PnF TA

[Dump3er]

Cool thread. Looks very interesting.

[1714913501]

1714913501

[1714913501]

1714913501

[klee]

To all perma bull/bears - I am neither.

But I think BTC (as most say) will have to either be at least 5 figure (minimum for me if it succeeds should be 50K USD / BTC) or almost 0.
I am not predicting the direction - I know though the importance of the 300$ barrier.
It is 4th time we retest it this year. IMO there is no room for another failure. Whatever that means..


BTW, below 50$ the project should be considered dead.

[uvwvj]

Either its $50k a coin or BUST for me also, but I am a perma bull though also.

Another $300 failure is not a failure, we are at 14.4M coins mined out of the 21, we still have a large amount of glut out there.

Bitcoin is not dead until at least 2021 (2 halvings) even if at $50.

Emission Curve BTC
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0

[slap]

thats what satoshi said: all or zero

[Afrikoin]

This article on zero hedge got me thinking "The Hunt For The "Mystery" Gold "Bear Raid" Leader Begins"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-23/hunt-mystery-gold-bear-raid-leader-begins

while the actual selling reason was irrelevant, the target was clear: to breach the $1080 gold price which also happens to be the multi-decade channel support level."

keywords: shorters, aggressive manipulation, forced sell stops, Chinese etc etc

Martin Armstrong mentioned something about shorting and Chinese traders seeking thrills elsewhere

[spazzdla]

To all perma bull/bears - I am neither.

But I think BTC (as most say) will have to either be at least 5 figure (minimum for me if it succeeds should be 50K USD / BTC) or almost 0.
I am not predicting the direction - I know though the importance of the 300$ barrier.
It is 4th time we retest it this year. IMO there is no room for another failure. Whatever that means..


BTW, below 50$ the project should be considered dead.

I couldn't agree more.  There is no it stays at a pathetic 4 Bill market cap situation.  IN 10 years it will be worth a lot or completely nothing.

[klee]

Ok, I will give some possible scenarios now. Surprisingly enough I realised yesterday that a fall from 296 can be extremely bullish in some of them.

Let's forget the sideways scenario (which is of course possible) because no one cares here.

Scenarios:

1) Go directly to breakout from 296 at 300. This has been covered above. Wait for the 300-310 area to get cleared and FOMO.
2) Fall and then rise again at 300. Extremely bullish because we have triple top breakout which is more than enough to counter the previous triple bottom break. We buy with both hands!
The fall can have two cases:
    a) Lower Higher low down to 276
    b) Double bottom at 272.
Both very bullish

3) The most interesting one! Shakeout... Covered in depth above.
We double bottom break 272 down 1-2 boxes (probably in the 265 area) and reverse (3X). It is a shakeout pattern and is a BUY at the reversal.

4) Fall lower (box at 260). Bearish. Support at around 250. But be extremely careful with longs. If we close below 244 short every bounce. It is going sub 200s.

Happy safe trading everyone!

[8up]

Ok, I will give some possible scenarios now. Surprisingly enough I realised yesterday that a fall from 296 can be extremely bullish in some of them.

Let's forget the sideways scenario (which is of course possible) because no one cares here.

Scenarios:

1) Go directly to breakout from 296 at 300. This has been covered above. Wait for the 300-310 area to get cleared and FOMO.
2) Fall and then rise again at 300. Extremely bullish because we have triple top breakout which is more than enough to counter the previous triple bottom break. We buy with both hands!
The fall can have two cases:
    a) Lower low down to 276
    b) Double bottom at 272.
Both very bullish

3) The most interesting one! Shakeout... Covered in depth above.
We double bottom break 272 down 1-2 boxes (probably in the 265 area) and reverse (3X). It is a shakeout pattern and is a BUY at the reversal.

4) Fall lower (box at 260). Bearish. Support at around 250. But be extremely careful with longs. If we close below 244 short every bounce. It is going sub 200s.

Happy safe trading everyone!

Couldn't agree more.

[inca]

Ok, I will give some possible scenarios now. Surprisingly enough I realised yesterday that a fall from 296 can be extremely bullish in some of them.

Let's forget the sideways scenario (which is of course possible) because no one cares here.

Scenarios:

1) Go directly to breakout from 296 at 300. This has been covered above. Wait for the 300-310 area to get cleared and FOMO.
2) Fall and then rise again at 300. Extremely bullish because we have triple top breakout which is more than enough to counter the previous triple bottom break. We buy with both hands!
The fall can have two cases:
    a) Lower Higher low down to 276
    b) Double bottom at 272.
Both very bullish

3) The most interesting one! Shakeout... Covered in depth above.
We double bottom break 272 down 1-2 boxes (probably in the 265 area) and reverse (3X). It is a shakeout pattern and is a BUY at the reversal.

4) Fall lower (box at 260). Bearish. Support at around 250. But be extremely careful with longs. If we close below 244 short every bounce. It is going sub 200s.

Happy safe trading everyone!

Excellent summary of the current situation.

It will take fairly aggressive selling to break the bullishness in the market with, as you describe, many support levels on the way down, versus minimal resistance at 300 and 315 going upwards..

I am keeping my eye on the finex leverage though - up to >30 million USD..

[klee]

Meanwhile LTC moved 1 box up right onto the 5$ resistance yesterday:

[klee]

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35391

"This is not about fundamental news. Good traders have always known to buy the rumor and sell the news, exactly as we just saw with gold and China. If the trend is bearish, good news is never good enough, and in a bull market, bearish news is disregarded. Beware of fundamental analysis who trade by short-term for it is the trend that remains your friend. The fundamentals come into play only for the long-term trends. Markets move in anticipation of what might happen even if it never materializes."

[klee]

A song dedicated to idiots (like Tuur) that catch falling knives:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zqUGrnyZGY

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

A song dedicated to idiots (like Tuur) that catch falling knives:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zqUGrnyZGY

ahaha I like it!

[klee]

http://prntscr.com/7ytx1o

[Fakhoury]

http://prntscr.com/7ytx1o

Head and Shoulder pattern, I feel you are right, Klee.

[ask]

http://prntscr.com/7ytx1o

It is not the same.

- compare 50, 100, 200 MA on daily now and then.
- compare 1w PSAR now & then

[klee]

http://prntscr.com/7ytx1o

It is not the same.

- compare 50, 100, 200 MA on daily now and then.
- compare 1w PSAR now & then

Your zoom factor is not objective. Why 1d or why 1w? This is the problem with your TA, you see what you wanna see.

What I see in both situations is double top failures, supply took over demand. The price is the ultimate truth. Go hide behind numbers & indicators to avoid the cold hard truth because you are long (I am still neutral).

[klee]

http://prntscr.com/7yuyqi

[ask]

http://prntscr.com/7ytx1o

It is not the same.

- compare 50, 100, 200 MA on daily now and then.
- compare 1w PSAR now & then

Your zoom factor is not objective. Why 1d or why 1w? This is the problem with your TA, you see what you wanna see.

What I see in both situations is double top failures, supply took over demand. The price is the ultimate truth. Go hide behind numbers & indicators to avoid the cold hard truth because you are long (I am still neutral).

Yes proudly long 10BTC.

[klee]

http://prntscr.com/7ytx1o

It is not the same.

- compare 50, 100, 200 MA on daily now and then.
- compare 1w PSAR now & then

Your zoom factor is not objective. Why 1d or why 1w? This is the problem with your TA, you see what you wanna see.

What I see in both situations is double top failures, supply took over demand. The price is the ultimate truth. Go hide behind numbers & indicators to avoid the cold hard truth because you are long (I am still neutral).

Yes proudly long 10BTC.

You can hold them in cold storage/paper wallet without bothering at all IMO. Unless we break 210.