easiest answer is this
forget where the price is right now

and think about the cheapest region on the planet where someone can acquire bitcoin at the cheapest price
AKA the most efficient mining asic in the cheapest electric region
call that point (a)

then do the opposite. the most expensive mining cost on the planet
call that point (b)

realise because no one can get bitcoin below (a).. if/when the price comes down close to (a) everyone that has acquisition costs above that price all the way to (b) will be extremely happy to buy.
the closer to (a) it gets the more people are then interested in buy and less interested in selling which helps the price not come al the way down to (a)

and if everyone can mine at or below (b) then no one sees the need or has desire to pay a premium by buying above (b) so the amount of buying power fizzles out.
and obviously alot of peope are profiting so alot willing to sell the nearer to (b) it gets which also tops out before getting to (b) when there are not enough buyers for the sellers

at this moment the a-b window is a gap of 6.3x
meaning if the price sat at (a) the price can bubble 6.3x of (a) before hitting (b)

at the last ATH
point b was around the $75k

this year its still below $100k so i dont imagine it bubbling above 100k unless the mining competition ramps up and the mining costs increases to change the window upwards soon

..
but looking at the previous bubbles (2013, 2017 2021)
bitcoins price before asics came out in late 2013 was 13-230 (16.6x)
bitcoins price due to asics coming out in late 2013 was 230-1200 (4.3)

the 2017 was about a 4k to $20k (4x)
the 2021 was about a $25k to $70k (under 3x)
the 2021 was about a $25k to $70k (under 3x)

then more recently the window of cheapest came down by 2x (~$13k min mining cost(a)) but can possibly reach the 90's range, this the over 6x

so stats show we probably wont see a 16x again like the 2011 2013 events
and from math and logic of many factors the bubble window may become shorter in the future, but the only way to know is to experience it. no one can truly predict the future


there is a bubble every cycle and a correction to a new raise bottom
2011 had one b(b)32 (a)$4  (2009-2012 cycle)
2013 had one b(b)1200 (a)$250  (2012-2016 cycle)
2017 had one b(b)20k (a)$4k  (2016-2020 cycle)
2021 had one b(b)70k (a)$17k  (2020-20.. cycle)

where each cycle see a new raised low 4 250 4000 17000
so its not a gamble. its how deflation works
as for predicting the top and the timing of when the new ATH happens. well i gave a rough idea of how much at present(can change quick) but cant predict the when..
so those hoping for short term gains is a big gamble(6-12month)
so those hoping for long term gains is a good bet(2-4years)

the reason i am condescending is because
there are people that are saying they dont understand why things are happening or wondering whats going to happen or dont know what things are considered a reg flag whereby i  literally point them to the regulations guidelines. i even quoted the regulation guidelines
yep i saved people from having to read loads of pages to get to the summary of the bits they needed to know

where then i see a certain know few people posting that for years have had malicious intent of trying to use other people for their personal groups agenda.. thus yes. i get extra condescending about those group of people

and instead of then LEARNING. they went on some social drama personal attack campaign trying desperately to not wake up and try to stay in the fantasy where they can convince themselves that the regulation guidelines dont exist so they can pretend they can think that mixers are safe

these regulations took me 20 second to find and anyone could have done it. so instead of crying and causing personal drama.. just for once.. actually read the point

yes anything that is classed as anonymity enhancing tools is a red flag

and yes that includes sidechains and altnets and mixers and tumblers

so go back and read the post again
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5409206.msg60729993#msg60729993

it lists
"whether it uses mainnet or the use of embedded layering or other scaling
solutions), or the additional services that the platform potentially incorporates
(such as a mixer or tumbler or other potential features for obfuscation)"

so thats not only moero, liquid, but LN and mixers, and tumblers. and other things too

yep they are already primed to have exchanges treat networks that use things like mubit and mimblewimble and other confidential things as suspicious

by me actually bothering to use google. and finding out.. doesnt make me an 'agent' or a troll.
i understand it makes people upset when someone tells you something you dont want to hear.

but how about understand whats being said rather than attack it pretending you can change their rules or dream the rules away by playing ignorant or destroy a law with insults on a forum
i insult certain people because for years now. they have a agenda to mess with the bitcoin community while they kiss ass and pretend to be everyones best friend.. and it seems a few people fall for their kiss assery

its not about good or bad coins.
its not even about what silly people think that bitcoin tags on the products they bought that now need to be hidden(silly because bitcoin does not do this)

what it is about is this:
when idiots try to scare people and say that everyone should fear their bitcoin use, people shouldnt just use bitcoin for daily stuff. everyone should fear being on a watchlist just for buying groceries and office equipment/using bitcoin. where idiots then say everyone should use a mixer to hide what your doing to not be on a watchlist... yet the service they promote (mixer) is the trigger that gets people put on a watch list. no matter what they used bitcoin for

getting everyone to use a mixer WILL NOT make regulators just switch off and walk away..
it will just make bitcoin less used.
and yep thats what the silly idiots want. bitcoin to be less used.
their premise of the certain group of the same dozen idiots.. is to try to tarnish bitcoins natural utility of just transacting daily and normally.. to try to BS the community into fearing using bitcoin normally. scaring people into thinking bitcoin is not fit for purpose. and then advertising to scared people that they would be better off using another middleman service or altnet instead.. even when its the very same service or altnet which they advertise  is the cause where normal people would get red flagged

its a hybrid of both.

people WITH smartphones that are internet enabled can go to a retail store, buy a certain giftcard and redeem that for LN msats via bitrefills. and then send them msats to the service.
where the service then uses its central database to credit peoples SMS number in its mysql database with a allotment of sats(custodian) on its centralised database

those using 2g only (GSM) can then send a message to the central service to request transfers of central database balance/custodian to other peoples SMS number

this system is not about setting up a LN channel for every single SMS user. as there is just is not enough liquidity or (i wont mention al other issues) to perform that.

the important thing is the OR in their description of the service. it reveals alot that its not 100% LN nor 100% bitcoin network

innovation
there are many diary/calender apps that you can use to set an event where the note is a URL..

those who get excited by a price rise spike. are those ready to exit
they are not bitcoiners they are fiat lovers who cant wait to get out of btc

those who advertise altnets as solutions to things. are not bitcoiners either

bitcoiners want low onchain fee's and expanding the bitcoin utility onchain to allow more daily use
anyone who just says bitcoin wont/cant scale and that bitcoin is not fit for purpose is not a bitcoiner
anyone who says people should not use bitcoin as is, but instead should lock value up and then use some other service/net/option, is not a bitcoiner

we get cycles of these people. getting excited about some new option to exit bitcoin with. either its the price to exit to fiat. or a new code option to exit bitcoin to some altnet

the way i see it
if i was hiding money in a off shore bank. id be saying i have no association with that bank nor have an account with them. because i wouldnt want the government associating me with that bank to then steal that value

so when schiff goes too deep into trying to say he does not use bitcoin.. its obvious he does. he just doesnt want the government to find his store of value.

for bitcoin(ignoring LN)
bitcoin can easily have a sidenet that uses an allotment of coin to represent an allotment of fiat
EG 100sat=100cent. where there is none of the LN flaws of peg ratios.

bitcoin could have its own usd sidenet to compete agaisnt ethereums usd sidenets

that way locking 100 units at the bitcoin side is the same unit count as what is then passed around in payments. where there is no conversion rate cludge of code that could be abused

(unlike the easily abused conversion rate of LN's 1:1000 between the commitments and payments)


LN doesnt need bitcoin. LN never has.
LN has no consensus thus anything can happen. LN could build anything without touching bitcoin

but i am laughing that blackhatcoiner suddenly want to call LN a subnet when its bridged to a blockchain/allotment of units he doesnt want to use in LN

anyway.
LN has too many liquidity leaks, bottleneck flaws. multiple ways to abuse the system. its been done many times even by the LN devs.

so i dont see why anyone would try to bridge LN to anything unless LN tries to fix its flaws.
so far LN is just a niche service for those that dont care about long term store of value security.

more likely a completely different network would be created that bridges to bitcoin and other networks including a new stablecoin(doesnt have to specifically be tether brand)

for those interested in the peter schiff story
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S333his4q0o

it kinda hints at a few things
those wanting to tax evade. always shout out loudly that they pay the taxes and have anyone that evades tax.
and they want nothing to do with some off shore bank..(even if they use it)

so is peters hate of bitcoin actually a defence to hide where he actually hides his value

funny part is

idiots want to remain stupid.
i dont work for the government nor advocate for them..
quite the opposite actually

the thing is unlike stupid people who dont research or learn and instead the idiots rely on fear fantasy and scripts wrote up by like minded idiots or their 'hand-more-down' influencer.. i actually bother to do my research


here is what idiots do not learn

when they use a service. like an exchange. their details are just put on a exchange database that stays on the exchange server for 5 years and then destroyed.
as long as no red flags are triggered, governments do not see that data
why?.. well logic, common sense and research is this:
a business with 80million customers dont have enough employees to physically look at every customer. and governments dont have millions of employees watching hundreds of millions of peoples activity every day..
this is not defending a business or government. this is understanding the reality of life via fact and research

its the same as china. their government do not have billions of people to watch over billions of their citizens 24/7
so stop watching fox news tell you that china are all prisoners . they are not
its like how dumbnews.. oops i mean fox news says 'china is the enemy that no one wants to work with.. yet if you look at all trade. millions of companies work with china and make profit.


knowing the facts of life is not defending a government, its about understanding how things actually work instead of making things up to scare people

so by knowing how things work. i can fly under the radar and not get my exchange account record put into a SAR(suspicious activity report) that goes to government, simply by avoiding the things that services classify as a red flag.

so what is the main red flag.. yep using a mixer
so logic, common sense = what do you do to avoid having your info reach the government. yep not use a mixer

no where on a bitcoin blockchain will you find a note inside a tx that tells everyone what product you bought that day.
so pretending that using a mixer protects your privacy from being seen by a government is like saying

(a bank note does not have written on it how much pepsi you bought that day),
(casinos report customers handling large amounts of bank notes)
 but idiots want you to believe that bank notes do tell governments this so people need to use a casino to mix their bank notes.. yet by using a casino the government are then learning that you are suspicious and put your name on a watch list. thus the very fact of using a casino didnt hide you from the government. it actually got you put on a government watch list

so when idiots pretend 'casinos hide you from the government' .. they have it all wrong and are just telling people the wrong information

LN is not consensus locked to bitcoin.
LN dies not even have a consensus


this is what some call a feature but is also a flaw of LN, because LN can be broke very easily and also changed very easily to fit any network

LN devs can(well their dev politics agenda is a different story) . anyway the LN devs can have a set up of channels where instead of having pegged sats to msat. they can have pegged stable coin to pegged mcents


the same way bitocin, litecoin, vertcoin(and others) lock value to an utxo. and hen use that as a reference point on LN to then make 'commitments' and then 'payments' in msat balance

there are stable coins that could do the same. have a lock where their utxo dont move unless terms a re met. and hen use that as a reference to create the mcent channels

congratulations

another step forward.
you finally getting it.. (though you then try to not openly just say you actually know by then twisting things into a point finger in  different direction after omitting it)
the answer is: stop using services.. especially ones that are in print of regulations know to cause red flags

funny part is you and your group idolise the DCG who pay blockstream and LN devs... and who own bitpay, kraken, coinbase, circle, gyft and chainanalysis

i have been saying the solution is not to use more middle men services(which you are advertising)
so stop trying to twist things around

i have shown you that mixers do cause red flags and all coins that went through a mixer is on a chainanalysis watch list which is sold to exchanges.

again.. your groups pretence is o imply that the blockchain openly tells the world how many sex dolls you bought if they/you didnt use a mixer..
if that was reality.. show me ANY bitcoin transaction that shows what product someone bought.
show me the raw blockchain data that proves your point.

again. can you agree that its not a flaw of bitcoin. but a issue of SERVICES that are a privacy concern.
you know the services you idolise and advertise so much.



get with reality.
telling people to use mixers is telling people to get red flagged and noticed and surveilled more than people that dont

https://www.fatf-gafi.org/media/fatf/documents/recommendations/Updated-Guidance-VA-VASP.pdf
VA = Virtual Asset - VASP = Virtual Asset Service Provider - AEC = Anonymity-Enhanced Cryptocurrency


try to read and do research instead on what the hopes and dreams and scripts your buddies tell you where you aimlessly then believe the utopian hope because you hear the same echos from the other buddies reciting the same crap

look outside your groups utopian scripts and learn what actually is a surveillance red flag.. and then when you learn the ACTUAL red flags you then know what actually to avoid

and yes.. the blue writing in previous posts quotes are a hint to the other project you advocate for being another red flag trigger..
LEARN and then understand

i am not acting like a government agent, i am just not afraid to do research to know what reality is and what actually happens in the real world.
i dont reply on the fantasies friends tell me to make me feel good with lies. i actually do the research.. so go try it and stop trying to find your social groups confirmation bias. and then stop trying to push your silly adverts on others knowing full well it will red flag them


oh..
and as for your use of de-fi /dex
much like the old local bitcoins. they to are running into regulations
oh and when you do crypto to fiat. what you find is that instead of an exchange having automated scripts(no human eyes watching your account). de-fi users manually type in their bank account associated birth name and their bank account number, and the person on the other end does the same thing to send you the fiat.
(many human eyes)

so each time you use de-fi you are adding one extra person that knows your name and local bank branch
so again your not being that private by letting loads of people know your name and bank account details.

oh and another lesson
even with your bank. when you receive random deposits from lots of different people(de-fi). your bank red flags that too.. far more so then regularly doing deposits and withdrawals from one exchange
so even de-fi doesnt actually help privacy.

but hey, your not thinking deeply about actual privacy. you just want to advertise certain services.

i guarantee you if someone was to read your post history. they would see YOU have advertised the most amount of services that are red flag triggers..

the more services and the more middle men you use.. the more noticeable you become

think about that

---

here is the difference between me and you

you:
"by using an exchange the government watches your every move"

^ WRONG
reality. by actually doing research is this

when using an exchange. your data just sits on the EXCHANGES computer where no human eyes bother to look at it. as it raises no alarm bells and because they have millions of customers they just dont have the time to care.

however by using a mixer then an exchange. you WILL get highlighted as worthy of looking at. by which then and only then would your details most likely end up in a SAR

so learn how things really work in reality.. then you can learn how to work around such things to stay under the radar

point is exactly that

YOU were blaming anti-privacy based on the blockchain. where now you have omitted the problem is in services.
(one step forward. congratulations)

the funniest part now you have omitted it, you might now realise that asking everyone to stop using the blockchain
to just move funds, but instead lock funds up to middlemen services that control who gets what. and altnets involving partners and custodians will some how in your mind resolve the pretend bitcoin fault you wish to imply

sorry but no.
just read this very topic.
wasabi is generating blacklists.. the very thing you think mixers prevent.
they are literally telling you to your face that mixers are not what you think they are.
your response is then get angry that mixers have let you down. but then trying to sales pitch mixers to everyone else to use as their 'must use' thing to avoid normal blockchain usage

do get it yet(your hypocrisy)

using middle men services and forcing others to lock funds up to services and altnets pretending your offerings/advertised services hides people.. doesnt. ....it actually red flags those users.

try to read, try to learn, try to understand

---

again it seems the lagging is in part by certain people not wanting to do the research or actually think for themselves what actions people themselves are advertising that actually causes people to be highlighted and surveilled

so because your crowd want to not do the research and instead want to promote middlemen services

let me show you one more time..
and this time actually read and understand and take the time to understand.. and not just hit the reply button trying to defend a service you pals want to advertise for personal greed, malicious intent

maybe i should make it more colourful to grab your intention


yep mixers will earn people a red flag that puts them not in the normal user data base that doesnt get looked at for 5 years before getting deleted.. but instead gets users put into a suspicious activity watch list

GET IT YET

..
lets put it another way
imagine there was a known law for years that anyone depositing funds into a casino would be on a watchlist by default, no matter the purpose or source of funds. just using a casino gets you surveilled

and now your group come along and try to scare people that every cent people spend is being watched, so they need to use casino's to hide.
sorry but no.. not everyone was being watched.. but those using casino's are. and you are trying to get everyone watched by telling them to use a casino

do you know why oeleo and yourself cant find my stash or my real life info
yep i dont use silly middle men services to the extent that you lot advertise.

as for why i am against the silly groups tactics of advertising silly things. is because their underlying motives is to declare bitcoin as dead, try to tell people not to use bitcoin. and instead put people at risk of being watched or have their funds controlled by others, for their own malicious greedy motives.
because they dont care about other people. they only care about getting profit at any cost as long as that cost is passed to others and they can get away with it

take their silly agenda of saying bitcoin cant scale for daily use by the unbanked. yet they then WANT bitcoin to be spammed up with useless mixers tx's and data that cant account for its good money limited supply accounting mechanism. thus making bitcoin useless as good money so they can declare their crappy flawed altnet is deemed (by them) bitcoin 2.0 that everyone should use.

back to the point though
ignore the silly mindset of a few idiots.. and realise once and for all
using a mixer WILL GET YOUR RED FLAGGED and surveilled

yawn
my coins are not KYC linked nor surveilled by default

BUSINESSES may link my id from one site to another. businesses may keep records of how many sex dolls your chums buy.. but none of that is put on the blockchain

emphasis the blockchain does not store data about how many sex dolls doomad/blackhat/oeloe/or yourself buy
again emphasis the problem is not the blockchain. its the middle man services that are the points of failure

also you just got caught out exaggerating things with the "surveilled by default" nonsense
maybe if you can back it up by some regulation/business policy.. then you might have a point.
yet the funny part is that regulations actually show that its users of coin mixers that get red flagged and surveilled by default, not the normal people just doing normal peer to peer transactions

heck there are some mixers that dont care to such an extent they want peoples coins red flagged as being mixed.. they use the vanity address "1chip" to actually super highlight that people have used a mixer

...
anyways. i set the challenge to o_e_l_e_o .. but ill now ask you.
find me on the blockchain, find what my birth registered name is and my location

my birth certificate is in a government registry, my bank knows it. and some exchanges know it, my name is on drivers licence which another government registry has. same with passport.
the tax office and so many places know my real life name.

but they dont know where my hoards of coins are nor do those who know where my hoards are know my life info.
so if you want to pretend you can prove it wrong. come on tell me my life story via the blockchain

show me a transaction that reveals my info.
find anything about me via a bitcoin transaction. anything

...
oh and your buddies are trying hard to kiss ass the owners of chainanalysis. so how about ask your buddies you pal around with on this forum for a character reference. but first. you might want to prove that you can find real life info about the most irritating person your chums hate so much, just to prove you have the skills required for the job you want

so the challenge is set.
please give it a try and if you succeed you probably could add it to your resume that you were able to dox me as a credible provable skill they would want to pay you for.
so go at it

prove that blockchain is broke and reveals private info..

it was more of a tongue in cheek thing(funny thing) about saying you pretend to ask nothing about the customer. but then need to know where to deliver it to, thus asking something about the customer.

it was not about the legality of double checking against some ID database how valid the customer info was.

the actual issue is by running more mixers and fooling people into using them. more coin gets 'tainted' with mixer spam. and then all the other services
"If the VASP cannot manage and mitigate the risks posed by engaging in such activities, then the VASP should not be permitted to engage in such activities."

in short and for the nth time.. using a mixer actually causes more issues than not using one, because using a mixer does raise a red flag

https://www.fatf-gafi.org/media/fatf/documents/recommendations/Updated-Guidance-VA-VASP.pdf
VA = Virtual Asset - VASP = Virtual Asset Service Provider - AEC = Anonymity-Enhanced Cryptocurrency
shhh dont tell certain people but LN is listed in the quote above, along with mixers and things like monero and liquid

shh dont tell certain people but altnets like LN, liquid are also deemed as suspicious, but shh dont tell then or the will cry and get angry

bitcoin does not ask you to be naked
bitcoin does not even ask you what is in your pockets or what colour underwear you have on

the problem is not at the bitcoin level.
its at the business/service level..

wake up

by using a mixer. you are literally putting a flashlight on yourself and shouting look at me, im doing something shady.
which obviously is going to trigger a response

so again..
dont do things that are going to get you watched.
if you avoid such things then you can preserve your privacy

EG.
im not on a watchlist. no physical pair of eyes has investigated my exchange account.
yes my transactions data is on a database(congratulations you finally learned what a ledger is)
but no one is physically able to look at the blockchain and find out all the products i purchased or where they got delivered to or what colour underwear i have on right now.. and i dont use a mixer

however if i did use a mixer. i would get flagged by an exchange/chain analysis and i would then have to explain the origins of funds and have to be questioned about other personal details
not due to the taint being from some ransomware/hack. but purely due to being linked to a mixer
where by i then have to prove my pre-mixed funds were not criminally obtained. which becomes a harder job to do if you cant prove funds(x) that went into a mixer is funds(y) coming out of a mixer are related to me and are not some other transaction of similar amount randomly plucked from a block explorer.

do you get it yet. mixers and privacy tools cause exchanges to question you more.. not less

bitcoin does not ask for your wifes bra size or how often you had sex in the last year. so stop pretending that using bitcoin is like going through a airport metal detector naked.. because its not

..
ok here is a challenge about privacy for o_e_l_e_o
show me where on bitcoins blockchain that any transaction of your reveals that your professionals skills is in the medical sector

now show me a service to which you personally gave out personal info about yourself, to which i read and now know about you

and now go back to the blockchain and again try to find me a transaction that repeats your omission of your private life..where by that omission appears on the blockchain after you announced it..

hmm
cant find anything on the blockchain.. hmm i wonder why(rhetorical)

now here is the next challenge
i know i have revealed i live in the UK
but try and use bitcoins blockchain data to find my home address. what vehicle i use, what where my last X products i bought using bitcoin. what colour underwear i am currently wearing.
try and find out something about me using bitcoin blockchain data.
something unique that is not publicly known from other sources

goodluck
well should i need to wish you luck? i mean i never use a mixer so it must make it really easy for you to learn everything about me, right?

oh then go check this out and see if mixers help you hide or get you noticed more
especially read the last quoted passage
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5409206.msg60729993#msg60729993

have a great day

governments were not directly targetting mixers as it was delegated down to exchanges to blacklist and target mixers
and to put users of mixers onto watchlists and investigate and report users to the government
(standard MSB policy handbook of assigning risk to certain activities of suspicion of money laundering)

but when big deals of large illicit amounts are involved. then the government intervenes directly

LN is its own network. it can AND DOES bridge to many blockchains/networks.

if a USD stable coins wants to bridge to LN and create channels, it can do. all it needs is a mechanism to lock stable coins for a time period so that users on the ln network can trust the coins cant be randomly moved without some form of time delay so that they can sleep at night and not have to 24/7 watch for random broadcasts

LN is not reliant on bitcoin and bitcoin is not reliant on LN

other altcoins function on the LN network and users can easily use their nodes to connect and bridge to other networks.

the silly fools promoting LN forget to actually advertise LN for its actual job and function. and try too hard to brand steal bitcoin as the only function of LN or pretend that LN is bitcoin2.0

LN does not require bitcoin devs or the bitcoin network to change in any way for the LN network to be bridgeable to other networks. its for LN devs to sort out with the other networks

you might hear some of the LN fans cry they want it and some other fans cry they dont want it.. the main reason to make it a contention off adding USD support is that routers facilitating funds movements on behalf of other people for a fee(yep the only function of LN) then become money facilitators/money services businesses. which means they then have to be licenced or shut down if they have not registered

some countries already have these laws that apply to crypto so some routers established in those countries are already going to get hit by regulations if they continue to operate as routers for cryptocoins.

so just watch out for what you wish for. it might bite you in the ass in the long run