Newest Diff thread April 5 to April 18th

[Lboss]

I want to take from -0.01  to -  0.25  %.

[1714747164]

1714747164

[1714747164]

1714747164

[philipma1957]

 @ crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick !  got it thanks!




list is as follows:



-2.26 to  -  2.50    crazyivan
-2.01 to  -  2.25    Chris_Sabian
-1.76 to  -  2.00    sana54210
-1.51 to  -  1.75     RoadStress
-1.26 to  -  1.50    stonerider ------------------ corrected from -1.126 to -1.151
-1.01  to -  1.25    philipma1957
-0.76  to -  1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51  to -  0.75   davejh
-0.26  to -  0.50   SunnyIgor
-0.01  to -  0.25   Lboss
-------0.00-------  A4Tech
+0.01 to + 0.25   MegaFall
+0.26  to + 0.50   jmumich------------
+0.51 to + 0.75   bisom
+0.76 to + 1.00   EMIF
+1.01 to + 1.25   SimplisticStu
+1.26 to + 1.50   Kexkey
+1.51 to + 1.75   RealMalatesta
+1.76 to + 2.00   ereton
+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to + 5.50     notlist3d
+5.51 to + 5.75    coinits


+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25
+6.26 to  + 6.50    sloopy
+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih






 we are filled in solid at  all of the 33 possible ranges   in the   -2.50 to +5.75 zone.


 5.76 to 6.00 is open

+6.76 and up endless ranges




and  a lot of negative ranges available if you go from -2.50 > lower


  Current real time is not available on google charts but www.bitcoincharts.com has us at - a neg adjustment

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   351234
Total BTC   14.031M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   48465610011 in 1566 blks--------- still  neg
 
Network total   310446.855 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.26 / 684 s -------------------- drop in speed



Still negative   at -1.98%    but we are on a downturn in speed

1566 block left

coinbase is at  247 usd.

crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick   got it thanks

[crazyivan]

Since everything s taken, I have to go with something optimistic. -2.26 to -2.50.

[philipma1957]

Since everything s taken, I have to go with something optimistic. -2.26 to -2.50.

got it thanks

your new guess may be a lot better as of today  you are close.

[jmumich]

Live sheet is back up (mostly) - shows us -3.73% right now.

Some things aren't working quite right (though I believe the standard difficulty projection is) - I expect everything else to be up by tonight or tomorrow, plus a tweaked experimental projection. Last time the experimental projection was decent over the last week, but I have some ideas to make it better.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g

[philipma1957]

Live sheet is back up (mostly) - shows us -3.73% right now.

Some things aren't working quite right (though I believe the standard difficulty projection is) - I expect everything else to be up by tonight or tomorrow, plus a tweaked experimental projection. Last time the experimental projection was decent over the last week, but I have some ideas to make it better.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g

So we are doing quite nice  a -3 or more would be pretty good.  Thank you for your work.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Dead line is april 12th 2 am utc time .          

 Which is about april 11th 9 pm EST time.

or april 11th 6 pm PST.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It looks like we will get some changes from the high picks to a negative pick.
______________________________________________________________________________

As a suggestion I think the next contest should wait for 84 hours after diff adjustment to begin.
Then stay open for 84 hours.We still get to see 1 weeks of blocks made and the early rush is put off.
______________________________________________________________________________

I can see that  if we stay low like neg -2 or -3 or -4 percent all the high picks will switch in a day or 2.
A lot of work for me and a bit of confusion.
_______________________________________________________________________________ _

So 14 day period of a block set would be

3 or 4  days of watching no picks---------------- days 1-4

3 or 4 days of picking ---------------------------- days 5-8

then last 6-8 days looking to see the closest--- days 9-14


This also allows for  more spec time and less pick time.

I wonder why this drop has happened? guesses anyone?

[suchmoon]

This also allows for  more spec time and less pick time.

I wonder why this drop has happened? guesses anyone?

Or we could just not allow changing the picks

As for the drop, I'm watching AntPool as usual and it had a few unlucky blocks. If a pool that has ~15-20% of network hashrate takes 8 hours to find a block it does have a visible effect on the charts and estimates.

I think anything within +/- 5% can be safely dismissed as variance. Even that huge hashrate mountain from two weeks ago (~ 50 PH/s) has disappeared now. 25% total difficulty increase in 5 months - we used to get that much every cycle. Exchange rate doesn't seem to be going anywhere either.

[philipma1957]

This also allows for  more spec time and less pick time.

I wonder why this drop has happened? guesses anyone?

Or we could just not allow changing the picks   yeah that works



As for the drop, I'm watching AntPool as usual and it had a few unlucky blocks. If a pool that has ~15-20% of network hashrate takes 8 hours to find a block it does have a visible effect on the charts and estimates.

I think anything within +/- 5% can be safely dismissed as variance. Even that huge hashrate mountain from two weeks ago (~ 50 PH/s) has disappeared now. 25% total difficulty increase in 5 months - we used to get that much every cycle. Exchange rate doesn't seem to be going anywhere either.

variance of + or - 5% is possible.  also clever ddos can hurt hashing we had some brutal ddos attacks around 2 jumps back .

Btw  -1 or -2 is nice for a diff adjustment.

[GreydonIselmoe]

This also allows for  more spec time and less pick time.

I wonder why this drop has happened? guesses anyone?

Or we could just not allow changing the picks

As for the drop, I'm watching AntPool as usual and it had a few unlucky blocks. If a pool that has ~15-20% of network hashrate takes 8 hours to find a block it does have a visible effect on the charts and estimates.

I think anything within +/- 5% can be safely dismissed as variance. Even that huge hashrate mountain from two weeks ago (~ 50 PH/s) has disappeared now. 25% total difficulty increase in 5 months - we used to get that much every cycle. Exchange rate doesn't seem to be going anywhere either.

I was mining antpool. After 6 hours I started crying.

[notlist3d]

This also allows for  more spec time and less pick time.

I wonder why this drop has happened? guesses anyone?

Or we could just not allow changing the picks

As for the drop, I'm watching AntPool as usual and it had a few unlucky blocks. If a pool that has ~15-20% of network hashrate takes 8 hours to find a block it does have a visible effect on the charts and estimates.

I think anything within +/- 5% can be safely dismissed as variance. Even that huge hashrate mountain from two weeks ago (~ 50 PH/s) has disappeared now. 25% total difficulty increase in 5 months - we used to get that much every cycle. Exchange rate doesn't seem to be going anywhere either.

I was mining antpool. After 6 hours I started crying.

It's had a harder time with luck lately it was very very good.  And it's average is still not bad but 24 hour has been down a few times in last days.

Good news bitwisdom appears to keep going down:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,089,150,812 (+1.30%)
Adjust time:    After 1522 Blocks, About 10.8 days

[xstr8guy]

Since the contests started, these threads have become pointless. What happened to the lively discussion about difficulty? It's all just people posting their guesses now. Boring. 

[notlist3d]

Since the contests started, these threads have become pointless. What happened to the lively discussion about difficulty? It's all just people posting their guesses now. Boring. 

There is still some.  Just the contest has brought a lot of people to it.  Which is not really a bad thing.

Bitwisdom going up a little:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,242,645,979 (+1.61%)
Adjust time:    After 1473 Blocks, About 10.4 days

[philipma1957]

Since the contests started, these threads have become pointless. What happened to the lively discussion about difficulty? It's all just people posting their guesses now. Boring.  

There is still some.  Just the contest has brought a lot of people to it.  Which is not really a bad thing.

Bitwisdom going up a little:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,242,645,979 (+1.61%)
Adjust time:    After 1473 Blocks, About 10.4 days

and I bounce back and forth between both of the above opinions.

I liked the pure spec angle we used to do, but the promo got us the google link from jmumich.

 That real time thread is very helpful for me in my future mining choices.  It can show just how far off other predictors are from the real number..

I think we have a few more contests ,5 counting this one  I can't remember  so 5 more  is a guess.

 When the original funds are gone suchmoon and I will revisit the promo idea.  

the real current number is -2.95%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

while   https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is +1.41%     


that negative number allows me to decide if I want to sell the last of my gear for my summer mining or hold it.

With NJ price of power shift coming in May I go from 13 cents to 17 cents.

I also go from a 2-3 cents heat benefit in cold weather to a 1 cent heat cost in hot weather ,

So my real numbers are 10.5 in the winter and 18 in the summer.   I need to use much less gear unless diff and price work for me.  Part of the reason I created this thread last year was to get other ideas and have other miners Opinions.

I also saw the trend coming of lower diff jumps and did quite a few  sections or break down of diff adjustment increases.

Bottom line is don't fear the future of cryptocoins plan for it.  this thread helps in its small way. I like to think it does.  although last adjustment did scare me a bit. 

[Last of the V8s]

Since the contests started, these threads have become pointless. What happened to the lively discussion about difficulty? It's all just people posting their guesses now. Boring. 

Not all.
First few days yes we all guess and not much else except Phil's analysis and one or two people give reasons.
But once the guessing closes the threads go back to reasons/speculation proper.
Maybe not being able to change guesses would help keep the content level up, help us all decide when to lower voltage, sell off, buy in.

[mavericklm]

5.76 to 6.00 is open

i'll take it i should have took a better number a few days back, at the beginning of the thread

the bitmain miners will/are back up so the hash should rise a bit...

pray for another fire? ))

bitfury... nothing from them

sptech nothing

knc nothing. they didn't burn in hell yet!

sfarts nothing

....

pretty quiet

[notlist3d]

Phil I have been loving the google spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

With real time and amount it shows it's great.   If I save a copy will it work in my google drive?  Or is there a install guide since it has to work automatically?

Thanks!

[suchmoon]

Since the contests started, these threads have become pointless. What happened to the lively discussion about difficulty? It's all just people posting their guesses now. Boring. 

Not all.
First few days yes we all guess and not much else except Phil's analysis and one or two people give reasons.
But once the guessing closes the threads go back to reasons/speculation proper.
Maybe not being able to change guesses would help keep the content level up, help us all decide when to lower voltage, sell off, buy in.

We can also shorten the reward entry period, but that wouldn't really reduce the number of posts. Split into two threads? Not sure if that would work either.

Perhaps Phil could remove/aggregate posts that contain only reward entries and no other content (since the thread is self-moderated) but that would be extra work and would make it harder to resolve any disputes. Same applies to using PMs or some other kind of "off-thread" system for accepting those entries.

I'm open to any suggestions. It's not my intent to derail the thread with the reward but rather get more people interested in how difficulty adjustment works.

[skuser]

 That real time thread is very helpful for me in my future mining choices.  It can show just how far off other predictors are from the real number..

the real current number is -2.95%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

while   https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is +1.41%     

Once again, the 'Real number' as extrapolation of current data is absolutely useless before enough time passes (at least 1000 blocks imho). It's like flipping coin twice and extrapolating whatever result to 2048 passes.

Also analyzing block mining in too short intervals (like daily) has no statistical value due to the same reason but I admit it is entertaining and leads to majority of "Who just added/removed 20 PH" topics.

[philipma1957]

 That real time thread is very helpful for me in my future mining choices.  It can show just how far off other predictors are from the real number..

the real current number is -2.95%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

while   https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is +1.41%      

Once again, the 'Real number' as extrapolation of current data is absolutely useless before enough time passes (at least 1000 blocks imho). It's like flipping coin twice and extrapolating whatever result to 2048 passes.

Also analyzing block mining in too short intervals (like daily) has no statistical value due to the same reason but I admit it is entertaining and leads to majority of "Who just added/removed 20 PH" topics.

last week's adjustment was +5.84

at 628 blocks real number is -3.19

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

bitcoinwisdom has us at +1.4

I for one feel better looking at that -3.19 then looking at the +1.4


granted we are at 600 blocks so the -3.19 may not be corect but it is showing a trend pretty far away from +5.84

vs the 1.4 on bitcoinwisdom which is not that far from +5.84.  I do agree the at the 144 block or 1 day mark it is a meh number.  But at the 4 day mark it has some meaning which only becomes greater as you near the 14 day mark.

[ezeminer]

 That real time thread is very helpful for me in my future mining choices.  It can show just how far off other predictors are from the real number..

the real current number is -2.95%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

while   https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is +1.41%      

Once again, the 'Real number' as extrapolation of current data is absolutely useless before enough time passes (at least 1000 blocks imho). It's like flipping coin twice and extrapolating whatever result to 2048 passes.

Also analyzing block mining in too short intervals (like daily) has no statistical value due to the same reason but I admit it is entertaining and leads to majority of "Who just added/removed 20 PH" topics.

last week's adjustment was +5.84

at 628 blocks real number is -3.19

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

bitcoinwisdom has us at +1.4

I for one feel better looking at that -3.19 then looking at the +1.4


granted we are at 600 blocks so the -3.19 may not be corect but it is showing a trend pretty far away from +5.84

vs the 1.4 on bitcoinwisdom which is not that far from +5.84.  I do agree the at the 144 block or 1 day mark it is a meh number.  But at the 4 day mark it has some meaning which only becomes greater as you near the 14 day mark.

Hopefully that stays low enough.. I don't see the difficulty going up more than 4% but also don't see it dropping more than 6%