PnF TA

[TPTB_need_war]

Klee, could you update us a bit about BTC, didn't see some charts and speculation from you since few days ago.

Thank you.

Smart money are accumulating at the bullish support (276$) while desperate bears and weak hands are doing the opposite.

The last chart still holds, breakout at 300$ or doom below 270$.

IMO if we go above 287 chances are we gonna test 300 again.

Resistance is 288-296 and some mild one 282 - 284 286.

I am still thinking BTC is coiling the spring for another test of that long-term trend line which is pushing $325 ± $10.

As you say, we will likely know based on whether it falls down through key levels.

I've been happy that BTC is patient about making its summer bounce top, as this has afforded more time to liquidate BTC and prepare.

[hodlmybtc]

Next year we will bottom and see the interest in private assets grow again, but it will be driven more by anti-government sentiment (due to expropriation in the EU) and thus anonymous coins will receive much more interest than Bitcoin.

Klee, out of curiosity, and by no means wanting to get out of subject, do  you own any of this?

No, not a long term investor. I will buy above 350K or between 120-155K for trading purposes.

ATM is the 2nd best in town (1st is Zoidberg's BBR but not so successful for various reasons). I wait for someone to implement TPTB's proposal and I will invest long term.
Also zerocash (if they ever deliver).

To me it's pretty likely that XMR will go above 350k soon, look at the last 2 daily candles:



Also as far as I could read in the Poloniex chat the whales aren't done buying yet, they just started.

Why didn't buy some around 170-200k? There is way less upside at 350k to me as the 400-430k range is where the last rally ended on and will probably be though resistance unless some real money comes in.

I bet it's your PnF charts huh, is the highest diagonal resistance there? Would be awesome if you could post a XMR chart just 1 time

[klee]

I am out of base so I can't reach my tools & charts but if we take hitbtc at TV (not very represantative but does the trick):



Double top failure at about 0.0034.

Also at 0.005.

At 0.003 though we have a breakout plus breaking 2 resistances so it is a nice buy signal. But not much profit up to 0.0035 where I expect an horizontal tough resistance (double top failure)

EDIT: Also the setup was very bearish, triple bottom break and then another double bottom (which led to lower lows formation too). A buy signal after this maybe a bull trap, so I would wait at least for 2 more Xs so we clear resistances and minimize the chances of a trap (more easy to get traped with only 1 box movement after a breakout/breakdown, usually if you wanna be more safe you wait for another box). Finally, there was no reason for me to buy at 0.0018 (catch the falling knife) but at 0.001 we have a nice double bottom.

[TPTB_need_war]

MA has stated that was likely all the bounce we are going to get. Prepare to re-engage shorts:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35771

[klee]

MA has stated that was likely all the bounce we are going to get. Prepare to re-engage shorts:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35771

IMHO this weekend we must see a pump in BTC if we don't want to go South...

EDIT: BTW I closed my longs yesterday and gave 2/3 of my budget for sure money (swaps). The rest are ready for the next signal..

[klee]

Ok, I will give some possible scenarios now. Surprisingly enough I realised yesterday that a fall from 296 can be extremely bullish in some of them.

Let's forget the sideways scenario (which is of course possible) because no one cares here.

Scenarios:

1) Go directly to breakout from 296 at 300. This has been covered above. Wait for the 300-310 area to get cleared and FOMO.
2) Fall and then rise again at 300. Extremely bullish because we have triple top breakout which is more than enough to counter the previous triple bottom break. We buy with both hands!
The fall can have two cases:
    a) Lower Higher low down to 276
    b) Double bottom at 272.
Both very bullish

3) The most interesting one! Shakeout... Covered in depth above.
We double bottom break 272 down 1-2 boxes (probably in the 265 area) and reverse (3X). It is a shakeout pattern and is a BUY at the reversal.

4) Fall lower (box at 260). Bearish. Support at around 250. But be extremely careful with longs. If we close below 244 short every bounce. It is going sub 200s.

Happy safe trading everyone!

The shakeout scenario is NOT a valid one - the double bottom break has to happen ABOVE the bullish resistance which will not be the case in our setup!
Be careful buying anywhere above 255 IF we break support...

[klee]

EDIT: BTW I closed my longs yesterday and gave 2/3 of my budget for sure money (swaps). The rest are ready for the next signal..

New bid at 269$

268 I am out and will short the bounce.

[klee]

Support officially hit:

[klee]

WALLS REMOVED!!!

LMAO

NEVER TRADE VOLUME (ONLY) AND/OR WALLS!!!!!!

[Wexlike]

There are still people left who look at bitfinex fake walls ? It's just one whale who makes always the same moves.

Edit: You can even see him right now taking out walls just to scare weak hands. I could see walls all the way down to 80$ on bitfinex. Yeah, scary as hell.

[klee]

There are still people left who look at bitfinex fake walls ? It's just one whale who makes always the same moves.

Sadly there are...

[klee]

Double bottom 272$



Will it break?

[klee]

[klee]

BEAR trend again!!!




Both in HL AND CLOSE.

No longs. Short the resistances. Maybe short some double bottom breaks. Close shorts at double top breaks.

Sub 200s?

[ssmc2]

BEAR trend again!!!




Both in HL AND CLOSE.

No longs. Short the resistances. Maybe short some double bottom breaks. Close shorts at double top breaks.

Sub 200s?

You don't think we need to break $250 before that doom scenario comes into play?

[klee]

BEAR trend again!!!




Both in HL AND CLOSE.

No longs. Short the resistances. Maybe short some double bottom breaks. Close shorts at double top breaks.

Sub 200s?

It is a last hope that we will find support with CLOSE 1d:



But regardless, trend is BEAR now at both HL & CLOSE (P&F like)....

I see sub 200s easier than 300+ to be honest. Also, it seems that Martin Armstrong is up to something.

BTC MUST NOT follow Gold and this seems NOT to be the case now...

[Fakhoury]

BEAR trend again!!!




Both in HL AND CLOSE.

No longs. Short the resistances. Maybe short some double bottom breaks. Close shorts at double top breaks.

Sub 200s?

It is a last hope that we will find support with CLOSE 1d:



But regardless, trend is BEAR now at both HL & CLOSE (P&F like)....

I see sub 200s easier than 300+ to be honest. Also, it seems that Martin Armstrong is up to something.

BTC MUST NOT follow Gold and this seems NOT to be the case now...

Next stop is $250 Klee ?

[klee]

Can't tell but most probably we will CLOSE (be careful - NOT Low) above 245.

Possible HL supports are 265, 255, 240:

[dEBRUYNE]

There are still people left who look at bitfinex fake walls ? It's just one whale who makes always the same moves.

Edit: You can even see him right now taking out walls just to scare weak hands. I could see walls all the way down to 80$ on bitfinex. Yeah, scary as hell.

Perhaps the guy (or entity) was a NY resident.

[hodlmybtc]

Thanks for the charts klee! Great job as usual.

If you have the time please update the XMR chart with a Poloniex one, as you said HitBTC isn´t representative and it´s a very shady exchange so I wouldn´t advise anyone to trade there.

Cheers!