Remember remember the 5th of November
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September 25, 2013, 06:51:43 PM |
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I'm closing this project due to other priorities. Thanks everyone. It was fun!
Why remove .scr file? Some people started getting results and you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address colision" myth? It's not a myth, it's just facts. 2^256 is a really really really large number.
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BTC:1AiCRMxgf1ptVQwx6hDuKMu4f7F27QmJC2
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jackjack
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May Bitcoin be touched by his Noodly Appendage
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September 25, 2013, 06:53:48 PM |
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you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address collision" myth?
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F-QEod3ckcQ4Y%2FTkpKttrJB5I%2FAAAAAAAAGzo%2FB8PYotwScpM%2Fs400%2FWhat%2Bthe%2Bfuck%2Bam%2BI%2Breading.jpg&t=665&c=PnJNm8OXr-8I5w) I'm closing this project due to other priorities. Thanks everyone. It was fun!
Why remove .scr file? Some people started getting results and you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address colision" myth? It's not a myth, it's just facts. 2^256 is a really really really large number. 2^160
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Own address: 19QkqAza7BHFTuoz9N8UQkryP4E9jHo4N3 - Pywallet support: 1AQDfx22pKGgXnUZFL1e4UKos3QqvRzNh5 - Bitcointalk++ script support: 1Pxeccscj1ygseTdSV1qUqQCanp2B2NMM2 Pywallet: instructions. Encrypted wallet support, export/import keys/addresses, backup wallets, export/import CSV data from/into wallet, merge wallets, delete/import addresses and transactions, recover altcoins sent to bitcoin addresses, sign/verify messages and files with Bitcoin addresses, recover deleted wallets, etc.
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Kluge
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September 25, 2013, 07:13:44 PM |
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Assuming 500K addresses which either have funds or will have funds within next three months, 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000034211388289180104270598866779539% chance per check. Assuming average computer can do 250 optimized DSV-like checks per second, 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000085528470722950260676497166948848% chance per second. Assuming a "theft pool" is formed, and 500 of these computers averaging the above click/s, 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000042764235361475130338248583474424% chance per second. Assuming each theft pool is one botnet, and 20 botnets, exactly the same, exist in these theft pools, 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000085528470722950260676497166948848% chance per second. Per minute, 0.00000000000000000000000000000000051317082433770156405898300169309% Per hour, 0.000000000000000000000000000000030790249460262093843538980101585% Per day, 0.00000000000000000000000000000073896598704629025224493552243804% Per month (30D), 0.000000000000000000000000000022168979611388707567348065673141% Per year, 0.00000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% Assume worst-case scenario, DSV-like software can check 5000 addresses (10M of which are funded or will be funded within 6 months) per second, and 100 botnets of 50,000 computers each... Per day, 0.000000000000000000000000014779319740925805044898710448761% Per month, 0.00000000000000000000000044337959222777415134696131346283% Per year, 0.0000000000000000000000053944517054379188413880293137978% Per century, 0.00000000000000000000053944517054379188413880293137978% Are we done, now? ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) ETA: Worse-than-worst case scenario. NSA can check 1T addresses per second, 1T addresses are funded. Per century, 0.0000000000000021577806821751675365552117255191% Per billion centuries, 0.0000021577806821751675365552117255191%
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jackjack
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May Bitcoin be touched by his Noodly Appendage
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September 25, 2013, 07:15:31 PM |
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inb4 YOU SEE IT'S A MYTH IT'S NOT 0%!!
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Own address: 19QkqAza7BHFTuoz9N8UQkryP4E9jHo4N3 - Pywallet support: 1AQDfx22pKGgXnUZFL1e4UKos3QqvRzNh5 - Bitcointalk++ script support: 1Pxeccscj1ygseTdSV1qUqQCanp2B2NMM2 Pywallet: instructions. Encrypted wallet support, export/import keys/addresses, backup wallets, export/import CSV data from/into wallet, merge wallets, delete/import addresses and transactions, recover altcoins sent to bitcoin addresses, sign/verify messages and files with Bitcoin addresses, recover deleted wallets, etc.
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Kluge
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September 25, 2013, 07:26:46 PM |
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Are we done, now? ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) No, we are not because you are excluding one very important variable, called luck. I don't care about your calculations, if chance is not exactly 0% than "address collision is impossible" is a myth. Well, I suppose that's true. If you're feeling lucky, I'll bet you $20,000 (would be more, but I'm poor) that you won't roll a 1 on a 9,000,000,000,000,000,000-sided die. Technically, you have a 0.00000000000000000011111111111111111111111111111111% chance of winning... As far as significant numbers go, you would have 0% chance of winning. So, yes, it's possible, but any rational person would be more than willing to bet a ton of money on those odds. ETA: By bet, I mean I'll pay out $20k if I lose. If you lose, you don't have to pay anything out. This would be more in line with trusting an address not to be "stumbled upon" with DSV-like software.
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Remember remember the 5th of November
Legendary
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Activity: 1862
Merit: 1011
Reverse engineer from time to time
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 25, 2013, 08:34:39 PM |
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you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address collision" myth?
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F-QEod3ckcQ4Y%2FTkpKttrJB5I%2FAAAAAAAAGzo%2FB8PYotwScpM%2Fs400%2FWhat%2Bthe%2Bfuck%2Bam%2BI%2Breading.jpg&t=665&c=PnJNm8OXr-8I5w) I'm closing this project due to other priorities. Thanks everyone. It was fun!
Why remove .scr file? Some people started getting results and you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address colision" myth? It's not a myth, it's just facts. 2^256 is a really really really large number. 2^160 2^160 for RIPEMD-160, but 2^256(-secpk256k1 max number thing) for the possible private keys that hashes to an address within the 1^160 address space.
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BTC:1AiCRMxgf1ptVQwx6hDuKMu4f7F27QmJC2
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jackjack
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May Bitcoin be touched by his Noodly Appendage
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 25, 2013, 08:41:10 PM |
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you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address collision" myth?
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F-QEod3ckcQ4Y%2FTkpKttrJB5I%2FAAAAAAAAGzo%2FB8PYotwScpM%2Fs400%2FWhat%2Bthe%2Bfuck%2Bam%2BI%2Breading.jpg&t=665&c=PnJNm8OXr-8I5w) I'm closing this project due to other priorities. Thanks everyone. It was fun!
Why remove .scr file? Some people started getting results and you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address colision" myth? It's not a myth, it's just facts. 2^256 is a really really really large number. 2^160 2^160 for RIPEMD-160, but 2^256(-secpk256k1 max number thing) for the possible private keys that hashes to an address within the 1^160 address space. He was talking about address collision The odds of an address collision is 2^160
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Own address: 19QkqAza7BHFTuoz9N8UQkryP4E9jHo4N3 - Pywallet support: 1AQDfx22pKGgXnUZFL1e4UKos3QqvRzNh5 - Bitcointalk++ script support: 1Pxeccscj1ygseTdSV1qUqQCanp2B2NMM2 Pywallet: instructions. Encrypted wallet support, export/import keys/addresses, backup wallets, export/import CSV data from/into wallet, merge wallets, delete/import addresses and transactions, recover altcoins sent to bitcoin addresses, sign/verify messages and files with Bitcoin addresses, recover deleted wallets, etc.
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Remember remember the 5th of November
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1011
Reverse engineer from time to time
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 25, 2013, 08:43:19 PM |
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you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address collision" myth?
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F-QEod3ckcQ4Y%2FTkpKttrJB5I%2FAAAAAAAAGzo%2FB8PYotwScpM%2Fs400%2FWhat%2Bthe%2Bfuck%2Bam%2BI%2Breading.jpg&t=665&c=PnJNm8OXr-8I5w) I'm closing this project due to other priorities. Thanks everyone. It was fun!
Why remove .scr file? Some people started getting results and you shutdown the project to maintain the "0% chance for address colision" myth? It's not a myth, it's just facts. 2^256 is a really really really large number. 2^160 2^160 for RIPEMD-160, but 2^256(-secpk256k1 max number thing) for the possible private keys that hashes to an address within the 1^160 address space. He was talking about address collision The odds of an address collision is 2^160 That isn't odds. If you say 1:2^160 then that's odds, or some other calculation, but just saying 2^160 doesn't mean odds.
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BTC:1AiCRMxgf1ptVQwx6hDuKMu4f7F27QmJC2
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jackjack
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May Bitcoin be touched by his Noodly Appendage
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September 25, 2013, 08:49:04 PM |
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Hmm The guy said "0% chance" That means odds So I assumed odds
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Own address: 19QkqAza7BHFTuoz9N8UQkryP4E9jHo4N3 - Pywallet support: 1AQDfx22pKGgXnUZFL1e4UKos3QqvRzNh5 - Bitcointalk++ script support: 1Pxeccscj1ygseTdSV1qUqQCanp2B2NMM2 Pywallet: instructions. Encrypted wallet support, export/import keys/addresses, backup wallets, export/import CSV data from/into wallet, merge wallets, delete/import addresses and transactions, recover altcoins sent to bitcoin addresses, sign/verify messages and files with Bitcoin addresses, recover deleted wallets, etc.
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BurtW
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All paid signature campaigns should be banned.
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September 25, 2013, 10:04:29 PM |
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To be exact:
Assume N(t) = the number of Bitcoin addresses that have a positive balance at time t.
The probablity of colliding with one of these N(t) addresses by random chance is:
Probablitycollision(t) = N(t) / 2160
The odds of colliding with one of these N(t) addresses by random chance is:
Oddscollision(t) = N(t) : (2160 - N(t))
Since N is a function of time the probablity and odds are also a function of time.
Since N(t) is much less than 2160 these can both be approximated as the static constant values:
Probablitycollision is about 1 / 2160
Oddscollision is about 1 : 2160
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Our family was terrorized by Homeland Security. Read all about it here: http://www.jmwagner.com/ and http://www.burtw.com/ Any donations to help us recover from the $300,000 in legal fees and forced donations to the Federal Asset Forfeiture slush fund are greatly appreciated!
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Nancarrow
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September 26, 2013, 11:46:55 AM |
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Per billion centuries, 0.0000021577806821751675365552117255191%
[Lloyd in 'Dumb and Dumber']So you're telling me there's a chance...[/LiD&D] No, we are not because you are excluding one very important variable, called luck.
![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) Actually when somebody takes the time to do calculations of probability, that's pretty much the definition of 'taking account of luck'. If you say 1:2^160 then that's odds, or some other calculation, but just saying 2^160 doesn't mean odds. Sheesh. Fine. Reciprocal odds. Happy now?
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If I've said anything amusing and/or informative and you're feeling generous: 1GNJq39NYtf7cn2QFZZuP5vmC1mTs63rEW
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Kluge
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September 26, 2013, 12:08:35 PM |
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I like the idea of eliminating the "0% chance of collision" myth, though.
0.00000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year sounds better.
Though, if we changed it to one of "your" addresses being stumbled upon with needle-in-a-haystack-finders (that's the uhh... technical term), and we'll say you have 100 addresses... without opening calculator again, it'd be more like 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year.
It'd be a cool April 1st press release from the Bitcoin Foundation posting up some big red "ALERT!!!" blurb on how your Bitcoins aren't safe as there's a .000...% chance of it being stumbled upon.
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b!z
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September 26, 2013, 12:59:22 PM |
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I like the idea of eliminating the "0% chance of collision" myth, though.
0.00000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year sounds better.
Though, if we changed it to one of "your" addresses being stumbled upon with needle-in-a-haystack-finders (that's the uhh... technical term), and we'll say you have 100 addresses... without opening calculator again, it'd be more like 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year.
It'd be a cool April 1st press release from the Bitcoin Foundation posting up some big red "ALERT!!!" blurb on how your Bitcoins aren't safe as there's a .000...% chance of it being stumbled upon.
And then the price of BTC drops to $5 each.
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Kluge
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September 26, 2013, 01:03:40 PM |
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I like the idea of eliminating the "0% chance of collision" myth, though.
0.00000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year sounds better.
Though, if we changed it to one of "your" addresses being stumbled upon with needle-in-a-haystack-finders (that's the uhh... technical term), and we'll say you have 100 addresses... without opening calculator again, it'd be more like 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000026972258527189594206940146568988% chance per year.
It'd be a cool April 1st press release from the Bitcoin Foundation posting up some big red "ALERT!!!" blurb on how your Bitcoins aren't safe as there's a .000...% chance of it being stumbled upon.
And then the price of BTC drops to $5 each. Yeah, right. People aren't that stupid. The way you make it sound, we probably spend tens of billions on bottled water more expensive per gallon than gasoline.
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David Rabahy
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September 26, 2013, 02:09:21 PM |
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If you're going to probe then you might as well probe 1933phfhK3ZgFQNLGSDXvqCn32k2buXY8a since it has such at a high value.
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qwk
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September 26, 2013, 04:14:52 PM |
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Are we done, now? ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) No, we are not because you are excluding one very important variable, called luck. I don't care about your calculations, if chance is not exactly 0% than "address collision is impossible" is a myth. a myth is a sacred narrative explaining how the world and humankind assumed their present form,[2] although, in a very broad sense, the word can refer to any traditional story.[3] Bruce Lincoln defines myth as "ideology in narrative form".
You're probably right. Although an address collision is in fact impossible by any sensible standard, this statement is also "a traditional story" or bitcoin "ideology in narrative form". q.e.d. ■
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Yeah, well, I'm gonna go build my own blockchain. With blackjack and hookers! In fact forget the blockchain.
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flatfly (OP)
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760930
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September 27, 2013, 10:38:21 AM |
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As a special end-of-summer treat, the DSV download link is up again ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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nimda
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
September 27, 2013, 08:40:06 PM |
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As a special end-of-summer treat, the DSV download link is up again ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Nice! Do you need hosting or something? What was holding it back before?
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gaston909
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November 06, 2013, 10:51:49 AM |
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So how long do i need to run this until i get hold of satoshis stash?
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bitpop
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November 06, 2013, 01:06:09 PM |
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Where will it save keys it finds?
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