NEW info. Everyone is lying about ther ASIC project

[AndrewBUD]

^ will probably end up being true.

[1714803541]

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[1714803541]

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[1714803541]

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[king_pin]

It is the 2nd of November - Any ASICs BFL?

[2GOOD]

I just LOVED this!

Day 0 is expected roughly around November 30th, plus or minus a week:

Day T-10: Four of the five ASIC manufacturers claim to be finalizing the design / optimizing / trying to resolve some nagging power issue / whatever, yet not a single person that pre-paid for an ASIC has one in-hand.
Day T-8: Difficulty of 3.5 million and exchange rate of $15 mean profitability is still acceptable for GPU miners paying average electric rates or less.
Day T-5: A lot more "N Ghash/s for sale" listings will start to appear [Edit: as-in total liquidation of N GHash/s of capacity]
Day T-4: Difficulty for Litecoin rises as miners experiment, causing there to be no chance of profit from Litecoin mining either.
Day T-3: Block 209,664 -- last difficulty adjustment before the block subsidy reward drops (fact, not a prediction)
Day T-1: Last day that anywhere near 7,200 BTC is produced (fact, not a prediction)
Day 0: Block 210,000 hits and only about 3,600 are produced (fact, not a prediction)
Day 1: Blocks slow to about 11 minutes as some GPU miners realize basic math and power down.
Day 2: Exchange rate volatile, both up and down, but returns to previous levels -- about $15.
Day 3: Anger and vitriol from GPU miners who are still "underwater" on their GPUs purchased in 2012.
Day 4: Anger and vitriol from FPGA miners who somehow didn't realize that "much more efficient" doesn't protect against a revenue drop of 50%
Day 5: Blocks slow to about 12 minutes as more GPU miners realize the payouts are dismal and begin to proceed past "denial", the first step in the grieving process,
Day 6: ASIC hardware developers see an even greater number of prepayments for hardware. Much gnashing of teeth on the forums.
Day 7: Hashing on CoinLab's GPU network grows tremendously as miners cash in their built-up loyalty credits.
Day 8: Nearly all NVidia GPUs that were used for mining are now either computing with CoinLab or have been decommissioned.
Day 9: Gamers elated over some really good AMD and NVidia graphics cards available "really, really cheap" on eBay.
Day 10: Blocks slow to about 13 minutes, as not only did the block reward subsidy drop but so did the frequency of blocks -- making mining bring in even less revenue each day.
Day 11: Speculators hoping for the "doubling" of the exchange rate realize it didn't happen (or perhaps already happened, from $5-ish, over the summer), and sell off a little Exchange rate drops to $12-ish.
Day 12: ASIC manfuacturers claim to be finalizing the design / optimizing / trying to resolve some nagging power issue / whatever, yet not a single person that pre-paid for an ASIC has one in-hand.
Day 13: Block 211,680 - difficulty adjusts. Drops 15%. Back to one block every ten minutes.
Day 14: Mining operators are still seeing electric bills from the previous month's consumption. Even more anger, vitriol and gnashing of teeth.
Day 15: Christmas-related activities overtake bitcoin as being the event more important to many mining operators.
Day 25: The daily "average price" remains in a range between $12 and $15.
Day 26: Many "slightly used" GPU cards land in wrapped boxes under trees. Others, particularly those who had a larger investment in their GPU rigs, are using the phrase "bah, humbug" more than they had in any prior holiday season.
Day 27: Difficult adjusts, dropping another 5%. Yawn.
Day 30: ASIC manufacturers claim to be finalizing the design / optimizing / trying to resolve some nagging power issue / whatever, yet not a single person that pre-paid for an ASIC has one in-hand.

This is getting closer to true with the latest BFL November/December shipping announcement.

Day 26 is my favorite line 

[abracadabra]

just wait, just 2 more months

It's 2 months and 1 week.  What are we waiting for?

[king_pin]

What happened to BFL_Josh? Is he alive?

[firefop]

What happened to BFL_Josh? Is he alive?

That's for offical BFL stuff... he still posts here on his personal account (Inaba).

But he's quite active on BFL offical forums.

[king_pin]

And I bet his most commonly used words are:
Tomorrow, Soon, Next Week, Next month ...

[king_pin]

I received my BFL ASIC today it is made out of NOTHING! 

[strideynet]

2 community members are visiting at end of this month. I think it's yochdog. And someone.

[Chloride]

Well, that's capitalism. Take chances, win big or lose your money.

If BFL does have ASICs, then the people who put their money on the line in pre-orders are going to have a heyday when it first gets released and the difficulty hasn't increased yet. The people who decided to wait will still have a chance to mine, but not until after the difficulty has ramped up.

If BFL doesn't have the ASICs... well. That's highly unfortunate, but hey; you're working with experimental technology that works with a relatively experimental e-currency, you have to expect that things might not turn out according to plan. Invest at your own risk.

I haven't pre-ordered (Although I gave the Jalapeno some serious thought with the low starting price), so I think I'll see how it works when the first people begin to get theirs and think about it.

[king_pin]

EDITED:
Here is a quote from BFL's admin:

While I can't give a hard date and say "absolutely" this is the date, it looks like the week of the 11th,

source: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/437-asic-update-26-november-2012-a.html

Interestingly, since the first per-orders the price of BTC went almost double. So will BFL return full refunds or "full refunds"

I am expecting some comment from all who opposed me, blamed that im working for someone, and were defending BFL.

[AmDD]

So did I or did I not say January!
Here is a quote from BFL's admin:

I really can't express the depth of how incredibly pissed off I am about this project (as I am sure you are as well). After hours of meetings and discussions today with my engineering team I don't see any possible way we will be able to release the bASIC before mid January.

source: https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=125.0

Um, thats not BFL, thats BitcoinASIC/BTCFPGA/Tom/Cablepair talking about his product called bASIC.

[bitcoinvideos]

That is a rough place to be for sure.  I remember when I opened my first business and the delays etc almost made me lose it.  I certainly hope they turn out some products for the future or it will disenfranchise the entire BTC community.

[DeathAndTaxes]

So did I or did I not say January!
Here is a quote from BFL's admin:

I really can't express the depth of how incredibly pissed off I am about this project (as I am sure you are as well). After hours of meetings and discussions today with my engineering team I don't see any possible way we will be able to release the bASIC before mid January.

source: https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=125.0

Um you do know you look stupid right?  

The bolded portions are hints.

[king_pin]

Yes, yes I was stupid I quoted the wrong thing!
It's a bit late here sorry.

This is what I wanted you to read:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=105120.0;topicseen

[Aahzman]

So, you're posting a link to the topic we're already reading, which has no new info? 

[squeept]

We're supposed to listen to the judgement of someone that hasn't even mastered "copy and paste"?

[Aahzman]

We're supposed to listen to the judgement of someone that hasn't even mastered "copy and paste"?

Seems legit.

[king_pin]

We're supposed to listen to the judgement of someone that hasn't even mastered "copy and paste"?

Yes, because he told you so, and was right!

[SLok]

We're supposed to listen to the judgement of someone that hasn't even mastered "copy and paste"?

Yes, because he told you so, and was right!

Huh???

Quote: In my personal opinion there is something very stinky about BFL:

    No certain delivery dates.     ----------- no asic vendor gave, besides this was known when you posted, so a useless comment
    No pictures or schemes or anything.  ---------  fail point, pictures shown, if you expect to get schematics, dream on!
    Very limited information (actually there is no information on the ASICs).  ------------ Too basic complaint. What do you want to know?
    No one answers their phone.  ------------ How many times have you called? I bet never.
    They answer your e-mail within 2-3 weeks. ------------ utter lie, I had email exchanges with answers between 2 minutes to 2 days at the august peak periods
    All their answers are with a maybe or possibly. ---------- again, what are you asking?
    I never got it why are BITCOIN payments preferred. ---------- They  are not, but considering it's all about bitcoins, I wouldn't mind if they were
    The broke the law of e-bay - 2 months to appeal and ask for a refund with their 2 to 4 to 6 months delivery - maybe. --------- fail, bfl does not sell on ebay, some bloke sells his places in line
    They are a business registered in Massachusetts on the name of some Mexican woman. ------------- fail, fud from months back.
    They are playing with millions yet their website is made with WordPress. --------------  So?
    Up to today no one has either seen, touched or heard their ASICs. (even remotely) ---------- Not heard of their asics? Are you deaf? Do you read magazines, follow more vendors?

In short, utter fail attempt to score with nothing. Again.