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May 11, 2024, 03:33:07 PM *
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81  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My Dreams of a Bitcoin Circular Economy in my Country on: March 30, 2024, 11:58:12 PM
There's way too many reasons why this dream will remain a dream. Governments and banks will simply not allow it to happen and they have a lot of tools at their disposal to stop widespread adoption. But they don't even do that right now because of another biggest obstacle in Bitcoin adoption - people themselves don't want it. Bitcoin is too complex and too risky for them and offers no big advantages from the point of view of average citizen. They are fine with their bank handling their funds, and they are fine with inflation because either they don't have a lot of money in savings or because they invest their money.

The most realistic adoption that can happen is that there will be simply more places that accept Bitcoin and you would be able to make a large share of your typical spendings with Bitcoin if you choose so.
82  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: what would be the implications of reducing blocktime to 5m and size/reward by 2x on: March 30, 2024, 11:46:52 PM
It would have the same effect as doubling the block size in terms of blockchain capacity and storage requirement for full nodes. And that would be pretty bad because the blockchain is already large enough that people who don't have a lot of storage space on their computers don't run a full node anymore.

Also, Bitcoin confirmations at 10 minute block times are considered to be quit secure, some businesses accept 1 confirmation transactions, typically it's 3 at most. With faster block times the demand for confirmations will rise, and it would take the same time to actually have your transactions finalized, despite them technically being confirmed faster. Ethereum or Litecoin have much faster block times, yet when you send them to exchange the exchange asks for more than 10 confirmations, so it often times take as much time as depositing Bitcoin.
83  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How would you dispose of a steel plate seed backup? on: March 30, 2024, 11:29:10 PM
I'm disappointed that almost every other post suggests to just move coins to a new wallet. That's not the solution to what I asked. I specifically asked about a steel plate seed backup, because there could be lots of different situations where you might want to only destroy this specific backup and not moving the coins to a new one.

Imagine that you are traveling abroad and took your steel plate backup with you, and suddenly the situation in the country you are visiting started deteriorating due to war, or coup attempt, or terrorist attack, etc. And there's a lot of security checks all of a sudden and you no longer feel safe carrying your steel plate. But you have another plate in your home country and other backups. So destroying the one you have won't lock you out of your coins. And you can't even securely create a new wallet because you don't have access to an air-gapped PC, only your always-online phone. This is a situation where you'd want to destroy your steel plate.

But even just destroying your physical record of your empty wallet could still be a strong enough reason to want to destroy the seed, so it shouldn't be brushed off by these "just move the coins to a new wallet" replies.
84  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How would you dispose of a steel plate seed backup? on: March 29, 2024, 11:53:52 PM
The simplest option is transferring the coins on that wallet seed phrase to a new wallet, this way even if the seed phrase is detected it will be useless to the person in its possession.

It's not totally useless because it contains your transaction history and you might want it not fall into other's hands. Also there could be situations where it's not an option - you want to destroy just a backup, not the wallet. Imagine you have two backups, one at your current location and another at a remote and safe location. Let's say you are moving from your current location to some new one where you wouldn't keep your steel backup with you because the new place is not safe enough. So you'd want to destroy the backup at your current location, while still relying on the backup at your other safe location.
85  Economy / Economics / Re: How Bitcoin Supercycle could become reality on: March 29, 2024, 11:51:32 PM
This may appear so at the first glance. But first, Bitcoin is evolving, there are bit improvements like Segwit and Taproot, and the most important milestones are second layers like LN and sidechains (even if there is still no decentralized BTC sidechain, rollups on Ethereum are making progress in this field).

SegWit and Taproot didn't change much for an average user, and LN is still so far from being "officially" launched that it might as well be ignored. Bitcoin's scalability hasn't changed much from its release, and features for an average person too.

Second, I believe the perceived progress in internet technology is also not that significant as it seems, the "progress" here has much more to do with adoption (e.g. in the realm of social media). Facebook or Instagram are technically not that different from a web forum of ca. 1996, it's basically a HTML frontend with a database containing messages and a bit of JavaScript. Of course hardware improvements have made new developments possible or better, like AI and more realistic visual stuff (videogames, ultra HD imagery). In fact, tools like ChatGPT, DALL-E etc. are the only field where I really could see "revolutionary" changes in the last 20-25 years. But in general: the web/tech business models which weren't working in the 90s mainly work now because the Internet is used by the majority of the population, not so much because of technological advancements.

Facebook and Instagram weren't possible in 1996, because Internet speeds couldn't handle even a few pictures, needless to say things like video streaming. And forums back then were rather small things with thousands of users while Facebook has billions. And developing such platforms wasn't possible 30 years ago because web browsers couldn't do a lot of things they do today. So in my view the progress of web technologies is far bigger than the progress of Bitcoin.
86  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / How would you dispose of a steel plate seed backup? on: March 29, 2024, 11:34:45 PM
This thread sparked a question in my head. Imagine that you are in a situation where you need to dispose of you wallet seed backup, but it is etched on a steel plate - how would you do it? The easiest answer is likely acid, but not everyone has access to it, and depending on the steel plate, it might be even highly resistant to corrosion. Another option is to damage it mechanically - in many of these steel plate products you are supposed to etch the words, so it should be possible to erase them or render unrecognizable. But it's likely hard to do thoroughly and traces of the words could remain.

Any more ideas?
87  Economy / Speculation / Re: are you expecting Bitcoin to hit $400,000 after the bull run. on: March 28, 2024, 11:59:49 PM
That's waaaaaay too high, I'd be surprised if it even touches $200k. $150k would be a good result for an ATH peak, but it might even be lower at $125k, because there's a pattern that each ATH gets relatively closer to the previous one. There was a $1,300 peak, then $20,000 and then only $69,000  - and here people hoped that Bitcoin would go above $100,000 because going from $20k to $69k is not as big increase as going from $1.3k to $20k.
88  Economy / Economics / Re: How Bitcoin Supercycle could become reality on: March 28, 2024, 11:55:11 PM


As I wrote in the OP, I think everything depends on the kind of adoption we'll see in the coming years. If Bitcoin isn't able to convince the world that it has real value, and only remains an asset people buy to "make money" and get rich fast, then a super bear market is completely possible.


This has been my fear for a long time - if most of Bitcoin's value come from "buying it to sell later", then sooner or later it will crash very hard until its value mostly will reflect its utility.

I guess that in this case Ethereum could surpass Bitcoin as leading cryptocurrency for a while, because its smart contract model is rooted deeper in "real economy" due to the usage to crowdfund tech companies.


Ethereum is far worse than BTC due to its high centralization, and its utility is actually fake, because it just provides crowdfunding and marketplace for more useless tokens.

Such a super bear market could however also be an opportunity: if the speculative capital is driven out, but Bitcoin's USPs remain uncontested (uncensorable, borderless digital money), then the supercycle could even materialize after a super bear market with prices of let's say <$5000. Basically that would be similar to the dot-com/tech bubble, which lasted a little bit less than 10 years until it popped (early 90s to 2000/2001), followed by a depression but then sustainable growth after 2009/2010 when the business models that were still an illusion in the 90s and early 2000s finally began to work.

The difference between crypto and dotcom is that the Internet technology was making constant and fast progress every year, while crypto has been stagnant for a long time. Bitcoin is not too different from Bitcoin of 10 years ago, and altcoins just invent new ways to sell premined tokens with no real use - DeFi, NFT, ICO and so on is essentially the same.
89  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Some Crypto investor beginners are acting professional impacting wrong knowledge on: March 28, 2024, 11:41:38 PM
TBH if someone wants to promote something to you, and you know that the only just started, then it's your own responsibility to take everything they tell you with a grain of salt, since it should be obvious that someone who just started is not a good teacher themselves.

And I don't think many people are intentionally trying to get others into crypto as beginners. They probably talk about what they have been busy with to their friends, the friends get interested and ask more questions.
90  Economy / Economics / Re: SWIFT prepares global platform for bitcoin alternatives on: March 26, 2024, 11:47:37 PM


Your opinion - how could this affect the global banking system ? In your opinion - is it recognition of cryptocurrencies or something else ?

We can't know without knowing the implementation details. Are those CBDCs have architecture similar to decentralized cryptocurrencies, or are they just government-run payment systems that exist on a government-owned server architecture? And what would SWIFT offer - a system where you can make any transaction without censorship, or will SWIFT have to approve every transaction?

Can't even call it a Bitcoin alternative if it has none of the properties of Bitcoin.
91  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: what would I do, if I paid for coin and the seller refused to release it. on: March 26, 2024, 11:38:42 PM
something triggered me to ask this question, As a new trader As I am, we know very well that binance is no longer in Nigeria any more.

If you're going to trade on another platform, you should study the rules of your platform and how they handle such situations. And not only read the official guideline, but also look for discussions of such cases on that platform that happened to other traders, because on practice things could be handle a bit differently from what is publicly stated.

No one can answer your question in general, because platforms can have different rules.
92  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What are the pros and cons of gold compared to bitcoin? on: March 26, 2024, 11:31:30 PM
The biggest advantage of gold is that it has thousands of years of history behind it, and we know that unless its supply suddenly becomes overflooded, it won't drop in value much. But Bitcoin's value is not understood by anyone, it goes up and down, and so far the long-term trend has been positive, but it could just as easily reverse. To put it simply, Bitcoin is many times more risky than gold. That's why Bitcoin is not a reliable store of value right now, but rather a high risk investment.
93  Economy / Economics / Re: How Bitcoin Supercycle could become reality on: March 25, 2024, 11:58:01 PM
I remember there was a lot of hype about the supposed supercycle in 2020-2021, and then it still player out the good old pattern of a big bull run ending with big crash. So the key word here is that a supercycle "could" become a reality, but the probability of it is unknown. Could be high, could be low.

But my worry is that there's also the probability of the opposite of the supercycle - super bear market that could happen if investors and traders get bored of Bitcoin and move on to something different, something completely unrelated to cryptocurrency. With a lot of money leaving the market and no new investments, there good be a very long depression with the price falling down by 80-90%. Essentially it would mean that majority of the Bitcoin market history was a big long bubble, and the bear markets were just corrections of this long mania phase.

The probability of this doomsday scenario is just as unknown as the probability of a supercycle.
94  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Do you think merit is by chance or lengthy article? on: March 25, 2024, 11:46:56 PM
Luck could indeed be a factor, as a person who would merit your post might just not read it or be out of merit, etc. But it affects everyone equally and you can't do anything about it, so you can just not worry about it. Length is also a part of quality. Posts that are just one short sentance rarely get merit because they are rarely qualify as "quality" - they don't provide unique or rare insight. But long posts are not automatically quality posts - there are many-many long garbage posts that are hard to read and are full of useless information.

But quality is not the only factor that determines merit gains. It's easier to get merit by posting what people would like to hear than by posting something that upsets them.
95  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Are NFTs just marketing gimmicks with no added value? on: March 25, 2024, 11:33:07 PM

You might say that the difference is that the transaction can be done anonymously, but since NFTs are essentially legal contracts, and contracts require known identities to hold up in court, then it would seem as though an NFT itself doesn't add any value, since you need to add identity to the contract anyhow, at which point there's no added value to using an NFT.



You are quite correct, although NFTs aren't even legal contracts or any contracts, they are just tokens on blockchain that have unique identifiers and that's it. The people behind them told that they give ownership, but ownership is not actually ownership without having any way to enforce it. Bitcoin is self-enforcing, the system doesn't need any outside help, but NFTs are not. You can put a link or even a file on blockchain, but it won't stop anyone from copying it, so it needs the help of actual legal courts, which is the opposite of what Bitcoin has achieved.
96  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How safe is saving screenshots of useful information and BTC transactions? on: March 24, 2024, 11:30:17 PM
* My question is, how safe is it to keep screenshots of Bitcoin/crypto transactions and useful information, on ones device?



As you know, all transactions are public and don't contain any private data like private keys or real world identity. So just knowing about transactions will not cause big problems on its own. And also the phone is supposed to only be accessible to the owner, so if someone else has access - be it physical or through malware, they could do a lot more harm than just finding screenshots of Bitcoin transactions. Just inform you friend to not take screenshots of private keys and seed and he should be fine.
97  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Does Bitcoin have the potential to impact climate change? on: March 23, 2024, 11:58:59 PM
Even if ALL of Bitcoin's electricity consumption was generated by burning coal, that still would have been a tiny share of the global carbon emissions to the point where removing it wouldn't cause any observable difference as it would be within the statistical margin of error. But those who use energy as an argument against Bitcoin don't care about the numbers, they just need something for their accusations, so they say that big energy use is bad.
98  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Blocksize War is still ongoing. on: March 23, 2024, 11:57:03 PM
Bitcoin Cash scales, and I have my private keys; I don’t need to trust anyone. However, the mining incentive and fees are near to negligible, making the network vulnerable to attacks.



No it doesn't, there no such thing as scaling on blockchain. The world, or even just small country, or even just a single city with a few million people needs a capacity for many millions of transactions per day. It's impossible to effectively process and store such amounts of data on a home computer, you need a specialized server equipment for that. So any solution that tells to just increase blocksize will inevitably turn into a network of one or a few large servers controlled by an entity that could be blocked or physically raided by law enforcement.
99  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Dangerous insights on bitcoin Investor on: March 23, 2024, 11:52:58 PM
It's extremely messed up to call the police on your own child if that child is not causing any violence and doing something truly bad. I think most parents in this world wouldn't do such thing even if they'd thought that crypto is something illegal.

But this story is another example why you shouldn't tell everyone about your crypto endeavors, even to your family, or maybe especially to your family, because there's lots of ways how it can create tensions in the future.
100  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Am in dire need of assistance for my improvement on: March 22, 2024, 11:50:31 PM
Please kindly recommend me books and guide on how to be better.
Thanks in advance

You can't really learn how to be a high rank forum member (and join a signature campaign, because let's be honest that's what you want). It's eaither something that comes naturally because you are enjoying it, or it does not. If you are forcing yourself to make posts, to chase "quality", then you won't ever be a good forum user. A good forum user is first of all just a Bitcoin enthusiast. If you're only interested in Bitcoin because its price is growing up - that's not enthusiasm.
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