Discussion about 10,000BTC Bet (Official)

[Matthew N. Wright]

I feel like this community would speculate why an ant walks the way he walks if you were bored enough.

[1714139408]

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[organofcorti]

I feel like this community would speculate why an ant walks the way he walks if you were bored enough.

Not much point, already well researched. Here's a particularly boring paper if you're not really into that sort of thing:

http://jeb.biologists.org/content/192/1/95.full.pdf

[MrTeal]

42.5kBTC now.

It's funny that this is getting up to be a significant percentage of the estimated Pirate debt at the time of collapse. Pirate being Matthew's backer would be quite a funny twist; if Pirate has enough BTC left and could afford to buy back enough of his debt at a really distressed rate, he could still make out handsomely on this without being as open to getting in trouble with the law.

I don't think so. I'm not sure, but I don't think so. Here's why:

For Matthew to win his bet, Pirate has to settle with everyone. For people who insist on 100% payout, the only way Pirate can settle is to pay 100%. Because some people think Matthew knows something they don't, they're much less likely to take a low settlement. This is especially true for people who took Matthew's bet to hedge. If they take a partial payment, they may lose their bet with Matthew. If they refuse, they are guaranteed either 100% payment or they'll win their bet.

So Matthew's bet almost certainly made it much more expensive for Pirate to settle. I suspect by at least 40,000 BTC. (Weirdly, this means that if Matthew loses, most of that money may wind up indirectly going to Pirate since Pirate benefits from the higher value of his debt because he can sell it for more.)

Oh, I don't think that's what Matthew is doing either, it was more just a commentary on how massive the size of this bet has become. As the date comes closer and closer, it's possibly people will continue to toss bets that they think are sure things. It could easily double in size towards the end.

That being said, apart from the fact that it could make it more expensive for Pirate to buy back his debt it would become almost an impossible logistical nightmare to contact all his debtors in a couple day span and negotiate a lower settlement. Those he can't contact he'd have to pay out in full plus interest in order to win the bet. It would only be feasible if Pirate was running an incredibly profitable business that just spiraled out of control, still has a significant percentage of what he owes and wants to walk away with cash in the bank without getting sued or arrested.

There's no reason to think that Matthew is colluding with Pirate though, other than how insane it seems to continue taking bets at this point if that's not the case.

[MrTeal]

I feel like this community would speculate why an ant walks the way he walks if you were bored enough.

We are bored. We need someone to hack Bitcoinica or BFL to ship a supercomputing pair of loafers to give us a new scandal to focus on ad forget this whole nasty Pirate business.

[Come-from-Beyond]

I feel like this community would speculate why an ant walks the way he walks if you were bored enough.

We are bored. We need someone to hack Bitcoinica or BFL to ship a supercomputing pair of loafers to give us a new scandal to focus on ad forget this whole nasty Pirate business.

BitFloor has been hacked. Just in time to keep us entertained. And I expect entertainment on 10th of September... We definitely need something like a schedule.

[peasant]

Crisis schedule. 

[Fluttershy]

I can't believe you're refusing my bet even though my comment fueled the latest round of betting. How callous of you.

Why exactly are you refusing my bet when it's as good as anyone else's?

[bitcoiners]

A scammer vs. a dumbass.

He's a dumbass for taking more bets even now.  He's a scammer if he doesn't pay out.  It's that simple.

BTW, There's no way he can win this.  I won't accept anything less than 100% of Pirate's original agreement when this bet was made.  That includes interest to the hour of payout.  So everyone should pile on the bets.  And if you're a business partner or future business partner of Matthew's.  I'd be watching this closely.

[mp420]

I'm thinking Matthew's going to quit bitcoin when he loses his bet. Having followed this discussion I'm fairly sure that he'll at least try to pay back everything (in contrast to Pirate, who won't). I get the idea that he wants to be right so much, he has actually psyched himself to believe that Pirate is honest. Losing the bet will mean he's going to have to admit that his worldview has been too rosy, that people who appear trustworthy in many cases aren't, and that his beloved bitcoin community is actually full of scammers and criminals, just as you'd expect of any community centered on handling money in a hard-to-trace way.

[Bitcoin Oz]

A scammer vs. a dumbass.

He's a dumbass for taking more bets even now.  He's a scammer if he doesn't pay out.  It's that simple.

BTW, There's no way he can win this.  I won't accept anything less than 100% of Pirate's original agreement when this bet was made.  That includes interest to the hour of payout.  So everyone should pile on the bets.  And if you're a business partner or future business partner of Matthew's.  I'd be watching this closely.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=100127.0

[DigitalHermit]

A scammer vs. a dumbass.

He's a dumbass for taking more bets even now.  He's a scammer if he doesn't pay out.  It's that simple.

BTW, There's no way he can win this.  I won't accept anything less than 100% of Pirate's original agreement when this bet was made.  That includes interest to the hour of payout.  So everyone should pile on the bets.  And if you're a business partner or future business partner of Matthew's.  I'd be watching this closely.

Of course he can win it. Although the probability is small and shrinking that everyone will be paid back 100% plus interest to the hour of payout, it is still not zero. Since you are dishing out vocabulary lessons on tags, let me add that suggesting everyone should "pile on the bets" makes you a shill if this bet turns out to be a scam collusion between Matthew and Pirate, despite Matthew's protestations to the contrary.

As always, only bet what you can afford to lose.

BTW, Matthew is speaking at the Bitcoin conference in London one week after the expiration date on his bet. Will it be a tough crowd?
http://www.bitcoin2012.com/speakers

[nimda]

Matthew, if possible, please bump me to 5 BTC. Thanks.

[Matthew N. Wright]

how are you still accepting bets? 

I'd also like to double down if allowed with the caveat that the other half (400BTC worth) is currently in USD, but will be converted if you need me to prove I have the funds.

let me know if you have any conditions.  Thanks.

800BTC
1EzdZBu6DJUqScXFbRYbTXPqTcXNAUKAxc

Accepted.

[flower1024]

please bump me up to 100BTC

(if i loose i need a few days to get money to the exchanges; if you are not ok with this please bump me to 20btc instead)

thanks

[SgtSpike]

42.5kBTC now.

It's funny that this is getting up to be a significant percentage of the estimated Pirate debt at the time of collapse. Pirate being Matthew's backer would be quite a funny twist; if Pirate has enough BTC left and could afford to buy back enough of his debt at a really distressed rate, he could still make out handsomely on this without being as open to getting in trouble with the law.

It's a chicken-and-egg problem though... Pirate can't pay back all of his debt until Matthew receives the winning funds from winning his bet, but Matthew can't receive the winning funds from winning his bet until Pirate pays back all of his debt.  Unless one of them can happen upon a $5M loan, I doubt that it's even a reasonable plan to think about.

Matthew - up me to 82 BTC please...
18TKNbSLTrd3a2W8mtoH5uNzFhWRWNcuHU

[Fluttershy]

Can someone proxy my bet since Matthew is refusing to take it and then mocking me?

[Matthew N. Wright]

Matthew, if possible, please bump me to 5 BTC. Thanks.

Done.

please bump me up to 100BTC

(if i loose i need a few days to get money to the exchanges; if you are not ok with this please bump me to 20btc instead)

thanks

Done.

42.5kBTC now.

It's funny that this is getting up to be a significant percentage of the estimated Pirate debt at the time of collapse. Pirate being Matthew's backer would be quite a funny twist; if Pirate has enough BTC left and could afford to buy back enough of his debt at a really distressed rate, he could still make out handsomely on this without being as open to getting in trouble with the law.

It's a chicken-and-egg problem though... Pirate can't pay back all of his debt until Matthew receives the winning funds from winning his bet, but Matthew can't receive the winning funds from winning his bet until Pirate pays back all of his debt.  Unless one of them can happen upon a $5M loan, I doubt that it's even a reasonable plan to think about.

Matthew - up me to 82 BTC please...
18TKNbSLTrd3a2W8mtoH5uNzFhWRWNcuHU

Done.

Can someone proxy my bet since Matthew is refusing to take it and then mocking me?

Burn in hell SA troll.

[P4man]

Matthew are you claiming to have 42K BTC?

[Matthew N. Wright]

Matthew are you claiming to have 42K BTC?

Blah blah blah trolololol

[myrkul]

BTW, Matthew is speaking at the Bitcoin conference in London one week after the expiration date on his bet. Will it be a tough crowd?
http://www.bitcoin2012.com/speakers

I predict:

<_matthew_> Oh look, another genius has a question about my bet. What's it going to be this time-- how do you feel about your bet now? Do you really have the money? How come you didn't use escrow? Do you have insider information? Does knowing how to stick my foot up your ass count as insider information?