anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived. and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?
Fine, I'll do it. Loaded posted 07:12:33 UTC Buy was between 7:05 and 07:10 UTC (too lazy to narrow down further), therefore it isn't proof. Too bad, now we will never know for sure.  let's assume for a moment that Loaded meant way more than what he said. who is more likely to keep large amounts of fiat at Bitstamp, Pantera or some random internet guy name Loaded? and just how did Loaded initiate a wire, let's say Friday, not knowing 30K BTC would be up for sale on Sunday? pure luck? |
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This is the most plausible theory I've heard to date, Cypher. But let me get this straight: you're suggesting that the 30k wall belonged to a panicking early adopter and was in fact the "desert" that Pantera was after the entire time. Correct? So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time. Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time  ) correct. given that you believe there has been a manipulator taking down prices since June. Blitz, you know me better than that. back in 2011, i was the one arguing against any manipulation back then and ever since. this is the only event in which i've invoked a manipulator mechanism. and if there has been a manipulator, Pantera is the logical entity with the strategic positioning in place to pull it off. leave tons of BTC and fiat on the exchange in preparation and simply sell down the market until the market capitulates, then buy back. rather simple, really, which is also why i like it. |
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Off topic: I could not RT you, I unfollowed and followed back and now I can! Weird  Stephen Gornick pm'd me this morning and informed me about the retweet problem. so i figured out how to undo that setting. sorry! i vaguely recall someone using the initials "RT" in a message, was that you? i just realized that means "retweet". |
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how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely. It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit. With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history... Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down. Actually it was within a few minutes. how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night? gox wires didn't work that way. workers were off on weekends. Maybe it was monday in whatever part of the world he was in at that point. who knows how to translate Slovenian time to forum time? anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived. and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall? |
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Blitz is part of it  Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=809325.0I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right? just b/c you present a small piece of evidence about a certain ban i wasn't aware of, doesn't make the whole theory go out the window. there has been a NOTICEABLE drop in the trolling posts since Sunday. sure, there are a few guys floating around but they could just be altscam or POS proponents, who knows. More evidence? I forgot, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=159160 was also banned (temporarily). Name some others that suspiciously discontinued their activity, perhaps they too were banned recently? PS: fallling is by far the worst spammer of the bunch, so I consider him the prime indicator in this matter. how many of the trolls did you ban? can you name them? that doesn't negate falllling's registration date of May 27, 2014, btw. |
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how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely. It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit. With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history... Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down. Actually it was within a few minutes. how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night? gox wires didn't work that way. workers were off on weekends. |
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Blitz is part of it Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=809325.0I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right? just b/c you present a small piece of evidence about a certain ban i wasn't aware of, doesn't make the whole theory go out the window. there has been a NOTICEABLE drop in the trolling posts since Sunday. sure, there are a few guys floating around but they could just be altscam or POS proponents, who knows. |
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here's the BearWhale address, which suggests to me the seller wasn't involved in a conspiracy:  |
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this is interesting. falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014. i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:  Here's another one. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=159160little harder to explain his register date but quite suspicious that he stops posting on Oct 4. they just disappeared (were dismissed). |
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Well, my theory is just pointing out that placing the wall originally at 280 (where it was destabilizing the market), then moving to 320 (where it was getting action), then to 300 isn't rational *unless* you're trying to set up some OTC trade in the other direction and need a "stable" multi-hour average on Bitstamp as a pricing reference for the OTC trade. So to fit that with your theory, you could still argue that it was Pantera executing the final load-up via such an OTC trade, and the 30k wall was theirs and simply necessary for the price-fix. Still fits with your point asking who would trust an unregulated Slovenian exchange with 30kBTC...
Anyway, I honestly don't know what to think. I don't really understand moving the wall from $320 to $300 outside of the price-fix OTC-buy theory which seems a little complicated for my usual liking. But, as I repeatedly say, I'm not a trader, so I have little instinct for how much shenanigans like that actually happen. Maybe it's more common than I think.
6 hours on a Sunday is not enough time, nor even a possible time, to set up an OTC trade of that magnitude. those things take days, if not weeks to negotiate and setup for that amount. if you look at the address and read Dan Moorehead's tweets, the 30K BTC were transferred to Bitstamp just before the wall went up on Sunday and the coins originating from that address were accumulated from April 2013. |
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this is interesting. falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014. i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June: |
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how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely. It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit. With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history... Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down. |
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the main thing here is, Pantera essentially controls the #1 exchange that the whole community keys off of. and they probably can see the internal order books. why not manipulate it for the chance to make extraordinary life changing profits?
Now I see what you mean. I completely forgot that Pantera invested in Bitstamp. Do they have majority share? as far as i know, they are the only investment fund with a stake in Bitstamp. |
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imho, when someone is about to sell a major btc chunk (more than tens of thousands of btc in one go) and it was agreed to do this deal on a specific date, and since we talking about a 10 month downtrend, it is hard to imagine that this person would not insist on some -at least weekly- average price.
my theory doesn't depend on a cooperative 30K BTC seller. i think Pantera forced the price down since June looking for a weak hand whale to capitulate so that they can pick up cheap coins. |
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If this we're the case I would think that 30K wall would have been eaten much faster (by pantera), but as far as I can tell it was chipped away by many "smaller" buyers. I can't help but think pantera would have just panic bought the whole block if all this was the case.
that's a good point. in fact, i was right there with everyone encouraging a group effort to knock it down. of course, it's possible that Pantera was in fact buying it in small, medium, and larger chunks along with the final takedown. I thought about this too, it would be ballsy not to just panic buy the whole block, if I were running pantera, I would be too afraid of some other bullwhale scooping up the cheap coins I had worked so hard to extract from the market all month. maybe they thought they might be able to get the seller to drop the wall price down even further and then when it didn't budge, they pulled the final trigger to take it all down and call it quits. the main thing here is, Pantera essentially controls the #1 exchange that the whole community keys off of. and they probably can see the internal order books. why not manipulate it for the chance to make extraordinary life changing profits? |
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i'm aware of that. so why republish it 2d after the selloff? |
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how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
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