Discussion about 10,000BTC Bet (Official)

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If he owes 100% and only pays back 90% without agreement to investors, -that- is fraud and a failure to pay back. I would obviously lose the bet.
If he owes 100% and only pays back 90% but the investors agreed to it, -that- is the agreement and therefor he has paid it back. I would win the bet.
If he owes 100% and pays back 100%, I would win the bet.
If he owes 100% and does not pay anything anything back, I would lose the bet.

I'm trying my best to be smart about my clarifications, but if you need any more clarification, please ask and give examples so I can better explain. This is all on good faith of course, I don't want to get into legal arguments "But you said if he paid back on 12oclock and that was EST not KST" and other bullshit. This is about whether he is a scammer/ponzi or not, not about whether you can cheat the system for a cheap profit.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.msg1128484#msg1128484

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Thank you everyone for showing a huge amount of integrity to bet for your beliefs instead of just arguing, defaming, accusing, aggravating, etc. Many of you truly believe Pirate is a ponzi, many of you are simply utilizing my offer for hedging, and still others are simply happy to take a 50/50 chance bet on anything. Regardless, we are at the 10,000BTC mark and thus I am locking the thread so that no more bets can be received here.

I still believe there is a very high chance that Pirate is just doing a business which we don't understand, and my sinking gut, although questioning his lack of professionalism, lateness, etc, reminds me that no one is perfect and it may all just be a series of bad coincidences. I hope I am right and that I am able to prove to the community once and for all that what we don't understand is not always a scam. If I happen to be wrong, I'm happy to have enjoyed this entertaining time with everyone, and I've actually made quite a lot of new friends (as you can imagine).

The original OP states that the bet ends 3 weeks after August 19, 2012, 04:49:20 PM, so that means it ends on September 9th, 2012, 04:49:20 PM KST (Korean Standard Time, local to me). I think I had mentioned a slightly longer deadline elsewhere on IRC out of confusion (September 12th perhaps?), but this is incorrect as you can clearly see. The bet will also end if Pirate has provided proof of paying back all (not 99.9%) of his obligated debts and interests per agreements, whichever comes first.

Good luck to everyone and thank you for participating in this monumental lesson for all of us.

(emphasis mine)

1 day, 18 hours, 39 minutes, 50 seconds from NOW.

8 hours, 14 minutes, 12 seconds

Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on September 09, 2012, 12:22:44 AM

I love the part where people are arguing about why something happened that hasn't happened. Keep the comedy coming! (It's 15 hours left on the bet btw, not 8. This is how lazy the fudding has gotten lately. I am disappoint.)

On the timeline you gave (quoted above) it's now exactly 7 hours, 23 minutes, 45 seconds.

This was corrected on IRC and is old news. Check the thread OP and do the math.

First deadline expired. Second timeline after Matthew chickened first, 6 hours 3 minutes to go.