Already delays in BFL shipment plans?

[Starlightbreaker]

It's really pretty simple to figure this out IMO.

- BFL wanted to fly people to their plant in late october/early november to see their prototypes.
- Their prototype batch of chips didn't work, but they still wanted to show off pics, so they did.
- They ordered up a new batch of chips, this time enough to do a full production run, with fixes in place to correct the issues from the first prototype.
- They delayed the fly-people-to-their-plant thing until they get the new batch of fixed chips in.
- As they are on a second revision of the chip, in all likelihood, it won't have problems.  They will time it so that the two peeps flying in will be able to see a working product running on 2nd-revision chips.  They will also begin assembly that week, assembling enough units to ship out the first batch (maybe a hundred units or something?).

To me, all the evidence points to them fully expecting working prototypes to be in-hand at the end of October, but then something unexpected came up.  I believe that unexpected thing was a bad run of chips, and I believe that's why the only thing they are waiting on for assembly is the new batch of chips.

maybe it's hard to admit they fucked up somewhere down the production pipeline.

[Bogart]

It's really pretty simple to figure this out IMO.

- BFL wanted to fly people to their plant in late october/early november to see their prototypes.
- Their prototype batch of chips didn't work, but they still wanted to show off pics, so they did.
- They ordered up a new batch of chips, this time enough to do a full production run, with fixes in place to correct the issues from the first prototype.
- They delayed the fly-people-to-their-plant thing until they get the new batch of fixed chips in.
- As they are on a second revision of the chip, in all likelihood, it won't have problems.  They will time it so that the two peeps flying in will be able to see a working product running on 2nd-revision chips.  They will also begin assembly that week, assembling enough units to ship out the first batch (maybe a hundred units or something?).

To me, all the evidence points to them fully expecting working prototypes to be in-hand at the end of October, but then something unexpected came up.  I believe that unexpected thing was a bad run of chips, and I believe that's why the only thing they are waiting on for assembly is the new batch of chips.

maybe it's hard to admit they fucked up somewhere down the production pipeline.

http://www.admittingfailure.com/

I think it's been a few weeks now since they were talking up their "bullet run" of chips.  I guess even at Bullet Speed these things still take a while.

[PuertoLibre]

@ Bogart

I am not totally sure, but their first mention of the bullet run may have been are far back as October 20ish. Then a [very] vague statement of "refraction" issues with their run. As well as a mention of some kind of error being acceptable and was factored into their release timeline.

[creativex]

That sounds about right. I think Josh was still referring to "padding" regularly around that time.

[MrTeal]

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/showthread.php/251-More-Jalapeno-Pictures-amp-Shipping-Update

On the 29th of Oct BFL said 25 days until they get the chips, so that would be this Friday.

[creativex]

Did BFL offer some kind of a shipping estimate once chips are received? I don't recall seeing one, but I haven't been monitoring their releases as closely as I was prior to making a decision on who to order from.

[MrTeal]

Did BFL offer some kind of a shipping estimate once chips are received? I don't recall seeing one, but I haven't been monitoring their releases as closely as I was prior to making a decision on who to order from.

Did you not read the post I linked?

[creativex]

No I did not, because you summarized part of it for me.

...final assembly and shipping a few days after that.

I did read that around the time it was posted. I distinctly remember the 4th or 5th week of November comment. Thanks for hunting down the link, I'm just not paying the attention I once did to BFL's releases, partly because they're not credible and partly because I made other arrangements.

[LiteBit]

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?iso=20121126T10&p0=405&fg1=ea0606&fg2=808080&msg=BFL+%7C+ASIC+-+FIRST+SHIPMENT
Less than a week!  mumbles under his breath "yeah right"

[creativex]

Fat chance. It should say -19 days anyway since they sold the bulk of their orders based upon an October(2012:) product release schedule.

[LiteBit]

Fat chance. It should say -19 days anyway since they sold the bulk of their orders based upon an October(2012:) product release schedule.

This will continue to the negative if the date comes and goes.  The countdown was set up from the date of the last known proclaimation from BFL as to the shipping of ASIC units.

Even this nugget from BFL_Josh "If there is work to be done on T-Day, we will be doing it. No turkey shall stand in the way of ASIC progress, this I promise you."

[PuertoLibre]

Even this nugget from BFL_Josh "If there is work to be done on T-Day, we will be doing it. No turkey shall stand in the way of ASIC progress, this I promise you."

That is no longer true.

Jody has just mentioned the staff will stop working for two days surrounding T-Day.

Check out the Blogs.....

Oh, and the 1/3 plan is history in her latest blog post. Now it doesn't matter when you placed your order....but when you paid it.

[LiteBit]

just read that. thx

[fcmatt]

Even this nugget from BFL_Josh "If there is work to be done on T-Day, we will be doing it. No turkey shall stand in the way of ASIC progress, this I promise you."

That is no longer true.

Jody has just mentioned the staff will stop working for two days surrounding T-Day.

Check out the Blogs.....

Oh, and the 1/3 plan is history in her latest blog post. Now it doesn't matter when you placed your order....but when you paid it.

Is there any facts to go on in this discussion besides they seem to be making an asic product and have peoples money?

[PuertoLibre]

Even this nugget from BFL_Josh "If there is work to be done on T-Day, we will be doing it. No turkey shall stand in the way of ASIC progress, this I promise you."

That is no longer true.

Jody has just mentioned the staff will stop working for two days surrounding T-Day.

Check out the Blogs.....

Oh, and the 1/3 plan is history in her latest blog post. Now it doesn't matter when you placed your order....but when you paid it.

Is there any facts to go on in this discussion besides they seem to be making an asic product and have peoples money?

One BFL representative has further stated that the pre-orders should finish shipping by the end of January [clause: if there are no "snags"]. But no start date is given. (It is assumed it will be the planned "5th week of November")

Further, an update from Jody stated that they are still "waiting" on parts.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/entry.php/48-Batches-Really-We-Don-t-Have-Them

[creativex]

How...confusing. There are no batches and then there's this gem.

BFL_Josh - 11-19-2012 07:57 PM
I think there was a communication breakdown earlier between CS and myself. There is a first shipment which is the 1/3 plan, which you could call the 1st batch. After that, it's a FIFO method. How many are in the first shipment (aka the 1st batch) we don't know yet.

[Syke]

We don't have batches.

First batch was quoted to be 20,000 ASICs. Sounds like it's going to take quite a while to turn those all into products. Batch #1 is going to last for months.

[creativex]

That's probably why there are no batches now. Otherwise some of BFL's jumbo batch 1 customers could receive products after batch 2 bASIC or Avalon customers receive their products.

[Unacceptable]

We don't have batches.

First batch was quoted to be 20,000 ASICs. Sounds like it's going to take quite a while to turn those all into products. Batch #1 is going to last for months.

I think what your referring to is the ASIC CHIPS only,not the 1st batch of finished product being shipped.I could be wrong 

[creativex]

I thought they were the same thing until a couple hours ago. Anyway since presumably(hopefully) no BFL SC products will ship without at least one ASIC chip, I hardly see how the distinction is necessary. Like their convoluted 1/3 shipping policy it seems to be needlessly complex.