Already delays in BFL shipment plans?

[SLok]

Orders canceled. Not dealing with this shit (BFL) anymore.

Well, at least you stood your ground and gave them every opportunity to come through....

Looks like the first (safe) wave of refunds have begun or are ongoing.

The second wave of refunds is where the risk is at (IMO).

Seems the risk is already here: https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/441-refund-not-getting-processed.html

Both persons asking for a refund there provided non existing order numbers?

[beekeeper]

Until ASICs start shipping in volume, that batch of chips is like a pile of plutonium, just waiting for someone to make off with them and start hashing with them.

With 20k of those chips, even if they only perform at half their advertised speed, one could easily control > 50% of the network hashing power.

What about if they perform at 50MHz ?

[LiteBit]

I'll just put this here:
https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=125.0

bASICally it's a mid-Jan launch... so far

[crazyates]

I'll just put this here:
https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=125.0

bASICally it's a mid-Jan launch... so far

ISWYDT

[repentance]

Both persons asking for a refund there provided non existing order numbers?

Let's face it, saying "search your emails for the BTC address" sounds spectacularly dodgy.  BFL is right not to cancel orders unless the person requesting the cancellation can prove they placed the order.  Otherwise, anyone could cancel the orders of other people in the hope of reducing the size of the order queue - either for shit and giggles or to get their own order sooner.  I expect that all the ASIC companies are going to get hit by refund scammers.

[MooC Tals]

https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=125.0

The other guy is giving refunds too.... According to the post I think all these companies were using the same designing company and further indicates (to me at least) that they're all coordinating their release dates to MAXimize their profits.

[beekeeper]

https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=125.0

The other guy is giving refunds too.... According to the post I think all these companies were using the same designing company and further indicates (to me at least) that they're all coordinating their release dates to MAXimize their profits.

Nope, BTCfpga have issues with their PCB board (or at least thats what they say). They tried to design it in USA.
BFL have issues with their chip, designed in France (or at least that I understood) and produced in a secret location in Asia.

[abeaulieu]

https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=125.0

The other guy is giving refunds too.... According to the post I think all these companies were using the same designing company and further indicates (to me at least) that they're all coordinating their release dates to MAXimize their profits.

Nope, BTCfpga have issues with their PCB board (or at least thats what they say). They tried to design it in USA.
BFL have issues with their chip, designed in France (or at least that I understood) and produced in a secret location in Asia.

Very strange how bASIC is having such difficulty with getting a PCB design. Seems to be the easier piece of the puzzle. Hell, I could do that, I'm just here for the ASICs!

Interesting note about the BFL ASIC being designed in France, didn't see that posted anywhere.

[Merrick]

I'll just put this here:
https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=125.0

bASICally it's a mid-Jan launch... so far

It would seem that BFL is still hoping to ship first, so you've got that going for you...

[abeaulieu]

Well Josh,

With the bASIC competition laying down this lengthy delay:
https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=125.0
And the supposedly ignored refunds, seeming to be frauds:
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/441-refund-not-getting-processed.html
BFL isn't looking too bad. It would probably be a good time to lay on us another other news (good or terrible) that might have been squirreled away.

[Coinoisseur]

Having personally worked on a project where our final product was an ASIC I can tell you that your chances of having a working first piece are almost zero.

You get everything working in Verilog on your FPGA development board and send the Verilog files to the fab.  They do the layout, make the masks, produce the first lot, do testing, ship you the first parts.  You get the parts and damn, guess what you forgot something dumb.  So it's back to the fab with rev 2 of the Verilog files.

That's why the smart kids do hybrid structured ASICs with as many hard macros as possible for the first run.  A couple grad students, a little money, some soldering parties, and you can have your personal mini-hashmonster in less than three months.

Obviously, this won't fly for a commercial production venture because you can only cram so much on taxi runs, but not even having this level of development is a bad sign for BFL.

Surprised none of these contenders went for something like http://www.easic.com/high-speed-transceivers-low-cost-power-fpga-nre-asic-45nm-easic-nextreme-2/easic-nextreme-2-devices-packages/

Considering the market size it makes a lot more sense than going straight to a pure custom ASIC working directly with a foundry, i.e. $$$$$$.

Also I'm going to predict BFL eventually announces delays into January, their latest explanations + revised timeline appear irrationally optimistic.

[Bogart]

I'm going to predict BFL eventually announces delays into January, their latest explanations + revised timeline appear irrationally optimistic.

What's irrational is their explanation for the delay.  "Oh, there's no flaw in the chips, but we're scrapping the lot of them anyway to make new ones with some added clock buffers."  How much sense does that make?

[Coinoisseur]

Bankruptcy isn't the "ha-ha" you might think it is. I'm no lawyer, but AFAIK since BFL is an incorporated entity, bankruptcy would fall only on the business. Any salaries to employees/owners, big bonuses for CEO/CTO/CFO/etc. to the tune of whatever they want, and other "operating expenses" reducing their operating capital would be untouched, and by filing Chapter 7, they are not required to repay the full debt owed (meaning everyone gets screwed to a greater or lesser extent). Additionally if they really have VC funding as they said they did, usually a company draws up contracts specifically stating that those folks get "first dibs" on asset liquidation, further reducing what customers would receive.

I'm just sayin'

Incorrect.  The fact that the founder/CEO/GM/whatever-he-is has a history of international wire fraud and has changed the definition of his role in the company several times gives the "corporation" the appearance of an entity created solely to obscure his involvement.  Bankruptcy will only make piercing the corporate veil easier.  All of the directors and/or officers with active involvement in managing the company will most likely have to declare personal bankruptcy to achieve the ends you describe.

Keep in mind it usually takes an interested creditor's lawyers to bring a lot of this stuff up and then look at bitcoin investors track record on hiring lawyers and pursuing shady characters. Odds look to be in the shady characters favor, atm.

I'm going to predict BFL eventually announces delays into January, their latest explanations + revised timeline appear irrationally optimistic.

What's irrational is their explanation for the delay.  "Oh, there's no flaw in the chips, but we're scrapping the lot of them anyway to make new ones with some added clock buffers."  How much sense does that make?

Even their previous reasoning was implausible, 2 week turn around on a chip problem. It appears like their "correction" seeks to alleviate that portion of the wtf but then creates it's own implausibility 'We had working chips but even though people are clamoring for product we decided we could make them even better if we delay'.

[repentance]

Even their previous reasoning was implausible, 2 week turn around on a chip problem. It appears like their "correction" seeks to alleviate that portion of the wtf but then creates it's own implausibility 'We had working chips but even though people are clamoring for product we decided we could make them even better if we delay'.

"And our competitors are going to be late shipping too, so that excuses our delays".

I'm curious about whether they're going to work through Christmas and New Year if the chips arrive mid-December.

Josh is saying that the chips will be in hand in "a matter of days" once they're completed.  I hope he's not under-estimating the time which packaging, shipping and customs clearance will take.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Even their previous reasoning was implausible, 2 week turn around on a chip problem. It appears like their "correction" seeks to alleviate that portion of the wtf but then creates it's own implausibility 'We had working chips but even though people are clamoring for product we decided we could make them even better if we delay'.

"And our competitors are going to be late shipping too, so that excuses our delays".

I'm curious about whether they're going to work through Christmas and New Year if the chips arrive mid-December.

Josh is saying that the chips will be in hand in "a matter of days" once they're completed.  I hope he's not under-estimating the time which packaging, shipping and customs clearance will take.

<humor only>

I believe Christmas and New Year is also a Minecraft holiday.

[bcpokey]

Avalon must be doing a merry jig today.

[DoomDumas]

If a lot of BFL pre-order are canceled, it could be profitable for those who have not, will not cancel.. their rank in the list may go up.
As of today, no ones delivered, so it still unknown who will ship first, and if some are not to ship anything.

Those who invested just what they can afford to lose, are those who are not panicing..

Exciting days, halving, asic tought..

Popcorn on the desk, im watching the show..

[TheBible]

Josh just posted an update on the BFL forums.  It's gonna be another couple of weeks if all goes well.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/437-asic-update-26-november-2012-a.html#post6239

I'm kind of horrified that Josh only just found out about the reason for the delay.  A flaw in the chip is something BFL should have been informed of as soon as the problem was detected.

Called it.

Thanks for finally giving us the reason behind the delay Josh.

100,000 chips is 7.5*100,000 = 750TH/s.  Unless there's a significant price increase (let's all hope), then that takes just about all incentive out of buying ASICs once those chips are eaten up.  Payback would be around a year at that point... fairly risky in the world of Bitcoin.

You guys do this exact same dance with every single scammer, and you never see it coming somehow.

Here's a hint, they all give you these bullshit excuses.  Over and over again, and you all throw your money at them and thank them, then act completely stunned when they bolt with it.

Here's a test of BFL's legitimacy.  That ASIC you're blowing money on, have you even seen a prototype?  Any evidence that it would even work if it did ship?  Any evidence that the design behind it is sound?  Anything at all?

It is very obvious they are actually working on the project.  They aren't outright scammers.  They gave optimistic estimates for when they could ship, with the stipulation that that ship date may be pushed back in the event that something goes wrong.  Something went wrong.  It isn't any more complicated than that.

If they were going to take everyone's money and run, it would have been done a long time ago.  They are very likely losing money by having to give out refunds vs the number of new orders they might be taking in.

I see we're still in the "defend the scammers" phase of this particular scam.

I have no dog in this fight at all, just sort of watching it all go down from afar.  That being said, why can't BFL be more open with everything they are doing here?

The same reason as always, they're running a scam, and they can't let too much out at one time, or people here (might) wise up to it.

I doubt that level of caution is necessary.  People are already giving them money and they don't even have a prototype yet.  People are talking about weeks until shipment, when the chips haven't even been tested.  They haven't even been made.

If you see any ASICs from this company, it'll be years from now.

Josh just posted an update on the BFL forums.  It's gonna be another couple of weeks if all goes well.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/437-asic-update-26-november-2012-a.html#post6239

I'm kind of horrified that Josh only just found out about the reason for the delay.  A flaw in the chip is something BFL should have been informed of as soon as the problem was detected.

Called it.

Thanks for finally giving us the reason behind the delay Josh.

100,000 chips is 7.5*100,000 = 750TH/s.  Unless there's a significant price increase (let's all hope), then that takes just about all incentive out of buying ASICs once those chips are eaten up.  Payback would be around a year at that point... fairly risky in the world of Bitcoin.

You guys do this exact same dance with every single scammer, and you never see it coming somehow.

Here's a hint, they all give you these bullshit excuses.  Over and over again, and you all throw your money at them and thank them, then act completely stunned when they bolt with it.

Here's a test of BFL's legitimacy.  That ASIC you're blowing money on, have you even seen a prototype?  Any evidence that it would even work if it did ship?  Any evidence that the design behind it is sound?  Anything at all?

BFL's legitimacy is dead simple to assert: they managed to be greatly successful and profitable inventing, making, and selling thousands of FPGA Singles. I have many of them in my very own hands.

And if you have a profitable business, the natural human reaction, even for greedy people (the type who may want to defraud), is to simply expand the business, not to do something riskier by defrauding your customers.

Pirate paid out for awhile, too.

Not that it really matters.  Even if they are for real, it just means that they are displaying the professionalism and competence I've come to expect from Bitcoin Businessmen.  This whole debacle has been an amateurish joke.  They shouldn't have even sold pre-orders if they didn't even have a successful test that guaranteed that they'd actually have a product to sell.  Even their PR has been a joke with Josh doing some Jekyll/Hyde shit to insult his own wronged customers.

[TheBible]

If Nasser is telling the truth, wouldn't it mean that either a) the chips haven't even been produced yet or b) the bullet run for the chips happened but they're going to scrap all the chips from that run and another bullet run (which will happen fuck knows when) will be needed to produce the chips with the new design?

According to Josh back on the 3rd, they had issues caused by refraction and that's why the chips were delayed with estimated delivery on the 23rd. I can't imagine how they wouldn't know that redesigning the clock buffers would cause a delay back when Josh posted this if it wasn't a new issue.

As for why the delay, if the November issue of Bitcoin Magazine would come out it would make a lot more sense.  Bottom line is, our chips are the most advanced chips by a wide, wide, margin compared to any other offering.  Because of that, the design has taken longer than expected.  Our process node also blows away any of the toy offerings from the other vendors and we had to deal with some unexpected refraction issues that needed to be addressed.

So, since we are left with differing statements from BFL I'll read between the lines.


The first run/prototypes underperformed.  Makes sense if the official word is that "there was no flaw," but there was a revision.

I'll make this simple.

Notice how you have seen absolutely no evidence of a product at all. What is the simplest explanation here?  Hell, how many times have you seen this situation here before? 

How many times are you people going to fall for this scam before you finally wise up?

[repentance]

If a lot of BFL pre-order are canceled, it could be profitable for those who have not, will not cancel.. their rank in the list may go up.

Only marginally more profitable, though, as the gap between shipping the first and second batches will be much smaller.  A lot of people made their (overly optimistic) projections based on the assumption that ASICs would ship before the block reward halving, that BFL would ship well in advance of other ASIC vendors and that there'd be a substantial gap between the first batch of shipments and subsequent batches.