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BillyBobZorton
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July 29, 2015, 04:50:42 PM
 #61

There's not much money to make unless you are holding a decent amount enough selling.
If you've got a couple of BTC only like most of us, the risk you are taking by selling now when no one knows if the price is about to burst into 400 territory or not in the near future is in my opinion not worth the headache.
Of course if it goes really low everyone will buy in, but risking your current BTC is not worth it imo. It's a gamble. Any whale can make this market shake up or down, its still the pioneer days. 4 billion marketcap is nothing.
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Luthier
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July 29, 2015, 05:05:27 PM
 #62

Serious question: why do you think btc is correlated with gold or other commodities? Armstrong may be correct about a macroeconomic cycle but get bitcoin completely wrong.

[1] the reason I say that is because the Euro is preparing to gap down starting roughly in September or October. Or you short the Euro. I didn't run the numbers on that. I had BTC and needed to make a decision on my BTC. I don't have a brokerage account any more.

Go to stockcharts.com and run a 1 year chart on $EURUSD, then $GOLD, then $BRENT. Then go run a 1 year chart of BTC.

You see all dumped at the same time starting in August 2014.  All these assets are correlated at this time.

 Kiss

2015 tells a different story.  Orange line is XAUUSD
https://www.tradingview.com/x/e31MoqlO/
mrhelpful
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July 29, 2015, 09:17:44 PM
 #63

how is the Martin Armstrong Discussion a free money?

someone explain to me in simple words. please... theres no such thing as a free lunch last time I checked.
Topbanker
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July 29, 2015, 10:33:22 PM
 #64

there is no such thing as free money.

Absolute nonsense
adamstgBit
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July 29, 2015, 10:56:29 PM
 #65

theres no such thing as a free lunch last time I checked.

there is no such thing as free money.

Absolute nonsense

The FED is rolling on the ground laughing, right now

RotterdamBitcoinCapital
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July 30, 2015, 08:22:20 AM
 #66

Sorry to say, but the title of this thread is very deceitful. It is great that you are a follower of Martin Armstrong, so am I, but that does not necessarily mean that all his predictions come true. As you know, he often changes his predictions down the road (an example is his recent turnaround on diamonds).

In addition, I see no reason why Bitcoin should follow the exact pattern of global markets such as the euro, commodities like oil or gold, or anything else. As Luthier has shown, Bitcoin has not followed the same price patterns at all as other commodities during the last 6 months. Another important point is that the Bitcoin market cap is completely meaningless if you compare it to the market cap of for example gold or oil. The people behind it, the people owning large chunks of Bitcoin are also a completely different group than institutional investors with different ambitions and long term goals.

I am not saying here you are wrong. You could be right. However, the way you present your information is very misleading for newbies. There is absolutely no guarantee that your predictions will unfold. Looking at the current market sentiment and the last six months you actually have the odds against you.

Last but not least, put your money where you mouth is and show us a printscreen of your shorts. Otherwise it will only look as incitement to other people.
inca
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July 30, 2015, 10:22:17 AM
 #67

Sorry to say, but the title of this thread is very deceitful. It is great that you are a follower of Martin Armstrong, so am I, but that does not necessarily mean that all his predictions come true. As you know, he often changes his predictions down the road (an example is his recent turnaround on diamonds).

In addition, I see no reason why Bitcoin should follow the exact pattern of global markets such as the euro, commodities like oil or gold, or anything else. As Luthier has shown, Bitcoin has not followed the same price patterns at all as other commodities during the last 6 months. Another important point is that the Bitcoin market cap is completely meaningless if you compare it to the market cap of for example gold or oil. The people behind it, the people owning large chunks of Bitcoin are also a completely different group than institutional investors with different ambitions and long term goals.

I am not saying here you are wrong. You could be right. However, the way you present your information is very misleading for newbies. There is absolutely no guarantee that your predictions will unfold. Looking at the current market sentiment and the last six months you actually have the odds against you.

Last but not least, put your money where you mouth is and show us a printscreen of your shorts. Otherwise it will only look as incitement to other people.

He is on record on another thread saying he has sold his bitcoin and doesn't use leverage.

Advising others to use leverage whilst not taking the risk yourself. Sounds legit!
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July 30, 2015, 01:28:44 PM
 #68

theres no such thing as a free lunch last time I checked.

there is no such thing as free money.

Absolute nonsense

The FED is rolling on the ground laughing, right now


haha yea true that lol
TPTB_need_war
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August 03, 2015, 01:41:23 PM
 #69

It might be wise to sell all private asset shorts for the time being. Looks like we need one more test of the resistance to the upside before the next move downwards in Sept-Oct. Also it appears the low in private assets won't be until Spring 2016, as we need to allow time for the October kickoff of the contagion in Europe to spread into liquidity crisis and selloff globally with capital rushing into the dollar as the safe haven...

It might even be wise to reestablish some long positions for the time being. There may be a possibility of the Bitcoin price moving above $320 and staying below the next zone of resistance.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35597



Quote
While gold elected the Monthly Bearish at 1155, we did so well below that level, yet holding the 1084 number both weekly and monthly. Our energy models are turning positive so it does not appear we will get major follow-through at this time. When you elect a Bearish Reversal that far from the number, you typically bounce back to retest it before proceeding further.

We have a Directional Change back to back for August and September and July was a turning point. So, we may see a reaction to the upside to flush out the shorts at this time since we have excessive bearishness building in the press as the WSJ comment that gold is the “pet rock”.

A reaction rally at this point BEFORE new lows will relieve the short positions but this is not likely to last beyond September. Therefore we are more likely than not going to see the final decline stage into the Benchmarks [now].

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35556

Quote
We must always play it by the numbers and time. Nothing else matters at the end of the day. Clearly, gold is not in such a Waterfall Event no matter how bearish everyone gets. We have moved beyond the 3 year window from 2011 and the Yearly Bearish Reversal at $681 has held. To make that final low in gold, the vast majority have to write off gold entirely and regard it as the WSJ just did – nothing more than a “pet rock”. So as the bearishness builds, this is good for establishing character separating the traders from the fools who just believe propaganda and trade fundamentally. But the hate mails still come in and this warns the tree must still be shaken. When they stop, then the market will be ready to rebound but only on short-covering – not new longs. So expect no sudden news of a huge buyer to save the day. That will NEVER happen. The low is made by massive shorts just as highs are made by fools rushing in an believe the propaganda of the promoters at the top.

... [click the url to read all]

Those targets for the low in gold are in the International Precious Metals Report that warns of the final decline. We are NOT looking for the low in gold to be on October 1 either. If that materialized, it would be extremely profound. However, the more likely event will be the rush to cash completing the final Flight to Quality.

How high gold will rise from a major low depends upon the entire political landscape but more importantly, the technical projections and the Reversals generated from that low. Will we still have a free market for gold? Or will gold move entirely underground, deemed the money of “terrorists” in an attempt to hunt down business conducted off the grid?  This we will cover for the future rally in the next Special Report.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35582

Quote
Government would not necessarily travel door to door to confiscate gold. They would more likely than not employ the same tactic as in the past – just outlaw transactions in gold to avoid taxes which might even include BitCoin. That would be the way they set the stage for confiscating anything that is avoiding taxation which they now call money laundering with up to 20 years in prison. This is now all about them – not you.

...

Such schemes against tax-avoidance would not be merely a target against gold alone. It would be against anything taking place in a tax-exempt atmosphere.

...

inca
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August 03, 2015, 03:05:21 PM
 #70

It might be wise to sell all private asset shorts for the time being. Looks like we need one more test of the resistance to the upside before the next move downwards in Sept-Oct. Also it appears the low in private assets won't be until Spring 2016, as we need to allow time for the October kickoff of the contagion in Europe to spread into liquidity crisis and selloff globally with capital rushing into the dollar as the safe haven...

It might even be wise to reestablish some long positions for the time being. There may be a possibility of the Bitcoin price moving above $320 and staying below the next zone of resistance.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35597



Quote
While gold elected the Monthly Bearish at 1155, we did so well below that level, yet holding the 1084 number both weekly and monthly. Our energy models are turning positive so it does not appear we will get major follow-through at this time. When you elect a Bearish Reversal that far from the number, you typically bounce back to retest it before proceeding further.

We have a Directional Change back to back for August and September and July was a turning point. So, we may see a reaction to the upside to flush out the shorts at this time since we have excessive bearishness building in the press as the WSJ comment that gold is the “pet rock”.

A reaction rally at this point BEFORE new lows will relieve the short positions but this is not likely to last beyond September. Therefore we are more likely than not going to see the final decline stage into the Benchmarks [now].

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35556

Quote
We must always play it by the numbers and time. Nothing else matters at the end of the day. Clearly, gold is not in such a Waterfall Event no matter how bearish everyone gets. We have moved beyond the 3 year window from 2011 and the Yearly Bearish Reversal at $681 has held. To make that final low in gold, the vast majority have to write off gold entirely and regard it as the WSJ just did – nothing more than a “pet rock”. So as the bearishness builds, this is good for establishing character separating the traders from the fools who just believe propaganda and trade fundamentally. But the hate mails still come in and this warns the tree must still be shaken. When they stop, then the market will be ready to rebound but only on short-covering – not new longs. So expect no sudden news of a huge buyer to save the day. That will NEVER happen. The low is made by massive shorts just as highs are made by fools rushing in an believe the propaganda of the promoters at the top.

... [click the url to read all]

Those targets for the low in gold are in the International Precious Metals Report that warns of the final decline. We are NOT looking for the low in gold to be on October 1 either. If that materialized, it would be extremely profound. However, the more likely event will be the rush to cash completing the final Flight to Quality.

How high gold will rise from a major low depends upon the entire political landscape but more importantly, the technical projections and the Reversals generated from that low. Will we still have a free market for gold? Or will gold move entirely underground, deemed the money of “terrorists” in an attempt to hunt down business conducted off the grid?  This we will cover for the future rally in the next Special Report.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35582

Quote
Government would not necessarily travel door to door to confiscate gold. They would more likely than not employ the same tactic as in the past – just outlaw transactions in gold to avoid taxes which might even include BitCoin. That would be the way they set the stage for confiscating anything that is avoiding taxation which they now call money laundering with up to 20 years in prison. This is now all about them – not you.

...

Such schemes against tax-avoidance would not be merely a target against gold alone. It would be against anything taking place in a tax-exempt atmosphere.

...

So sell everything and go short, but also go long because the price may rise? Smiley
TPTB_need_war
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August 03, 2015, 03:14:20 PM
 #71

So sell everything and go short, but also go long because the price may rise? Smiley

...

and IF we stay in the same column moving upwards (probably not gonna happen) 465$ (probably lower as we move to the right):

May I suggest we also redraw that long-term trend line from the inception of Bitcoin which was at $320 in early July, but will be at > $350 by September. Perhaps we will come back up to test that as resistance again? Could you draw it more accurately as you did last time? I don't have the necessary tools to draw it at my disposal.

Unlike gold (see my chart in my prior post), Bitcoin already broke out its down channel from the $1100 high. Thus perhaps it is only the bullish long-term trend line that serves as resistance.

Still at 320$, it is remarkable how it bounced back in this resistance!

Eyeballing it, looks like $325 now. What will the line projection be in September?

Notice also how briefly the price move above the line by roughly $20, so that could occur again.

I am sticking with this line as the most likely strong resistance until after gold has bottomed.

I believe overall (notwithstanding a rise back up to this trend line again before the next down wave Sept or Oct) we are still in a bearish mode due to the external contagion forces. When gold bottoms in spring, then those forces will be alleviated.

Edit: it is also amazing that Bitcoin broke out of its down trend channel from $1100 peak when the price crossed this long-term bullish line.

I am now expecting the double top I referred to upthread. I think we will come back up to test this line one more time.

dEBRUYNE
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August 05, 2015, 06:23:29 PM
 #72



2015 tells a different story.  Orange line is XAUUSD


Approximately a week ago I calculated the correlation of GOLD/BTC.

Results:
Last year (29-07-2014 - 28-07-2014): 0,519572846
YTD (01-01-2015 - 28-07-2014): -0,562651161

Quite interesting I have to say. Unfortunately I was not able to produce a correlation chart over time. I would love to see such a graph!

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TPTB_need_war
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August 07, 2015, 04:51:53 AM
 #73

But only 250.000(sic!) adresses are active ... https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses. In january the number dropped to 116.000.

I don't understand why upthread comments say that you are only quoting data for one wallet. The above data is for all addresses on the block chain. Duh!    Roll Eyes

I think it is very likely that Bitcoin adoption has stalled.

And it is very likely that active use is much less than a million users.

There are likely a million+ users who hold balances though.

I wouldn't worry about it. We are heading into a low price below $100 for Spring 2016, because the $usd is coming so strong due to the contagion in Europe, China, and developing markets. Commodities are declining.

Next year we will bottom and see the interest in private assets grow again, but it will be driven more by anti-government sentiment (due to expropriation in the EU) and thus anonymous coins will receive much more interest than Bitcoin.

Hi klee. Thanks for that.

however, i was hoping for a chart resembling this, with gold charted in.



TPTB_need_war
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August 08, 2015, 09:03:27 AM
 #74

MA has stated that was likely all the bounce we are going to get. Prepare to re-engage shorts:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35771

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August 10, 2015, 10:49:54 PM
 #75

https://thomasdorsey.wordpress.com/2015/08/10/the-continuous-commodity-index-uvy-theodore-modis/

"The continuous commodity index has completed a second S-shaped growth step that began in the 1990s. The downward deviation observed since the beginning of 2011 is arriving at its bottom. The turnaround point is expected between 2-Jan-2016 and 8-Aug-2016. From then onward, an upward trend should peak around 9-Aug-2019."

Last post is compliant with Martin Armstrong predictions as far as I understand.

TPTB?

I do believe BTC will make new all time highs 2017 or thereafter.

Yep. And MA's computer Socrates is remaining long gold until the first week of September. Appears that Aug. 10 (the yellow bar) is a turning point for a short-covering, short-term rally up to roughly $1140s, not for a crash. So you may want to go long again BTC for another rally up to the long-term trend line at $325±10 before we go short again for the collapse down to double digits:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35822

What changes after 2019, is that Asia's collapse will bottom as of 2020.05 (while the West will continue to spiral off into the demographic, politico-economic decay). That is 2015.75+4.3. Half of an 8.6 year cycle on the ECM (1000 x Pi days).

So perhaps from 2020, there is enough confidence to divest gold and start investing in Asian bonds paying high interest rates. I do believe FATCA will be in full force and enforced by the Chinese against foreigners. So you won't be divesting of your gold without paying the taxman back in your home Western country which might entail very high levels of taxation or even expropriation for "money laundering" when you can't show that you purchased the gold from an "approved dealer" (and other variants of the corrupt nonsense known as Civil Asset Forfeiture). I assume physical cash won't exist by that time, at least not in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Will be interesting to see how cash is phased out in these banana republics such as the Philippines.

This rally is a short-covering rally, but the justification for the greater fools will be that the contagion will demand another QE. Except this time the Fed will be raising interest rates not doing QE.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-10/gold-silver-are-surging-heavy-volume

Quote from: Tyler Durden
Hedgies are the most short ever... and Commercials are the least hedged in 14 years... and it appears rumors of PBOC buying along with dismal data from around the world has sparked a renewed awareness of another looming QE sending gold well north of $1100 and silver back above $15.

Let's see if BTC moves up with gold or if they are anti-correlated on short-term moves. I am fairly certain they are correlated on the general down trend. That is the problem with any straightforward correlation calculation, as there are correlations within the correlations. Hidden order is fractal in chaos theory. Armstrong has a computer correlating all these possible fractal orders. Unfortunately he apparently doesn't have enough historical data on Bitcoin to model it.

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August 11, 2015, 01:57:23 AM
 #76

theres no such thing as free money.

And if its for free like doing from a legit source by saying trading it always dependent on the individual of knowing something that others dont.

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August 11, 2015, 10:03:07 AM
 #77

theres no such thing as free money.

And if its for free like doing from a legit source by saying trading it always dependent on the individual of knowing something that others dont.

And that is TBTBs argument. He claims(based on his and MA thinking) to know something that the broader mass(=the greater fools) does not understand. I will risk a small part of my funds based on his analysis, just to make the rollercoaster more interesting/exiting for me.
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August 18, 2015, 05:44:00 PM
 #78

Everyone should have been short since $315 which is what I said first. And I should have stuck to that. Predicting the short-term moves is going to get you stopped out and you'll miss the entire decline. Everyone who did not short at $315 has already lost the decline to $254.

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August 18, 2015, 06:04:41 PM
 #79

The free money really gave us free money or not?

I can't understand the topic Huh
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August 19, 2015, 04:18:52 AM
Last edit: August 19, 2015, 05:47:26 AM by TPTB_need_war
 #80

Hope everyone has collected their free money...

Well in May I wrote in several Economics -> Speculation threads that BTC would rise from the low $200s to $315, then it would crash back down to eventually below $150 (and probably to double-digits) no later than sometime after October.

I reiterated these points over the past weeks in the Economics -> Speculation -> PnF and Economics -> Speculation -> Free Money threads. Even a few hours before the crash I reiterated these points again that everyone should have been short since $315.

The bottom in the BTC price will come in Spring 2016, and it will be back below $100, perhaps even below $50.

After that, we will start a new bull market that will make investors rich.

If you weren't dumb, you'd learn to stop ignoring me. You'd be clicking my Profile and reading all my archive of posts.

But you are dumb and lazy, so you won't do that. And so you will remain ignorant. And I sort of like that, don't you?

PS: I've decided to risk a portion of my BTCs following the advice you gave on Klee's thread. As stated there, I don't feel comfortable about it, but more and more I am convinced that your approach of BTC's is essentially a "gold-like" commodity and should be treated like one, is true. Undecided

As more people capitulate to the reality that it is better to be short than long that is what drives the extreme low.

This bounce back up is one more gift to go short before it is too late. Again the "Only the Date is Unknown". I don't know how far up the price will reach before crashing again or the timing. Volatility will increase.

The "End of Government" can mean many things. It can mean we still have governments exerting totalitarianism with the chaos of loss of rule of law (i.e. rampant corruption in government). Again study my upthread review of the decades long chaotic collapse of the Western Roman empire.

The government won't entirely disappear any time soon. You'll wish they would. In Rome it got so bad that the people just abandoned their land because the government was so oppressive. Later there was no government in Rome and only cows grazing in the city. But first the totalitarianism.

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