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1061  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 10, 2014, 09:41:41 AM
While I am waiting you to answer - I'd like you to, [...]

Everything you say is true, but I have little hope that you will ever convince him of that.

I see people using the "bet small until you see N the same in a row, then bet high that the streak will end" technique a lot on Just-Dice.  Usually they wait for the streak and then start Martingale betting.

What's funny is that it often works very well.

The reason for this is that Martingale *does* work very well until you hit a streak that's too long, and if you play enough times you will hit that streak.

But when you wait for a streak before you even start, it has the side effect of really reducing the number of real bets you can make per hour, which really increases the time until you reach a streak that busts you.

So the described strategy "works" in a sense, in that Martingale is a horrible strategy, and waiting for a certain condition to occur before starting each Martingale progression means you play less.

People see this, and think that the magic of waiting for a streak in the dust bets is what it working, whereas smoking a cigarette or reciting the Lord's Prayer between each bet would "work" just as well, to the extent that both would slow you down.

Yes; it is amazing to see how many players think they can change the outcome by the way they bet or when they bet

If you are going to use 100BTC to play a martingale 1BTC 2BTC ect. and you decide you will stop after 50BTC have been won you have better odds betting 100BTC @ 1.5 once

I was thinking about that yesterday looking at a player bet strange amounts in a strange order then say he played badly on the chat after he lost; you said it doesn't make sense to allow autobeting but it does because probably more than 50% of the players don't think in terms of probability but in other terms

Yeah, the first time I saw these autobetting options on a dice site, I thought the operators were dumb or something... but apparently it makes sense.
1062  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 10, 2014, 09:39:04 AM
While I am waiting you to answer - I'd like you to, [...]
Everything you say is true, but I have little hope that you will ever convince him of that.

I've explained it to people, however dumb, if they do not completely believe in magic.

Now if there is someone who actually holds the belief that after a 10000 fair coin tosses that have all been tails, it is more probable that the next one is heads... I'd like to hear if there are any. I promise you won't be bashed for it or anything, these things are not intuitive to too many people.
1063  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Manipulating data with the bitcoin scripts on: June 10, 2014, 04:00:07 AM
There are a few ways to do what you propose. You could use OP_PICK or OP_ROLL. If you want to be more creative, you can do that with the alt stack as well, look at OP_TOALTSTACK and OP_FROMALTSTACK.

I'm not aware of a better documentation source than the wiki unfortunately. You do know that non-standard scripts aren't relayed though, right?

Thank you! And yes, that much I know... but I might be getting something wrong there; those you mentioned are standard, right? I don't know where I could give that much stuff on to the stack to use ROLL for example, can I give many different items at once to be held on the stack as separate pieces of data? I guess it's just the lack of examples on how to use that stuff. No collections yet? Anyway, thanks a lot. I will keep looking, maybe I'll get something.
1064  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Manipulating data with the bitcoin scripts on: June 10, 2014, 03:14:42 AM
It is late and all but I think I could not find these answers on my own that well. I took a look at the tx scripting possibilities and some fun things popped into my mind, but as of now I think it's not possible to get a chunk of data and compare the first 3 bytes of the data to the next 3 bytes, for example.

Am I correct in that and also in that it could be done with the disabled features such as splicing?
Are those features planned to be used on the mainnet later on?

That would allow for some cool things, to me at least... but the wiki page is kind of difficult to navigate. Is there a clearer presentation somewhere, like a simplified version with the functions and some visual aid? There is a possibility for an additional stack, what else... a manual would be nice. I guess the flow control instructions should be simple enough, for one, but I really can't figure out what kind of input it needs and from where. Some examples would go a long way.

I am sure some pretty things have been done with it, I would be interested in seeing a collection and some interesting scripts people have devised, even if with the disabled features.

Thanks for anyone who can answer.
1065  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 10, 2014, 02:23:14 AM
In my personal experience no. The best way I have found is to gamble in alt-coins. Preferably one that is only worth less than 100 Satoshis. Then find a site where you can bet .00000001 of that coin. Play until you have lost like 5 in a row then start martingale at 1 or 2. Sure the profit will be slow, but this gives you more protection. The only real way to make money on this would be to actually use a program to run it for you, but this is just my idea.

It does not offer any protection. If the game works like it should, and it will or it would be bankrupt by now, the events are distinct. You lose 5 times in a row before betting big; so what? The next events do not depend on those, you still have the same chance to lose.

Let's imagine you throw a coin 10 times and get 10 heads; on the 11th, is it more probable that you get heads or that you will get tails?

It is just there to give you more protection. With the .00000001 bet you aren't really losing any value, and if the game truly is fair the distribution should bring it to the point where you would win. It is all about getting more layers of protection. Because lets be honest, you aren't going to lose 1000 games in a row, the odds are so small I'm confident it wouldn't happen because the statistics will balance it out, so you are right, you still have the same odds (an independent event) where if you bet >30 times than a normal distribution curve should apply. (This is all coming from a highschool stat class, but this is pretty basic stat)

While I am waiting you to answer - I'd like you to, I have to point out that you seem to be thinking of "statistics" as some kind of a mystical power that will "balance things out". Statistics have no will. Statistics will behave in a certain manner though - you will see that 1000 losses is not very probable. But it is a 50-50 chance, that streak of 1000 losses, be it "0000000...." is just as probable as "10110011100011..." or any other sequence of wins/losses. Of course those cases where you both lose AND win some of the bets are more numerous, there are almost 2^1000 that kind of sequences, and only one sequence where you lose all bets. None of this means, that after a streak of  999 losses, the final, 1000th one will be more probably a win. Both are of equal probability. I would like to hear you simply answer yes or no to the question I posed, disregarding additional arguments, if I may ask you to do that.
1066  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 10, 2014, 02:02:14 AM
In my personal experience no. The best way I have found is to gamble in alt-coins. Preferably one that is only worth less than 100 Satoshis. Then find a site where you can bet .00000001 of that coin. Play until you have lost like 5 in a row then start martingale at 1 or 2. Sure the profit will be slow, but this gives you more protection. The only real way to make money on this would be to actually use a program to run it for you, but this is just my idea.

It does not offer any protection. If the game works like it should, and it will or it would be bankrupt by now, the events are distinct. You lose 5 times in a row before betting big; so what? The next events do not depend on those, you still have the same chance to lose.

Let's imagine you throw a coin 10 times and get 10 heads; on the 11th, is it more probable that you get heads or that you will get tails?

It is just there to give you more protection. With the .00000001 bet you aren't really losing any value, and if the game truly is fair the distribution should bring it to the point where you would win. It is all about getting more layers of protection. Because lets be honest, you aren't going to lose 1000 games in a row, the odds are so small I'm confident it wouldn't happen because the statistics will balance it out, so you are right, you still have the same odds (an independent event) where if you bet >30 times than a normal distribution curve should apply. (This is all coming from a highschool stat class, but this is pretty basic stat)

The statistics will not balance it out. Before you are to lose 1000 times in a row, you would be in a situation where you have lost 999 times in a row. Why did that happen then? Losing 1000 times in a row is just 50 % less probable, exactly the same probability again that the usual one coin flip goes heads or tails.

Your theory is flawed, to illustrate you this in the easiest way I can - trust me this is for the best of your understanding too - can you answer the following question: Imagine I was with you and I threw a fair coin 100 thousand times. Incredibly, every time it was tails. Would it be better to bet on heads the next time?

A yes/no will do.
1067  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: The Ultimate Help Thread! | Free WoodWallet Giveaways! on: June 10, 2014, 01:44:55 AM
This is a nice thread, will be helping others when I have the time. Winning one of those cool things would be even better than buying one.
1068  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 10, 2014, 01:42:22 AM
In my personal experience no. The best way I have found is to gamble in alt-coins. Preferably one that is only worth less than 100 Satoshis. Then find a site where you can bet .00000001 of that coin. Play until you have lost like 5 in a row then start martingale at 1 or 2. Sure the profit will be slow, but this gives you more protection. The only real way to make money on this would be to actually use a program to run it for you, but this is just my idea.

It does not offer any protection. If the game works like it should, and it will or it would be bankrupt by now, the events are distinct. You lose 5 times in a row before betting big; so what? The next events do not depend on those, you still have the same chance to lose.

Let's imagine you throw a coin 10 times and get 10 heads; on the 11th, is it more probable that you get heads or that you will get tails?
1069  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: how to buy bitcoins with western union ? on: June 10, 2014, 01:28:54 AM
try localbitcoins.com that will guide you to getting some from a local person.

Exactly this. You will find trustworthy people there.
1070  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Did anyone get any money back from pirateat40's scam? on: June 10, 2014, 01:22:59 AM
Oh, people are still going on about pirateat40? Didn't he get arrested a while ago? I think the only Bitcoins he has are the ones he's giving in jail.  Roll Eyes

Please let's not confuse newbies anymore with the bitcoin/buttcoin stuff, they are different.
1071  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 10, 2014, 01:18:08 AM
Martingale would work if you had infinite BTC.

Martingale will always fail if there is a house edge at all.

But you can take the house edge into account by not doubling your bets, but making them, say, 2.2 times higher each time you lose.

You are still making a series of -ev bets, which add up to a -ev adventure. Doing 2.2x instead of 2x gives you a slighty bigger reward if it works, but makes the catastrophe of failure come faster.

Does that really matter, martingale will never work in real life where you have limited funds and limited maximum bets. If you want better than negative expected value then you must have unlimited funds and no limit. If you have those, you might just as well raise your bet by a hundredfold each time you lose.
1072  Economy / Investor-based games / Re: Double your BTC in 48hours on: June 10, 2014, 01:06:41 AM
this reminds me of Double your BTC in 48hrsbtc. Same FAQS and font
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=638022.20

These two enterprising gentlemen indeed seem to have vaguely similar business models. Such a delight to my eye these threads; these men I tell you, are not any ordinary scammers but real confidence artists of utmost sophistication. I will be happy to invest my money to support their careers. How did they come up with all this? I mean I've been on these forums for a long time and I thought Pirate was laughable at best but this is just... pathetic.

Maybe the forum moderation policy should be rethough. This is getting ridiculous.
Edit: This is ridiculous.
1073  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: FISHBITFISH.COM on: June 10, 2014, 12:58:22 AM
Anyway, this is such a nasty little game - I like the idea. If I had bitcoin handy now I would have tried it. I will at some point, though. I think that the people early on in the thread misunderstood the game, thinking it's only about which address get the most bitcoins. That would of course be pretty pointless and kind of a catastrophic game... with the increasing fee it's just really cool.
1074  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: FISHBITFISH.COM on: June 10, 2014, 12:49:53 AM
Hi,

I have a suggestion / reclamation.

My english is not perfect because it's not my mothertongue, so you have to forgive me Wink


The possibility to gamble on both fishes should be forbidden.

Betting on both side looks like a strange idea right ? But look @ yellowVSblue just right now:

Adress "12JPNjfD1QGivFsJZ4S4wdvffYEMjiKAw2"

He just gambled on both side so that almost everybody lose money.


Maybe he's been frustrated to lose and has chosen to suicide the game.. not very funny and very much antigame.. It Shouldn't happen

Or he hasn't understood mathematics.. Maybe..


How is that? He is only giving more money to the winning side, whatever side it will be. Losers will be losing money as they would anyway but the winning side gets that much more. I think your claim is pointless unless you can justify it somehow, but you can't. Your English is just fine though.
1075  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Lowest unique number [JUNE 2013] [PROVABLY FAIR] *UPDATE, PLEASE COMMENT* on: June 09, 2014, 11:57:21 PM
I revised the rules and made them more clear to attract more players. If you feel that the game has a significant flaw for you, please speak out! I want to create a fair game for all.

Thank you.
1076  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Lowest unique number [JUNE 2013] [PROVABLY FAIR] on: June 09, 2014, 11:44:03 PM
This game sounds fun.. I'm going to keep an eye on it Smiley

Thanks, it is much appreciated!

I also edited the original post for some clarity and I do feel the game is vary fair now. It indeed is provably fair if everyone decides to keep their exact numbers secret until the end, but it is not a problem if not. I think the biggest bets would be hashed anyway.
1077  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Lowest unique number [JUNE 2013] [PROVABLY FAIR] on: June 09, 2014, 11:31:00 PM
yeah its a great idea, doing so I might invest my coins to try to win some, when you think you will create a fair system?

It is fair now, isn't it? Well, I can not rule out the possibility that I might cheat by looking at the plaintext bets but I want to continue this and keep this exciting and more importantly (I think), most bets will be hashed.

So you just select how many numbers you want, pay the amount of mBTC and post you numbers here in the thread - SHA256 hashed with a secret string only you know. Then at the end of the round, when no new participants are let in, you reveal the string that contains your numbers and produces the pre-published hash.
1078  Economy / Services / Re: [PrimeDice] [Highest Paid Signature] Earn up to 2.4 BTC/Month by Posting on: June 09, 2014, 11:00:42 PM
Starting posts: 203
Bitcoin address: 1yLVMtLHS4XAQtCrpZxGaXBmEbqwhv9p1

Thank you.
1079  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 09, 2014, 10:52:37 PM
Martingale would work if you had infinite BTC.

Martingale will always fail if there is a house edge at all.

But you can take the house edge into account by not doubling your bets, but making them, say, 2.2 times higher each time you lose.
1080  Economy / Investor-based games / Re: Double your BTC in 48hours on: June 09, 2014, 08:13:22 PM
Another one?  Grin

Good luck with this, if everyday there are always new people willing to throw away their btc, you are doing a nice Darwin selection.

I have to agree. Anyone stupid enough to invest in this shit deserves to lose their money...

Do you think there is some limit to that? Like, any retarded people can be stripped of their money because, well, they're stupid?
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