Corrected and updated.
New exponent is based on [1 june =  $2k, 1 july = $3k] assumption.

The second graph is like the first, but it shows the percentage of the trend line(s).

Update.

Trying a different exponent (blue line) to describe the recent trend.





Disclaimer: as usual, don't take this too seriously. I'm experimenting just for fun.

Update. Everything's fine so far.

Update. We're closer to the red line, but still above it.

I'm OK with that direction.

BBC News, about the crazy guy with 18 bitcoins: 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/39154348/i-bought-bitcoins-in-2011---now-theyre-worth-19000

Hopefully, the craziness of 2013/2014 is behind us.

Last 2 years is a long enough and quiet enough period that we could start looking for patterns.

Real price as a percentage of our low estimate.

Exponential growth based on low prices, ignoring highs.

For data, I used BTC-e prices from bitcoinity. Two datapoints are enough to define an exponent, so I choose two dates during relatively low/quiet times:

2015 oct 1, $235

2016 oct 1, $608

And here's the result:



So a pessimist (who believes in exponential growth ) should expect $2000 at the very end of 2017, and $5000 at the end of 2018.

Enjoy!