Gambler's fallacy, what do you think?

[GannickusX]

I think the gambler's fallacy theory could be applied to sportsbetting too because for example the France-Brazil game yesterday finished 1-3 and knowing that the last game in Brazil ended 3-0 I would have thought now it was time for France to win having less substitutes in the team but guess what it the stats don't matter and each event is one unaffected instance. And yes I lost my bet on France to win  

Gambler's fallacy theory is just for something random, Sports game is totally unrandom, it depends the ability of each player, you can't say the ability of each player is random.
 

There are still some chance in sports game. In basketball when you shoot the ball theres a chance it will spin off the backboard weirdly, you jump weirdly, your muscles might act a bit differently, there is so many variables. Theres always the edge that a team has of winning but it isn't predetermined.

Yes, there is chance, but how the first free throw bounced off the rim has absolutely nothing to do with how the second one will bounce off the rim (if it even hits the rim).

True, but its the same thing as this. if the first one doesn't go in the net then you might bet on the second one because "the odds have to be even right".
Also you CAN apply martingale to sports betting, if you lose your bet you keep doubling until you win, its still possible

Martingale in sports works better, you can also use it in trading, sort of. Its way safer in sports than dice or any other gambling game but it can fail in the end aswell unless you have good funds and you also bet with other methods at the same time

[futureofbitcoin]

Yes, there is chance, but how the first free throw bounced off the rim has absolutely nothing to do with how the second one will bounce off the rim (if it even hits the rim).

Not necessarily. For example, if you threw the ball at the hoop, and it landed 10 meters away, chances are, you would adjust your aim and strength.

Plus there are also psychological factors at play here. So I wouldn't say two free throws are completely disconnected. Unlike a dice throw.

[Phildo]

I think the gambler's fallacy theory could be applied to sportsbetting too because for example the France-Brazil game yesterday finished 1-3 and knowing that the last game in Brazil ended 3-0 I would have thought now it was time for France to win having less substitutes in the team but guess what it the stats don't matter and each event is one unaffected instance. And yes I lost my bet on France to win  

Gambler's fallacy theory is just for something random, Sports game is totally unrandom, it depends the ability of each player, you can't say the ability of each player is random.
 

There are still some chance in sports game. In basketball when you shoot the ball theres a chance it will spin off the backboard weirdly, you jump weirdly, your muscles might act a bit differently, there is so many variables. Theres always the edge that a team has of winning but it isn't predetermined.

Yes, there is chance, but how the first free throw bounced off the rim has absolutely nothing to do with how the second one will bounce off the rim (if it even hits the rim).

True, but its the same thing as this. if the first one doesn't go in the net then you might bet on the second one because "the odds have to be even right".
Also you CAN apply martingale to sports betting, if you lose your bet you keep doubling until you win, its still possible

The odds most certainly don't "have to be even."  if you are going to hit 50% of your free throws over the course of your life, and you miss one, the odds of the next one are still 50/50 because the odds "be even" when the next 1 million free throws are 50/50 overall. You can apply martingale to sports betting the same way you can to every other bet. it will be great until you get on a losing streak that hits the maximum bet or the end of your bankroll.

[psykachu]

at the end always finish on 50%... but how we consider house edge... you'll always lose

[Phildo]

Yes, there is chance, but how the first free throw bounced off the rim has absolutely nothing to do with how the second one will bounce off the rim (if it even hits the rim).

Not necessarily. For example, if you threw the ball at the hoop, and it landed 10 meters away, chances are, you would adjust your aim and strength.

Plus there are also psychological factors at play here. So I wouldn't say two free throws are completely disconnected. Unlike a dice throw.

Sports is weird, because most of the time the events people are talking about are not independent (like dice throws or coin flipping) but that doesn't mean the fallacy doesn't apply. It is possible to lose x games in a row, it is possible to win x games in a row. The result of one game will have a lot more to do with the skill level/conditions the game will be played under than the result of the previous games.

[Morenod]

Sport odds and statistics is very different with other things like dice and flips. The approximate outcome is known a flip to be 50% so flip 10 times with no heads is extremely rare, but sports team losing 10 times in a row is not so rare.

[skierchewing]

does martiglan work?

[klutzbelgian]

You'll always lose... don't gamble

[skierchewing]

i don't think so... i think all will bring to 50/50 at end

[XinXan]

i don't think so... i think all will bring to 50/50 at end

What? Thats a lie. Depending on what the house edge is, thats what will bring at the end, if you have a 49% chance of winning and you play 1 million times you will be damn close to 49%, the problem is that in those bets no one guarantees you, you wont get 30 reds in a row or 30 blacks or both, thats why martingale fails.

[Darwerft]

It is the reason why people lose their money. Martingale does not work. The goat behind the door does not care about previous choices and chances are reset every time you take a gamble. Unless it is rigged.

Imagine there were 1000 doors and there are goats behind all but one, you now choose door 1, the host opens all the other doors but number 1 and number 267.

Would you go with door number 1 or door number 267?

Do you think the goat cares?
If youd like to get that car, you better change to door 267 as motherfucking fast as you can.

Do you really believe there is a 50% chance still?

[ndnh]

It is the reason why people lose their money. Martingale does not work. The goat behind the door does not care about previous choices and chances are reset every time you take a gamble. Unless it is rigged.

Imagine there were 1000 doors and there are goats behind all but one, you now choose door 1, the host opens all the other doors but number 1 and number 267.

Would you go with door number 1 or door number 267?

Do you think the goat cares?
If youd like to get that car, you better change to door 267 as motherfucking fast as you can.

Do you really believe there is a 50% chance still?

lol, if I am correct, I think the chances of winning are 999/1000 by picking door 267.

[futureofbitcoin]

It is the reason why people lose their money. Martingale does not work. The goat behind the door does not care about previous choices and chances are reset every time you take a gamble. Unless it is rigged.

Imagine there were 1000 doors and there are goats behind all but one, you now choose door 1, the host opens all the other doors but number 1 and number 267.

Would you go with door number 1 or door number 267?

Do you think the goat cares?
If youd like to get that car, you better change to door 267 as motherfucking fast as you can.

Do you really believe there is a 50% chance still?

lol, if I am correct, I think the chances of winning are 999/1000 by picking door 267.

Chances are, both door number 1 and door number 267 contains goats. The car is in a door that's already been opened.

[XinXan]

It is the reason why people lose their money. Martingale does not work. The goat behind the door does not care about previous choices and chances are reset every time you take a gamble. Unless it is rigged.

Imagine there were 1000 doors and there are goats behind all but one, you now choose door 1, the host opens all the other doors but number 1 and number 267.

Would you go with door number 1 or door number 267?

Do you think the goat cares?
If youd like to get that car, you better change to door 267 as motherfucking fast as you can.

Do you really believe there is a 50% chance still?

lol, if I am correct, I think the chances of winning are 999/1000 by picking door 267.

the chances are 50% by picking the door 267 because you are choosing between 2 doors, 50/50
The chances are 1 / 1000 the first time you pick a door.

[Phildo]

Please don't turn this thread into a monty hall argument. We have idiots in here who can't figure out the most basic of probability, if you start discussing something that legit statisticians have disagreed on everyone is going to lose their coins and their brain cells much faster.

[futureofbitcoin]

Please don't turn this thread into a monty hall argument. We have idiots in here who can't figure out the most basic of probability, if you start discussing something that legit statisticians have disagreed on everyone is going to lose their coins and their brain cells much faster.

Bolded is the key. Just read darwerft's post,

Do you really believe there is a 50% chance still?

as if the problem is trivial, in an attempt to make himself look smart or something, when he can't even formulate the whole problem. Seriously.

@XinXan: that's a logical fallacy. What's the chances of 1,000,000,000 dollars suddenly appearing in my bedroom? It either happens or it doesn't, so it's 50/50, right? Well, just because there are only 2 choices doesn't mean it's 50/50.

[MasterYii]

hmmm, I kinda agree on the image.

eventually when you keep rolling you are improving the odds of a 50% rate, as opposed to just rolling once.

[Minnlo]

It is the reason why people lose their money. Martingale does not work. The goat behind the door does not care about previous choices and chances are reset every time you take a gamble. Unless it is rigged.

Imagine there were 1000 doors and there are goats behind all but one, you now choose door 1, the host opens all the other doors but number 1 and number 267.

Would you go with door number 1 or door number 267?

Do you think the goat cares?
If youd like to get that car, you better change to door 267 as motherfucking fast as you can.

Do you really believe there is a 50% chance still?

lol, if I am correct, I think the chances of winning are 999/1000 by picking door 267.

the chances are 50% by picking the door 267 because you are choosing between 2 doors, 50/50
The chances are 1 / 1000 the first time you pick a door.

Not really, ndnhc is correct.
I would suggest you to take a look at http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/.
Or you could make a simple simulation to check the probability yourself.

[egajuarsa]

at the end always finish on 50%... but how we consider house edge... you'll always lose

yes but you must play for long time to see house edge.

sometime you can win big! but other time you play and play and play and no wins. this is random.

[Miss Fortune]

this is all based on speculation of having a big bank roll right?

if so, then yeah you`ll see the edge out to a win.