July 25th to Aug 8th diff thread

Adding 3 more

Philipma1957 -1.01 to -1.25
jonnybravo0311 +0.76 to +1.00
ezeminer +1.01 to +1.25
HerbPean +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho +1.51% to +1.75
Biodom +1.76 to +2.00
mavericklm +2.01 to + 2.25
tss +2.26 to + 2.50
Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
Lboss +3.51 to +3.75
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00
Kexkey +4.01 to +4.25
wpt1wpt1 +4.26 to +4.50
wlefever +4.51 to +4.75

I will take 0.51 to 0.75 than! Grin

Quote from: valkir on July 29, 2015, 12:14:01 PM

I will take 0.51 to 0.75 than! Grin

Philipma1957 -1.01 to -1.25
Valkir +0.51 to +0.75
jonnybravo0311 +0.76 to +1.00
ezeminer +1.01 to +1.25
HerbPean +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho +1.51% to +1.75
Biodom +1.76 to +2.00
mavericklm +2.01 to + 2.25
tss +2.26 to + 2.50
Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
Lboss +3.51 to +3.75
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00
Kexkey +4.01 to +4.25
wpt1wpt1 +4.26 to +4.50
wlefever +4.51 to +4.75

Done!

Difficulty is on the rise:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    54,280,905,711 (+3.83%)
Adjust time:    After 1437 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?):    378,166,924 GH/s

Price is around 290 on BTC.

My cat took a long nap, so we missed out on the prime real estate this time. Grudgingly he's opting for this slight increase:

+0.26% to +0.50%

It's probably going to be higher. But beggars can't be choosers...

Quote from: edonkey on July 30, 2015, 02:59:52 AM

Philipma1957 -1.01 to -1.25
edonkey +0.26 to +0.50
Valkir +0.51 to +0.75
jonnybravo0311 +0.76 to +1.00
ezeminer +1.01 to +1.25
HerbPean +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho +1.51% to +1.75
Biodom +1.76 to +2.00
mavericklm +2.01 to + 2.25
tss +2.26 to + 2.50
Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
Lboss +3.51 to +3.75
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00
Kexkey +4.01 to +4.25
wpt1wpt1 +4.26 to +4.50
wlefever +4.51 to +4.75

Done!

Bitwisdom keeps going up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    54,421,442,587 (+4.10%)
Adjust time:    After 1309 Blocks, About 8.8 days
Hashrate(?):    374,220,208 GH/s

Coinbase around 288 on value.

Quote from: notlist3d on July 30, 2015, 11:08:30 AM

These diff numbers above do not make a lot of sense. Look below

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146 +2 +2
7 26 2015------- 146 +2 +4
7 27 2015------- 154 +10 +14
7 28 2015------- 139 -5 +9
7 29 2015------- 145 +1 +10

we have 1293 blocks to go so we made 723 we are + 10 so 723/713 = ( +1.40% ) this is not close to the prediction above from bitcoinwisdom of (4.10%).

I not sure why the real number and the predicted number are this far apart.

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 30, 2015, 01:14:05 PM

Quote from: notlist3d on July 30, 2015, 11:08:30 AM

Interesting thanks phil for your amazing data as always. I will be extremely happy if bitwisdom is broken/not close in this case.

I like your real numbers much better. Bitwisdom seemed high compared to what we had been getting in past weeks so guess we will see.

well these lower numbers are actual blocks, of course as we know we could just get heavy days near the end where

160 , 160, 160 would be a plus of 48 blocks 2016/1968 = (+2.43%)

So we could be at + 1.40% until the last three days and then jump an extra +2.40% to +3.80%

As if just takes 3 days at 160 to do a decent jump up.

Look below

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146 +2 +2
7 26 2015------- 146 +2 +4
7 27 2015------- 154 +10 +14
7 28 2015------- 139 -5 +9
7 29 2015------- 145 +1 +10
7 30 2015--------135 -9 +1

we have 1222 blocks to go so we made 796 we are +1 so 796/795 = ( +0.12% ) this is not close to the prediction above from bitcoinwisdom of (3.33%).

I not sure why the real number made and the predicted number from bitcoinwisdom are this far apart.

xD Is there a thread that explain the rules of this or such?

It look like i got some catching up to do.

Quote from: VirosaGITS on July 31, 2015, 05:06:27 AM

xD Is there a thread that explain the rules of this or such?

It look like i got some catching up to do.

yes but quick rules are picks start at 300 and end at 1000

so for this time you have about 1 day.

it is free to enter

prize is 0.100 btc

no winner prize rolls over.

you get a range of .25%

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 31, 2015, 12:18:23 PM

Quote from: VirosaGITS on July 31, 2015, 05:06:27 AM

xD Is there a thread that explain the rules of this or such?

It look like i got some catching up to do.

yes but quick rules are picks start at 300 and end at 1000

so for this time you have about 1 day.

it is free to enter

prize is 0.100 btc

no winner prize rolls over.

you get a range of .25%

curent picks are below:

Philipma1957 -1.01% to -1.25%

edonkey +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer +1.01% to +1.25%
HerbPean +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss +2.26% to + 2.50%
Amph +2.50% to +2.75%
Mikestang +2.76% to +3.00%
zebedee +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26% to +3.50%
Lboss +3.51% to +3.75%
notlist3d +3.76% to +4.00%
Kexkey +4.01% to +4.25%
wpt1wpt1 +4.26% to +4.50%
wlefever +4.51% to +4.75%

so you could go real high and pick

+4.76% to +5.00%

or higher

or you could pick the last low positive

+0.01% to +0.25%

or go only 0 no range it gets a 0.20 prize since it is a perfect pick

Lastly you can go negative like I did.

I have -1.01% to -1.25%

Bitwisdom appears to be giving closer to real now:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    53,481,222,130 (+2.30%)
Adjust time:    After 1136 Blocks, About 7.8 days
Hashrate(?):    365,342,822 GH/s

Coinbase: 286

Thank you philipma1957!

I will take the 0.01%-0.25% if possible

Time to roll the dice.

-0.01% to -0.25% please

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146 +2 +2
7 26 2015------- 146 +2 +4
7 27 2015------- 154 +10 +14
7 28 2015------- 139 -5 +9
7 29 2015------- 145 +1 +10
7 30 2015--------135 -9 +1
7 31 2015--------150 +6 +7

we made 957 we are +7 so 957/950 = ( +0.73% ) this is not close to the prediction above from bitcoinwisdom of (3.00%).

I not sure why the real number made and the predicted number from bitcoinwisdom are this far apart.

Now if we pull 5 days at 150 + then the 3% looks pretty good.

right now under 1% looks real and possible

Quote from: philipma1957 on August 01, 2015, 03:43:54 AM

Bitcoinwisdom's current predicted number is always highly influenced by the last diff change.

If the last change would have been 10%, i'm sure we would see worst then 2,27% off as we speak.

curent picks are below:

Philipma1957 -1.01% to -1.25%

tlhIlwI -0.01% to -0.25%

VirosaGITS +0.01% to +0.25% corrected my error
edonkey +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer +1.01% to +1.25%
HerbPean +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss +2.26% to + 2.50%
Amph +2.50% to +2.75%
Mikestang +2.76% to +3.00%
zebedee +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26% to +3.50%
Lboss +3.51% to +3.75%
notlist3d +3.76% to +4.00%
Kexkey +4.01% to +4.25%
wpt1wpt1 +4.26% to +4.50%
wlefever +4.51% to +4.75%

I clean this up and added

VirosaGITS ---------- +0.01% to +0.25%

tlhIlwI---------------- -0.01% to -0.25%

I think 1000 blocks are done and we are closed

Quote from: philipma1957 on August 01, 2015, 02:06:00 PM

curent picks are below:

Philipma1957 -1.01% to -1.25%

tlhIlwI -0.01% to -0.25%

VirosaGITS +0.01% to +0.25%
edonkey +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer +1.01% to +1.25%
HerbPean +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss +2.26% to + 2.50%
Amph +2.50% to +2.75%
Mikestang +2.76% to +3.00%
zebedee +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26% to +3.50%
Lboss +3.51% to +3.75%
notlist3d +3.76% to +4.00%
Kexkey +4.01% to +4.25%
wpt1wpt1 +4.26% to +4.50%
wlefever +4.51% to +4.75%

I cleaned this up and added

VirosaGITS ---------- +0.01% to +0.25%

tlhIlwI---------------- -0.01% to -0.25%

I think 1000 blocks are done and we are closed

just checked we have made 1027 blocks

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+2.85%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   53,768,921,104 (+2.85%)
Adjust time:   After 989 Blocks, About 6.8 days
Hashrate(?):   387,325,664 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes
Updated:   10:5 (4.3 minutes ago)