CRITICISMS OF / QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUNDEarlier today I received a PM expressing some ciriticism of (and asking some questions about) this fund.
I do NOT respond in depth, by PM, to such messages - I prefer all such discussion to be public. This is for two reasons:
1. By answering in public I avoid having to address the same issue repeatedly in PM to multiple individuals.
2. I have nothing to hide - so why would I want it done in private? If I'm wrong about something I've no problem whatsoever with it being pointed out and me acting to resolve whatever the issue is.
I therefore asked whether the person PMing me would be willing for me to respond in public to their comments but without revealing their identity (so as not to embarass them). They were fine with that. I have no problem at all with someone PMing me questions/criticism and me responding to it in public without revealing their identity. In many ways it's actually a hood way to do things - as by not revealing their identity I am forced to address the issues they raise rather than attack the questioner. I will not reveal the identity of anyone who wants to raise issues in this way - nor will I confirm or deny whether such posts are any specific person unless someone is accused of being the PMer, denies it in public AND asks me to confirm that it wasn't them (when I'll honestly say whether or not it was them).
The below quotes are from the PM without any modification from me. I have excluded some parts of the PM which did not deal with LTC-ATF and hence would not be of relevance if addressed in this thread.
Hopefully this at least provides some light entertainment for readers.
FABRICATING NAV/UYour recent report stated actual profit is down by 4.82%. Yet you fabricated an 8.57% increase in NAV from 61.83 to to 67.13. That makes no sense.
This refers to the values in the spreadsheet in the OP of this thread - not to the values given in the weekly reports. The PMer simply hasn't read (or hasn't understood) the explanatory notes below the spreadsheet there.
The period in question is the one ending 10th March 2013 (the week LTC massively rose from .003 to .00725.
Column 4 is the NAV/U of the fund at the end of the week before deduction of any management fee. This is the actual NAV/U (before fee) the fund had - and is what management fee is based on. There's a subtle clue this is the actual NAV/U in the use of the word "ACTUAL" above the column.
Column 8 is the one that our mysterious friend takes great exception to. Despite us having made a loss for the week it shows a very significant increase from the value at the start of the week. How can this be so?
Well, column 8 is a crude esitmate of what NAV/U
would have been had the exchange-rate not changed. As the exchange-rate DID change (very much so) this is a lot different to the actual result at the end of the week. Do note, first off, that this value is NOT used when calculated management fee. It is NOT used when calculating buy-back price. It is NOT used as the starting point for the next week (that is, of course, the actual NAV/U after deduction of management fee). Nowhere is it claimed that this IS the actual NAV/U nor is it used anywhere AS the actual NAV/U.
Why is this value reported at all? Well there's two reasons why it's reported:
1. The actual results in any week (profit or loss) depend upon two factors :
a) How I do in trading,
b) How the LTC/BTC exchange-rate moves - if LTC increases then our NAV/U will drop and if LTC decreases vs BTC then our NAV/U will increase.
This column gives an estimate of what my trading performance was when the impact of exchange-rate movement was discounted. In the week in question I made a killing trading - but that was still not quite enough to compensate for the loss in NAV/U caused by LTC's steep rise vs BTC. Hence the massive discrepancy between the actual NAV/U and this number. If you look at weeks where LTC fell vs BTC you'll see the opposite - that this column is lower than the actual growth for the week.
2. This column is used to calculate the maxium rate we could safely offer on bonds based on past performance. The capital raised by bonds and the liability incurred in respect of them cancel one another out in terms of exposure to exchange-rate variations. Because of that, when calculating what rate we can safely offer, we have to look at profits recalculated to at least approximate removal of exchange-rate variation. Imagine a situation where every week I made a loss trading but LTC fell steeply vs BTC. In that scenario clearly I shouldn't be selling bonds at all - as trading isn't making a profit - yet the actual NAV/U of the fund would rise giving the illusion that the bonds were doing well for us.
A comparison which may help understand this is to think of Satoshi Dice. If you look at graphs of its performance you'll see two lines - a red one (showing expected profit based on the odds) and a black line showing actual profits. When assessing the value of the share you SHOULD be looking at the red line (exception being if you believe any variance is down to double-spend attacks). Our actual NAV/U is the black line - it's what we actually got. Column 8 is the red line - which IS what matters when looking at the rate for bonds: as capital raised from bonds is NOT subject to the difference between the red and black lines caused by exchange-rate movement.
This was all explained anyway in the notes below the spreadsheet.
A PONZI?Another issue is that at 67, LTC-ATF has enjoyed ponzi-like returns of 600% over the last 6 months. Congratulations, you are beating pirate at his own game.
Not sure what to say to this other than thanks - though of course the 67 figure is NOT the actual NAV/U (if LTC falls much further it probably will be).
If it would make investors more comfortable I am, of course, fine with taking a one-time bonus of say 30-40 LTC per share so they don't have to share the stigma of having made ponzi-like returns. And if you want it to be really scary you should look at the returns that have been made if the units were to be valued in BTC or USD.
More seriously, if LTC-ATF is a ponzi then it has to be the first one that rarely sells any new units and constantly has a bidwall up at a few % under the stated value of the shares.
If anyone has serious concerns that the claimed funds belonging to LTC-ATF don't exist then it's actually pretty easy for me to prove otherwise. Most of the time 80%+ of the assets managed by the fund are in cash. I can, at any time, show all of that cash by placing pre-agreed bids on the various sites I trade on (it's a bit of a pain on Bitfunder - as have to cancel my other bids to do it).
Additionally, ANYONE can ask the operators of exchanges where I trade to conform ANY statement I make about our assets or trades. I've stated it before - and repeat it again. If I say I have X BTC on Bitfunder/BTC.CO/LTC-Global then Ukyo/burnside have my permission to confirm that without any further reference to me. If I say I have assets worth Y BTC/LTC on sites the same applies. This blanket permission only extends to confirming the truth of statements I've made - not to revealing further information that I haven't disclosed.
I'm fine with taking ANY reasonable action to confirm that the fund holds the assets (with the value) that I claim in my reports. However any requests for such verification by ME MUST be made in public and then the fact that I was correct confirmed afterwards (you can ask exchange operators to confirm things privately without involving me - so I don't care about that). I will NOT reveal details of securities held but, if someone seriously makes such a request, will see if I can find a way to prove it without doing so (ideally get the exchange operator to confirm it in public).
Logically there's actually no need for me to prove all assets exist anyway. If I can show 80% + exist as cash and another 5% exist as shares in assets we run pass-throughs to (those are already disclosed anyway) then we're already at 85% of assets. It would be a stretch of even the most hostile critic's imagination to believe I could have made a 300% growth whilst holding absolutely no securities at all (300% is roughly what growth would have been if the securities I say we hold don't exist - just the cash and pass-through shares).
Anyway, apologies to all offended by the fund's profitability.
LTC-ATF.B1 - FATALLY FLAWED?Although not explicitly stated, the following points relate to LTC-ATF.B1, not to the fund itself.
Second to this, your contract contains dangerous flaws. For example, you state you will sell shares to meet demand, but you also state you will increase dividend to increase demand. Which is it? The way you present yourself looks very nice (we will increase dividend to meet demand) but the reality is you are doing a bait and switch on your investors since you sell shares into the market to satiate demand. And what's worse you have a clause which allows you to sell shares below NAV, screwing over your existing investors to line your own pocket.
Oh dear - we have a bad case of lack of understanding here.
If the fund wants to sell bonds and there's sufficient demand to do so, then we do not raise the rate paid.
If the fund wants to sell bonds but noone is willing to buy then we do raise the rate paid.
We do NOT sell shares (bonds) to meet demand unless we can actually use the funds raised. Similarly we will NOT raise rates unless we are unable to sell bonds without doing so.
The idea that "we will increase dividend to meet demand" is just horrible. We do exactly the opposite of that. Dividend will be raised if (and only if) there's no demand to meet. Dividend is NOT increased to MEET demand - but to CREATE demand when none exists. To date there's been plenty of demand and so absolutely no reason to raise dividends.
This is all explained in the contract - in the very first overview section where it says:
" Bonds will initially be offered paying a 0.6% per week dividend - then the rate will be gradually increased as necessary until demand meets supply. "
Demand has never yet fallen below supply - so there's never been a need to increase it. Rather trivially, if demand is already above supply (which it is - as we have no bonds we're stuck trying to sell) then raising the rate could only move demand FURTHER away from supply and not any nearer to the two meeting. I'll admit I'm a bit surprised that we haven't had to raise the rate yet - but I'm not going to complain.
I can only speculate on why our correspondent thought the rate would be raised when demand was clearly already at or above supply level.
As for the idea that selling at below NAV/U would line my own pocket - that's just dumb beyond belief. The bonds can be sold back to the fund on request at 99% of face value. It would be terminally stupid of me to sell them at under that - as it would be trivially exploitable by people buying them then immediately cashing them back in causing a loss for me. The right to do that was reserved explicitly in case the rare situation arose where a significant profit could be made immediately if extra capital were available. That situation has yet to arise - and likely will never do so.
Further, the value of each bond is exactly 0.01 BTC regardless of who buys how many at what price. NOTHING I do can lower that. Yes - the market price CAN be lowered by me selling more bonds but short of never selling any there's no way around that. And it can't fall far below 0.01 - as the fund is committed to buying back any priced at .0099 BTC or less anyway. To the extent that I can I DO try to protect existing bond holders. So I'm tending now to sell into bids rather than place asks (as we have no urgent need for cash) so as not to bid down the asks of investors who want to sell. And sales of new bonds are pretty much done for now anyway.
If you view the bonds as some investment that will grow in price then you're looking at them wrong. They're issued at will by LTC-ATF and SHOULD always trade not too far from 0.01 BTC when the LTC/BTC exchange-rate is stable. They're a way to gain BTC exposure whilst generating a modest but predictable and reliable return - not some speculative growth thing.
BONDS NOT SUSTAINABLE?I'm also worried about what the BTC price spike has done to your fund and it's bond. You invest in stuff. BTC price has gone up 600% too. That means the stuff you invested in crashed. That means there is no logical way you can continue paying 0.6% a week on LTC-ATF.B1. I think you're going to have to show us your books. Because if this is not sustainable you need to come clean NOW before you screw over people's lives with a fraud-in-progress.
Well IF I were investing in stuff you may have a point. But LTC-ATF does NOT invest in stuff. We trade stuff. You're looking at LTC-ATF as though we were one of the failed GLBSE funds - that bought crappy mining securities at market rates then sat on them whilst they lost value. We just don't do that. There's a reason most of our assets are always cash - I mainly buy stuff when I expect to be able to sell it at a profit quickly. So most of our assets are cash committed to buy orders that rarely fill - and when they DO fill, we don't sit on them waiting for them to lose value, we sell them for a profit, rinse and repeat. There have been a few exceptions to this - ASICMINER which we held for a long time then sold for a 600%+ profit and DMC which we held for a few weeks then sold for a 100-200% profit.
If we buy something and I can't sell it at a profit then I sell it at break-even or a loss. I don't sit on it watching it drop in value (not for too long anyway).
Yes - a lot of the stuff I trade in HAS crashed in price. But most of the time it hasn't crashed enough to prevent us selling at a profit. Timing is the key - and understanding the way in which most investors (over)react to certain things.
The key value determining whether we can continue paying 0.6% on LTC-ATF.B1 is whether our growth/week adjusted to remove exchange-rate variation falls below a certain value. If we were maxed out on bonds then that value is around 2%. As we're not even near maxed out, at present trading profit would need to fall below about 1.5% per week for me to start becoming concerned. Whilst I don't expect profits to continue at 10%+ with LTC higher vs BTC I don't see any danger of them dipping that low.
We need to be careful not to conflate two different things:
a) That there's no logical reason for us to make a profit.
b) That I'm lieing about our assets.
When you seperate those two you should actually realise that I absolutely CAN afford to pay the rates as ONE of the following is true. Either:
1. My reports ARE (at least approximately) correct in terms of our assets - and hence we're very clearly making sufficient profit to pay the cost of capital. That you can't understand how it's done or duplicate it is YOUR problem, not mine. I'll take any reasonable steps to prove that we HAVE made this profit - but don't expect me to write a detailed How-To guide on it.
OR
2. I'm totally wrong/lieing when I report our assets (with most being cash it would pretty much HAVE to be lieing) in which case I'm running a ponzi/scam and so also CAN afford the rates.
There's NO scenario in which the rates can't be paid. The issue of whether this is a PONZI was addressed earlier.
GLBSE ASSETS NOT WRITTEN OFF?There are many other problems with what you are doing. You claim to have written off GLBSE failures back in October. But you had OBSI.HRPT on the books just a few weeks ago. And so on.
OBSI.HRPT was marked down to zero value right after GLBSE closed. It continued to be listed in the weekly reports for a while - but at a value of exactly 0. That accurately reflected the fact that we still (at least morally) owned those shares - and also that they had no likely value whatsoever. Writing them off does NOT mean that we abandon all claim to them should Obsi suddenly show up with a van full of cash and hand it out to his shareholders. The value of 0 reflected the fact that I assigned no meaningful likelihood to that actually happening.
Not sure what's at all contentious with that - if I'd claimed to write them off but left them on the books
with a non-zero value then you'd have a point. But that ain't what happened.
The only other GLBSE assets we had were ASICMINER and Bitbond. ASICMINER we sold last week for a very good profit on the .1 each we paid for them. Bitbond I sold very shortly after they relisted - we managed to sell them for more than I had them on the books for (and, in fact, more than we originally paid for them). We were one of the very few who managed to sell our shares before it became obvious to everyone that Rando was just another scammer.
As a final note - please be aware that I am NOT going to engage in relaying a stream of PMs debating/discussing my response to questions. I'll take questions - and answer them here anonymously. But if you want to debate/discuss my answers then I'm afraid you have to man up and put your name on it.