[AUR] Auroracoin market observer

[molecular]

It was suggested in main Auroracoin thread to move discussion about trading, investing etc. to a seperate thread in order to keep that one more focused on development and things not regarding market price.

I can understand why people are put off by others talking about profiting from a hype and all that, but keep in mind that 'investing', even 'gambling' fulfils a function. See post by Zangelbert Dingelback about the social role of the investor

So, feel free to

• discuss AUR price / walls / dump / pumps
• discuss future value of AUR
• vent your emotions about price or other things
• discuss generally about aur / nationcoins / crypto / money / politics / society / science / religion / whatever...

please be civilized and truthful, thanks.

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[molecular]

today saw some really strange price action on cryptsy:



After days, maybe weeks of relatively sideways movement after the runup to 35k had corrected to around 25k, we've seen some downside action.

This wasn't a 'normal' dump as we've seen some before. At least I experienced some strange selling behaviour some time after the big volume had subsided (7:00 to 11:00 in my screenshot). Around 18:00 today after work I had seen what had happened and placed some largish buy orders in the 22 or 23 range (don't remember exactly). Sell bot(s) immediately started eating into it in rapid (about 0.5 to 1.5 seconds apart) single trades ranging in quantity around 5 to 25 AUR each. These came in bursts of maybe 20 to 40 trades. Then a pause and then it would start again. After it had subsided (my order filled 2/3rds) I placed another order slightly higher and the same thing happened again.

Maybe a misbehaving bot?

[molecular]

observing some buy walls (stable so far, it seems, some got eaten into):



seems strong support building around 15000

[kinder112]

Seems like this thread didn't get much love.

As of yesterday we are dipping below 0.00013 with strong down trend.
Seems like the coin is slowly dying. Dev team announced lately that they are almost done with exchange but not much status updates have been given.

Any ideas what might be causing the sudden down trend, did people just start loosing hope in AUR?

[Ingatqhvq]

this coin is still alive, that's suprise me.
                                                                               

[molecular]

Seems like this thread didn't get much love.

As of yesterday we are dipping below 0.00013 with strong down trend.
Seems like the coin is slowly dying. Dev team announced lately that they are almost done with exchange but not much status updates have been given.

Any ideas what might be causing the sudden down trend, did people just start loosing hope in AUR?

I'm still observing and trading the market almost daily.



It didn't take much AUR to push through 15, 14, and 13 (I admit I played a part in that). Sellers are growing increasingly reluctant on the way down and buyers stronger, however. There's a bottom somewhere.

market is extremely thin, very low liquidity. Only a couple of bots and the occasional trader. And of course constant selling pressure from multipools and other miners.

Fundamentally I don't know what the hell will happen. It all depends wether or not the devs and community builders have just been blowing hot air or there is some substance.

AUR can be either a rocket or become completely irrelevant. People buying now are either very smart or will be bag-holders. Take your pick.

[molecular]

2 x 20k sell down to 10 after earlier retraction up to 13



wasn't me this time

more to come? I don't know.

Cheap coins!

[kinder112]

Not so cheap anymore, there was 50k volume transaction just today  looks like some big buys.

[molecular]

Not so cheap anymore, there was 50k volume transaction just today   looks like some big buys.

yes, there's a lot of buy pressure. One huge order at 0.000113 was 63,000 AUR yesterday (now down to 43,000) and other big orders provide good support.

looks like a double bottom to me.



could be a bull trap, but I don't think so.

[molecular]

Not so cheap anymore, there was 50k volume transaction just today   looks like some big buys.

yes, there's a lot of buy pressure. One huge order at 0.000113 was 63,000 AUR yesterday (now down to 43,000) and other big orders provide good support.

looks like a double bottom to me.



could be a bull trap, but I don't think so.

Just to evaluate this: it turned out to be a bull-trap: Price didn't go beyond 0.00015 for the next months, instead it went down to a low of 0.000049 on Oct 14th. So it was a double bottom only for a couple of days. Then more of a dead cat bounce.

[molecular]

Price history on bittrex since roughly the beginning of trading there (excluding initial spike).

Pretty volatile.

[molecular]

here's chart from  bittrex, hourly candles



Bear view: 8000 seems hard to tackle. Bears can't push through, there's a 30k bid there (has been for ages, weeks at least) that doesn't move and below there's more. Too expensive/risky to push down: when the fiat exchange goes live, AUR could shoot up and we're holding the bitcoin bag.

Bull view: Volume is low, seems like miners use the exchange to sell, so we can slowly collect cheap coins. Slippage is high to the upside, though, so patience is a virtue.

[rocanonz]

My guesstimate is that 80% (3000AUR) of mined coins today, are sold on Bittrex on daily basis. If no news in 15 to 20 days, the 8000 level will be broken down.
The guy who placed the buy walls, knew what he is doing. You will never see AUR this cheap again.
Buy, hold and enjoy the ride.

[molecular]

My guesstimate is that 80% (3000AUR) of mined coins today, are sold on Bittrex on daily basis. If no news in 15 to 20 days, the 8000 level will be broken down.

Your guesstimates about miner selling make a lot of sense. Maybe it's a little less, even.

I agree: support around 8000 is grandiose. That 30k support wall has been there forever and doesn't move. And it's not alone. It could well be we're looking at a bottom here.

The guy who placed the buy walls, knew what he is doing. You will never see AUR this cheap again.

Not sure how you mean that. The huge order was pulled, not filled, so the guy didn't buy much (if anything at all). He could've been selling, even. The 10,000 AUR sell wall is still in place, btw.

Buy, hold and enjoy the ride.

Here I basically agree

[rocanonz]

I can be completely wrong, but it doesn't matter 

The 10000 order was placed by a miner who want to cash out. Electricity is not so cheap in Holland or US.
The big order (16BTC) was placed, hoping someone will eat the 10000 AUR cake and knowing that the big bag holders, will not sell a dime with the coming developments. (new algo?, icelandic exchange, AUR merchant tools, etc.)
Still the 10000AUR sell order looks like a good entry point, for anyone who wants to have a decent return in few months, from now on.
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If i remember well, all the big buy orders including the 30000AUR were placed the same time, back in December 2015.
I'm speculating o the idea that they were intended as accumulation and buy support, for AUR and her blockchain for the holidays, when you just want to have a good time. Of course he knew the development perspective for AUR, soon to become real.

[molecular]

@rocanonz

I think your "accumulation and support" over the holidays story is plausible.

This market is very very slow at this time. Low volume and low trading frequency.

I think it's good. Bulls can accumulate what miners mine.

[rocanonz]

My guesstimate is that 80% (3000AUR) of mined coins today, are sold on Bittrex on daily basis. If no news in 15 to 20 days, the 8000 level will be broken down.

Your guesstimates about miner selling make a lot of sense. Maybe it's a little less, even.

I agree: support around 8000 is grandiose. That 30k support wall has been there forever and doesn't move. And it's not alone. It could well be we're looking at a bottom here.

I was right. 8000 support is broken, 18 days latter

[molecular]

My guesstimate is that 80% (3000AUR) of mined coins today, are sold on Bittrex on daily basis. If no news in 15 to 20 days, the 8000 level will be broken down.

Your guesstimates about miner selling make a lot of sense. Maybe it's a little less, even.

I agree: support around 8000 is grandiose. That 30k support wall has been there forever and doesn't move. And it's not alone. It could well be we're looking at a bottom here.

I was right. 8000 support is broken, 18 days latter

Congratulations on a very good calculation.

The astute observer will have noticed that the last 12000 AUR of that wall at 8000 were sold just in the last hour (one trade, actually). This might lessen the perceived validity of above calculation (miner selling should be more steady). Let me assure you it's completely valid: the continual miner selling was buffered slightly above the wall @8000 (after 8400 was broken in a similar manner) and then the buffer was emptied in one go.

What amazes me is that there is no other selling. Only strong hands left?

[ny2cafuse]

My guesstimate is that 80% (3000AUR) of mined coins today, are sold on Bittrex on daily basis. If no news in 15 to 20 days, the 8000 level will be broken down.

Your guesstimates about miner selling make a lot of sense. Maybe it's a little less, even.

I agree: support around 8000 is grandiose. That 30k support wall has been there forever and doesn't move. And it's not alone. It could well be we're looking at a bottom here.

I was right. 8000 support is broken, 18 days latter

Congratulations on a very good calculation.

The astute observer will have noticed that the last 12000 AUR of that wall at 8000 were sold just in the last hour (one trade, actually). This might lessen the perceived validity of above calculation (miner selling should be more steady). Let me assure you it's completely valid: the continual miner selling was buffered slightly above the wall @8000 (after 8400 was broken in a similar manner) and then the buffer was emptied in one go.

What amazes me is that there is no other selling. Only strong hands left?

I think some of the volume is being traded on the ISK/AUR exchange now.  There was a large increase in trading there in the last couple days and a 10% increase in trading price.

-Fuse

[rocanonz]

I guess only few players are active in this market (5-15). Most of them, long time holders. Only strong hands left around.
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The AUR exchange isx.is price increase was due to a @10000AUR single buy in a extremely low liquidity exchange, with a super thin order book. For me, Bittrex reflects better the present AUR market condition.