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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 30, 2017, 01:21:31 PM
4-digits here we come
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: What caused the sudden slump of BTC today? on: December 28, 2017, 08:11:44 AM
Anyone noticed that everytime that there are bad news about bitcoin it cames from Korea? What the hell is wrong with that country against bitcoin? it seems that they want to stop it at all cost.
The same is happening from North Korea too

No, South Korea is very pro-bitcoin country, according to some sources every 3rd working citizen owns bitcoin, South Koreans love BTC, but South Korea as country is very concerned about BTC speculation in order to protect it's citizens they want to regulate crypto-currency.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Call the bottom (for bears only) on: December 27, 2017, 08:28:46 PM
Based on the slow ramp up of the beginning of the rally with the strong support at $5500 and the subsequent meteoric rise, I chose a bottom of $5500. Based on previous rallies and crashes, the always goes within 50% of the past ATH - that would put the target at $1800 - which happens to the be the FIRST place there was a strong support during the rally. However, that seems extremely low and unobtainable at this point. Now there are bulls who claim this thing cant go below $12K or whatever again - that sounds equally ridiculous. What is your target?

My $5500 bottom might not be reached for several weeks or months. If I was to put a short term bottom for the current movement going on right now it might be more like $8000 but who knows.


As you can see from this chart, even my target of $5500 seems way too high. And I dont even have 2011 on here.
Short term bottom might be $6500 (if BTC crashes from $15 000, if BTC jumps to max possible price at this moment $17500, then  short term bottom might be $8000), 1 year bottom $4000. Bulls might stop the fall @ $12k only for 1-3 days, I expect this to happen, but after that BTC will continue it's journey to sub 10k levels...
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do there is a possibility of another correction in bitcoin? on: December 27, 2017, 08:50:48 AM
BTC is following the classic bubble pattern, I expect it might jump to max $17 500-$18 000, after that we will have a sharp fall to $12 000 zone, price will fluctuate a couple of days and after that sharp decline to 8 000. Longterm target price in 1 year is $4000.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 26, 2017, 09:06:12 PM
H&S pattern


If it plays out , then we have a big buying opportunity around 8k.
My target too
Ew, poor trolls! You are still dreaming you can influence the price by such noob posts  Grin You came out of your mouse holes for a little while just to hear the king lion BTC roar and then back to your holes for months. Let me guess: your next dream will be drop from 30K to 20K.  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
Please cross 17 750 and I will completely agree with you
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 26, 2017, 08:42:26 PM
H&S pattern


If it plays out , then we have a big buying opportunity around 8k.
My target too
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 26, 2017, 08:35:35 PM
H&S pattern
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is the most expensive vaporware in the history of software industry on: December 22, 2017, 11:44:57 PM
It looks to me like our OP is one of those people lured by the promises of fast and easy money. "listen dude you buy bitcoin and a month later you sell with 2x profit! I've seen a program of those young millionaires one dude has 3 million USD at the age of 20!" and now it's like
-mom, dad , I lost some of your money, they were all saying it's going to be going up, they promised me! Cry
-where did they promise you?
-on the forum! They were saying "to the moon" and so I went!

Back to reality OP, if you don't understand something don't follow the crowd. It usually doesn't end good.
Your assumption is completely wrong. As you can see I'm here since 2012, bought first coins at $6, earned more than you can think, I don't use BTC anymore for trading, I don't use exchanges, I only use BTC for transfers. Only reason why I'm pissed off is because I built a business around BTC and I can't use the protocol anymore because of transfer fees.

It's not possible to use BTC for business anymore, try to sell/buy goods or services for BTC, transfer fees will eat sellers profit or you will have price too high compared to the price of people who are selling something for USD. On the other hand, buyers of goods or services would pay too much for the product.

Bitcoin without business people and without final customers will die, because no real value is added, no products or services are offered, it would become obscure virtual virtual virtual crypto-currency which you can't spend anywhere. Why would anyone use BTC if USD/BTC---->BTC/USD route is more expensive compared to to USD---->USD route?



9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is the most expensive vaporware in the history of software industry on: December 22, 2017, 06:21:17 PM
Lightning network goes against the decentralized philosophy of cryptocoins, that's why it will fail. Another cryptocoin that's not as flawed at its core will take over, that makes much more sense than some centralized patching system like lightning network: https://medium.com/@curt0/lightning-network-will-likely-fail-due-to-several-possible-reasons-336c6c47f049

Let's see how one operates before condemning it, no? I personally don't have the slightest clue how it's all going to work. I'll wait to see one in real life before deciding.

Go try Ripple (if you dare), they have "lightning network" called "payment channel". I used Ripple in 2013 and it's terrible and I won't use it ever again. Maybe it would be a good introduction how hard would it be to live in a centralized crypto. Problem with centralized is that you are not free, you must obey by their rules, for example bitcoin exchange website can freeze your account, block you until you get verified etc, same could happen in the centralized crypto world.

There will be other crypto-currency solutions, I didn't say that crypto-currency is dead, bitcoin is dead because technically it's heading in the wrong direction. Blockchain is the only true solution, avoid everything offchained and centralized.

I expect that the future of crypto-currency world would be in concurrent blockchains, find one that is cheapest, fastest, most secure etc, blockchain usability would dictate blockchain's crypto-currency value.
10  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin is the most expensive vaporware in the history of software industry on: December 22, 2017, 05:28:19 PM
Bitcoin just doesn't deliver what he promises, cheap and fast money transactions. Transactions via BTC network are not cheap at all ($55 per transaction and raising), they are the most expensive transactions around, plus you can't even make a transaction because network is clogged, 282 000 unconfirmed transactions, we only have a promise of Lightning Network as a solution for this problem, solution that is not fully implemented, solution that is not Bitcoin, promise is not a solution, promise in software industry is called vaporware. In my honest opinion, after 5+ years of using BTC, currently it's worth $0 (ZERO).
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: This time is different on: December 22, 2017, 05:17:45 PM
This is a massive dump, but there is nothing to be worried about because the price will recover sooner or later.
Why do you think that it touched $10,200 and now it is upto $13,300? Because they are re-buying again.

Why would anyone buy something that doesn't work? Bitcoin is completely blocked, average transaction cost is $55, there are 280 000 unconfirmed transactions, plus there is no legit solution for this problem.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: When bitcoin price will be increased again on: December 22, 2017, 08:42:56 AM
I invested about $3500 in bitcoin on 19th December, 2017. After that Bitcoin price has been decreasing and this decreasing is ruing non stop. Now I am in loss amount of $700. I am so much frustration with my investment  Shocked. I am waiting for better time. If you have any idea please share in this thread.  Huh
5 years
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Now that BITCOIN hits the 18K$ USD LEVEL.... When will this GIANT BUBBLE burst? on: December 19, 2017, 10:08:57 AM
Bitcoin is already too expensive and definitely a giant bubble, not question about that. I'm looking at Mycelium wallet and just can't believe that "normal" transaction fee is 16.89 USD/byte?! Add in/out fees (for example ATM fees 6%+, LocalBitcoin premium approx. 7%, bank wire at exchanges approx. min $20) When I started using BTC it was free to send them, after that it was symbolic, now... it's not even competitive to classic payment systems.


How are fees relevant to the question of whether or not Bitcoin’s valuation is in a bubble?  Do you know how Bitcoin works?  Also, Bitcoin fees are not denominated in USD/byte.


Leaving aside spam attacks for the moment, fees are a proxy for network demand—in turn, a reasonable proxy for estimating demand for Bitcoin.  Transactions used to be free or cheap, because Bitcoin itself was widely considered to be a worthless toy.  This meant that blocks were almost empty.  What you are really complaining about is that Bitcoin is now valuable—not some supposition that it be falsely valued.  Blocks being full and fees being bid up are data points indicating the opposite of a bubble.

Also, what is the relevance of fees from other services (ATMs, LBC, bank fees (!))?  How can you blame Bitcoin for your bank’s wire transfer fees?


Fees are more than relevant, they are a clear indicator of Bitcoin technical limitation, as you said blocks are full, cost to mine a block is too high, Bitcoin is unable to scale, I don't see LN as a solution. Fees are showing that BTC has become more expensive than other payment methods. If you want a mass adoption of BTC and you want BTC to become more valuable, you must be aware that masses receive they salary in national currency, unfortunately this won't change in the near future. Plus, masses want to transfer money as cheap as possible. Person A is interested to transfer money to transfer B in the fastest and cheapest way possible. How would you convince them to use BTC for this purpose? Would you send $50 through BTC network or you would use a bank transfer or other conventional payment system?

Just imagine person A receives salary in USD and he wants to send $50 to his friend person B. In order to use Bitcoin network, he needs to buy bitcoin, should he make a deposit to Bitfinex and pay min $20? No. Maybe use Localbitcoins and pay premium 7% + plus underlying payment system fees? No. Maybe, he should just use ATM and pay 6% fees? This sounds like a cheapest and most elegant way so far. He could maybe try to meet someone in person, but I don't think that average user has that much time or wants to risk being robbed my some guy.

OK, so far so good, only 6%, next step send BTC to person B, wallet shows that he must pay 16,89$ worth of BTC for this transaction. OK, this should not be this fast, let's try with the lowest possible priority which will confirm and not get stuck for the infinitive time, this is approx... 106 sat/byte approx $4.46.

Next step, person B needs to sell BTC in order to use this value in his national currency, because we still don't use BTC to pay in stores around us, let's use ATM again, another 6%, plus probably 16,89$, if you want to receive money while you are still around ATM.

Conclusion, if person A wants to send $50 to person B through BTC network, it would cost him $83.84 in total and $33.84 for fees (approx. 40%) or let's rephrase if you want to send $50 you must pay $33.84 which means 68% fees. Slow and expensive. I think that they would rather use cheaper conventional method.

For me, it's all about usability, mass adoption and scaling, if it's not usable, you will have less users, if you can't scale, you will have even less users, less users, lower fees, less users lower BTC price, current 379sat/byte "normal" miners fee would me much cheaper probably $3 and more competitive to other payment methods. If you compare $3 with current $15.79 for the 379sat/byte, expect BTC to crash 5x of it's current value, probably BTC price would stabilize at $4000...
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Now that BITCOIN hits the 18K$ USD LEVEL.... When will this GIANT BUBBLE burst? on: December 19, 2017, 08:10:32 AM
Bitcoin is already too expensive and definitely a giant bubble, not question about that. I'm looking at Mycelium wallet and just can't believe that "normal" transaction fee is 16.89 USD/byte?! Add in/out fees (for example ATM fees 6%+, LocalBitcoin premium approx. 7%, bank wire at exchanges approx. min $20) When I started using BTC it was free to send them, after that it was symbolic, now... it's not even competitive to classic payment systems.
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Only 2 days untill CME launch Bitcoin future! on: December 16, 2017, 10:10:32 AM
Things are not that simple, CME launch could mean BTC exposure to the bunch of classical economics experts, loaded with money, most of them thinking that BTC is a bubble and it would be a great opportunity for them to short BTC.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: YOU ARE ALL STUPID - SELL NOW on: December 13, 2017, 08:36:26 AM
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: When BTC will go down on: December 12, 2017, 07:39:20 PM
Hi community, now btc is more then 15500 wha do you think - when is better to sell it? when  price will go down?
Now
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Official Bear Camp Thread (late-2017 edition) on: December 12, 2017, 07:18:36 PM
Unrelated, but look at Microsoft's stock. It's also going parabolic.
After "parabolic" there is always a "bearabolic".
19  Economy / Exchanges / Re: 【Bitcoin Debit Card UQUID】 No ID Required |Multi Cards Buy Supported | 0% Fees on: July 01, 2017, 01:32:30 PM
Hello Uquid,

Today I tried your website...
I made a BTC deposit worth 1EUR, it costs 0.00102300 BTC (I have calculated that you used this exchange rate: 977.5 EUR/BTC)
After that I made a BTC deposit worth 1USD, it costs 0.00096200 BTC (I have calculated that you used this exchange rate: 1039.5 USD/BTC)

Considering that exchange rate is approx. 2480USD/BTC and 2150 EUR/BTC, I must ask why are you so expensive? What exchange rate are you using?!

Thanks in advance!
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why waiting for the end of PBOC investigation, we already have a proof on: February 19, 2017, 07:58:25 PM
The Chinese volumes were an effect of: first no fees - this has changed, second bots used for inflating the volume - this should also be over as this was required by the authorities, third possibly by completely fake numbers generated by the exchanges - this should also be over as required by the authorities. This is well established now and it is a good explanation - that's why nobody asked Bobby Lee about it. No withdrawals can add to diminishing the volume even further - but it is not the primary reason - you are right there.
No fees policy would not influence the volume in this order of magnitude. If you take a look at the graph, it's almost 450x lower volume then before, that's 45000% lower than before. I don't know about what type of bots are you talking about, if you are talking about trading bots there is still an evidence that they are still there, because exchanges are moving synchronously to CNY exchanges or vice versa.

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