Bitcoin will never again be priced over $300.

[bitllionaire]

Although you see no value 300$ is a very near price, and it will reach it,I could even say this year
If you had said 3000 I may have believed you,but manipulation can take the price to 300

[dimfot]

It's never too late until next halving

[j5d]

Ben,

all one needs to see the price of Bitcoin raise over $300 is any of the unforeseen events that have occurred over the past 5~ years that have caused the price to raise.

- Increased use.
- Buyers seeing an opportunity.
- Economies of nations crumbling, and the ensuing panic in its citizens to convert their currency from one in decline to one they see as more solid, or best allow them to retain control.

Granted, such drastic swings in the price of bitcoin wont be repeated as it has been tempered due to it's greater connection with fiat currencies through exchanges, bank-backed ventures, and greater acceptance by merchants. A swing of $100 is entirely possible though, especially in the face of unforeseen events.

Your confidence in Bitcoin remaining below $300 is based on your knowledge/experience of a system that is as relatively stable as it was when you made the original post. You can make likely predictions as to what will happen tomorrow, but even if you are 99% sure, you still can't be sure. One fly in the ointment is all it takes.

[Chef Ramsay]

Bitcoin on paper is already being purchased for over $300 over on GBTC on OTC and its trading has only been happening for a few days. When these shareholders have been locked in a year ago in the middle of a growing bear market and here we are a year later and the price is where it is, the shareholders are under water and don't want to sell much if anything below a certain price, hence the higher premiums there.

You have lots of large shareholders over there that for the right price (2,3,4,5x the current price) will sell to others that want to gain exposure in this growing market which is on the verge of a trend reversal. Then, they can arb at any of the exchanges and buy 2,3,4,5x as many coins which is freaking huge. If they continue to hold limited shares, then the asks can either give up or go higher. Currently, shares have been sold upwards of $1300 per bitcoin albeit not many, yet. The exchange prices have to come up at some point just by default and we aren't even taking into consideration the Swedish exchange & the Winks' operations which will bring hedge funds, 401Ks and other institutional money into which will create massive demand while the supply has dwindled - and that's before this stuff halves next fall.

If I was you, I'd keep your bet in words and not actually bet any paper on it cause I'm sure there'll be many people wanting to place bets with you and I doubt you can afford to ante up in the escrow kitty.

[futureofbitcoin]

I find no entertainment value in owning or using Bitcoin, certainly not enough to account for any meaningful percentage of its value.

This shows your self-centeredness and lack of foresight. I find no value in having the letters "LV" on a bag. So what? That doesn't mean other people won't. You, I and most people probably can't see value in the vast majority of items produced in the world. Lame toys, little widgets that hardly work. But that's why you are (probably) not a rich and successful entrepreneur.

That you can't see a realistic parallel doesn't mean it doesn't exist; it means you can't see it. Not that there's anything to parallel with anyway, since I gave specific examples of how bitcoin might gain value, not "parallels".

You find personal value in the entertainment from a movie. Some might find value in quick and secure transactions around the globe. If enough do, bitcoin will rise above $300. If you choose to ignore all of the possibilities because you personally don't find it useful, that's your own choice.

I'll be honest, I don't personally find any value in bitcoin either. But I've learned that just because I don't value something, doesn't mean it doesn't have value to other people. I can see that it's possible bitcoin will become valuable to a good number of people. If you don't, whatever. Bitcoin doesn't depend on you to succeed.

Finally, the exact same argument you're using here could've been used before bitcoin reached $1; before bitcoin reached $10; before bitcoin reached $50; or even before bitcoin reached $1000. But it did.

[achow101_alt]

Ben,

all one needs to see the price of Bitcoin raise over $300 is any of the unforeseen events that have occurred over the past 5~ years that have caused the price to raise.

- Increased use.
- Buyers seeing an opportunity.
- Economies of nations crumbling, and the ensuing panic in its citizens to convert their currency from one in decline to one they see as more solid, or best allow them to retain control.

Granted, such drastic swings in the price of bitcoin wont be repeated as it has been tempered due to it's greater connection with fiat currencies through exchanges, bank-backed ventures, and greater acceptance by merchants. A swing of $100 is entirely possible though, especially in the face of unforeseen events.

Your confidence in Bitcoin remaining below $300 is based on your knowledge/experience of a system that is as relatively stable as it was when you made the original post. You can make likely predictions as to what will happen tomorrow, but even if you are 99% sure, you still can't be sure. One fly in the ointment is all it takes.

Someone can also use a bot and manipulate the market, as with the Willy bot in Mt. Gox. This can really push the price upwards, and cause increased media attention and thus increased use and interest from the public.

[numismatist]

Send bitcoin to a blackhole wallet no one can access. Now there is less bitcoin in existence. More demand. Price skyrockets.

Disclosure: Goldfinger fan 

Well actually I do not see a need for a level above $300. For transporting value through the net, actual notation does not matter. Probably if economy size using BTC doubles, the notation will go upwards, maybe two times.

[opossum]

Although you see no value 300$ is a very near price, and it will reach it,I could even say this year
If you had said 3000 I may have believed you,but manipulation can take the price to 300

Listen to the bitllionaire he knows what he is talking about, how can you say it will never get above $300 again lol There are manipulators that will be pushing it back there this month. I will come back here to show you some graphs but you will be on to your next account talking more BS. Have to add what is the big deal even if it never went to $300 not everyone gets a hard on over a few dollars.

[pereira4]

You can find endless threads of a couple years ago explaining with sound logic how expecting BTC above 10 dollar was "unreasoanble".

The thing is we don't fucking know how far Bitcoin will go. If it challenges other payment options like VISA, Mastercard, etc, in the future, the current price is insanely low. Do your math.

[ausbit]

$300 is completely arbitrary.  It certainly can go higher or lower.  Price is based on supply and demand...period.

Exactly, could not have said it better myself.
no one knows what is going to happen with the price from week to week, there is just so much going on in the btc field right now that the price per coin is not as important to some people as it once was.
I think mid/late this year will will start to see big things come from all this money being pumped into different btc ventures, reward halving will also happen in the near future so we could easily see +$300 again.

Can't remember who it was but someone here made a 5 month prediction and was just about spot on, maybe we should call on him and tell us what the price will be like in the coming months,  

Edit: it was fairglu, check out his thread, he was very close.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=839312.0

[freeyourmind]

As others mentioned, $300 is arbitrary, and if it represents your confidence, what impact does your confidence have on the value of bitcoin?

Bitcoin has a value that you're representing in USD.  Do you know the history of the USD and its value over time?  If the USD is inflated each year, if Bitcoin's real value didn't change, it's nominal value in USD would inflate.

When the price of gold goes from $35 to $1200, do you think that the value of gold has increased or that the value of a USD has decreased?

I'm not making a call on the price of Bitcoin because I don't know, and the truth is you also don't know; you just have an opinion.

[tokeweed]

The only real value still built in is that of the electricity and hardware costs.

As global mining operations continue to consolidate, mining efficiency increases. This trend is predictable and irreversible. Therefore that intrinsic "cost of creation" declines at a rate that's also predictable.

Any speculative value that's currently built in is also fated to decline as trading efficiency increases and arbitrage opportunity disappears -- not to mention that the classic early-stage hype bubble has come and gone.

Finally, any commerce/transactional-discount value that's currently built in will decrease as the user marketplace approaches ubiquity and merchant competition dilutes potential margin plays.

... I look forward to intelligent, reasoned arguments for how Bitcoin will again find a value north of $300.

Ben

Yeah ok.  But who the fuck cares about its value.  Maybe your 1 bitcoin will be worth 1,000,000 someday though... Maybe.  So fuck you, there are more pressing matters than the value of bitcoin.

And you know what?  I hope bitcoin goes back to 1 dollar so the idiots like you who watch the price all day would leave.

[jonald_fyookball]

$300 is completely arbitrary.  It certainly can go higher or lower.  Price is based on supply and demand...period.

You're right, $300 is an arbitrary figure. That figure represents my degree of confidence in the strength of my argument.
If I thought Bitcoin had a bigger "value envelope", I'd have said $400 or $500...

You saying that "supply and demand determines the value of things" is not a valid counter-argument.
Please try again.

Ben

Your OP basic premise essentially dismisses Bitcoin as a scarce commodity and store of value.  Yet if it were not, why it worth over $200?  The answer goes back to what I said: supply and demand.  Your observations about mining etc are only part of the story with Bitcoin and I really don't see the connection with any given price level.  As you said, it's mostly just your "degree of confidence" you are expressing, while looking for some kind of evidence to support your sentiment.  

You may be entirely right that Bitcoin may stay below $300 for some time,  but your reasons are far from convincing.  The fact of the matter is that no one knows what price will do (in any market).  Least of all, the Bitcoin market. 

[Lauda]

Exactly.
I'm not sure why people are discussing this and trying to look smart? Do you have the required capital to move Bitcoin above $300? I think not.
There are people who can and will.
We've had this in the past too. Bitcoin will never reach $100 again (the drop to around $60 back in the summer of '13); Bitcoin will never reach $200 and such, but then Bitcoin surprised us.
It will surprise us again.

[Ingatqhvq]

The only real value still built in is that of the electricity and hardware costs.

Wrong and ridiculous.
The real value of bitcoin is it is useful and scarce.

[Amph]

Likewise, I could be proven wrong.
Personally I am 100% confident that Bitcoin will never again be priced over $300.
But like anybody who makes a reasoned prediction, there are no guarantees, only degrees of confidence.

Ben

you will be wrong for sure, you forgot that the block halving exist for one reason, also there is no counter-aurgument against a speculation, besides another speculation, speculation are meaningless

everything you say does not prove nothing, they price could rise to 10k this year for all we know...

[bryant.coleman]

I disagree with your assumptions 100%. Mining will not have any effect on the exchange rates. Less than 10% of the Bitcoin currency exchange involves freshly mined coins. Exchange rates are solely driven by the rate of adoption. Right now, the rate of adoption is low, and it is further declining. 

[galbros]

It's never too late until next halving

This was the first thing I thought of.

I also agree with Holliday and Ramsay, there is still a lot of good that bitcoin can accomplish.  We are only starting to see people utilize it for its full potential.  I still believe that adoption can drive price higher.

I will also say that bitcoin has gone far lower than I thought it would go.  If you had posted in Nov. 2013 that price would be sub 250 18 months later I think most everyone would have scoffed.

[hellyeah]

... I look forward to intelligent, reasoned arguments for how Bitcoin will again find a value north of $300.

Never is a long time.  The US dollar is an empire-backed currency, Bitcoin is a distributed ledger protocol on the internet. Which of these do you think has the longer lifespan?  

Historically speaking empires have lifespans measured in single digit centuries.

That is so true.
Empires have a tendency for self-destruction caused by greed.
The Great Roman Empire for example.

[Valerian77]

empirically I can say that the Dollar purchasing power will go down with a rate around 90% in 100 Years