Free money available

[inca]

I want to short it but I've no idea how much % of my roll I should short to avoid getting margin called and when to begin the shorting position. According to armstrong the gold incoming crash is coming the week of the 10 of august right ? So Maybe we all should the 9th of august before opening our positions ?

@TPTB: when you say "The higher it goes, the less margin you need to short it and not get a margin call due to volatility to the upside, before the implosion. Another gift from perma-bull-tards." is it because right now btc has only 10% upside max (315/288) ?

If you are going to short, you have to allow for getting the timing slightly wrong. And price might move against you for a while. So you have to decide how much upside in the price you are willing to protect with margin and thus how much money you risk losing if it moves over that price. I can't guarantee you the price won't go higher than $315. I was going to put up enough margin to allow for $385 before I would get stopped out and lose the margin.

Also no one can make a 100% guarantee that BTC  is headed lower. Nothing is 100%. There is always some probability we are wrong. I think the probability is low, but it isn't 0%. The safest is to sell BTC for dollars and not short. Shorting is for those who need to risk.

Right on time for the Sept/Oct turn of the ECM (and the computer model prediction of massive volatility in the Euro from November until January), Armstrong's prediction the Fed would raise rates. South Africa already did. Other emerging markets will have to raise to protect their currencies and forex reserves.

So there is your factor to drive debt contagion. Rising interest rates.

Euro will collapse below parity dragging gold and BTC down.

We are going to shake out (pauperize) all those Bitards who have been criticizing me and Armstrong for the past 2 years. Wise crypto-currency investors will sell out to dollars here around $300 or (if they can stomach the risk) even short BTC.

Serious question: why do you think btc is correlated with gold or other commodities? Armstrong may be correct about a macroeconomic cycle but get bitcoin completely wrong.

Oh and I think you should make it clear you are not being highly irresponsible and advising people to leverage short bitcoin.

[TPTB_need_war]

Serious question: why do you think btc is correlated with gold or other commodities? Armstrong may be correct about a macroeconomic cycle but get bitcoin completely wrong.

[1] the reason I say that is because the Euro is preparing to gap down starting roughly in September or October. Or you short the Euro. I didn't run the numbers on that. I had BTC and needed to make a decision on my BTC. I don't have a brokerage account any more.

Go to stockcharts.com and run a 1 year chart on $EURUSD, then $GOLD, then $BRENT. Then go run a 1 year chart of BTC.

You see all dumped at the same time starting in August 2014.  All these assets are correlated at this time.

 

[inca]

Bitcoin was already in a bear market on that date.

A look at the charts from January 2015 tells a different story.

[TPTB_need_war]

Bitcoin was already in a bear market on that date.

A look at the charts from January 2015 tells a different story.

The big dump was all correlated. Since then it is has been record low volatility (thus not relevant) up until the recent rise up to test the long-term trend line at $315 which proved to be resistance again.

It is all over. $20 here we come...

...unless we break decisively over $320 and run up and beyond $400.

[Bit_Happy]

"Free money available"
Any chance you could change the thread title to something more accurate?

[TPTB_need_war]

"Free money available"
Any chance you could change the thread title to something more accurate?

(Btw, we've had cordial dialogue in the past and I don't want to smite you, but I have reasons for choosing that thread title)

No I rather like the connotation to the way people think about being long BTC.

I am teaching a lesson here about investing rationality versus ideology. (unless I am wrong about the coming price drop)

I want to use this coming shake out as a way to teach people to invest understanding that all markets move in the direction that destroys the most fools. Only very few people earn money from investing. Bitcoin will not be an exception. No investment will ever be exception.

Learn to be early or ride the overbought wave. But never buy a falling knife where fools are relying on CONFIDENCE to hold a balloon inflated at an overbought level. $10 to $300 in 2.5 years. That is still way overbought. The long-term trend line is at $320, but we have to undershoot by the similar extreme that we overshot to overbought $1000+ in 2013, in order to find a rock solid bottom.

Actually I don't think we will hit $20. I am thinking higher double-digits.

Edit: study the silver chart for the many quick reversals from spikes down, and every one ended up being broken by lower lows later. The recent spike down to the $160 level was not a bottom. The reversal was too fast. Bearish market bottoms are long drawn out affairs because they correlate to capitulation and exhaustion of the bulls. Bull market correction bottoms can be V bottoms, but we haven't been in a bull market since the top in 2013.

[inca]

Bitcoin was already in a bear market on that date.

A look at the charts from January 2015 tells a different story.

The big dump was all correlated. Since then it is has been record low volatility (thus not relevant) up until the recent rise up to test the long-term trend line at $315 which proved to be resistance again.

It is all over. $20 here we come...

...unless we break decisively over $320 and run up and beyond $400.

A 40% rise is low volatility?

So your argument seems to have evolved from 'free money' because 'reason' to unless the price breaks resistance from last weeks yearly high and marches higher, then perhaps then because 'reason' the price may crash to 20 dollars?

I think I liked you better when you were just an eloquent bonkers conspiracy theorist retired programmer. Making wild contrarian price predictions is a fool's game, moreover if you drag any unsuspecting innocent into playing along. You still haven't provided proof you are even short.

[Coins168]

and i thought there really is free money here
try to change the title please that would help the others not to fall for the same mistake 

[TPTB_need_war]

and i thought there really is free money here

There is. Just go long BTC and wait years. Free money doesn't say anything about the interest rate. (And optionally loan BTC at roughly 30% per annum return denominated in BTC at bitfinex so others can sell your BTC short)

Or the alternative is sell BTC and wait some months.

Also "free money" doesn't speak to the risk involved, e.g. the risk of being long BTC for years (your life priorities and needs change while BTC is < $100 for example) or the risk of borrowing BTC to sell short. Even doing nothing, breathing or driving in a car has risk.

Your timing and risk profile determines your choice amongst those options. For me, the optimum choice was to sell BTC for dollars at $300+. Because I need to expend the dollars over the next months on mathematicians and programmers. And I can't tolerate a drop in the dollar value, because my near-term expenses are in dollars. Also my upside is on R&D and not expending my time watching my short positions. And return of dollars is more crucial to me than riskier capital gains on dollars, because my upside is much greater on R&D with much less risk vs. reward, than on speculate investing. Others have different situations thus a different choice to make.

The interest rates have turned (as of yesterday in shocking development which has been predicted since the 1980s) which implies collapsing global liquidity, thus you don't stand a chance in hell of being correct against me and Armstrong's supercomputer with $1 billion of historical data pattern matched for periodic patterns.

inca I am not retired and when I replace Bitcoin, you can go hide under a rock.

inca, I suggest you view a volatility chart of which the recent pattern low was how in May we called for the rise to $315 (long-term trend line, now headed to $320) as well as the seasonality factor for gold which was pointed out by Armstrong.

[inca]

and i thought there really is free money here

There is. Just go long BTC and wait years. Free money doesn't say anything about the interest rate. (And optionally loan BTC at roughly 30% per annum return denominated in BTC at bitfinex so others can sell your BTC short)

Or the alternative is sell BTC and wait some months.

Also "free money" doesn't speak to the risk involved, e.g. the risk of being long BTC for years (your life priorities and needs change while BTC is < $100 for example) or the risk of borrowing BTC to sell short. Even doing nothing, breathing or driving in a car has risk.

Your timing and risk profile determines your choice amongst those options. For me, the optimum choice was to sell BTC for dollars at $300+. Because I need to expend the dollars over the next months on mathematicians and programmers. And I can't tolerate a drop in the dollar value, because my near-term expenses are in dollars. Also my upside is on R&D and not expending my time watching my short positions. And return of dollars is more crucial to me than riskier capital gains on dollars, because my upside is much greater on R&D with much less risk vs. reward, than on speculate investing. Others have different situations thus a different choice to make.

The interest rates have turned (as of yesterday in shocking development which has been predicted since the 1980s) which implies collapsing global liquidity, thus you don't stand a chance in hell of being correct against me and Armstrong's supercomputer with $1 billion of historical data pattern matched for periodic patterns.

inca I am not retired and when I replace Bitcoin, you can go hide under a rock.

inca, I suggest you view a volatility chart of which the recent pattern low was how in May we called for the rise to $315 (long-term trend line, now headed to $320) as well as the seasonality factor for gold which was pointed out by Armstrong.

Sorry thought you were retired. Replace bitcoin? Sure let me buy 50$ worth of coins when you launch

[ssmc2]

Bitcoin was already in a bear market on that date.

A look at the charts from January 2015 tells a different story.

The big dump was all correlated. Since then it is has been record low volatility (thus not relevant) up until the recent rise up to test the long-term trend line at $315 which proved to be resistance again.

It is all over. $20 here we come...

...unless we break decisively over $320 and run up and beyond $400.

This is about to happen chief.

[majamalu]

It is all over. $20 here we come...

  I know it's painful to have lost the opportunity to be an early adopter, but this is just sad. And it's also wrong, because someone could take you seriously.

[sana9821]

It is all over. $20 here we come...

  I know it's painful to have lost the opportunity to be an early adopter, but this is just sad. And it's also wrong, because someone could take you seriously.

well its still possible to go to 20 dollars if the people who stole from exchanges and satoshi decide to start dumping their coins in enormous amounts, even though it has small chances of happening, its still possible

[inca]

It is all over. $20 here we come...

  I know it's painful to have lost the opportunity to be an early adopter, but this is just sad. And it's also wrong, because someone could take you seriously.

well its still possible to go to 20 dollars if the people who stole from exchanges and satoshi decide to start dumping their coins in enormous amounts, even though it has small chances of happening, its still possible

People dont tend to deliberately waste money.

All these doomer threads have one thing in common, an OP who failed to buy in at lower levels and hopes the price will crash allowing history to repeat and enrich them in the process. Far more delusionary than bulls like me suggesting the price will rise commensurate with the next adoption wave.

[TPTB_need_war]

It is all over. $20 here we come...

  I know it's painful to have lost the opportunity to be an early adopter, but this is just sad. And it's also wrong, because someone could take you seriously.

Liars who quote out-of-context have no credibility:

Actually I don't think we will hit $20. I am thinking higher double-digits.

The only sad outcome is going to be when you (and inca) hide under a rock after I am correct and call out you (and inca) by name in this thread coming soon...

[TaurusBit]

I know it's painful to have lost the opportunity to be an early adopter

I think even if you buy today, you can still be considered an early adopter.  

Bitcoin is still in its infancy, don't forget.

[majamalu]

I know it's painful to have lost the opportunity to be an early adopter

I think even if you buy today, you can still be considered an early adopter.  

Bitcoin is still in its infancy, don't forget.

I agree. Maybe I should have said a "very early adopter".

[dothebeats]

Not the rally you want to be shorting, IMO.


Exhibit A


Exhibit B

Great graphs. Has anyone really listened to this 'prophet'? Not a good time to short hard on bitcoin.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Has anyone really listened to this 'prophet'? Not a good time to short hard on bitcoin.

I don't follow many people on this forum, but TPTB (aka Anonymint) is someone worth listening too. His comprehension and ability to crystallize information from diverse (and relevant) sources is impressive to say the least.

[dothebeats]

Has anyone really listened to this 'prophet'? Not a good time to short hard on bitcoin.

I don't follow many people on this forum, but TPTB (aka Anonymint) is someone worth listening too. His comprehension and ability to crystallize information from diverse (and relevant) sources is impressive to say the least.

Any threads wherein he proved his credibility? Actually, I'm kinda interested on what the OP states. It's just that I have some trust issues given that this is the internet.