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TPTB_need_war
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June 16, 2015, 12:32:08 PM
Last edit: June 16, 2015, 12:46:02 PM by TPTB_need_war |
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Draw a line from along the bottom of the start of the rally back in Oct 2013 (starting on the bottom of the candlestick below the X in EXANTE and through the bottom of the tiny pink or the green candlestick at the end of Sept last before the big rise) with the recent bounce to $300ish hugging the bottom of the line, i.e. we had broken down below that long-term trend line and thus it has become resistance. We could rise back up to that long-term trend line which is approximately $320ish right now and rising. If we break significantly above that (e.g. $400), then the bottom is behind us and the long-term trend line becomes support. Edit: we are now in the negative emotions paradigm below the trend line; whereas since Oct 2013, we had been in the positive emotions paradigm until we broke down through the long-term trend line at the end of 2014 (when oil collapsed). Emotions won't shift that quickly, there will need to be capitulation and some fundamental change in the markets. So the rally now is a trap for those who hope against their purchases > $400. |
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klee (OP)
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June 16, 2015, 12:56:53 PM |
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darlidada
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June 16, 2015, 03:53:15 PM |
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its coming
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klee (OP)
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June 16, 2015, 03:55:18 PM |
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FREE at last!!  |
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klee (OP)
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June 16, 2015, 05:35:01 PM |
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Soon some extra analysis...
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klee (OP)
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June 17, 2015, 05:27:16 AM |
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Ok, so now we don't have bearish resistance in the HL 4x3 chart but we do have horizontal resistances:  Basically we have to clear up to the 272 area (with highs/spikes). The thick green line is the bullish resistance, we accumulate more there and sell if we break it. For long term investors the resistances are NOT sell prices, they have to wait for double bottom break and/or bullish resistance violation. Finally something very important - CLOSE 4x3 chart...  I wanted confirmation of double top breakout too there before posting and it did it! It f@ckin did it! This is bullish as f@ck because CLOSE is very important chart in P&F, it is used for more long term trading and it's signals tend to be more trustworthy medium/long term. Resistance there is 264-268, we have to close at 272 to clear them which is the same as in HL chart. CLOSE chart is full of bearish resistance lines so bulls don't get overexcited yet... |
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klee (OP)
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June 17, 2015, 05:38:17 AM
Last edit: June 17, 2015, 05:48:41 AM by klee |
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Our long term HL ATR(100) chart now look like this (it is dynamic, patterns change every time):  We clear all resistances at 320315$, long term investors can enter safer there. EDIT: The resistance is cleared at about the same price TPTB said upthread... |
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klee (OP)
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June 17, 2015, 09:44:39 AM |
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darlidada
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June 17, 2015, 10:44:25 PM |
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time to sell already ? i cant read the market, im lost  |
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klee (OP)
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June 17, 2015, 11:09:43 PM |
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time to sell already ? i cant read the market, im lost Stay calm - technically we have not reversed yet (242$). 235-236 is big support. Our bullish support can fall down to 222$ (but basically is at 228$). EDIT: Oups, sorry, reversal is at 244$ but Finex holds. You can sell if we hit 244$ |
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klee (OP)
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June 18, 2015, 05:33:34 AM |
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 Resistance 248-256$ (based on the previous spike, not the horizontal red lines). |
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klee (OP)
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June 18, 2015, 06:20:51 AM |
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The late great Earl Blumenthal used to say that the first sell signal in an uptrend was really a buy signal..
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klee (OP)
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June 18, 2015, 06:43:12 AM |
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Donchian channels:  Orange line is resistance - if broken support. |
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Amph
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June 18, 2015, 07:03:28 AM |
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it does seems another dead cat bounce, but maybe we have corrected the price a bit, toward 240, instead of staying all the time at 230
it would be a small good sign nonetheless
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klee (OP)
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June 18, 2015, 07:10:36 AM |
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it does seems another dead cat bounce, but maybe we have corrected the price a bit, toward 240, instead of staying all the time at 230
it would be a small good sign nonetheless
Whenever an asset breaks the bearish resistance line from an ATH (like we did) there is always often a correction down to this line again (on top of it this time). I was expecting this so maybe we will breakout up again! If we hold this level this would be the case IMO - if we have one more box down (240), probably we are going to test 225-230.. |
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klee (OP)
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June 18, 2015, 07:20:38 AM |
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Guys do you like this analysis? Did it help you make a good trade? I want to see if people actually got some results with it, besides finding it interesting. Share your experience if you like  |
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TPTB_need_war
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June 18, 2015, 07:30:20 AM |
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time to sell already ? i cant read the market, im lost Probably the time to buy. Hold for $315 then sell and go short. Might come down a bit lower so average your buys, not all at once, unless you see < $230, then buy the all the rest you want. I don't place great odds on this breakout failing to ascend to $300+, but anything is possible. kLee can probably tell you what your stops should be, in case you want to sell out if we are breaking down heading for $150 again. |
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klee (OP)
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June 18, 2015, 07:34:31 AM |
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time to sell already ? i cant read the market, im lost Probably the time to buy. Hold for $315 then sell and go short. Might come down a bit lower so average your buys, not all at once, unless you see < $230, then buy the all the rest you want. I don't place great odds on this breakout failing to ascend to $300+, but anything is possible. kLee can probably tell you what your stops should be, in case you want to sell out if we are breaking down heading for $150 again. Man sorry for disappearing I will try to answer you asap, I have one week to sleep properly with this damn crazy market... |
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TPTB_need_war
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June 18, 2015, 07:43:25 AM |
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time to sell already ? i cant read the market, im lost Probably the time to buy. Hold for $315 then sell and go short. Might come down a bit lower so average your buys, not all at once, unless you see < $230, then buy the all the rest you want. I don't place great odds on this breakout failing to ascend to $300+, but anything is possible. kLee can probably tell you what your stops should be, in case you want to sell out if we are breaking down heading for $150 again. Man sorry for disappearing I will try to answer you asap, I have one week to sleep properly with this damn crazy market... No rush mate. take care of your important business first. |
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klee (OP)
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June 18, 2015, 08:33:42 AM |
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 Resistance 248-256$ (based on the previous spike, not the horizontal red lines). In HL chart the 3O are a projection - they will be confirmed after 1d. BUT in HL charts the current column has priority, so if we move up to 260 in price we will make a new X and the 3O will be deleted |
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