PnF TA

[btcdrak]

KLee, excuse the probably ignorant observation, but your chart above has 45 degree angles, but isnt that a feature of the "candlesticks" you're using? I mean, you'll always have 45 degree angles...

[klee]

KLee, excuse the probably ignorant observation, but your chart above has 45 degree angles, but isnt that a feature of the "candlesticks" you're using? I mean, you'll always have 45 degree angles...

These are 'objectives' trendlines:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:pnf_charts:pnf_trendlines

"Trendlines on 3-box Reversal P&F charts are drawn at 45 degrees up and 135 degrees down. An ascending trendline is called a Bullish Support Line and a descending trendline is called a Bearish Resistance Line. Because these lines are drawn at specific angles, they represent a specific rate of ascent or descent. Chartists can use P&F trendlines to define the overall trend and look for signals in the direction of that trend."

EDIT: Of course you can draw 'subjective' ones too, like the purple one in the last chart I posted...

[klee]

https://thomasdorsey.wordpress.com/2015/08/10/the-continuous-commodity-index-uvy-theodore-modis/

"The continuous commodity index has completed a second S-shaped growth step that began in the 1990s. The downward deviation observed since the beginning of 2011 is arriving at its bottom. The turnaround point is expected between 2-Jan-2016 and 8-Aug-2016. From then onward, an upward trend should peak around 9-Aug-2019."

[klee]

Last post is compliant with Martin Armstrong predictions as far as I understand.

TPTB?

I do believe BTC will make new all time highs 2017 or thereafter.

[macsga]

Last post is compliant with Martin Armstrong predictions as far as I understand.

TPTB?

I do believe BTC will make new all time highs 2017 or thereafter.

This is probably right, since the USD/BTC price works -up until now- like a clockwork. The value projection of the next ATH would've been an interesting thing to calculate, though... I've heard thoughts about $3500/BTC maybe they're not far off.

PS: I know I'm talking about these things while we're on a bear trend, but I remember predicting the $1200 ATH with a friend, during the previous consolidation period with pretty high accuracy, back then. Let's see.

[TPTB_need_war]

https://thomasdorsey.wordpress.com/2015/08/10/the-continuous-commodity-index-uvy-theodore-modis/

"The continuous commodity index has completed a second S-shaped growth step that began in the 1990s. The downward deviation observed since the beginning of 2011 is arriving at its bottom. The turnaround point is expected between 2-Jan-2016 and 8-Aug-2016. From then onward, an upward trend should peak around 9-Aug-2019."

Last post is compliant with Martin Armstrong predictions as far as I understand.

TPTB?

I do believe BTC will make new all time highs 2017 or thereafter.

Yep. And MA's computer Socrates is remaining long gold until the first week of September. Appears that Aug. 10 (the yellow bar) is a turning point for a short-covering, short-term rally up to roughly $1140s, not for a crash. So you may want to go long again BTC for another rally up to the long-term trend line at $325±10 before we go short again for the collapse down to double digits:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35822

What changes after 2019, is that Asia's collapse will bottom as of 2020.05 (while the West will continue to spiral off into the demographic, politico-economic decay). That is 2015.75+4.3. Half of an 8.6 year cycle on the ECM (1000 x Pi days).

So perhaps from 2020, there is enough confidence to divest gold and start investing in Asian bonds paying high interest rates. I do believe FATCA will be in full force and enforced by the Chinese against foreigners. So you won't be divesting of your gold without paying the taxman back in your home Western country which might entail very high levels of taxation or even expropriation for "money laundering" when you can't show that you purchased the gold from an "approved dealer" (and other variants of the corrupt nonsense known as Civil Asset Forfeiture). I assume physical cash won't exist by that time, at least not in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Will be interesting to see how cash is phased out in these banana republics such as the Philippines.

This rally is a short-covering rally, but the justification for the greater fools will be that the contagion will demand another QE. Except this time the Fed will be raising interest rates not doing QE.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-10/gold-silver-are-surging-heavy-volume

Hedgies are the most short ever... and Commercials are the least hedged in 14 years... and it appears rumors of PBOC buying along with dismal data from around the world has sparked a renewed awareness of another looming QE sending gold well north of $1100 and silver back above $15.

Let's see if BTC moves up with gold or if they are anti-correlated on short-term moves. I am fairly certain they are correlated on the general down trend. That is the problem with any straightforward correlation calculation, as there are correlations within the correlations. Hidden order is fractal in chaos theory. Armstrong has a computer correlating all these possible fractal orders. Unfortunately he apparently doesn't have enough historical data on Bitcoin to model it.

[ask]

No doom anymore?

[TPTB_need_war]

No doom anymore?

You can't wait a month? Impatient?

[Fakhoury]

https://thomasdorsey.wordpress.com/2015/08/10/the-continuous-commodity-index-uvy-theodore-modis/

"The continuous commodity index has completed a second S-shaped growth step that began in the 1990s. The downward deviation observed since the beginning of 2011 is arriving at its bottom. The turnaround point is expected between 2-Jan-2016 and 8-Aug-2016. From then onward, an upward trend should peak around 9-Aug-2019."

Last post is compliant with Martin Armstrong predictions as far as I understand.

TPTB?

I do believe BTC will make new all time highs 2017 or thereafter.

Yep. And MA's computer Socrates is remaining long gold until the first week of September. Appears that Aug. 10 (the yellow bar) is a turning point for a short-covering, short-term rally up to roughly $1140s, not for a crash. So you may want to go long again BTC for another rally up to the long-term trend line at $325±10 before we go short again for the collapse down to double digits:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35822

What changes after 2019, is that Asia's collapse will bottom as of 2020.05 (while the West will continue to spiral off into the demographic, politico-economic decay). That is 2015.75+4.3. Half of an 8.6 year cycle on the ECM (1000 x Pi days).

So perhaps from 2020, there is enough confidence to divest gold and start investing in Asian bonds paying high interest rates. I do believe FATCA will be in full force and enforced by the Chinese against foreigners. So you won't be divesting of your gold without paying the taxman back in your home Western country which might entail very high levels of taxation or even expropriation for "money laundering" when you can't show that you purchased the gold from an "approved dealer" (and other variants of the corrupt nonsense known as Civil Asset Forfeiture). I assume physical cash won't exist by that time, at least not in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Will be interesting to see how cash is phased out in these banana republics such as the Philippines.

This rally is a short-covering rally, but the justification for the greater fools will be that the contagion will demand another QE. Except this time the Fed will be raising interest rates not doing QE.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-10/gold-silver-are-surging-heavy-volume

Hedgies are the most short ever... and Commercials are the least hedged in 14 years... and it appears rumors of PBOC buying along with dismal data from around the world has sparked a renewed awareness of another looming QE sending gold well north of $1100 and silver back above $15.

Let's see if BTC moves up with gold or if they are anti-correlated on short-term moves. I am fairly certain they are correlated on the general down trend. That is the problem with any straightforward correlation calculation, as there are correlations within the correlations. Hidden order is fractal in chaos theory. Armstrong has a computer correlating all these possible fractal orders. Unfortunately he apparently doesn't have enough historical data on Bitcoin to model it.

Hi bro,

I think it's the first time to talk together, it's my pleasure and hope you are doing well.

I've few questions that I would like to ask if you don't mind.

1. Why we will visit the double digits arena in regards to BTC ?

2. What do you think about bitcoin in 5-10 years from now in terms of price and technology ?

Thank you.

[Wexlike]

TBTB explained his opinions countless times already, how could you miss it?

1. Because all money is moving to the dollar. All other commodities will lose value compared to it. And he believes that we didn't reach the bottom yet because Inca and Risto are still bullish.

2. After that the dollar will collapse and Bitcoin will make new ATHs after 2016.

TBTB, correct me if I am wrong.

[Fakhoury]

TBTB explained his opinions countless times already, how could you miss it?

1. Because all money is moving to the dollar. All other commodities will lose value compared to it. And he believes that we didn't reach the bottom yet because Inca and Risto are still bullish.

2. After that the dollar will collapse and Bitcoin will make new ATHs after 2016.

TBTB, correct me if I am wrong.

Relax mate.

I'm not here 24/7 browesing the forum and this thread specially in details to be this ultra-focused.

Since you engaged in the thread, let me reply on what you said.

1. Why all the money will be moving to USD ?

2. What is the range of price you see bitcoin in 5 and  10 years from now ?

Thanks.

[macsga]

FWIW: Today's news in Greece reveal 11 points of agreement with the EU representatives. What is significant enough, is the fact that they seem NOTHING like the austerity measures we expected! Maybe we're on a verge here or (maybe) there's a change of plans after the global situation (mainly signals from China) seems to go down the drain.

If this turns out to be a success, then we got out of the "punishment" procedures we were, during the last five years and -hopefully- initiates a more "people-friendly" policy towards the people of EU. Too good to be true? Let's just wait and see.

Please use Google translate:
http://www.imerisia.gr/article.asp?catid=26516&subid=2&pubid=113654588

[Wexlike]

I don't claim to be an expert by all means, but i try to answer your questions.

1. Because of the rising interest rate for the dollar  speculative money flows back to the usa. Thus accelerating the debt crisies in foreign countries. European debt crisies. Asian stock market bubble.

You have to understand that currency flow accelerates even more flow, especially speculative money, creating a new bubble. A strong dollar will then break America's economy after that.

2. After 5 years: >10k  or ~0(=dead)
10 years is too far in the distance

[Wexlike]

FWIW: Today's news in Greece reveal 11 points of agreement with the EU representatives. What is significant enough, is the fact that they seem NOTHING like the austerity measures we expected! Maybe we're on a verge here or (maybe) there's a change of plans after the global situation (mainly signals from China) seems to go down the drain.

If this turns out to be a success, then we got out of the "punishment" procedures we were, during the last five years and -hopefully- initiates a more "people-friendly" policy towards the people of EU. Too good to be true? Let's just wait and see.

Please use Google translate:
http://www.imerisia.gr/article.asp?catid=26516&subid=2&pubid=113654588

Direct question: How much does this agreement cost Germany?

[macsga]

FWIW: Today's news in Greece reveal 11 points of agreement with the EU representatives. What is significant enough, is the fact that they seem NOTHING like the austerity measures we expected! Maybe we're on a verge here or (maybe) there's a change of plans after the global situation (mainly signals from China) seems to go down the drain.

If this turns out to be a success, then we got out of the "punishment" procedures we were, during the last five years and -hopefully- initiates a more "people-friendly" policy towards the people of EU. Too good to be true? Let's just wait and see.

Please use Google translate:
http://www.imerisia.gr/article.asp?catid=26516&subid=2&pubid=113654588

Direct question: How much does this agreement cost Germany?

Direct answer: Ask Merkel why she pays for something she won't [ever] get back.

[Wexlike]

Touché.

[macsga]

Back on topic, and to stay on the perspective that will lead the BTC up to the $325 level here's something worth reading:

Blockchain technology, which underpins the digital currency bitcoin, is receiving significant capital investment from banks thanks to its potential to be the ultimate disruptor in today’s financial system, according to the latest report issued by BBVA Compass economists.

Blockchain technology first became part of the public conversation via bitcoin, the peer-to-peer electronic currency system that runs without government backing. It provides the underlying mechanics that allow the digital currency to exist. The bank’s economists say that while interest in bitcoin has evened out, blockchain is drawing more attention because of its ability to safely conduct transactions with no middleman and its potential for applications beyond purely digital currency transactions.

“A technology that has the ability to conduct and verify transactions via an immutable, time-stamped record that is replicated on servers across the globe has immense implications for the banking sector,” said BBVA Compass Chief Economist Nathaniel Karp. “We’re talking about a massive overhaul of the banking industry’s processes and a significant reduction in costs.”
Blockchain is effectively a high-tech public ledger, or a book of recorded transactions, maintained by a community-agreed, distributed network of computers. It requires no central authority or third-party intermediaries. Blockchain has three key components: a transaction, a transaction record and a system that verifies and stores the transaction. It operates similarly to how a bank tracks the money in each of its accounts, but the technology is entirely transparent and distributed widely.

https://ihb.io/2015-08-10/news/bbva-blockchain-technology-poised-financial-industrys-biggest-disruptor-yet-22330

Edit: News courtesy of gotmilk from another thread.

[TPTB_need_war]

FWIW: Today's news in Greece reveal 11 points of agreement with the EU representatives. What is significant enough, is the fact that they seem NOTHING like the austerity measures we expected!

Huh  

They are forcing you to sell off your assets to the creditors:

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/14/greeces-55b-privatization-fund-how-it-will-work.html

All they did was lower the expected surpluses, but you weren't going to be in surplus anyway, so this effectively no change.

All the reforms are still there, including increased taxes, etc.

The IMF was holdout because it wanted to force the privatization fund.

Now the banksters got you by the balls.

Your asshole PM is playing ball with the banksters and he wants to kick out the leftists.

You're fucked.

[macsga]

You're fucked.

I'd never figure this out if you didn't mention it...

Here's a nice joke for you:
Once upon a time there was a dog and a donkey. They both wanted to get laid but no female was around. They agreed to have sex with each other. The first one to pretend he was the female, was the donkey. The dog climbed a rock and successfully accomplished his "task", right after that it was the donkey's turn.

When he got his "thing" inside he asked the dog if he could move a bit, so that it would feel better for him. The dog replied:
"If you pull back a bit, I might be able to move my head"

So, to come back to your comment: That's a fact and won't change; we're talking if we have the ability to move our heads.

[TPTB_need_war]

Of course I wish you all had defaulted, kicked out the banksters as Iceland did. But I know you have a lot of retirees there and quite a lot of Greeks who like to receive handouts. Also TPTB would crush your economy if you did default.

Armstrong was thinking Greece could default and become a safe haven receiving a stampede of ingress of capital (and investing in the devalued Greece), but the USG, Russia, and China have a big militaries. No way they would allow a safe haven that reduces TPTB's hegemony.