PnF TA

[klee]

https://thomasdorsey.wordpress.com/2015/07/25/its-not-what-you-look-at-that-matters-its-what-you-see-henry-david-thoreau/

[1714933817]

1714933817

[1714933817]

1714933817

[1714933817]

1714933817

[1714933817]

1714933817

[klee]

292$

[Wexlike]

292$

If we break 292, next resistance is at 305, then a possible double top at 317, after that moon ?

[klee]

292$

If we break 292, next resistance is at 305, then a possible double top at 317, after that moon ?

Basically we have resistance up to the last X top (296) and we have to breakout at 300 to get past this first line.
Then there is the 300-304 resistance and of course, as you said, the last high (316).

So if someone wants to be as less risky as possible he has to wait for 320.

I would say that if we pass 305 for good (we hit 308) it is pretty safe to enter.

What is very risky here is two things:

1) The breakout is exactly in the historical 300$ milestone. I expect bears to get really nasty there.
2) We had a tripple bottom break before the next possible double top break, which in general has to be taken very cautiously because it has higher chances of being a bulltrap.

1+2 are pretty synergistic IMO so I would wait for 300-305 area to be left for good behind before I enter. But this is just me of course...

[klee]

Just to clarify: breaking a resistance/support line in PF is NOT a buy/sell signal.

[TPTB_need_war]

Wexlike, he is trying to determine the highest price he can short from. Each higher level has a lower probability of being reached. The probability we are in a new bull market is very, very low but not 0%.

I believe the shorts will pile on between $296 and $305 and that will the end of it. But we might have a lot of meandering to go yet before the real enchilada. Traders have to remain flexible.

If it were me and wanting to K.I.S.S., I would set my shorts at $300 with at least $50 - $70 of margin (note however that mean losing 1/6 to 1/4 of your BTC if you get stopped out by rising price). kLee may prefer a strategy of tighter stops and reenter, I dunno ask him. I am not leveraged shorting but I did sell all BTC for dollars. I banned myself from margin shorting because I need to focus on programming and not watching investments.

I am being a bit noisy about this coming collapse in the non-dollar asset prices, because:

1. I want to help those who are wise so there will still be some capital remaining to invest in crypto at the bottom. To keep crypto markets alive and help restart the next bull market.

2. I want people to learn to respect Martin Armstrong's computer models. Note I am not saying you can't use kLee's methods to try to gauge finer control over entry and exit points. The knowledge about macro correlations certainly can aid the computation of probabilities on the day trading PnF. For example my first paragraph in this post.

[klee]

kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)

[darlidada]

kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)

I like it ! Have you begin to entry a shorting position right now? We just broke 292 and it looks so tempting. I'll wait for 3XX though

[klee]

kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)

I like it ! Have you begin to entry a shorting position right now? We just broke 292 and it looks so tempting. I'll wait for 3XX though

Will wait to see in the sidelines - if we fail to break 304 and fall below 295 I will short.

[darlidada]

kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)

I like it ! Have you begin to entry a shorting position right now? We just broke 292 and it looks so tempting. I'll wait for 3XX though

Will wait to see in the sidelines - if we fail to break 304 and fall below 295 I will short.

Same scenario you have in mind if we fail to break 315?

BTW: we raised on a sunday. IIRC everytime we did, we raised a lot on the following monday. lets grab some free money and go long now and short at 315

[klee]

kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)

I like it ! Have you begin to entry a shorting position right now? We just broke 292 and it looks so tempting. I'll wait for 3XX though

Will wait to see in the sidelines - if we fail to break 304 and fall below 295 I will short.

Same scenario you have in mind if we fail to break 315?

BTW: we raised on a sunday. IIRC everytime we did, we raised a lot on the following monday. lets grab some free money and go long now and short at 315

I will start opening small longs in every fall (above 300) if we hit 308. I will watch closely for 315 and if not broken in volume I may sell. Hard to say what I will do in this scenario, will have to see & decide live based on the circumstances).

I opened a small position at 291 and will sell if I see it weak up to 315.

[klee]

If we make a reversal (3Os at 280) before we move more up I am very undecided on what to do.

Open long at support there or short at the bounce at 285?

I will decide based on the circumstances again...

[TPTB_need_war]

kLee I would suggest that when the locality focused PnF becomes noisy and you are unclear, then back out to macro information for support:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg11954651#msg11954651

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1133160.msg11972132#msg11972132

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1133160.msg11976538#msg11976538

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg11972592#msg11972592

[klee]

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):

Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?

[uvwvj]

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):

Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?

PnF me some USD then,

[ask]

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):

Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?

It wont repeat.  Last summer bitcoin had convex PSAR,  now it has concave PSAR (1w graph). It is moon time now.  Is it good?  Depends on which side you are...

[Afrikoin]

kLee prophecy for the lolz:

315 -> 125 -> 215 -> 75 -> 145

EDIT: That is a bearish scenario if we fail to break 300$ again for good (>320)

Really? Is $320 that crucial?

[bassclef]

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):

Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?

I think the market is in a different place technically... we really didn't get a high volume capitulation before the run to $600 last summer, so there was still excess supply waiting in the wings to bring the price down. Contrast that to the record high volume in January during the selloff to $166--that event alone was enough to make the market bullish for some time. And if you've been watching the tape, volume trailed off dramatically in May/June with multiple failed tests to the lows. If we could have sold off, it would have been then. That's enough to convince me that there aren't enough sellers to bring the price down very far, even if we fail to break $315 definitively.

[inca]

Looks like week of Aug 10 will ensue the big sell off in gold (and probably also Bitcoin):

Do you know when the big sell off started the previous summer (from the 685$ high to 165$ bottom)? August 11th!

It made a nice double top 685$ and 665$ and the rest is history...
Will it repeat itself (315 and 305?)?

I think the market is in a different place technically... we really didn't get a high volume capitulation before the run to $600 last summer, so there was still excess supply waiting in the wings to bring the price down. Contrast that to the record high volume in January during the selloff to $166--that event alone was enough to make the market bullish for some time. And if you've been watching the tape, volume trailed off dramatically in May/June with multiple failed tests to the lows. If we could have sold off, it would have been then. That's enough to convince me that there aren't enough sellers to bring the price down very far, even if we fail to break $315 definitively.

I agree bassclef. We may or may not breach 300/315 in the next hours/days but the bear is over. The capitulation low in January was obvious to many on here and now after six months we have a very bullish technical picture appearing. Accumulation time may be coming to and end.

[klee]

I explained above why the current setup makes me cautious.
That does not mean I know where it will go (neutral ATM except some 'scalps') and we (everyone here) try with TA (TPTB with TA+fundamentals) to figure out a possible direction with every clue we can find in our charts.

In order to provide some more clues why a triple break must always be treated with caution in a counter signal, I will provide some more examples from BTC chart.

Coincidentally the first one is from the double top I mentioned before of last summer. I see many similarities with back then but there are of course differences too.
Not sure what will happen if we double top now (same or different pattern) but BTC tends to repeat patterns (don't you dare deny this! ).

So here is the first chart:



That was a very strong sell signal and a first serious warning that this asset should be treated with extreme caution! Even the subsequent strong double top could not reverse this and then we fell even harder!

We fell down to 445 and bounced at 530 - then another triple bottom (468) break finished any chances of recovery! We fell to 275:




275 to 410 and the another triple bottom at 368 sends us at 315. Then we rally up to 475 and we get another triple bottom at 365 which brings us at 165! :




That was the last time we encountered such a signal until the recent one.