Bitcoin: Should you stay or should you go?

[BruceSwanson]

In Ken Burns' documentary The Dust Bowl someone pointed out that farmers (at least in the American midwest in the 1930s) had one business model: more. If prices are high, plant more to make more money. If prices are low, plant more to make any money. I'm not a miner myself, but I suspect that they are basically in the same economic trap (minus the chronic debt crop-farmers face). Maybe miners should be called farmers. But absent a worldwide-popular killer app, will there be a force adequate to overcome the selling done by miners trapped by the More business model? If not, I think the decline could be more or less orderly and ongoing for years: a Satoshi's the limit. But that should be OK for the system itself. The real threat might be high prices that get even higher.

Let's say a real killer app finally happens. With sky-high electricity costs and difficulty rates, governments might offer subsidized power in exchange for registering with the government, which would buy the bitcoins directly at a cost guaranteed to keep the number of non-registered (smaller-scale) miners to a stipulated minimum. Using smart contracts, those bitcoins could only be sent to addresses claimed by approved entities (corporations and companies of all sizes, registered Amazon merchants, ebay-sellers, etc.) Individuals would register as well if sales-tax incentives were offered for purchases that used approved addresses. Governments might justify all this as "making war on cash" -- part of its eternally failing War on Drugs. In any case, once a bitcoin is bought by the government, all transactions of that coin would be smart-contract approved.  

But of course there is a hitch: the market might -- probably would -- start falling at the first serious preparation of any such control. And not all governments would go along. Indeed, bad-boy governments like Russia, China, and N. Korea could do their evil part by simply subsidizing their own miners and pointedly refraining from any address-control at all. In any case, as the difficulty-rate fell along with the price, there would be less need for government-subsidized electricity, the effort at control would fail or stall. I see such a cyclical development as an integral part of bitcoin pricing, really just like any other currency feedback-control, such as international trade balances. As the price goes up, the next-generation of legislators would give "voluntary" control a try, they and the voters having forgotten the first lesson of say, twenty years earlier. (People do forget history, right? Eighty years after making marijuana possession a federal crime, it's still a federal crime.)

In short: High prices = high difficulty levels = attempts at government licensing of miners.

What all this adds up to is that there could be a "natural" price ceiling, being essentially a function of governments' natural tendency to seek control over as much as they can, particularly in the area of finance versus the fact that most people naturally know that governments can never be fully trusted, particularly in the area of finance. It might be true that if the above scenario began to play out, miners might begin closing up shop for the good of the system (perhaps obligated to so so through their own smart-contracts, which governments in turn might try to suppress) the way miners are careful not to allow any pool of miners to get a 51% advantage. Down would go the price, mining returns to the desktop using conventional quantities of electricity, thus making less feasible any control by governments. Back and forth it would go. Governments' attempts to control Bitcoin using miners could become just as unending as their Wars on Drugs.

In sum, a killer-app won't necessarily make pre China-bubble buyers rich. It might even make them poor again.

 

 

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[Armando]

Technologies thank Bitcoin gave us will stay forever 100%, as for bitcoin as currency - it's hard to say now, too controversial topic))

[Error404]

It should stay no matter what bitcoin price is higher or lower just be satisfied what bitcoin price because we dont control the changes price of bitcoin

[turvarya]

Yeah I see what you are saying.  I think the first step is to simplify the exchange process.  I had to read up on how to buy bitcoins and tbh it was a total pain to get some.  If you could just buy them direct from a bank account in stead of having to wait a week or pay a hefty transfer fee then that would go a long way to better adoption.  That will be the first barrier to cross.  The second will be transaction speed.  The average person does not want to wait so long for a transaction to go through.  They are used to credit cards and instant money.  Third there needs to be some advantage that bitcoins have.  Why would the average person use bitcoins in stead of dollars?  If I get ripped off using my CC then I just call them and have the transaction reversed.  BTC has no such thing.  It needs to have an advantage for the average person and not just us.

1. Making an account at an exchange is most times easier than making an account in a bank. The only difference is, that people already have a bank account for a long time.
2. Transactions are instant. Did you ever buy something with Bitcoin? I don't think so. For me it always takes less than 2 seconds.
3. Sure, reversing transactions seem like a good idea, until somebody reverses the transaction made to you. That happens all the time.

1. Ok true, there is one exception which is Kraken.  Making an account there was a total pita for me.
2. Ha!  no they are not.  Money transfers between point a and point b can take up to 6 confirmations, and you are not guaranteed a confirmation every 10 minutes.  Can you imagine waiting at starbucks for 20 minutes for your confirmations?  Most of the time the site only needs 2 confirmations from me, but I have seen up to six.  So in my experience transactions are not instant.  Credit cards are instant.  Bitcoin is not.
3. I have never had a transaction reversed on me, but I have done it twice to bad companies that tried to rip me off.  I am not saying that reversals are a good idea, but it is super easy to get scammed using bitcoins.  Until this changes it will be a barrier for wider adoption.

ad 2)
I am talking about paying with bitcoin, not money transfer. I guess, you have just used exchanges so far or put Bitcoin in your casino account.
To counter your hypothetical starbucks example: Some weeks ago, I was in a beerbar. I was pretty drunk, but I knew beforehand, that the guy was accepting Bitcoin and I asked him about it. He made a few clicks on his computer and showed me his screen. There was a QR-Code. I grabbed my phone, started Mycelium, pushed send, scanned the QR-Code, entered my pin and clicked confirm. He took a look at the screen and said something like "That's alright" and I left.
That is the real life case, with Bitcoin. So, please, unless you had a real bad experience, just accept, that, this is how it works and restrain from making up stories.

[BitRod]

Stay if you like new tech, go if you only want to make money.

[Xenoph0bia]

I somewhat agree. Just like the world wasn't ready for personal computers, the world isn't ready for Bitcoin just yet, but when it is, you'll regret not having a bunch of them.

Yes that is true the world was not ready for PC nor they were ready for the internet but it created an revolution across the globe and the same goes with bitcoin too.. The reason is people are not aware of bitcoin yet once they start knowing I believe they would start accepting it.

[hunnaryb]

It should stay no matter what bitcoin price is higher or lower just be satisfied what bitcoin price because we dont control the changes price of bitcoin

Yes that is true. If you have faith in bitcoin you should stay or should leave. If you want to grow your bitcoins in quick session then it is really difficult to that. But if you can hold your bitcoins for a longer period of time then it can prove to be profitable in the future. But still we don't have control over it so it is a tough decision to make whether to stay or to go.

[lockscreen]

find, collect and sell a little bit .. never bought as long as there are free coin 

[Dotakels]

It should stay no matter what bitcoin price is higher or lower just be satisfied what bitcoin price because we dont control the changes price of bitcoin

Yes that is true. If you have faith in bitcoin you should stay or should leave. If you want to grow your bitcoins in quick session then it is really difficult to that. But if you can hold your bitcoins for a longer period of time then it can prove to be profitable in the future. But still we don't have control over it so it is a tough decision to make whether to stay or to go.

You must stay to this forum for giving us an opportunity to earn bitcoin and also for satoshi that invented the  bitcoin. Whenever it price goes up or not.

[wearepoor]

It should stay no matter what bitcoin price is higher or lower just be satisfied what bitcoin price because we dont control the changes price of bitcoin

Yes that is true. If you have faith in bitcoin you should stay or should leave. If you want to grow your bitcoins in quick session then it is really difficult to that. But if you can hold your bitcoins for a longer period of time then it can prove to be profitable in the future. But still we don't have control over it so it is a tough decision to make whether to stay or to go.

You must stay to this forum for giving us an opportunity to earn bitcoin and also for satoshi that invented the  bitcoin. Whenever it price goes up or not.

I believe we should stay as coming to any decision at this point of time would not be fair. I believe the the value of bitcoin will raise in coming period of time as the adoption will go high. So I think we should be more patient with bitcoins as we are aware that "Patience Pays".

[Dotakels]

It should stay no matter what bitcoin price is higher or lower just be satisfied what bitcoin price because we dont control the changes price of bitcoin

Yes that is true. If you have faith in bitcoin you should stay or should leave. If you want to grow your bitcoins in quick session then it is really difficult to that. But if you can hold your bitcoins for a longer period of time then it can prove to be profitable in the future. But still we don't have control over it so it is a tough decision to make whether to stay or to go.

You must stay to this forum for giving us an opportunity to earn bitcoin and also for satoshi that invented the  bitcoin. Whenever it price goes up or not.

I believe we should stay as coming to any decision at this point of time would not be fair. I believe the the value of bitcoin will raise in coming period of time as the adoption will go high. So I think we should be more patient with bitcoins as we are aware that "Patience Pays".

Yeah thats the reason why we can't leave the bitcoin. We need money as easiest way to earn it like in signature campaign or making a website faucet.

[Xenoph0bia]

It should stay no matter what bitcoin price is higher or lower just be satisfied what bitcoin price because we dont control the changes price of bitcoin

Yes that is true. If you have faith in bitcoin you should stay or should leave. If you want to grow your bitcoins in quick session then it is really difficult to that. But if you can hold your bitcoins for a longer period of time then it can prove to be profitable in the future. But still we don't have control over it so it is a tough decision to make whether to stay or to go.

You must stay to this forum for giving us an opportunity to earn bitcoin and also for satoshi that invented the  bitcoin. Whenever it price goes up or not.

I believe we should stay as coming to any decision at this point of time would not be fair. I believe the the value of bitcoin will raise in coming period of time as the adoption will go high. So I think we should be more patient with bitcoins as we are aware that "Patience Pays".

Yeah thats the reason why we can't leave the bitcoin. We need money as easiest way to earn it like in signature campaign or making a website faucet.

We simply cannot afford to leave bitcoin at a moment as the great future is awaiting for us So It would be stupid decision to make to leave bitcoin and there are many ways of growing your bitcoin so the best thing at present is hold the bitcoin in your wallet and keep it safe for the future.

[hunnaryb]

It should stay no matter what bitcoin price is higher or lower just be satisfied what bitcoin price because we dont control the changes price of bitcoin

Yes that is true. If you have faith in bitcoin you should stay or should leave. If you want to grow your bitcoins in quick session then it is really difficult to that. But if you can hold your bitcoins for a longer period of time then it can prove to be profitable in the future. But still we don't have control over it so it is a tough decision to make whether to stay or to go.

You must stay to this forum for giving us an opportunity to earn bitcoin and also for satoshi that invented the  bitcoin. Whenever it price goes up or not.

I believe we should stay as coming to any decision at this point of time would not be fair. I believe the the value of bitcoin will raise in coming period of time as the adoption will go high. So I think we should be more patient with bitcoins as we are aware that "Patience Pays".

Yeah thats the reason why we can't leave the bitcoin. We need money as easiest way to earn it like in signature campaign or making a website faucet.

We simply cannot afford to leave bitcoin at a moment as the great future is awaiting for us So It would be stupid decision to make to leave bitcoin and there are many ways of growing your bitcoin so the best thing at present is hold the bitcoin in your wallet and keep it safe for the future.

How can you be so sure regarding bitcoin that it has a great future? We simply don't know what bitcoin have us for the future it can be a vice-versa. It will grow like anything or else it will diminish so It is really difficult to make any judgement at present regarding the future of bitcoin.

[Elwar]

Without a defining killer app, I am confident that Bitcoin will, in fits and starts, inevitably return to its 2009 levels. It would be pointless to guess how long that process will take; or when that killer app will appear although I am also confident it will appear at some entirely unpredictable point.

I'm easily old enough to remember the very early days of personal computers. I remember a story from the Wall Street Journal in which the reporter interviewed a small-business owner (I think an auto-repair shop) who had bought an Apple II. The reporter asked the man what he thought of his purchase. The man stared glumly at the Apple for a moment and then sourly commented: "The damn thing just sits there."

Exactly. The world was just never going to buy into a command-prompt environment in a really big way. But the Mac came along and then the world began to change. ("Be like the Mac!" Bill Gates commanded his troops developing Windows.) And so it will be with Bitcoin. The world will never buy into it until an environment comes along that makes it easier, safer, and a lot more fun to use. Until then, the price will suffer periodic whale-dumps and then sort of bounce, spurt, and finally just roll along long enough for people to start talking (again) about "Bitcoin's recent price stability." And then yet another whale-dump will splash the water and the retroactively obvious cycle will begin again.

If you decide to go, then you could miss out on the killer app that will send Bitcoin to the moon and beyond. If you decide to stay, then you could watch the value of your stash just ebb away before your eyes. And nobody has a clue as to which it will be.

As for me, for now I'm going to stay. But I've got Coinbase and can go in a second. That could happen at any time too.

Welcome to Bitcoin!

[jt byte]

Bitcoins potential is extreme when you really start looking at what it could do
BitCoin. Fiat 2.0.New and improved. Still in beta

[Dotakels]

It should stay no matter what bitcoin price is higher or lower just be satisfied what bitcoin price because we dont control the changes price of bitcoin

Yes that is true. If you have faith in bitcoin you should stay or should leave. If you want to grow your bitcoins in quick session then it is really difficult to that. But if you can hold your bitcoins for a longer period of time then it can prove to be profitable in the future. But still we don't have control over it so it is a tough decision to make whether to stay or to go.

You must stay to this forum for giving us an opportunity to earn bitcoin and also for satoshi that invented the  bitcoin. Whenever it price goes up or not.

I believe we should stay as coming to any decision at this point of time would not be fair. I believe the the value of bitcoin will raise in coming period of time as the adoption will go high. So I think we should be more patient with bitcoins as we are aware that "Patience Pays".

Yeah thats the reason why we can't leave the bitcoin. We need money as easiest way to earn it like in signature campaign or making a website faucet.

We simply cannot afford to leave bitcoin at a moment as the great future is awaiting for us So It would be stupid decision to make to leave bitcoin and there are many ways of growing your bitcoin so the best thing at present is hold the bitcoin in your wallet and keep it safe for the future.

How can you be so sure regarding bitcoin that it has a great future? We simply don't know what bitcoin have us for the future it can be a vice-versa. It will grow like anything or else it will diminish so It is really difficult to make any judgement at present regarding the future of bitcoin.

but we all know that we have a new age or era, This Age will the age of the future, and we all know that in the future our technology will be great and make the life easier. And thats why we sure about the future of bitcoin, it will the future currency.

[Amph]

It should stay no matter what bitcoin price is higher or lower just be satisfied what bitcoin price because we dont control the changes price of bitcoin

Yes that is true. If you have faith in bitcoin you should stay or should leave. If you want to grow your bitcoins in quick session then it is really difficult to that. But if you can hold your bitcoins for a longer period of time then it can prove to be profitable in the future. But still we don't have control over it so it is a tough decision to make whether to stay or to go.

You must stay to this forum for giving us an opportunity to earn bitcoin and also for satoshi that invented the  bitcoin. Whenever it price goes up or not.

I believe we should stay as coming to any decision at this point of time would not be fair. I believe the the value of bitcoin will raise in coming period of time as the adoption will go high. So I think we should be more patient with bitcoins as we are aware that "Patience Pays".

Yeah thats the reason why we can't leave the bitcoin. We need money as easiest way to earn it like in signature campaign or making a website faucet.

We simply cannot afford to leave bitcoin at a moment as the great future is awaiting for us So It would be stupid decision to make to leave bitcoin and there are many ways of growing your bitcoin so the best thing at present is hold the bitcoin in your wallet and keep it safe for the future.

How can you be so sure regarding bitcoin that it has a great future? We simply don't know what bitcoin have us for the future it can be a vice-versa. It will grow like anything or else it will diminish so It is really difficult to make any judgement at present regarding the future of bitcoin.

no matter what will be its future, we should stay just to see what it will be, it's a gamble at this point, that will favor those who are strong enough to hold until the end, remember that the chance of rising is still higher, than the chance of falling, at least by a mathematical point of view

[uvs]

It will be bitcoin or a competing altcoin. It's not the name that matters, it's the technology.

[Herbert2020]

i think bitcoin price is going to continue to have this downward trend for much longer now. it is slowly going down but it is not gonna reach the 2009 state again.
i think it is going to stop eventually and start going up again after this phase is completed. and we are gonna have another bubble, not as big as before but still a bubble.

It's easy to say the price will continue to go down as it has been doing so for quite a while now. Nothing new here. Stop waiting for bubbles, they always pop.

I prefer a stable growth spreaded over several years instead of 1 or 2 bubbles. Have patience.

i am one of the few that would wish the price would become more stable. because i am not in bitcoin to get rich and want to see it become stable so that we can consider it as any other currency.
but bubbles at this stage are inevitable, it is going to be bubbles in the future. the size and time of those bubbles are unknown.

[Pursuer]

It will be bitcoin or a competing altcoin. It's not the name that matters, it's the technology.

no altcoin has the potential nor the support nor the technology to compete with bitcoin. I am not saying that there never going to be anything but there is nothing right now.