Re: [AUCTION] 13Gh/s ASICMiner Block Erupter Blade. Starts @41btc

[prophetx]

So: the bolded part of your reply is a delusion. That won't happen, and if you are so sure that you will get ROI in 8-10 months, I propose you an escrowed bet. I bet 10BTC that a 13GH/s blade won't be able to mine 50BTC in 10 months. Are you in?

[/quote]

Yea I am sure a guy selling his hw to make ends meet is going to take a 10 btc bet... lmao....

[jspielberg]

No offense but the numbers look way too optimistic to me... there is just no way they are going to get 40+BTC on 13GH/s.

I can see "if you are lucky" 25BTC left in the life of these blades, if they start mining tomorrow.
I created a google spreadsheet in my admittedly pessimistic posting:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236050.msg2494899#msg2494899

The exponential curve fitted by Wolfram Alpha seemed too low, so I increased the exponential slightly. 

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=exponential+fit+%7B28.19%2C2968775%7D%2C%7B40.88%2C3275465%7D%2C%7B65%2C4847647%7D%2C%7B87.9%2C6695826%7D%2C%7B112.11%2C8974296%7D%2C%7B124.59%2C10076293%7D%2C%7B137.2%2C11187257%7D%2C%7B161%2C15605633%7D%2C%7B172%2C19339258%7D

That being said, AsicMiner is prepping their 200THs farm, and Avalon's manufacturing issues seems to have been worked out.  Major hash power is coming soon and this spreadsheet doesn't factor in any of it.  It just follows the exponential curve based on the block solutions starting in 2013.

In mining it is better to err on the side of pessimistic difficulty than bet on favorable.
Obviously, this exponential growth won't go on forever and I can't predict when it will stop... but I am pretty confident that it will continue to grow for the next 8 to 10 months.

I too am sorry for your loss.  If you can get more than 25-30BTC for your blade... consider yourself lucky and jump on it.

[wpgdeez]

You will be lucky to get 40 BTC in a month running 3 blades. Wish I never bought mine

[hamiltino]

ill offer 30BTC for it

[Mudbankkeith]

asic blade now 15 btc in canada

[CrashX]

Just sell it on eBay, they are going from 3500-10,000.

[pikeadz]

Just sell it on eBay, they are going from 3500-10,000.

Actually, they are going for $0 on ebay because all the buyers are scammers that will chargeback their paypal accounts and leave you with nothing.  It doesn't matter if the sale price is $10,000 or $100,000.  So if you like that sort of thing, and enjoy having your paypal account locked shortly thereafter because you sold bitcoin hardware, by all means, try to sell on ebay. 

[escrow.ms]

Just sell it on eBay, they are going from 3500-10,000.

Bro look at the date of thread and they are going for 10.25 BTC each now. 

[User705]

BUMP
Everyone read this and then think.  That guy bought it in hand and look how that worked out.  Now think about what you are spending for per-orders with murky months away delivery dates.