PnF TA

[Fakhoury]

I explained above why the current setup makes me cautious.
That does not mean I know where it will go (neutral ATM except some 'scalps') and we (everyone here) try with TA (TPTB with TA+fundamentals) to figure out a possible direction with every clue we can find in our charts.

In order to provide some more clues why a triple break must always be treated with caution in a counter signal, I will provide some more examples from BTC chart.

Coincidentally the first one is from the double top I mentioned before of last summer. I see many similarities with back then but there are of course differences too.
Not sure what will happen if we double top now (same or different pattern) but BTC tends to repeat patterns (don't you dare deny this! ).

So here is the first chart:



That was a very strong sell signal and a first serious warning that this asset should be treated with extreme caution! Even the subsequent strong double top could not reverse this and then we fell even harder!

We fell down to 445 and bounced at 530 - then another triple bottom (468) break finished any chances of recovery! We fell to 275:




275 to 410 and the another triple bottom at 368 sends us at 315. Then we rally up to 475 and we get another triple bottom at 365 which brings us at 165! :




That was the last time we encountered such a signal until the recent one.

Thank you Klee for this informative post.

How is this releated to our current situation now ?

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[klee]

We need to break 320 IMO or we were in a countertrend rally and the bear trend is not over.

In this case I think we will see 100% sub 200s again and maybe double digits. It will take time though.

[Fakhoury]

We need to break 320 IMO or we were in a countertrend rally and the bear trend is not over.

In this case I think we will see 100% sub 200s again and maybe double digits. It will take time though.

Lets say we didn't break the 320 and the bear market is not over, why we would have a massive dip to sub 200s and double digits ?

Edit : And doesn't double digits sounds unrealisitc ?

[8up]

@klee - do you have an inversed P&F chart. Just curious.

[klee]

@klee - do you have an inversed P&F chart. Just curious.

Inversed? You mean USDBTC? Probably I can to it in TradingView with a formula (1/Bitfinex:USD)

[klee]

Damn it was seconds before I short it at 292 

Fakhoury I think the answers to your questions are obvious, can't elaborate on the profounds.

[klee]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/25/gold-is-doomed/

EDIT:

'Now, the problem with gold is it doesn't pay any interest or dividends, but it does cost money to store.'

So this is where gold and BTC may differ! TPTB??

[8up]

@klee - do you have an inversed P&F chart. Just curious.

Inversed? You mean USDBTC? Probably I can to it in TradingView with a formula (1/Bitfinex:USD)

yes

[klee]

@klee - do you have an inversed P&F chart. Just curious.

Inversed? You mean USDBTC? Probably I can to it in TradingView with a formula (1/Bitfinex:USD)

yes

Not sure what to make out of this, but looks very bearish:

[8up]

@klee - do you have an inversed P&F chart. Just curious.

Inversed? You mean USDBTC? Probably I can to it in TradingView with a formula (1/Bitfinex:USD)

yes

Not sure what to make out of this, but looks very bearish:

Me not either. Thanks anyway.

[dragonseer]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/25/gold-is-doomed/

EDIT:

'Now, the problem with gold is it doesn't pay any interest or dividends, but it does cost money to store.'

So this is where gold and BTC may differ! TPTB??

It's not a bad idea to have a safe, and it costs around the same as a hardware wallet for Bitcoin. The article uses 'Goldbugs' as a derogatory term as if to insult people that go against the norm of centralized and debt based economies. It seems to me, with the US dollar rising against just about everything else at the moment, that a bubble will burst sometime in September/October. It could be that that some other powers will form a coalition and propose a new global 'Reserve Currency' pegged to Gold as our most traditional standard of wealth. This article shows a certain kind of hubris that foreshadows this exact scenario.

[klee]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/25/gold-is-doomed/

EDIT:

'Now, the problem with gold is it doesn't pay any interest or dividends, but it does cost money to store.'

So this is where gold and BTC may differ! TPTB??

It's not a bad idea to have a safe, and it costs around the same as a hardware wallet for Bitcoin. The article uses 'Goldbugs' as a derogatory term as if to insult people that go against the norm of centralized and debt based economies. It seems to me, with the US dollar rising against just about everything else at the moment, that a bubble will burst sometime in September/October. It could be that that some other powers will form a coalition and propose a new global 'Reserve Currency' pegged to Gold as our most traditional standard of wealth. This article shows a certain kind of hubris that foreshadows this exact scenario.

Don't wanna dissappoint you but the new reserve is already known (SDR) and will have nothing to do with gold!

I don't like his hubris though, I agree.

[dragonseer]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/25/gold-is-doomed/

EDIT:

'Now, the problem with gold is it doesn't pay any interest or dividends, but it does cost money to store.'

So this is where gold and BTC may differ! TPTB??

It's not a bad idea to have a safe, and it costs around the same as a hardware wallet for Bitcoin. The article uses 'Goldbugs' as a derogatory term as if to insult people that go against the norm of centralized and debt based economies. It seems to me, with the US dollar rising against just about everything else at the moment, that a bubble will burst sometime in September/October. It could be that that some other powers will form a coalition and propose a new global 'Reserve Currency' pegged to Gold as our most traditional standard of wealth. This article shows a certain kind of hubris that foreshadows this exact scenario.

Don't wanna dissappoint you but the new reserve is already known (SDR) and will have nothing to do with gold!

I don't like his hubris though, I agree.

Ha ha. When I mentioned a 'coaltion of powers', I wasn't referring to the IMF, which amongst other things, is a villain in this current Greek crisis.

[klee]

296

[Wexlike]

For me, it looks like its impossible to predict the short term. First a sign of weakness(down to 285) followed by strong volume and pushing against 300$.

Seriously, how can someone profitable go short or long in such an insane/unpredictable market ?

[klee]

For me, it looks like its impossible to predict the short term. First a sign of weakness(down to 285) followed by strong volume and pushing against 300$.

Seriously, how can someone profitable go short or long in such an insane/unpredictable market ?

Soon the market will have to decide (>320 or <270) and you will be relative safe to invest accordingly...

[TPTB_need_war]

The Chinese are getting in the mood to short everything. Once they realize they make more money with their money by putting up as margin shorting than buying becomes the new fad. You think they won't short Bitcoin too?

All assets other than the dollar are going be toasted by shorting over the next months as we head into the contagion that has been assured by the rising interest rates confirmed by the Fed leak a this past week.

[klee]

Bulls you'd better break out because a double top failure (reversal at 284 and below) here would be the 2nd bearish signal in a row.

The third would be a double bottom break of 272 (AND violation of bearish resistance line). In that case any sensible person would close longs asap!

There are much at stake in the following supply & demand battle.

[bitone]

Bulls you'd better break out because a double top failure (reversal at 284 and below) here would be the 2nd bearish signal in a row.

Where exactly do you see a potential busted double? Thanks!

[klee]

Bulls you'd better break out because a double top failure (reversal at 284 and below) here would be the 2nd bearish signal in a row.

Where exactly do you see a potential busted double? Thanks!

The bottom? 125 and then 50-75