Gambler's fallacy, what do you think?

[worhiper_-_]

Many gamblers believe that getting further into a loss/win streak becomes less unlikely as the streak's number gets bigger. Gambler's fallacy says that each bet is calcuated individually and only it's chances of win/loss are the ones that count.

Disregard my silly definitions! Read the wikipedia page and tell us what you think about gambler's fallacy.

You can click on the image for a wikipedia link.

[pagalwana]

I believe ( even true ) that if you win 10 bets on 50% win chance then losing the 11th bet is also 50% , it doesnt reduce, but on the other hand its also that its hard to get 11 loses.

[ndnh]

It absolutely exists; I lost almost all my balance because of that. twice now.

I got too many 7s in roulettts and lost too a few days ago.(lucky this one was a bonus code)


Edit: You got that 'Gambler's fallacy says that' part wrong. It is just the opposite.

[worhiper_-_]

It absolutely exists; I lost almost all my balance because of that. twice now.

I got too many 7s in roulettts and lost too a few days ago.(lucky this one was a bonus code)


Edit: You got that 'Gambler's fallacy says that' part wrong. It is just the opposite.

It's called a fallacy for a reason. According to it, people believe that chances of something happening again become are reducing as it repeats while it's just the win/loss chances that should be taken into account individually for each bet.

But anyway, people shouldn't rely on my explaination, that's why I posted a wikipedia link.

[Pe4kin]

It's called, what You wrote is rigging the game.
Because the rules are not like that.

You probably forgot to mention that there is not 50% ?
There is also need for each bet to pay %.    

This % You didn't just slowly and takes money from the man who makes a bet.

Although I can offer to change the conditions of the game.
Let the tote asks first what falls combination. I make my own.
And then let himself throws a coin until then - until someone falls ?

[Light]

It absolutely exists; I lost almost all my balance because of that. twice now.

I got too many 7s in roulettts and lost too a few days ago.(lucky this one was a bonus code)


Edit: You got that 'Gambler's fallacy says that' part wrong. It is just the opposite.

Does not exist. Please look up variance or playing on a rigged site. The Gambler's Fallacy statement itself is correct.

According to what I learned, the users will lose in the end, assuming bankroll of player < house and there is a max bet limit.

The player will go on playing till he lose everything.             

I'm going to respond to this specific post - but anyone claiming that the users will lose in the long term with them having an "edge" against the house (assuming they are fair) doesn't understand basic probability.

First off, what is the long run?

When people refer to the long run - they might think 1 million events is long, maybe even 1 billion. Not so, long run means literally the largest number you could ever possibly think of (and yet still bigger than that) - better to think of it as infinity. Now the Law of Large Numbers - which has been proven both mathematically, logically and through modelling - means that as you approach an infinite number of events their outcomes will converge to statistical expectation.

Now, as a player in reality cannot play to infinite games - they will face a degree of variance. Variance is what causes random streaks of wins and losses - not random voodoo skill. This variance should decline as they play more and more games - eventually with enough games (enough being effectively infinity) they should come out ahead if they have a positive EV.

Hence, theoretically across a large number of events - an operator who offers +EV for their userbase can expect to lose money over time - although they could be extremely lucky and make a profit due to variance. But this variance WILL DECREASE, meaning with enough events the users can expect to profit.

This is the basis of why no casino/gambling site will ever offer +EV to users permanently (possibly short term to entice customers or they're rigged).

[fox19891989]

It absolutely exists; I lost almost all my balance because of that. twice now.

I got too many 7s in roulettts and lost too a few days ago.(lucky this one was a bonus code)


Edit: You got that 'Gambler's fallacy says that' part wrong. It is just the opposite.

If I were you, I would bet 7 when it hit 7 twice.

It is called luck, I usually use this strategies in dice, if I win, I would bet the same bet, if I lose, I bet the opposite.

I have successfully used this method to earn 10btc from dice within 1 week. 

[worhiper_-_]

It absolutely exists; I lost almost all my balance because of that. twice now.

I got too many 7s in roulettts and lost too a few days ago.(lucky this one was a bonus code)


Edit: You got that 'Gambler's fallacy says that' part wrong. It is just the opposite.

If I were you, I would bet 7 when it hit 7 twice.

It is called luck, I usually use this strategies in dice, if I win, I would bet the same bet, if I lose, I bet the opposite.

I have successfully used this method to earn 10btc from dice within 1 week. 

Any strategy is risky in luck based games. What was your original deposit that helped you earn 10 BTC?

[Ingatqhvq]

Well Gambler's Fallacy is derived from the law of large numbers. Of course if you flip a coin 10,000 times with all heads, the next flip is still a 50/50 but the odds of that happening are really low.

[fox19891989]

Any strategy is risky in luck based games. What was your original deposit that helped you earn 10 BTC?

I made about 50X of my deposit 

So my principal was about 0.2btc, it happened 1 year ago.

And this strategy is a gamble guru taught me, he earned XXX btc from dice.     You can try it 

In general, we can see some guys get 10 or more loss streak by autobet because they don't change luck. Very sad. They should use my strategy.

[worhiper_-_]

Any strategy is risky in luck based games. What was your original deposit that helped you earn 10 BTC?

I made about 50X of my deposit 

So my principal was about 0.2btc, it happened 1 year ago.

And this strategy is a gamble guru taught me, he earned XXX btc from dice.     You can try it 

In general, we can see some guys get 10 or more loss streak by autobet because they don't change luck. Very sad. They should use my strategy.

Rrrright...

[GannickusX]

Well Gambler's Fallacy is derived from the law of large numbers. Of course if you flip a coin 10,000 times with all heads, the next flip is still a 50/50 but the odds of that happening are really low.

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That would be the chances of getting 10.000 heads in a row if im not mistaken

[neoneros]

It is the reason why people lose their money. Martingale does not work. The goat behind the door does not care about previous choices and chances are reset every time you take a gamble. Unless it is rigged.

[pagalwana]

It is the reason why people lose their money. Martingale does not work. The goat behind the door does not care about previous choices and chances are reset every time you take a gamble. Unless it is rigged.

yes andits very unlikely to loose many times in a row but its yet not impossible.

[duckydonald]

I beleive in ebating the casion yo will need its bankroll plus another 35 percent more funds, to truly beat the house.

[GannickusX]

I beleive in ebating the casion yo will need its bankroll plus another 35 percent more funds, to truly beat the house.

You would only beat the casino if it had no max bet but pretty much all the casinos do have a max bet

[goose20]

Well Gambler's Fallacy is derived from the law of large numbers. Of course if you flip a coin 10,000 times with all heads, the next flip is still a 50/50 but the odds of that happening are really low.

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That would be the chances of getting 10.000 heads in a row if im not mistaken

WOW - you got soo close, you left out one 0.
Lol

[GannickusX]

Well Gambler's Fallacy is derived from the law of large numbers. Of course if you flip a coin 10,000 times with all heads, the next flip is still a 50/50 but the odds of that happening are really low.

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That would be the chances of getting 10.000 heads in a row if im not mistaken

WOW - you got soo close, you left out one 0.
Lol

Damn i knew the number of zeros were a little bit too small, thanks for the info

[twister]

Well fallacy or not, I do it because I don't see any other way of betting, if you're playing at 2x and you're aiming for above 50, keep going at it after several below 50 rolls seems like the only logical thing to do because it has to hit sometimes.

[Bitcoiner2015]

If something has a 50% chance of happening, it has a 50% chance of happening, what has happened beforehand makes no difference.