PnF TA

[Fakhoury]

Waiting for you to hear about your opinion about the recent pump and future speculation.

And as you know, I would like to thank you again for all your efforts and time you put to bring a quality thread for us, Klee

[klee]

Resistance is 280 yes.

4$ box size is a medium/long term chart.

Basically the sell signal should be a double bottom break but in this chart is too low. So you either sell at the reversal (228) or you watch a shorter term chart too (like 2x2) where 224 is a sell signal (228 is a support there).

IMO if we spike below 225 is a sell. Also, closing at in the 2h (normal candle chart) is also a sell...

Where did you buy?

Because we are below the bearish resistance, every breakout should be scalped as close to the base as possible - BTC tends not to hold much the X column when bearish.

Bulls climb stairs, bears fall from windows...
 

[..]



I like w / d/ 4h too! The 2h is chosen because I can't find right now datafeed for the 4h timeframe.

2 and 3 box reversal are not that different. What happens is that only 1 box reversal is symmetric, meaning that it sees the changes in the trend as equal. Above 1 box reversal we have asymmetric filters, meaning that it takes more effort for the opposite trend to change the current column. The bigger the number of the boxes for the reversal the more you focus on the current trend.

A good choice is 3 boxes (as most people use) but many think that a middle solution is better (between 1 & 3). So they say it is not as sensitive as 1 but does not keep you in the current trend too long too.

Also keep in mind that HL will keep you in the current trend when there is at least 1 more box change in the same direction, even if you may have an opposite reversal of many boxes.

So I started experimenting recently with 2 box reversals and I think I prefer them for short to medium term trading.

As you see P&F is an art (as all TA) because you have to look the market from many PoVs in order to see better what's going on. Modern optimisation methods make this process more objective but human intelligence/wisdom is still the deciding factor.

Regarding the resistance & pullback, normally we should stop around here, I agree. But as you know usually BTC overextends - I would not be surprised to see another leg up to 245 maybe even 255 area. There are a lot of shorts to get squeezed there..

But never forget CLOSE (2x2 or 2x3) - if we end the day (until the real markets open tomorrow) in a double top formation (236+) my bet is that it will be a very bullish week or two. In the weekly we already have 2 green candles, usually BTC makes 4-5 candles of the same colour. I would not be surprised in an environment that only dollar is strengthening (and I expect from analysis based on Martin Armstrong & Theodore Modis that the bottom for all assets will be somewhere between Jan and Aug, most probably spring) if cryptos show strength too, things may get ridiculously bullish again.

IMO if BTC manages to close a week above 250 it will be the beginning of an epic rally.
Think about it - for about a year the bears & bulls are fighting in the 200-300 area, big accumulation- distribution, many attempts to break both borders.
But despite all doom (even a damn fork!) BTC survives the pressure and shows strength while everything is collapsing and bulls push again above 250 and finally 300, then?...

REASSERTION


Regarding support, 228+ up to 230 is a very good buying opportunity! Stop if we break 225.

[klee]

Waiting for you to hear about your opinion about the recent pump and future speculation.

And as you know, I would like to thank you again for all your efforts and time you put to bring a quality thread for us, Klee

Thanks Fakhoury, not sure yet on this pump - if we hit 260 things will start to get very serious. But we may have sideways and we are still in a bear trend so every fall below the old low (now about 225) is very dangerous for the bulls.

[klee]

Forgot NXT! Looks scary as hell at 0.000034 in the daily but it may have triple bottomed here. Very risky trade but may worth the risk. Sell if it closes more than 1d below 0.00003.

Have a soft spot for NXT, but its going nowhere despite all the work and features its had. Shame.

Cheeky bids in at low 0.00001000's.

Good bounce NXT - too bad I have no funds at Polo to buy BTS & NXT 

[klee]

Daily CLOSE BTS above 2000 satoshi is a buy. ETH 6000 satoshi.
DASH seems that it may have bottomed - buy as close to 1M satoshi as you can & sell if it closes more than 1d below. Buy signal Close 1d above 1.2M satoshi.

BTS will probably close above 2000 satoshi, DASH will test 1M.

Forgot NXT! Looks scary as hell at 0.000034 in the daily but it may have triple bottomed here. Very risky trade but may worth the risk. Sell if it closes more than 1d below 0.00003.

Have a soft spot for NXT, but its going nowhere despite all the work and features its had. Shame.

Cheeky bids in at low 0.00001000's.

Good bounce NXT - too bad I have no funds at Polo to buy BTS & NXT  

[klee]

Can someone find me these books? :

http://www.amazon.com/dp/2970021692
http://www.amazon.com/dp/2970021609/

Will really appreciate this...

Thanks in advance!

[klee]

Email sent to subscribers...

EDIT: In case I missed someone...

[klee]

GOLD:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24GOLD,PGPBDANRNO[PA][D][F1!3!3.0!!2!20]


Bullish down to 1000$. This is a long term (percentage) chart, medium & short term Gold is bearish.

Buy here & sell if we break 985? Sounds good to me...

[klee]

LTC gave a sell signal:



Support 2.7-2.75, stoploss 2.65

[klee]

BTC too:

[klee]

What I sent a couple of hours ago to my subscribers:

================================================================================================
Hi all,

I was extremely busy lately and did not manage to do the report I was planning.

But we have an alert for sell if BTC hits 238 at Bitstamp and LTC 2.9$ at BTC-e.

This is a pretty much short term signal but given the overall crypto market trend (bearish) and the importance of the resistance levels reached, it is advised to pay very close attention to this pullback.

I will try to make an in depth report about everything later today/tonight.
================================================================================================

Support for LTC is 2.7-2.75, stoploss 2.65$

BTC is trickier, we have a first bullish support at 232-234, then the previous double bottom at 226 (basically 225) and then another bullish support 218-220.

Again, these are based on short term HL charts (I will post them asap) and should be treated with caution (again, I want to remind that the bullish support lines are NOT so effective when a bearish resistance is present above...).
================================================================================================

Bitstamp, 2h CLOSE, 1x1


246                                                                                                                                   
245                                                                                                       X   X                       
244                                                                                                       X   0   0                   
243                                                                                               X       X       0                   
242                                                                                               X   0   X       0                   
241                                                                                           X   X   0   X       0                   
240                                                                                           X   0   0   0                           
239                                                                                           X                                       
238                                                                                           X                                       
237                                                                                           X                                       
236                                                                                           X                                       
235                                                                                           X                                       
234                                           X                                           X   X                                       
233                                           X   0                                       X   0                                       
232                                           X   0                                       X                                           
231                                           X   0                       X               X                                           
230                       X                   X   0   X                   X   0   X       X                                           
229                       X   0               X   0   0   X   X   X       X   0   X   0   X                                           
228                       X   0       X       X       0   0   0   X   0   X   0   X   0                                               
227                       X   0       X   0   X               0       0       0                                                       
226                       X   0   X   X   0   X                                                                                       
225               X       X   0   X   0   0   X                                                                                       
224       X       X   0   X   0           0   X                                                                                       
223       X   0   X   0   X               0   X                                                                                       
222       X   0       0   X               0                                                                                           
221       X           0                                                                                                               
220       X                      


Support 240, sell if we close 239 and lower.
================================================================================================


I decided to add the previous setup ALWAYS in my short term analysis, because sometimes the HL charts are very noisy, especially when we use small box size and/or reversal (eg reversal of 2 boxes).

So now we have TWO ways of predicting a short term move (for day traders) - one is the daily 2x2 HL and the other is the 2h 1x1 CLOSE.

In our case we sell if we hit 238 in the first one OR close below 240 in the second.

Here is the 2x2 chart:



See how the price found solid resistance as predicted (in the 245 area). Also, I have added some bullish resistance lines.
In a possible price recovery and new breakout, we will have a new triple top which will face huge resistance at 250$ which is the red thick line and the bullish resistance from the last spike at 246$.
================================================================================================

EDIT: The pasted excel sucks but...

[klee]

Thanks Fakhoury, not sure yet on this pump - if we hit 260 things will start to get very serious. But we may have sideways and we are still in a bear trend so every fall below the old low (now about 225) is very dangerous for the bulls.

Classical TA agrees, we have to be above 260 to be bullish again:


(PF is classical TA too but you know what I mean)

[Fakhoury]

Thanks Fakhoury, not sure yet on this pump - if we hit 260 things will start to get very serious. But we may have sideways and we are still in a bear trend so every fall below the old low (now about 225) is very dangerous for the bulls.

Classical TA agrees, we have to be above 260 to be bullish again:


(PF is classical TA too but you know what I mean)

Thank you Klee, but $260 is still far my friend.

[klee]

Thanks Fakhoury, not sure yet on this pump - if we hit 260 things will start to get very serious. But we may have sideways and we are still in a bear trend so every fall below the old low (now about 225) is very dangerous for the bulls.

Classical TA agrees, we have to be above 260 to be bullish again:


(PF is classical TA too but you know what I mean)

Thank you Klee, but $260 is still far my friend.

That's why I am posting this, to remind the bulls their duty! 

[klee]

XBT ETN vs NASDAQ COMPOSITE Relative Strength chart (from 18 May 2015 until now), 1x2:



We had a Bearish signal reversed which led up to 110, which means that the ETN was outperforming $COMPQ for 10%.
We retraced almost at the resistance and we are now at 8% better performance from $COMPQ.

The chart has excluded dates that the two markets were not both open and does not take into account the USD SEK fluctuations (it is based on the current rate 1 USD = 8.23340 SEK).

This is the first time a P&F Relative Strength chart of BTC vs an institutional index is presented. I have RS charts for BTC:$BRENT, BTC:$GOLD, BTC:$SPX etc.
Not to be published in public

This chart mean that if NASDAQ is rallying, if we have in this chart X column, BTC is outperforming the NASDAQ market. PF trendlines & patterns apply here too.
If we have 0 columns, better look for a better investment (while of course NASDAQ rallies)...

[klee]

Here is the same chart for Apple:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=AAPL%3A%24COMPQ,PGTBDAYCNO[PA][D][F1!2!!!2!20]

[klee]

Long story short, AAPL is kicking ass while BTC is eating dust....

[Wexlike]

But the Apple chart is for a period of ~15 years, or am i too stupid to read the chart?

[klee]

But the Apple chart is for a period of ~15 years, or am i too stupid to read the chart?

See the last X column, it starts from April this year...

EDIT: Just saw it is basically a triple top!  

[klee]

Email sent to subscribers, BIG Bitcoin & Litecoin move regardless of direction (very strong patterns in both directions)!!!