3. Divergence between price and network activityThis suggests that there is a distinction between the two indicators, and that their movements are opposed. For instance, asset prices rise but network activity falls. The movement's direction is different because we can only state that the token's movement is healthy if the price value rises and network activity rises as well. it is increasing for a reason, and that reason is that the project is in high demand. In crypto, we can see network activity in onchain statistics, such as transaction volume and active wallets. The development of new wallets is increasing, which suggests that there are more users coming in or keeping tokens. The network cost is rising, as is the hashrate for proof-of-work coins such as Bitcoin, and the staking metrics for proof-of-consensus networks are rising as more individuals stake tokens. However, if there is little network activity and the price rises, it does not rise, and there is not much happening in the onchain activity, indicating a divergence in the price movement in the network activity. Then you should probably consider taking a profit now, because the price pump that occurs for the token you own could be caused by market makers or hundreds of individuals. And, sooner or later, the price will come down. Hope this will give help additional knowledge to everyone  Network activity is not a good indicator because it's not economic activity, it's just speculators or it could even be fake activity created by the devs. If fees are close to zero, it costs nothing to spam transactions. People should be really asking whether the coin is used in real world for real applications and not just trading it on exchanges, because the answer is always "no", and useless coins will always fall to zero in the long run. |
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24yo female: "i have $0k but i have my cheap out of fashion shoes and a smelly used dress i shouldnt wear again"
24yo male: "still hoarding crypto, i could buy 4 rolexes and still have money left"
If that crypto is just a bag of altcoins and he didn't sell during the bull market, it doesn't matter that he had a huge unrealized gain, because the bear market will wipe out all those gains for good and the coins will never recover. And many crypto investors, especially beginners, do in fact hoard hyped altcoins instead of BTC, because they expect quick profits and BTC seems too slow for them. |
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In 2017 he didn't know how to profit off Bitcoin so he criticized it so that investors would avoid it and instead buy his product. That changed when he found a way to make money with Bitcoin in a safe way - instead of buying it, he sells a service for investing in it. Like they say - during gold rush, sell shovels.
Maybe other haters like Jamie Dimon will find ways to participate in this ecosystem, maybe they won't - why does it matter? You shouldn't depend on their opinion.
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Bitcoin is not only an investment but also a currency. It has liquidity, meaning you can easily buy or sell it on the market, so it's not a problem if you pay with it - you can always compensate by buying more BTC with fiat. And in fact it's good to pay with BTC, because it gives BTC more value as it increases its adoption.
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Bitcoin is always full of surprises so the rally might actually start earlier than expected. If I wanted to enter this market, I would just make a lump sum investment today and take profits deep into the bull market. Maybe there will be a correction soon and there will be a better price to enter, but the price might as well pump and the opportunity to buy the cheapest pre-bull run coins will be gone.
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Bitcoin failed as a currency because it can't process a lot of transactions per second and the precise is too volatile for economic planning. But instead Bitcoin thrived as an investment, and already on this forum most users are interested in its price growing rather than using it as a currency. The anti-fiat and anti-bank rhetoric is mostly just empty talk for hyping up the market.
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From blockchain-based games to earning BTC while conquering virtual worlds, the possibilities are endless. 🌐💰
The possibilities might be endless but the reality is that blockchain games have tiny playerbases and most of them are just poor people trying to make money, which is not a profitable model. And it has been pretty clear that the gaming community is not intrested in crypto - look at online reactions on reddit or twitter when some company tried to add NFTs to their games - it was always met with overwhelming negativity. |
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It's just YouTube, but today I ran across a video that mentioned a bitcoin HODL tax.
In order to stop bitcoin, authorities would have to shut down the internet which is impossible. So I predict that their next move is to launch enormous taxes to discourage people from owning bitcoin, and prevent mass adoption as competition for their corrupted CBDC's that still have to be launched.
In order to stop Bitcoin they could simply close all the centralized exchanges and order banks to freeze Bitcoin-related transactions. But instead they just approved Bitcoin ETFs. Where's the logic in that? They hate Bitcoin so hard that they will allow institutions to get involved with it? Or maybe, just maybe, they don't really care about Bitcoin, and CBDC is just a thing a few low-rank people from the government talk about to make it seem like they do some progress. |
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My trust in Bitcoin grew exponentially when I knew the price history of Bitcoin.
Besides other things, history is one main thing used in technical analysis. You can't analyze a market if you don't know the history of that market. History helps you determine how that market behaves at different points in time.
Technical analysis is just extrapolating data and looking for patterns without understanding why the price moves. Which is quite bad, because market conditions change, so these extrapolations often fail. People can find success in trading stocks or commodities if they have a good sense of the forces that move those markets, if they have deep analytical skills. But it's hard to apply the same to Bitcoin because of how purely speculative this market is. The price goes up and down not because something with Bitcoin changes but just because some traders decided to buy or sell big. |
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Bitcoin can drop to zero if it will die - meaning everyone would stop using it, or it would become unusable. But it's more likely that Bitcoin would just lose over 99% of its value if people would lose interest in it, or some major flaws would become uncovered. Because it's actually quite hard to lose all value, even beanie babies still have some value, but it's nothing compared to their peak.
So saying that Bitcoin can go to zero is not a good critique, but saying that it's fundamentals are not clearly understood and the future is not certain is a far better critique.
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Bitcoin is a currency and currencies are supposed to have an exchange rate. It can slightly differ between different exchanges, but only slightly. Although I remember seeing some exchange services that offered the price wildly below the market, like 30% lower, but I don't know who would even use them - probably some newbies who just stumbled upon them on google without doing proper research. But most people who are selling BTC will be looking for the most optimal price, so the price in general will always converge between different exchanges.
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I would buy a single room appartment and become a landlord to have that sweet-sweet passive income for the rest of my life. Although we are supposed to have a bull run quite soon, so selling BTC today is not the smartest decision. The price could easily double or triple when it will reach the peak of the bull run, so your question is a bit too early. But it's still an important topic, a reminder to people that taking profits is what investment is about - you have made no money if you didn't actually sell.
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Did she buy some BTC or has BTC-related stocks? Because every time someone influential starts hyping Bitcoin, it's probably because they got skin in the game and try to leverage their influence. But remember that these people always take profits, they don't "hodl", they invest. She'll probably sell long before Bitcoin will be even 1/4 close to that price target, while retail investors will pump the price waiting for these moon predictions.
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I'm actually surprised that Bitcoin reached this level, because I was expecting a correction to happen much sooner, but now I kinda don't want to believe in major correction and hope that ETF and halvening hype will keep the corrections small and short while the up movements will be massive. Although the previous bull market was wild with unprecedented deep corrections, so this is on the table now too, but seeing below $30k again would be quite sad.
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There is no single cashless society and cashless societies form for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it's because of government regulations that ban large cash transactions, and sometimes it's because banks offer such convenient and lucrative options that it's more optimal to pay with them rather than with cash.
What this means for Bitcoin is that cashless society could be both good or bad for Bitcoin. If governments don't like cash, they would regulate Bitcoin payments for the same reasons. But if people are used to electronic payments, they would be more likely to try Bitcoin, especially if Bitcoin will have some sort of edge.
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The best way to trade if to do long-term trades that follow the cycle. Buying during bear market, selling during bull market. Instead of buying during dips and trying to sell tips and repeat this process in a span of weeks or even days. That's surely a good way to lose money quick, because of how unpredictable Bitcoin is in short term.
Just hodling is not a bad idea, but I regret not selling close to ATH and buying back at the bottom. Two times I got greedy and expected a way higher ATH than what actually happened. Hopefully this time I won't make such mistake.
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In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.
Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."
Pretty sure that S2F was predicting above $100k BTC during the last cycle which of course didn't happen. It's just like those moon math charts - they eventually fail and get updated with new price history to extrapolate, and then fail again anyway. I have my own theory that the price growth is slowing down from cycle to cycle because emission has less and less impact on the supply, so for having some huge price ranges like $500k there needs to be a surge in demand. Here people would start talking about being hedge against inflation, replacing fiat and so on, but Bitcoin failed to perfectly counter inflation and negative economic events, in fact it went down many times during those periods, because it's a high risk asset. |
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This is why Warren Buffet has no respect for crypto investors, they don't earn their wealth by making smart decisions, they just happen to invest in the correct coin at the correct time and sell it. Guessing which coin will pump next is really close to gambling, because it doesn't depend on any objective factors like network stats, adoption, project development - instead it's just hype and bubble.
No wonder that a lot of people who got rich from crypto have no idea about basic finance management and are poised to lose big if hey won't learn.
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After the huge decrease of value most of the NFT ecosystem suffered I believe it will take literal years before the mainstream public could be willing to give it a try, a lot of people probably lost a lot of money buying "land" and "properties" in those metaverses and games.
It was the crypto whales who were heavily investing in expensive NFTs, not the people outside of crypto most of the time, and these whales could easily sustain huge losses from NFTs. For them it was just entertainment and a gamble to get even more rich, which some did by dumping their NFTs at the top of the bubble. The general public was never interested in them, gaming communities were very vocal that they will not tolerate NFTs in the games that they play, so large gaming studios quickly dropped their plans to make quick money on the hype, realizing that such integration would only backfire. |
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What if the dollar collapses?
What if it does not? US economy is still incredibly strong as keeps growing. Or what if USD collapses and takes Bitcoin down with it because investors decide to move to other asset, like gold or another national currency. We already saw some correlation between BTC and the US stock market. So be careful what you wish for. |
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