macsga
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November 01, 2015, 01:04:30 PM |
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A new bear trend is now 33% probable (we closed daily below 318).
Does that mean a bull trend is 66% probable? That would be 67%  Seriously now, nothing has changed significantly; this was a most welcome retrace that signifies the trend is not a bubblish (well, it is, a little) and we may head towards much greater things...  |
Chaos could be a form of intelligence we cannot yet understand its complexity.
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klee (OP)
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November 01, 2015, 01:26:07 PM |
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A new bear trend is now 33% probable (we closed daily below 318).
Does that mean a bull trend is 66% probable? It means we are still in a bull trend. Technically the trendline breaks very low (about 230-240) so I need another tool to estimate if we are gonna test <295 prices. So I use my daily log scale CLOSE charts. 1% already reversed (33% bearish). For every one of the other two (2% & 3%) reversing I am adding another 33%. Up target (345-385) is based on various chart resistances (bullish and/or bearish ones). Lower targets are POs based on reversals of the daily charts: 2x2 HL - 274 4x3 HL - 248 1%x3 - 255 |
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klee (OP)
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November 01, 2015, 01:28:00 PM |
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Also, IMHO we will test the 70 resistance of 1w RSI - this must be somewhere between 345-385.
It will either bounce there (final top) or break it and enter a mega rally, probably towards new ATH.
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klee (OP)
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November 01, 2015, 02:30:26 PM |
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Short term analysis, 2h HL (3$ x 2):  Which channel will prevail? |
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ssmc2
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November 01, 2015, 10:08:04 PM |
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Huh ? What did I just see ? Lol I was making a joke that we reached the TOP. Anyway, 331 is a buy signal.... China did not follow and it double toped at 334. so what happens next? A new bear trend is now 33% probable (we closed daily below 318). Another 33% will be if we close below 310 and another if we close 296 and lower. If this was only a pullback, next stop will be between 345-385 (can't be more accurate at the moment). As for lower targets we have 274, 255, 248 345-385 here we come  |
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klee (OP)
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November 02, 2015, 08:14:04 PM |
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Also, IMHO we will test the 70 resistance of 1w RSI - this must be somewhere between 345-385.
It will either bounce there (final top) or break it and enter a mega rally, probably towards new ATH.
Just happened! |
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macsga
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November 02, 2015, 08:29:46 PM |
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Also, IMHO we will test the 70 resistance of 1w RSI - this must be somewhere between 345-385.
It will either bounce there (final top) or break it and enter a mega rally, probably towards new ATH.
Just happened! Choo Choo...  |
Chaos could be a form of intelligence we cannot yet understand its complexity.
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klee (OP)
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November 02, 2015, 08:51:22 PM |
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Bitstamp 2h HL 3x2 - Almost hit 364 resistance!  BITSTAMP 1d HL 3%x3 - Resistance almost hit too!  BITSTAMP 1d HL 3%x5 - Resistance almost broken!!  BITSTAMP 1d CLOSE 2%x3 - Small x are the live price (we will probably close a lot lower). See where it stopped...  |
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Wexlike
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November 02, 2015, 09:01:09 PM |
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Can you translate your PnF charts to a buy or sell signal ?  (Looks from your chart, that we stopped at a resistance line and we probably go down. Correct ?) |
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macsga
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November 02, 2015, 09:03:27 PM |
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Can you translate your PnF charts to a buy or sell signal ? (Looks from your chart, that we stopped at a resistance line and we probably go down. Correct ?) On the contrary, I'd say when the resistance is broken it IS a buy signal... But yes; we're on the verge right now...  |
Chaos could be a form of intelligence we cannot yet understand its complexity.
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klee (OP)
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November 02, 2015, 09:04:06 PM |
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Can you translate your PnF charts to a buy or sell signal ? (Looks from your chart, that we stopped at a resistance line and we probably go down. Correct ?) They are more of take profit price (364) and buy back in the pull back, so far we have no sell in the daily charts... Now if this was the overall top is hard to know, a sell signal in the daily will probably mean so. |
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klee (OP)
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November 02, 2015, 09:05:17 PM |
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Can you translate your PnF charts to a buy or sell signal ? (Looks from your chart, that we stopped at a resistance line and we probably go down. Correct ?) On the contrary, I'd say when the resistance is broken it IS a buy signal... But yes; we're on the verge right now... The only resistance that was broken was in the CLOSE chart but this will have to be the case until the end of day (2:00 AM Greek time) |
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klee (OP)
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November 02, 2015, 09:42:02 PM |
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Important target is 370-385. Beyond that 450. Beyond that....
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ssmc2
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November 02, 2015, 09:43:04 PM |
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Important target is 370-385. Beyond that 450. Beyond that....
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klee (OP)
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November 02, 2015, 09:44:31 PM |
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Moon was past rally. Now:  |
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ssmc2
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November 02, 2015, 09:45:08 PM |
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Love it
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klee (OP)
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November 02, 2015, 09:54:47 PM |
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Love it  |
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klee (OP)
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November 03, 2015, 07:59:02 AM |
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PnF is based on momentum. Momentum for BTC got really bullish AFTER we broke 350.
Intuitively, many whales (I know some) were willing to buy back only if this price was taken on volume. See this happening live at Bitstamp.
This may be just the beginning.
So 'TA does not work with BTC' has some merit because in trending markets you need momentum tools.
The only method that I have seen (except PnF) that really works in these legs up is macsga's, with whom we already cooperate to incorporate a robust analytical method (based on momentum too) in crypt-XO's toolbox.
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klee (OP)
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November 03, 2015, 09:07:05 AM |
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Possible next daily spike between 460 and 550.
Close the daily at about 450.
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600watt
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November 03, 2015, 09:09:39 AM |
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did i hear 450? |
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