and input the strategy before sleeping; and if you do, also hire a trading bot please. Any good opensource bot to suggest?

Ah, what is TA? did a search in this forum; found no explanation.

It didn't fall sunday yet?

An update:

OP just look intelligent. You have to close the logic loops to be really intelligent.


The people you are accusing pessimistic on this forum talks about what is going to happening IN a month: that's exactly what speculators do. You don't blame speculation on speculation forum, that would be a waste of bullet. Very few on the forum hold pessimistic view on the long run.


The difficulty in prediction doesn't support you accusation that the forum folks are pessimistic. Difficulty in prediction can result in optimistics as well.

Observe, and you will find speculators often hold opposite view to the investors, and apparently you are the investor type. Investors often buy high and sell low. Speculators try to position themselves to take advantage from that. You noticed speculation forum is different, that is exactly the way it should be.

Let me elaborate / repeat this: "When investors are considering if something worth the value in the long run, speculators are considering how many investors are thinking this way and position themselves accordingly. You have a typical investor thinking pattern, you just landed in the wrong forum."

You talked about external factors. Only a tiny fragment of bitcoin is being traded on the market, and these sets the price, thus, although you are correct that the bitcoin economy and future doesn't rest on this trivial market sentiment, but the short-term price rely more on market sentiments than these external and environmental factors. As being said, in a bearish market good news only slows the fall.

From the view of a speculator, your post indicate you are in the denial phase, that is an indicator to them that the bottom is not there yet, and it is going to fall further, and whoever shorting should be more patient. And he could be right, just as right as you are. How could people be correct on opposite view? That's because speculator rarely look beyond 3 month and investors never only within 3 months.

A lot of the speculators are really faithful in bitcoin in the long run, these are speculator-investors, and our forum is, perhaps mostly, made up with such people. Let me show you something. Currently the "blatant" people bidding at $50 are shorting. Once bitcoin breaks through the $80 wall without hitting $50, many of these speculators (including me) will immediately reposition and buy in around $81, accpeting the loss without hesitation. They would buy an alarm clock to wake up in the mid of night to  reposition themselves as soon as this happens, if they don't already have a trading bot to do the same. To "them" it is just a lose in a bet, and it may even be fun and it is how the game be, they don't drop to their knees and cry. I for example don't feel blatant at all.

You mean, the recent fall is not a government conspiracy? Oh you fool, this TED talk is part of their conspiracy!

It didn't falll today yet?

Hey, Markets are irrational, OK, that's a good hypothesis, but how did you irrationally jump to your conclusion?

Why not it be:

Markets are irrational, therefore you should stop thinking about fundamentals and looking at charts to understand the sentiment of others.

This poll is poorly designed. 50 - 99 USD is a very large a range, and thus is the favourate.

Thank you. I am right in the moment of looking for alternatives.

It's being discussed in an onerous discussion here:
https://bugzilla.gnome.org/show_bug.cgi?id=130920

Before they decide to take any action, you may try to use these currency codes of gnucash to denote BTC:

-  XXX (unknown currency)
-  XTS (currency for testing purpose)
-  XPT (Platinum)

So, when they rolled out the real BTC support you can then update your ledger to use it. -- do a search-and-replace of your ledger file (*.gnucash)

There is nothing to do with ISO requirements. Developers do things at their will and update the system following engineering needs, not user requirements. Otherwise how do you explain XTS is not removed in the final release? Users don't have a stake there, in opensource developers rules, the quality is maintained by the fact that most developers happen to be also users. More often than not, if you managed to contributed 50% code, you have to insist on really really bad mistakes in order that other people consider forking your project, and before that you rule like a king. -> this paragraph is not a complaint, just a general description.

They did it before. XAU (for gold) and XAG (for silver) are in iso_4217.xml, which are not part of iso_4217.

bitcoin-qt quit with the error:

I googled for this error message in vain.

A few words on my experience:

I installed the official client. The first week is spent on waiting for the blockchain. By the weekend, I still have 50,000 blocks to download, estimated another week. My connection quality is 5Mbps, and I can easily watch high-definition movies from this connection when I like to, and the machine is directly connected to the Internet, no firewall (= I can run a ftp server for the public when I want to). I can wait, but I am getting I/O errors from the medium. I scanned and fixed the medium and decide .bitcoin (data directory) is corrupted and start all-over.

I downloaded a block chain from the Internet (http://eu2.bitcoincharts.com/blockchain/) at speed of 400KB/s (nearly full of 5Mbps), and started a new wallet with that data imported. I still need to catchup the full blockchain, and by the 3rd day, the block I am downloading is about 333 days old, and there are about 50,000 blocks to further download. I am not even sure if the speed of download can match the speed of block generation.

Just when I plan to run the computer for a month, it stopped working with that error.

So, after two weeks waiting, hours of studying, googling, downloading bootstrap blockchain, checking Internet connection quality (and finding nothing wrong), I am still not able to run the client. I guess I'll have to use e-wallet of some sort. Consider I do system administration for a living and programming for fun, the entrance of using bitcoin client is really high.

Anyway, if you know what that error message means, kindly post here. Others may find this post by Google.

Hello. I was wondering how do you do purchase and sales. The way I do is:

In the case of purchase, I devide my purchase task into 10 pieces of the pie, and for each piece:

1. Check the lowest price today, and the current price, and bit to buy the middle value between current price and lowest.
2. Sleep a night.
3. The next day, see if the order is filled. If yes, repeat 1-2 for the next piece. If no, get nervous and buy the piece at current price.

If I sell, I do the opposite.

My question:

1. I thought buying this way I can often catch the lower price than market average, but if I am really so correct, everybody else would have been doing this already, and there must be some losers, so perhaps this method isn't so working after all.

2. I wouldn't know if it worked! There is no way to verify if my method did work better than other people's, unless I know how others buy.

3. Even if this method works, it perhaps needs to be improved, e.g. bid 2 pieces at a price bewteen last 24-hour lowest and average, and if it is not filled in 24 hours, reduce to buy 1 piece, and if it is filled, buy 3 pieces. Or, vary the wait-time from 24-hours to 48-hours depeneding on whether the previous order is filled. Anyway, someone must have studied these methods. What is the keyword to search for other people's algorithm? I more or less believe my little invention doesn't work. If there is an often-good way to buy, they would have been offered by market operators like MtGox as a service, and they didn't, so this doesn't work.

Thanks. That is very clear!

Thank you for that important quote of the constitution. I had to dig into old newspapers to find out where I read about local provincial currency, and I found it took place in England, not in the U.S.

So from that news leads back to the wikipedia article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Totnes_pound

Totnes Pound is issued by Totnes, a town in Devon, England.

Quote from wikipedia:


I wonder why British government not act agressive and ban it outright. Even if it is pegged to pound sterling it may shift through time.

Further digging into wikipedia reveals there are other community currencies:

This page lists 6 community currencies in the U.K.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Community_currencies_of_the_United_Kingdom

I further wonder if they are required to follow governmental fiscal policies.

Thank you alll. Thank you to freigeist for showing me the documentary. I watched the first one and is really really enlightened. Thank you mechanikalk for pointing out the case that people is actually not allowed to compete with governmental fiat money. These are all very helpful and valuable!

Hello. I never dealt in any other exchange market before bitcoin, so this may be stupid.

What happens if I buy too expensive, or sell too cheap, than the average? Of course the deal will be successful immediately, but at which price?

Supporse there are 4 people each buying a bitcoin, at the following prices:

$105
$103
$102
$100
[ there are no more bids at lower prices]

Now I decide to sell a bitcoin at $90 - maybe I am crazy, may be it is a typo, maybe the market is plummeting at 1$ per minute - and I fill the form, state I am willing to sell a bitcoin at $90, what will happen?

The deal will be successful, but would I get $90 (my biding) or $100 (others' bidding)? Or would I get $95? What about the buyer, would he suddenly find he bought bitcoin cheaper than the price he is willing to pay? Or did the market operator benifits from the difference? Or did each exchange market make their own rule?

I think this happens in stock market too. It's not a new situation.