PnF TA

[klee]

Bitcoinwisdom 6h - what will happen first?

A CLOSE at 227 is bearish (sell signal), above 231 buy.

It is based on 1box reversal chart which I am doing it manually because TradingView displays it wrong...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13dC3K1PpaOpCzZn1130utnVj2m_S4TYmV_8k0zw_Fho/edit?usp=sharing

The column:

X
X
X
0

is not an error.

[1714127980]

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[klee]

Bought more LTC at 2.55$.

[hdbuck]

Eh i got the feeling it can drop back to 1,5$ at least

[uvwvj]

Twatter?

[suda123]

Some more long term view (for investors and more long term traders):



The box size is based on ATR 100 and it is about 14$.

Pay attention to the double bottom we formed at 220$.
Relatively 'safe' longs:
350-395
450-520
540-680
700-1000
>1200

EDIT: But basically if we break 440$ it is a buy.
         If we break 220 next stop maybe 165$.

EDIT2: Updated image with bullish support line.

Thank you for the chart.

Could you elaborate more about the safe longs please.

Ok, so this is a more long term view again.

According to this chart we have many bearish resistance lines to clear until about 440$.
But we have some room to open a long between about 350 and 400.

After we clear the bearish lines we have to look back at the chart at where we have double tops (or tripple etc) that were not broken, so this is a price where we will have resistance too (maybe we can take some profits, wait to enter again lower etc).

The double bottom at 220 is intact yet, so it is a sign that the bears there failed to penetrate this price.

The most important buy/sell signal is always breaking double tops/bottoms - it is as if there is a brick wall there that was preventing the price to move beyond and it is finally broken!

That said, if we do break out, it will basically be (at about 315) a quadruple top breakout which is VERY bullish signal and you could risk opening a long there too. The higher we go the less the risk, the less the rewards.

Finally, the long term trader or investor could always not sell at the resistances I mentioned (in previous double top failed attempts) but:
1) In the first double bottom break or
2) In the first double bottom break AND penetration of the bullish support line

I use coinbase, what exchange place do you use to sell then buy instantly?

[klee]

Twatter?

Twitter? It is temporarily de-activated because it was a big distraction for me now. I am busy as f@ck trying to setup the services for PF...

I use coinbase, what exchange place do you use to sell then buy instantly?

Not sure if I understand correct - if I was a US citizen I would go with Bitstamp, Kraken & BTCChina because of the shitlicense

[klee]

This is the BTCUSD Alert email sent to my subscribers a couple of days ago -

Part 1, September 2:
In the 1d 2$ box size HL chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xF01GAgu/

we had trend reversal projections (3O). If we move back up at 234$ before the day closes (I think about 24.00 GMT TV closes the day) this will be seen as a double top, where actually it is a TRIPLE top breakout.

We are in a bear trend (thick red line) so we should always be very cautious in opening longs, but this will be a good signal to take IMO.

Resistance in the current X column (if we breakout before the Os projections get confirmed) are at 246-248 & after that 252-254. If we form a triple top breakout, resistance will be at 242-244 & 248-250.

Both these resistances are very strong because they come from double bottom breaks.

I suppose a good strategy would be to sell half at low 240s and other half at high 240s (about 242 and 248 respectively).

On the other hand, if we make another O at 224 (break 225) things will start looking really bad again. Last chance in this setup is 222$. At 220$ we are in very bearish mode and this confirms the 4$ box size chart reversal (details below).

'Bullish' support at 210-212.

Bullish is in quotes because we are in a bear trend and these bullish lines should be taken with great caution.


Medium term (4$ box HL):

The 4$ box HL is exactly on the 232$ resistance, a breakout is at 240$, first resistance 280$ (for a longer term view, in case some people want to hold).

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4tVHzNqj/

If we reverse this will be at 220$ and the 204-208 bullish support is the least I expect to be tested (with a possible temporary stop at 210, as explained above).

To sum up the High/Low charts, 234+ is a good entry point with a take profit at about 245.

If we fail, first stop around 210, second around 205.



Lastly, a look at 1d 2$ CLOSE chart is always very helpful.

I have a 2$ box, as I think that 4$ 1d CLOSE is for more long term investors.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZgFafVbX/


We are sitting on the 230 resistance, buy signal is if we close above 236, first major resistance 260. Support 212-214.


Before I leave you, P&F says we are bearish, so the wise think to do is short here with a stop if we break 235.

This alert was due to a possible hidden triple top breakout pattern that may form in the 2$ HL. Triple tops are very good signals, that's why I am sending this alert.

After all, it may be the first good bull signal after the 315 top, that may lead to a new bull trend. It remains to be seen...




Part 2, September 3:

The 3O reversal is now confirmed:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BwG_jPaq09uxRXBQNHdtZ3VreDFqS3A3M2tvYmlLUldsNmVr/view?usp=sharing

So we will either continue the descent or break the 228-232 resistance in a triple top breakout...
You should only buy after 234 is hit!!!

[klee]

Where we are now:




I had predicted the possible triple top breakout and it finally played  

PS: It could go down too of course but it was an ALERT of a strong signal that MAY form, in order to be prepared....

[klee]

Interesting thing is that if bears push down again but above 225, and we double top again after that, then a bullish catapult will have formed 

[klee]

Interesting thing is that if bears push down again but above 225, and we double top again after that, then a bullish catapult will have formed  

My bet is 236-238, correction down to 228 and then catapult...

[pontikis13]

Thanks a lot for your work Klee

[nakaone]

quality insights here - great

[masterluc]

Yeah, very nice old school analysis

[klee]

I appreciate your kind words guys, this is better reward than the money you can make from TA, I am serious  

[Ivanhoe]

Your thread together with Masterluc's is the only reason i still visit bitcointalk.org

[klee]

Your thread together with Masterluc's is the only reason i still visit bitcointalk.org

You honour me, I respect your views a lot.

Also, Masterluc's thread is in my watch list...

[klee]

Here is a chart I have to fill manually, until I have automated 1 box reversal charts:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HmyfRRDESYORJVI7AscHgOHm6d_YyK4SqeXvdJKIra4/edit?usp=sharing

It is Bitstamp CLOSE, 1x1 chart, from 25-26 Aug until today.

The reason I do this by hand (it is pain in the ass) is that 1 box reversal charts are ideal for congestion/sideways/accumulation-distribution zones, where it can produce some patterns (fulcrums) that actually predict the breakout direction!!

I had struggled to find something like this without success - here it clearly showed accumulation at the 227 area (the pattern is not a fulcrum though, but a continuation pattern of semi catapults). The textbooks say you buy between 227-229 with a stop at 226 and breakout at 232 (remember we are watching CLOSE though, you have to see the 2h closing at these prices).

This is big money as you understand.

[klee]

Daily CLOSE BTS above 2000 satoshi is a buy. ETH 6000 satoshi.
DASH seems that it may have bottomed - buy as close to 1M satoshi as you can & sell if it closes more than 1d below. Buy signal Close 1d above 1.2M satoshi.

[klee]

Forgot NXT! Looks scary as hell at 0.000034 in the daily but it may have triple bottomed here. Very risky trade but may worth the risk. Sell if it closes more than 1d below 0.00003.

[stereotype]

Forgot NXT! Looks scary as hell at 0.000034 in the daily but it may have triple bottomed here. Very risky trade but may worth the risk. Sell if it closes more than 1d below 0.00003.

Have a soft spot for NXT, but its going nowhere despite all the work and features its had. Shame.

Cheeky bids in at low 0.00001000's.