July 25th to Aug 8th diff thread

[notlist3d]

Setting up a difficult thread for us who enjoy speculating for this week .   This thread is temporary once Phil get's back out of respect this thread will be locked and conversation go in his thread.

Bitwisdom Currently:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    53,021,845,756 (+1.42%)
Adjust time:    After 1897 Blocks, About 13.1 days
Hashrate(?):    385,112,057 GH/s

Coinbase is around 289.   So again not bad for miners.  Mild changes and slow rise in BTC.

[1715557921]

1715557921

[Philipma1957onvacation]

Thanks for setting it up, I did not want to impose on you.

Looks like the summer heat has not put diff into negative drops. My guess is companies are swapping older gear with newer gear.

[notlist3d]

Thanks for setting it up, I did not want to impose on you.

Looks like the summer heat has not put diff into negative drops. My guess is companies are swapping older gear with newer gear.

I think you are right on with this.   Look at bitmain's next batch of S5's "[Second Hand] ANTMINER S5 BATCH 7" .    I am really afraid of this and wish they would explain more.

I'm worried they sell used S5's clean out data centers then keep first X numbers of what ever miner is next for them.  So the S5 goes to a hobby miner, and a data center gets an upgrade.

Again all hypothetical for all I know these are just warranty ones that were fixed and I am reading to much into it.

And not a problem at all enjoy your vacation!

[Philipma1957onvacation]

Going to the beach in about ten minutes.  Virginia Beach has a nice boardwalk been fun so far.

[jonnybravo0311]

Of course Bitmain is filling its datacenter with newer gear.  You don't think they're just going to sell that new stuff to the general public before they get a chance to milk it themselves, do you? .  It's absurd that they are selling those secondhand S5s at new retail prices.  What's even more absurd is that people are buying them.  Talk about rolling in profits... let's mine with this gear (which we already charged our customers for their contracts) and now let's sell it again!  Brilliant!  Even if those S5s were not part of some hash rate contracts, they were still mining for Bitmain during the entire time.  Just food for thought:

Retail price at launch was about $450.
Orders opened around Christmas, 2014 (or thereabouts).
Assuming today's difficulty, that S5 would have mined you 2.17BTC from 1/12 until today.  Obviously, the difficulty was lower in January, but since retrocalc is still FUBAR, and I don't want to write my own code to calculate it, I'm lazily putting that number up .
Bitmain sells that S5 now for $400.

So, assuming it's been mining for the past 195 days (probably longer) and today's difficulty was constant that entire time (absolutely not true), and is sold to you today for $400, that single S5 has made Bitmain over $1000.  Since my numbers are skewed to a higher difficulty, that S5 has actually made considerably more than this.

If I get motivated enough, I'll write my own code to calculate expected payouts between two dates given a hash rate.  I wish retrocalc was working properly so I wouldn't have to.

[Philipma1957onvacation]

I prefer bitmaintech.com doing this slow growth model. Rather then the price war with spondoolies sp20
Dumping the s - 5 at 310 usd back in dec and jan crashe btc to 180. I am hanging in until sept and hope for new gear then I will buy some and mine with my winter power prices from October to May . Then sell it off into hopefully a pre half-ing price jump.

The plan is revealed so let's see if I can do it.

[Biodom]

I prefer bitmaintech.com doing this slow growth model. Rather then the price war with spondoolies sp20
Dumping the s - 5 at 310 usd back in dec and jan crashe btc to 180. I am hanging in until sept and hope for new gear then I will buy some and mine with my winter power prices from October to May . Then sell it off into hopefully a pre half-ing price jump.

The plan is revealed so let's see if I can do it.

Judging by used s5 prices, bitmain will give us all a price shock for S7
Perhaps, slowly buying some coin right now is advisable.
If price goes down, hold until halving, if price goes up-you will save on btc numbers for S7.

[Philipma1957onvacation]

I prefer bitmaintech.com doing this slow growth model. Rather then the price war with spondoolies sp20
Dumping the s - 5 at 310 usd back in dec and jan crashe btc to 180. I am hanging in until sept and hope for new gear then I will buy some and mine with my winter power prices from October to May . Then sell it off into hopefully a pre half-ing price jump.

The plan is revealed so let's see if I can do it.

Judging by used s5 prices, bitmain will give us all a price shock for S7
Perhaps, slowly buying some coin right now is advisable.
If price goes down, hold until halving, if price goes up-you will save on btc numbers for S7.

Buy and hold is soooo very boring.
I suppose I. Could grab four or five coins.

[HerbPean]

Bitcoinwisdom at 405 PH :-(

[mavericklm]

Hash Rate    400,210,368.97 GH/s
on blockchain

[Amph]

I prefer bitmaintech.com doing this slow growth model. Rather then the price war with spondoolies sp20
Dumping the s - 5 at 310 usd back in dec and jan crashe btc to 180. I am hanging in until sept and hope for new gear then I will buy some and mine with my winter power prices from October to May . Then sell it off into hopefully a pre half-ing price jump.

The plan is revealed so let's see if I can do it.

Judging by used s5 prices, bitmain will give us all a price shock for S7
Perhaps, slowly buying some coin right now is advisable.
If price goes down, hold until halving, if price goes up-you will save on btc numbers for S7.

Buy and hold is soooo very boring.
I suppose I. Could grab four or five coins.

i find it very hard to resist, in selling your coins, everyone want always to invest to move his money in some way

if s7 will cost not so much you will have two weeks to buy one and make a good profit before the diff begin to climb again

[notlist3d]

Yes looking like we will be over 400 after this change:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    53,706,336,534 (+2.73%)
Adjust time:    After 1759 Blocks, About 11.9 days
Hashrate(?):    405,330,081 GH/s


Currently BTC over 290.  Hopefully we can get a little bump on this price.

[notlist3d]

Morning Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    53,630,364,123 (+2.59%)
Adjust time:    After 1734 Blocks, About 11.8 days
Hashrate(?):    398,747,326 GH/s

Appears its going to be a positive change, question is just how much.

Coinbase is right under 290.   So not bad overall.

[Philipma1957onvacation]

Blockchain.info shows 144 made for Sunday and 78 for today. Basically the real time diff is under two percent.

Two percent of 400 ph is eight ph about seven thousand s-5 machines

[notlist3d]

Blockchain.info shows 144 made for Sunday and 78 for today. Basically the real time diff is under two percent.

Two percent of 400 ph is eight ph about seven thousand s-5 machines

It will be interesting to see the sell of the S5's from their data centers.   I wonder if they will have what ever is next to plug in right away, or if they will be unloading the "second hand" ones before gear is ready.

This is just a guess but I would think whenever the batch starts to ship... they would have something.  I just cant imagine them leaving a data center spot open.

[jonnybravo0311]

That's exactly what I was stating above.  There's no way they are going to leave empty space in a datacenter.  If they're selling second hand S5s, it's because they're replacing them with newer stuff.  The only people mining with Bitmain's newest gear is Bitmain.  Once they've sold off enough of those old S5s, they'll announce the newest miner to the public.

[notlist3d]

That's exactly what I was stating above.  There's no way they are going to leave empty space in a datacenter.  If they're selling second hand S5s, it's because they're replacing them with newer stuff.  The only people mining with Bitmain's newest gear is Bitmain.  Once they've sold off enough of those old S5s, they'll announce the newest miner to the public.

The most crazy thing is they mined with these machines for over a month.   And what do they get and the machines rised in value.... crazy!

I never thought I would see a miner that you could mine with and the miner itself rised in value.  So they got approx 40 day's of free mining on these then sell them.... and sell at higher price.   

We live in crazy days.

[jonnybravo0311]

Yup.  Crazy days.  I've been using this thing the entire time I've been trying to sell it, but I'm still going to charge you the full retail price, which by the way is now higher than what it was had you bought it when I first offered it for sale.

Seriously, these things are collectibles... they aren't classic cars... a Babe Ruth rookie card in pristine condition... they're a mass produced commodity.

[Biodom]

Yup.  Crazy days.  I've been using this thing the entire time I've been trying to sell it, but I'm still going to charge you the full retail price, which by the way is now higher than what it was had you bought it when I first offered it for sale.

Seriously, these things are collectibles... they aren't classic cars... a Babe Ruth rookie card in pristine condition... they're a mass produced commodity.

too early to say...we'll see in 30-40 years (see Apple II prices)

[bronie17]

Thanks for setting it up, I did not want to impose on you.

Looks like the summer heat has not put diff into negative drops. My guess is companies are swapping older gear with newer gear.

I think you are right on with this.   Look at bitmain's next batch of S5's "[Second Hand] ANTMINER S5 BATCH 7" .    I am really afraid of this and wish they would explain more.

I'm worried they sell used S5's clean out data centers then keep first X numbers of what ever miner is next for them.  So the S5 goes to a hobby miner, and a data center gets an upgrade.

Again all hypothetical for all I know these are just warranty ones that were fixed and I am reading to much into it.

And not a problem at all enjoy your vacation!

this is undoubtedly what is happening.. manufacturers are preferring to profit with their own hardware by mining than retail these days.. the end of small scale home mining is nigh also the end of my sandwhich

of course just look at KNC if you are sceptical, why should bitmain behave better? they are both in it for the money

[notlist3d]

Thanks for setting it up, I did not want to impose on you.

Looks like the summer heat has not put diff into negative drops. My guess is companies are swapping older gear with newer gear.

I think you are right on with this.   Look at bitmain's next batch of S5's "[Second Hand] ANTMINER S5 BATCH 7" .    I am really afraid of this and wish they would explain more.

I'm worried they sell used S5's clean out data centers then keep first X numbers of what ever miner is next for them.  So the S5 goes to a hobby miner, and a data center gets an upgrade.

Again all hypothetical for all I know these are just warranty ones that were fixed and I am reading to much into it.

And not a problem at all enjoy your vacation!

this is undoubtedly what is happening.. manufacturers are preferring to profit with their own hardware by mining than retail these days.. the end of small scale home mining is nigh also the end of my sandwhich

of course just look at KNC if you are sceptical, why should bitmain behave better? they are both in it for the money

I don't think it's fair to compare KNC to Bitmain.  Just based on products alone.

KNC is so secretive now we really don't know what they are doing. 

[Mikestang]

Once they've sold off enough of those old S5s, they'll announce the newest miner to the public.

You mean once they've ROI'd their new gear (which is much easier/cheaper to do when you're the manufacturer) they will announce and sell that from their data center, too.

It's criminal what they all doing with S5 "batch 7"; shame on anyone for buying from them and encouraging this behavior.  It's not the price that irks me, but that they insist on calling them "new" and then say some will be dusty and scratched.  Well no shit, used gear is dusty and scratched, call it used and sell it used for whatever price you want (your prerogative), but calling it new is foolish.

I think we're going to see steady <5% growth for a while to come still.

[zebedee]

Well it seems we're past the 300 point, so I'll start:  +3.01 to +3.25%

[Philipma1957onvacation]

Well it seems we're past the 300 point, so I'll start:  +3.01 to +3.25%

I would like my -1.01 to -1.25

Thanks

[HerbPean]

+1,26 to +1,50 (same as last diff)

Thanks !

[notlist3d]

+3.76 - +4.00

[notlist3d]

So far:

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00

*Misssed zebedee he has been added.

[Mikestang]

+2.76 to +3.00 please

[notlist3d]

So far:

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee + +3.01 to +3.25%
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00

Added mike

*Missed zebedee he has been added

[kenscho]

I pick:

+1.51% to +1.75

[notlist3d]

So far:

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho  +1.51% to +1.75
Possibly Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00
Possibly Amph + 4.01 to + 4.25

*Note I missed Zebedee and he has been put down.  Amp picked same spot as one I missed so I put him on closest above and below.   After he picks one I will remove other one. 

[tertius993]

So far:

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho  +1.51% to +1.75
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00

zebedee (3.01 to 3.25) is not on the list,

I'll take +3.26 to +3.50 please.

[Amph]

if i'm not too late i want +3.01 +3.25 otherwise the first range above 4.00 that is available

[notlist3d]

So far:

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho  +1.51% to +1.75
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00

zebedee (3.01 to 3.25) is not on the list,

I'll take +3.26 to +3.50 please.

Thank you tetrius I will have it corrected!

[notlist3d]

if i'm not too late i want +3.01 +3.25 otherwise the first range above 4.00 that is available

Sorry Amph I missed the first pick:

zebedee (3.01 to 3.25) is not on the list,

I'll take +3.26 to +3.50 please.

I appolgize for that.  Amph I put you down for closest above and below that were open.  Please let me know which one you want. (Or different one completely)

[notlist3d]

So far:

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho  +1.51% to +1.75
Possibly Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00
Possibly Amph + 4.01 to + 4.25

*Note I missed Zebedee and he has been put down.  Amp picked same spot as one I missed so I put him on closest above and below.   After he picks one I will remove other one. 

[Amph]

mmh ok the below spot is good enough for me it is near enough to my original prediction

so this "Possibly Amph +2.50 to +2.75" is ok

[mavericklm]

2 - 2.25?
thx!

[notlist3d]

mmh ok the below spot is good enough for me it is near enough to my original prediction

so this "Possibly Amph +2.50 to +2.75" is ok

Thanks for understanding, I will get you in the spot.

[notlist3d]

So far:

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho  +1.51% to +1.75
mavericklm +2.01 to + 2.25
Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00


mavericklm  the 2.00 was changed to the format: +2.01 to + 2.25

[mavericklm]

ofcourse! this is the way it's segmented
my fault

[notlist3d]

ofcourse! this is the way it's segmented
my fault

No problem at all .  Its easy to get those of on the start, common to accidentally do. 

So was put in with right start so no harm was done.  Good luck to all!

[Kexkey]

+4.01 to +4.25% for me this time.

Good luck all... Still surprising how small jumps are since months!...

[Biodom]

+1.76 to +2.00 please

thanks

[notlist3d]

Adding two more:

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho  +1.51% to +1.75
Biodom +1.76 to +2.00
mavericklm +2.01 to + 2.25
Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00
Kexkey +4.01 to +4.25

[tss]

+2.26 to + 2.50

[notlist3d]

+2.26 to + 2.50

Done!

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho  +1.51% to +1.75
Biodom +1.76 to +2.00
mavericklm +2.01 to + 2.25
tss +2.26 to + 2.50
Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00
Kexkey +4.01 to +4.25

For those watching bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    54,163,709,325 (+3.61%)
Adjust time:    After 1539 Blocks, About 10.4 days
Hashrate(?):    378,096,184 GH/s

Price on coinbase is around 297 .

[jonnybravo0311]

Crap... biodom took my pick

Um... guess I'll go with 0.76 to 1.00

[notlist3d]

Crap... biodom took my pick

Um... guess I'll go with 0.76 to 1.00

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
jonnybravo0311 +0.76 to +1.00
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho  +1.51% to +1.75
Biodom +1.76 to +2.00
mavericklm +2.01 to + 2.25
tss +2.26 to + 2.50
Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00
Kexkey +4.01 to +4.25


Done!

[philipma1957]

just got back from vay-cay



@ notlist.

keep running this one till the diff shifts keeps it easy for everyone to not jump around to a new thread.

i have to catch up with about 500 emails some pm's and a few other blog sites.


thanks for help.

first things i have to post a negative feedback to this copycat

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=538286

[notlist3d]

just got back from vay-cay



@ notlist.

keep running this one till the diff shifts keeps it easy for everyone to not jump around to a new thread.

i have to catch up with about 500 emails some pm's and a few other blog sites.


thanks for help.

first things i have to post a negative feedback to this copycat

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=538286

Sounds good! Hope you had a good vacation.  

And I don't envy catching up on PM's and email's.  Good luck

[philipma1957]

just got back from vay-cay



@ notlist.

keep running this one till the diff shifts keeps it easy for everyone to not jump around to a new thread.

i have to catch up with about 500 emails some pm's and a few other blog sites.


thanks for help.

first things i have to post a negative feedback to this copycat

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=538286

Sounds good! Hope you had a good vacation.  

And I don't envy catching up on PM's and email's.  Good luck

thanks

[Lboss]

I think there is an empty slot from +3.51 to +3.75 %. Id like to grab it before anyone gets, thx...

[notlist3d]

I think there is an empty slot from +3.51 to +3.75 %. Id like to grab it before anyone gets, thx...

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
jonnybravo0311 +0.76 to +1.00
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho  +1.51% to +1.75
Biodom +1.76 to +2.00
mavericklm +2.01 to + 2.25
tss +2.26 to + 2.50
Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
Lboss +3.51 to +3.75
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00
Kexkey +4.01 to +4.25

Done!

[HerbPean]

Welcome back Phil !

[philipma1957]

Welcome back Phil !

Thanks man,  had a nice time.  I got to  cross the Chesapeake Bay Bridge and Tunnel  always wanted to do that.  Beach was nice  change of pace from Jersey Shore beaches.

Tired from the driving.  But all in all a lot of fun.

[wpt1wpt1]

 +4.26 to +4.50 for me please

[ezeminer]

I will pickup +1.01-1.25%

Also welcome back phil. Sounded like that was good to get a vacation from the wild bitcoin life

[wlefever]

+4.51 to +4.75 for me please

[HerbPean]

Welcome back Phil !

Thanks man,  had a nice time.  I got to  cross the Chesapeake Bay Bridge and Tunnel  always wanted to do that.  Beach was nice  change of pace from Jersey Shore beaches.

Tired from the driving.  But all in all a lot of fun.

I found some pics of the bridge on google. Epic drive !  

[notlist3d]

Adding 3 more

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
jonnybravo0311 +0.76 to +1.00
ezeminer +1.01 to +1.25
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho  +1.51% to +1.75
Biodom +1.76 to +2.00
mavericklm +2.01 to + 2.25
tss +2.26 to + 2.50
Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
Lboss +3.51 to +3.75
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00
Kexkey +4.01 to +4.25
wpt1wpt1 +4.26 to +4.50
wlefever  +4.51 to +4.75

[valkir]

I will take 0.51 to 0.75 than! 

[notlist3d]

I will take 0.51 to 0.75 than! 

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
Valkir +0.51 to +0.75
jonnybravo0311 +0.76 to +1.00
ezeminer +1.01 to +1.25
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho  +1.51% to +1.75
Biodom +1.76 to +2.00
mavericklm +2.01 to + 2.25
tss +2.26 to + 2.50
Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
Lboss +3.51 to +3.75
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00
Kexkey +4.01 to +4.25
wpt1wpt1 +4.26 to +4.50
wlefever  +4.51 to +4.75

Done!

Difficulty is on the rise:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    54,280,905,711 (+3.83%)
Adjust time:    After 1437 Blocks, About 9.7 days
Hashrate(?):    378,166,924 GH/s

Price is around 290 on BTC.

[edonkey]

My cat took a long nap, so we missed out on the prime real estate this time. Grudgingly he's opting for this slight increase:

+0.26% to +0.50%

It's probably going to be higher. But beggars can't be choosers...

[notlist3d]

My cat took a long nap, so we missed out on the prime real estate this time. Grudgingly he's opting for this slight increase:

+0.26% to +0.50%

It's probably going to be higher. But beggars can't be choosers...

Philipma1957  -1.01 to -1.25
edonkey +0.26 to +0.50
Valkir +0.51 to +0.75
jonnybravo0311 +0.76 to +1.00
ezeminer +1.01 to +1.25
HerbPean  +1,26 to +1,50
kenscho  +1.51% to +1.75
Biodom +1.76 to +2.00
mavericklm +2.01 to + 2.25
tss +2.26 to + 2.50
Amph +2.50 to +2.75
Mikestang  +2.76 to +3.00
zebedee +3.01 to +3.25%
tertius993 +3.26 to +3.50
Lboss +3.51 to +3.75
notlist3d + 3.76 to + 4.00
Kexkey +4.01 to +4.25
wpt1wpt1 +4.26 to +4.50
wlefever  +4.51 to +4.75

Done!

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom keeps going up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    54,421,442,587 (+4.10%)
Adjust time:    After 1309 Blocks, About 8.8 days
Hashrate(?):    374,220,208 GH/s

Coinbase around 288 on value.

[philipma1957]

Bitwisdom keeps going up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    54,421,442,587 (+4.10%)
Adjust time:    After 1309 Blocks, About 8.8 days
Hashrate(?):    374,220,208 GH/s

Coinbase around 288 on value.

These diff numbers  above do not make a lot of sense. Look below

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10

we have 1293 blocks to go so we made 723     we are + 10   so 723/713 =   ( +1.40% )  this is not close to the prediction above from bitcoinwisdom   of  (4.10%).

I not sure why the real number and the predicted number are this far apart.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom keeps going up:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    54,421,442,587 (+4.10%)
Adjust time:    After 1309 Blocks, About 8.8 days
Hashrate(?):    374,220,208 GH/s

Coinbase around 288 on value.

These diff numbers  above do not make a lot of sense. Look below

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10

we have 1293 blocks to go so we made 723     we are + 10   so 723/713 =   ( +1.40% )  this is not close to the prediction above from bitcoinwisdom   of  (4.10%).

I not sure why the real number and the predicted number are this far apart.

Interesting thanks phil for your amazing data as always.  I will be extremely happy if bitwisdom is broken/not close in this case. 

I like your real numbers much better.   Bitwisdom seemed high compared to what we had been getting in past weeks so guess we will see.

[philipma1957]

well these lower numbers are actual blocks, of course as we know we could just get heavy days near the end  where 

160 , 160, 160  would be a plus of 48 blocks   2016/1968 =   (+2.43%) 

So we could be at + 1.40% until the last  three days and then jump  an extra +2.40% to +3.80%

As if just takes 3 days at 160 to do a decent jump up. 

[philipma1957]

 Look below

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1


we have 1222 blocks to go so we made 796     we are +1   so 796/795 =  ( +0.12% )   this is not close to the prediction above from bitcoinwisdom   of  (3.33%).

I not sure why the real number made  and the predicted number from bitcoinwisdom are this far apart.

[VirosaGITS]

xD Is there a thread that explain the rules of this or such?

It look like i got some catching up to do.

[philipma1957]

xD Is there a thread that explain the rules of this or such?

It look like i got some catching up to do.

yes but quick rules are   picks start at 300 and end at 1000 

so for this time you have about 1 day.

it is free to enter

prize is 0.100 btc

no winner prize rolls over.

you get a range  of .25%

[philipma1957]

xD Is there a thread that explain the rules of this or such?

It look like i got some catching up to do.

yes but quick rules are   picks start at 300 and end at 1000  

so for this time you have about 1 day.

it is free to enter

prize is 0.100 btc

no winner prize rolls over.

you get a range  of .25%

curent picks are below:

Philipma1957    -1.01% to -1.25%


edonkey            +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir               +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer           +1.01% to +1.25%
HerbPean          +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho            +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom            +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm      +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss                  +2.26% to + 2.50%
Amph              +2.50% to +2.75%
Mikestang        +2.76% to +3.00%
zebedee           +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993       +3.26% to +3.50%
Lboss              +3.51% to +3.75%
notlist3d         +3.76% to +4.00%
Kexkey           +4.01% to +4.25%
wpt1wpt1       +4.26% to +4.50%
wlefever          +4.51% to +4.75%






so you could go real high and pick  

 +4.76% to  +5.00%

or higher

or you could pick the last low positive

  +0.01% to +0.25%

or go only 0  no range  it gets a     0.20 prize  since it is a perfect pick

Lastly you can go negative like I did.


I have -1.01% to -1.25%

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom appears to be giving closer to real now:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    53,481,222,130 (+2.30%)
Adjust time:    After 1136 Blocks, About 7.8 days
Hashrate(?):    365,342,822 GH/s

Coinbase: 286

[VirosaGITS]

Thank you philipma1957!

I will take the 0.01%-0.25% if possible

Time to roll the dice.

[tlhIlwI]

-0.01% to -0.25% please

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7


 we made 957     we are +7   so 957/950  =  ( +0.73% )   this is not close to the prediction above from bitcoinwisdom   of  (3.00%).

I not sure why the real number made  and the predicted number from bitcoinwisdom are this far apart.

Now if we pull 5 days at 150 +  then the 3% looks pretty good.

right now under 1% looks real and possible

[HerbPean]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7


 we made 957     we are +7   so 957/950  =  ( +0.73% )   this is not close to the prediction above from bitcoinwisdom   of  (3.00%).

I not sure why the real number made  and the predicted number from bitcoinwisdom are this far apart.

Now if we pull 5 days at 150 +  then the 3% looks pretty good.

right now under 1% looks real and possible

Bitcoinwisdom's current predicted number is always highly influenced by the last diff change.

If the last change would have been 10%, i'm sure we would see worst then 2,27% off as we speak.

[philipma1957]

curent picks are below:

Philipma1957    -1.01% to -1.25%

tlhIlwI               -0.01% to -0.25%

VirosaGITS        +0.01% to +0.25%  corrected my error
edonkey            +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir               +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer           +1.01% to +1.25%
HerbPean          +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho            +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom            +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm      +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss                  +2.26% to + 2.50%
Amph              +2.50% to +2.75%
Mikestang        +2.76% to +3.00%
zebedee           +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993       +3.26% to +3.50%
Lboss              +3.51% to +3.75%
notlist3d         +3.76% to +4.00%
Kexkey           +4.01% to +4.25%
wpt1wpt1       +4.26% to +4.50%
wlefever          +4.51% to +4.75%



I clean this up and added

VirosaGITS ----------  +0.01% to  +0.25%

tlhIlwI----------------   -0.01% to  -0.25%


I think 1000 blocks are done and we are closed

[philipma1957]

curent picks are below:

Philipma1957    -1.01% to -1.25%

tlhIlwI               -0.01% to -0.25%

VirosaGITS        +0.01% to +0.25%
edonkey            +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir               +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer           +1.01% to +1.25%
HerbPean          +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho            +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom            +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm      +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss                  +2.26% to + 2.50%
Amph              +2.50% to +2.75%
Mikestang        +2.76% to +3.00%
zebedee           +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993       +3.26% to +3.50%
Lboss              +3.51% to +3.75%
notlist3d         +3.76% to +4.00%
Kexkey           +4.01% to +4.25%
wpt1wpt1       +4.26% to +4.50%
wlefever          +4.51% to +4.75%



I cleaned this up and added

VirosaGITS ----------  +0.01% to  +0.25%

tlhIlwI----------------   -0.01% to  -0.25%


I think 1000 blocks are done and we are closed

just checked we have made 1027 blocks

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+2.85%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   53,768,921,104 (+2.85%)
Adjust time:   After 989 Blocks, About 6.8 days
Hashrate(?):   387,325,664 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes
Updated:   10:5 (4.3 minutes ago)

[VirosaGITS]

Even with the super range you gave me, i didn't win!

I am joking, but;

VirosaGITS        +0.01% to +2.5%

[philipma1957]

Even with the super range you gave me, i didn't win!

I am joking, but;

VirosaGITS        +0.01% to +2.5%

yeah you would stand a good chance. with a 10x size range.  

 

the results come in about 965 blocks  your +0.01% to +0.25%  is a lot closer then bitcoinwisdom's current prediction shows.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   53,686,766,250 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>   (+2.69%)  this is a future guess on thier part
Adjust time:   After 967 Blocks, About 6.6 days
Hashrate(?):   388,679,931 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated:   13:25 (1.1 minutes ago)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   has us at  (+1.56%)   this is more of a current number

Blocks   367961
Total BTC   14.449M
 
Difficulty   52278304846
Estimated   53094219903 in 967 blks
 
Network total   419434.064 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.72 / 535 s

[VirosaGITS]

Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".

The round is not over yet

You're not talking about this?;

Adjust time:   After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days

[philipma1957]

Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".

The round is not over yet

You're not talking about this?;

Adjust time:   After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days

okay each  diff adjustment   that number starts at 2016  and count down to 0

so

 when 2016 - 300 =  1716   that is the start of picks
 when 2016 -1000 = 1016   that is the end of picks

we are at
   2016 -1053 = 963     so picks are ended but winner comes  in 963 blocks  with the new adjustment.  so you are in the running.


Some back ground on why we did it like this.

  We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11%   and the closest to the real number won.

 but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11%  they would pick 1.10% and 1.12%    so you got fucked in that you need to be perfect.

so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.

We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.

that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.

so we start  picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000.  so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.

We also speculate on why diff moves about.  or stays stable.  if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high  .  20% every 2 weeks for about a year.  to lower like now 2% for about a year.

[VirosaGITS]

Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".

The round is not over yet

You're not talking about this?;

Adjust time:   After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days

okay each  diff adjustment   that number starts at 2016  and count down to 0

so

 when 2016 - 300 =  1716   that is the start of picks
 when 2016 -1000 = 1016   that is the end of picks

we are at
   2016 -1053 = 963     so picks are ended but winner comes  in 963 blocks  with the new adjustment.  so you are in the running.


Some back ground on why we did it like this.

  We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11%   and the closest to the real number won.

 but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11%  they would pick 1.10% and 1.12%    so you got fucked inthat you need to be perfect.

so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.

We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.

that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.

so we start  picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000.  so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.

We also speculate on why diff moves about.  or stays stable.  if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high  .  20% every 2 weeks for about a year.  to lower like now 2% for about a year.

I see. Thank you for the explanation!

Hmm i guess people using multiple accounts still aren't really penalized, since they can get bigger range.

But at least its harder to get a pick with better odds if you wait and try to snipe the value at the last time with new accounts, since the range is locked.

Ever thought of putting a minimum activity requirement?

[philipma1957]

Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".

The round is not over yet

You're not talking about this?;

Adjust time:   After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days

okay each  diff adjustment   that number starts at 2016  and count down to 0

so

 when 2016 - 300 =  1716   that is the start of picks
 when 2016 -1000 = 1016   that is the end of picks

we are at
   2016 -1053 = 963     so picks are ended but winner comes  in 963 blocks  with the new adjustment.  so you are in the running.


Some back ground on why we did it like this.

  We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11%   and the closest to the real number won.

 but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11%  they would pick 1.10% and 1.12%    so you got fucked in that you need to be perfect.

so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.

We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.

that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.

so we start  picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000.  so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.

We also speculate on why diff moves about.  or stays stable.  if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high  .  20% every 2 weeks for about a year.  to lower like now 2% for about a year.

I see. Thank you for the explanation!

Hmm i guess people using multiple accounts still aren't really penalized, since they can get bigger range.

But at least its harder to get a pick with better odds if you wait and try to snipe the value at the last time with new accounts, since the range is locked.

Ever thought of putting a minimum activity requirement?

yeah but realistically the prize is small 0.10 btc  and so far we have not had 100 newbies in the first hour lock up all the picks.  If that happens I think we would cancel it.

[VirosaGITS]

Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".

The round is not over yet

You're not talking about this?;

Adjust time:   After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days

okay each  diff adjustment   that number starts at 2016  and count down to 0

so

 when 2016 - 300 =  1716   that is the start of picks
 when 2016 -1000 = 1016   that is the end of picks

we are at
   2016 -1053 = 963     so picks are ended but winner comes  in 963 blocks  with the new adjustment.  so you are in the running.


Some back ground on why we did it like this.

  We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11%   and the closest to the real number won.

 but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11%  they would pick 1.10% and 1.12%    so you got fucked inthat you need to be perfect.

so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.

We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.

that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.

so we start  picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000.  so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.

We also speculate on why diff moves about.  or stays stable.  if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high  .  20% every 2 weeks for about a year.  to lower like now 2% for about a year.

I see. Thank you for the explanation!

Hmm i guess people using multiple accounts still aren't really penalized, since they can get bigger range.

But at least its harder to get a pick with better odds if you wait and try to snipe the value at the last time with new accounts, since the range is locked.

Ever thought of putting a minimum activity requirement?

yeah but realistically the prize is small 0.10 btc  and so far we have not had 100 newbies in the first hour lock up all the picks.  If that happens I think we would cancel it.

Well maybe they just havent discovered it because there's newbies trying all kind of crazy thing just to get in Sig Campaign. I seen crazier stuff happen for 20 bucks.

I'm still wondering however. Where does the BTC come from, i don't see ads or anything. There is such a kind benefactor who dont mind giving 0.1 every 2 weeks?

[notlist3d]

Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".

The round is not over yet

You're not talking about this?;

Adjust time:   After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days

okay each  diff adjustment   that number starts at 2016  and count down to 0

so

 when 2016 - 300 =  1716   that is the start of picks
 when 2016 -1000 = 1016   that is the end of picks

we are at
   2016 -1053 = 963     so picks are ended but winner comes  in 963 blocks  with the new adjustment.  so you are in the running.


Some back ground on why we did it like this.

  We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11%   and the closest to the real number won.

 but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11%  they would pick 1.10% and 1.12%    so you got fucked inthat you need to be perfect.

so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.

We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.

that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.

so we start  picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000.  so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.

We also speculate on why diff moves about.  or stays stable.  if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high  .  20% every 2 weeks for about a year.  to lower like now 2% for about a year.

I see. Thank you for the explanation!

Hmm i guess people using multiple accounts still aren't really penalized, since they can get bigger range.

But at least its harder to get a pick with better odds if you wait and try to snipe the value at the last time with new accounts, since the range is locked.

Ever thought of putting a minimum activity requirement?

yeah but realistically the prize is small 0.10 btc  and so far we have not had 100 newbies in the first hour lock up all the picks.  If that happens I think we would cancel it.

Well maybe they just havent discovered it because there's newbies trying all kind of crazy thing just to get in Sig Campaign. I seen crazier stuff happen for 20 bucks.

I'm still wondering however. Where does the BTC come from, i don't see ads or anything. There is such a kind benefactor who dont mind giving 0.1 every 2 weeks?

There is a kind benefactor.   And sign campaigns are not bad if used right, but I will not get into that here not sure what crazy things you mean.  They keep it pretty well in check between campaign managers and mod admins.

But yes if a bunch of new accounts start guessing it would be noticed. So far there has not needed to be rules as normally speculation is users who have been here a while.  But if someone signs up with multiple accounts and takes guesses, i'm sure rules can be added.

Difficulty like rest of summer is still looking good:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    53,720,691,762 (+2.76%)
Adjust time:    After 930 Blocks, About 6.4 days
Hashrate(?):    380,119,309 GH/s

Price is going down a little this period around 282 on coinbase.

[suchmoon]

Well maybe they just havent discovered it because there's newbies trying all kind of crazy thing just to get in Sig Campaign. I seen crazier stuff happen for 20 bucks.

I'm still wondering however. Where does the BTC come from, i don't see ads or anything. There is such a kind benefactor who dont mind giving 0.1 every 2 weeks?

It's just a lottery with a fairly low chance of winning. Not sure if that's really such an attractive opportunity for account farmers, milking sig campaigns is easier I guess. But as guys already mentioned we can easily add "only full+ members" or similar rule if that becomes a problem.

The BTC is coming from my mining revenue. Slow difficulty growth for the past year or so has been wonderful for mining, puts me in a sharing mood 

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20

1176 made so far   so  1176/1156 =   (+1.73%)    so in 2 days with a 150 and a 157   we jumped from 0.12% to 1.73%    still far less then the 4.47% prediction below.


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   54,614,884,940 (+4.47%)
Adjust time:   After 840 Blocks, About 5.6 days
Hashrate(?):   399,368,080 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   7:30 (2.2 minutes ago)

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20
8 2   2015--------151    + 7      +27


1256 made so far   so  1256/1229 =   (+2.19%)        still  less then the 2.47% prediction below.


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+2.47%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   53,568,040,299 (+2.47%)
Adjust time:   After 760 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):   388,663,912 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated:   22:40 (5.5 minutes ago)

The number have become close  we are +27 blocks    with 760 blocks left  things are up in the air. A drop off can happen since a couple of  130 days brings us under 0 by 1 block


according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

we had :

130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July   9th 2015
130 day July  4th  2015

In june we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015


are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015

So we can get a decent swing over the next 760 blocks left.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20
8  2  2015--------151    + 7      +27
8  3  2015--------156    +12     +39

1491 made so far   so  1491/1452 =   (+2.68%)        still  less then the 4.66% prediction below.


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+4.66%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   54,715,412,465 (+4.66%)
Adjust time:   After 525 Blocks, About 3.5 days
Hashrate(?):   400,528,562 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.3 minutes









according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

we had :

130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July   9th 2015
130 day July  4th  2015

In june we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015


are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015

So we can get a decent swing over the next 525 blocks left.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20
8  2  2015--------151    + 7      +27
8  3  2015--------156    +12     +39
8  4  2015--------137    -7        +32

1541 made so far   so  1541/1509 =   (+2.12%)        still  less then the 2.92% prediction below.


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+2.92%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   53,806,269,712 (+2.92%)
Adjust time:   After 475 Blocks, About 3.2 days
Hashrate(?):   378,178,298 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29. minutes
6 blocks: 58.5 minutes









according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

we had :

130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July   9th 2015
130 day July  4th  2015

In June we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015


are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015

So we can get a decent swing over the next 475 blocks left.

The Aug 4 number of 137 dropped us close to 2%

3 days at 137 and I think we would be close to 0.50%

Good luck to all.

[judypug1956]

Really big drop in diff today.  So much  wonder why.

[philipma1957]

My guess is bitmaintech is refitting their mine.

Yesterday the blocks were 137.


http://btc.blockr.io/charts


today we are on pace for 130 maybe 125

Bitmaintech is now listing the s-5's as used gear.  I believe they are selling them all off. I also think they are not rushing to fire new gear up at the moment. Thus  diff dropped hard yesterday and today.

Lets say they packed up 3000 or 4000 s-5's for sale.  That is 3.5 to 4.6th  about 1 to 1.5%   if they do not  put s-7 or s-5+ on line while they pack up a few thousand used s-5's they get 2 full weeks of a lower rate.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>   (+1.37%) dropping like a stone.  we could be negative in a day

Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   52,993,476,422 (+1.37%)
Adjust time:   After 404 Blocks, About 2.8 days
Hashrate(?):   367,790,006 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.9 minutes
Updated:   12:30 (2.9 minutes ago)


If we do 124 today and 124 tomorrow  we are negative.

[suchmoon]

Variance.





Ok, ok, I'm going 

[Mikestang]

Well we do know that Bitmain is unplugging S5s to sell as "new" to make way for the real new gear, so a small drop can be expected while this swap occurs.

[suchmoon]

Well we do know that Bitmain is unplugging S5s to sell as "new" to make way for the real new gear, so a small drop can be expected while this swap occurs.

If I was Bitmain I would do it like this:

- bring 100 new miners
- unplug 100 S5s (I'm assuming the new ones are roughly 1:1 replacement just faster)
- plug 100 new ones in

Rinse and repeat until all 5 or 10 or 20 PH/s is replaced.

I wouldn't empty out the whole data center at once because I wouldn't be able to manufacture all new miners or ship the old ones out instantly anyway.

[philipma1957]

Well we do know that Bitmain is unplugging S5s to sell as "new" to make way for the real new gear, so a small drop can be expected while this swap occurs.

If I was Bitmain I would do it like this:

- bring 100 new miners
- unplug 100 S5s (I'm assuming the new ones are roughly 1:1 replacement just faster)
- plug 100 new ones in

Rinse and repeat until all 5 or 10 or 20 PH/s is replaced.

I wouldn't empty out the whole data center at once because I wouldn't be able to manufacture all new miners or ship the old ones out instantly anyway.

I'm a bit lazy with math I also would have done it the way you described.

But if I just pack up a whole 3000-4000 going offline right now and get a minus one vs a plus three the math may work. Later today I will do some math on this.

[HerbPean]

Well we do know that Bitmain is unplugging S5s to sell as "new" to make way for the real new gear, so a small drop can be expected while this swap occurs.

If I was Bitmain I would do it like this:

- bring 100 new miners
- unplug 100 S5s (I'm assuming the new ones are roughly 1:1 replacement just faster)
- plug 100 new ones in

Rinse and repeat until all 5 or 10 or 20 PH/s is replaced.

I wouldn't empty out the whole data center at once because I wouldn't be able to manufacture all new miners or ship the old ones out instantly anyway.

I'm a bit lazy with math I also would have done it the way you described.

But if I just pack up a whole 3000-4000 going offline right now and get a minus one vs a plus three the math may work. Later today I will do some math on this.

I think you have to also take in consideration what is the power consumption of the new hardware. That might be a "ball game changer". S5 590Watt vs S7 850Watt (speculating)

That might bring a lot or power manipulation or none at all

[suchmoon]

I think you have to also take in consideration what is the power consumption of the new hardware. That might be a "ball game changer". S5 590Watt vs S7 850Watt (speculating)

That might bring a lot or power manipulation or none at all

Again, pretending I'm Bitmain - if I got a 20 PH/s datacenter full of 600W miners, would I

a) develop a new miner in a form factor that is a plug-n-play replacement for the old one

or

b) develop a new miner so that it requires a complete overhaul of power and cooling infrastructure.

I think at the time of S5 development Hashnest wasn't big enough for them to care too much about that (therefore S3 ~350W -> S5 ~600W) but now they have a strong incentive to keep it simple.

[HerbPean]

I think you have to also take in consideration what is the power consumption of the new hardware. That might be a "ball game changer". S5 590Watt vs S7 850Watt (speculating)

That might bring a lot or power manipulation or none at all

Again, pretending I'm Bitmain - if I got a 20 PH/s datacenter full of 600W miners, would I

a) develop a new miner in a form factor that is a plug-n-play replacement for the old one

or

b) develop a new miner so that it requires a complete overhaul of power and cooling infrastructure.

I think at the time of S5 development Hashnest wasn't big enough for them to care too much about that (therefore S3 ~350W -> S5 ~600W) but now they have a strong incentive to keep it simple.

I would pick A

[suchmoon]

I would pick A

I'm hoping for A too, I hated the upgrade from S3s to S5s, actually didn't even upgrade most of them as I didn't want replace all PSUs and there wasn't that much of a gain of W/GH. This time it should be more interesting.

[VirosaGITS]

I would pick A

I'm hoping for A too, I hated the upgrade from S3s to S5s, actually didn't even upgrade most of them as I didn't want replace all PSUs and there wasn't that much of a gain of W/GH. This time it should be more interesting.

I also think if Bitmain is refitting their mine with newer hardware, the form factor and connector factor is going to remain the same. It make it more likely for what i'm hoping to happen, happen.

I'm just not sure Bitmain need to sell the new stuff yet, but at the same time, wouldn't it be more worthwhile to sell the hardware before the Diff go up?

[HerbPean]

I would pick A

I'm hoping for A too, I hated the upgrade from S3s to S5s, actually didn't even upgrade most of them as I didn't want replace all PSUs and there wasn't that much of a gain of W/GH. This time it should be more interesting.

I also think if Bitmain is refitting their mine with newer hardware, the form factor and connector factor is going to remain the same. It make it more likely for what i'm hoping to happen, happen.

I'm just not sure Bitmain need to sell the new stuff yet, but at the same time, wouldn't it be more worthwhile to sell the hardware before the Diff go up?

If they mine 2 weeks with them before they are release, it's 2 week with more income in their pocket before they sell them to the public.

This is why we think they are selling their used S5 to flip them with their new S7 (or whatever they named it)

They are many factors to take in consideration before they sell the S7 to the public like the difficulty (if someone else bring a new hardware), the bitcoin value ... and so on.

[VirosaGITS]

I would pick A

I'm hoping for A too, I hated the upgrade from S3s to S5s, actually didn't even upgrade most of them as I didn't want replace all PSUs and there wasn't that much of a gain of W/GH. This time it should be more interesting.

I also think if Bitmain is refitting their mine with newer hardware, the form factor and connector factor is going to remain the same. It make it more likely for what i'm hoping to happen, happen.

I'm just not sure Bitmain need to sell the new stuff yet, but at the same time, wouldn't it be more worthwhile to sell the hardware before the Diff go up?

If they mine 2 weeks with them before they are release, it's 2 week with more income in their pocket before they sell them to the public.

This is why we think they are selling their used S5 to flip them with their new S7 (or whatever they named it)

They are many factors to take in consideration before they sell the S7 to the public like the difficulty (if someone else bring a new hardware), the bitcoin value ... and so on.

Hmm, i suppose that may be true, but i don't think the difference between 2 weeks of mining with new hardware in itself change much. It's just that subsequent wave of more efficient hardware raise the diff a bit and knock off some older hardware. I'm just not sure how much impact new waves will have on the difficulty.

Also i'm not sure Bitmain is going to have much competition, since they seem in a good position and very much inclined to knock them off if one try to rise. Then again, i guess we'll see soon enough.

[philipma1957]

I would pick A

I'm hoping for A too, I hated the upgrade from S3s to S5s, actually didn't even upgrade most of them as I didn't want replace all PSUs and there wasn't that much of a gain of W/GH. This time it should be more interesting.

I also think if Bitmain is refitting their mine with newer hardware, the form factor and connector factor is going to remain the same. It make it more likely for what i'm hoping to happen, happen.

I'm just not sure Bitmain need to sell the new stuff yet, but at the same time, wouldn't it be more worthwhile to sell the hardware before the Diff go up?

bitmain has so much hash power they can easily move the network's diff by 3 TO 5 %

SO two days ago diff was about 4.2 %    by packing up a shit ton of gear like the used s-5's with 3 days left to the end of adjustment they drop hashrate.  they then power on the replacement s-7's while people are buying the older s-5's.  if net diff ends at 51.8 to 52.5  they turn on say   20% more ph after the adjustment all in s-7's

so next diff jumps  but before it jumps they had 2 full weeks with  a lot of s-7 gear.

If they want to sell a shit ton of gear they could..  selling gear is a double edge sword for them since they mine.  So every ph of gear they sell hurts their farm.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20
8  2  2015--------151    + 7      +27
8  3  2015--------156    +12     +39
8  4  2015--------137    -7        +32
8  5  2015--------133    -11      +21

1680 down  so  1680/1659 =   (+1.26%)


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+2.03%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   53,339,262,076 (+2.03%)
Adjust time:   After 336 Blocks, About 2.3 days
Hashrate(?):   360,277,421 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated:   22:35 (6.0 minutes ago)



1.26% vs 2.03%

with 336 blocks left  2 days of 133 blocks would put us next to zero  so a few more sales days by bitmaintech of their

s-5's would bring us to negative numbers.  coinbase is holding steady at 282 usd.






according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

we had :

130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July   9th 2015
130 day July  4th  2015

In June we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015


are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015

So we can get a decent swing over the next 336 blocks left.

The Aug 4 number of 137 dropped us close to 2%

The Aug 5 number of 133 moved us to 1.12%

I would love to see an aug  6th day of 125-130

Good luck to all.

[ezeminer]

curent picks are below:

Philipma1957    -1.01% to -1.25%

tlhIlwI               -0.01% to -0.25%

VirosaGITS        +0.01% to +0.25%  corrected my error
edonkey            +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir               +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer           +1.01% to +1.25%
HerbPean          +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho            +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom            +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm      +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss                  +2.26% to + 2.50%
Amph              +2.50% to +2.75%
Mikestang        +2.76% to +3.00%
zebedee           +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993       +3.26% to +3.50%
Lboss              +3.51% to +3.75%
notlist3d         +3.76% to +4.00%
Kexkey           +4.01% to +4.25%
wpt1wpt1       +4.26% to +4.50%
wlefever          +4.51% to +4.75%



I clean this up and added

VirosaGITS ----------  +0.01% to  +0.25%

tlhIlwI----------------   -0.01% to  -0.25%


I think 1000 blocks are done and we are closed

Well we are nearing the end of this cycle. Looks like to the moon fell from 300 to 280. At least miners will have a chance for a little longer. We are getting closer to fall... So get those paperweights into heater mode!

[edonkey]

Nextdifficulty.com says 0.3%.

My cat is getting excited!

[tlhIlwI]

This diff was interesting.  For the first time since February my spreadsheet indicated that I should run my rig around 6.1T instead of 5.7T for optimum profit after paying for power.  The temperature here wouldn't let me safely do more than 5.9T, but it was nice to see the possibility anyway.  If the price can stay near 280 then it looks like I'll once again be around 5.7T to 5.8T for the next diff.  A drop below that would hurt now though (250 would mean 5.2T).

I expected to have shut my rig down two months ago, not to be running it near its upper limit two months later!

[valkir]

Awesome! I like the actual difficulty raise. I will maybe win this one! 

And a low increase will be nice! 

[Mikestang]

Unfortunately the price seems to be keeping pace with the change in diff, and it's hovering around $277 right now.  We always see swings in the diff right at the end, so hopefully the price swings back up as well.

[philipma1957]

Unfortunately the price seems to be keeping pace with the change in diff, and it's hovering around $277 right now.  We always see swings in the diff right at the end, so hopefully the price swings back up as well.

well we are down for the day on diff.  looking like a 134 to 137 block day as of right now.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20
8  2  2015--------151    + 7      +27
8  3  2015--------156    +12     +39
8  4  2015--------137    -7        +32
8  5  2015--------133    -11      +21
8  6  2015--------144     0        +21

1878 down  so  1878/1857 =   (+1.13%)


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+1.16%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   52,884,326,692 (+1.16%)
Adjust time:   After 138 Blocks, About 22.7 hours
Hashrate(?):   359,329,063 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated:   8:0 (4.9 minutes ago)



1.13% vs 1.16%

with 138 blocks left   neg diff may be out of reach.

coinbase is holding steady at 280 usd.


according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

we had :

130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July   9th 2015
130 day July  4th  2015

In June we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015


are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015

So we can get a  swing  from maybe 0 to maybe 2.5    a 125 block day would get us close to 0  a 174 block day would get us near 2.50
the winner should be in the range below

VirosaGITS        +0.01% to +0.25%
edonkey            +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir               +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer           +1.01% to +1.25% >>>>>>>>>>> current leader
HerbPean          +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho            +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom            +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm      +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss                  +2.26% to + 2.50%

good luck!!

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,706,741,888 (+0.82%)
Adjust time:    After 101 Blocks, About 16.7 hours

better than what we got at the beginning, almost +5%

[VirosaGITS]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,706,741,888 (+0.82%)
Adjust time:    After 101 Blocks, About 16.7 hours

better than what we got at the beginning, almost +5%

Look like this is clearly within the 0.01%-2.50% philipma first allocated to me The hash on the chart is still going way down so it look like we're looking at a still lower difficulty than 0.82%.

[philipma1957]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,706,741,888 (+0.82%)
Adjust time:    After 101 Blocks, About 16.7 hours

better than what we got at the beginning, almost +5%

Look like this is clearly within the 0.01%-2.50% philipma first allocated to me The hash on the chart is still going way down so it look like we're looking at a still lower difficulty than 0.82%.

hey you stand a shot at the 0.01 to 0.25 number not bad for a first try.

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,571,467,070 (+0.56%)
Adjust time:    After 68 Blocks, About 11.3 hours

i was so optimistic that i was hopping for negative adjustment!

[philipma1957]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,571,467,070 (+0.56%)
Adjust time:    After 68 Blocks, About 11.3 hours

i was so optimistic that i was hopping for negative adjustment!

unlikely but still possible.

Bitmaintech must have sold a lot of used s-5's.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20
8  2  2015--------151    + 7      +27
8  3  2015--------156    +12     +39
8  4  2015--------137    -7        +32
8  5  2015--------133    -11      +21
8  6  2015--------144     0        +21
8  7  2015--------137    -7        +14


1958 down  so  1958/1944 =   (+0.72%)


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+0.40%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   52,485,776,884 (+0.40%)
Adjust time:   After 58 Blocks, About 9.7 hours
Hashrate(?):   351,613,165 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   22:35 (3.7 minutes ago)





0.72% vs 0.40%

with 58 blocks left       I think  neg diff may be out of reach.

coinbase is holding steady at 279.80 usd.





So we can get a  swing  from maybe 0 to maybe 1.5    

the winner should be in the range below

VirosaGITS        +0.01% to +0.25%
edonkey            +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir               +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%>>>>>>>>>>> current leader
ezeminer           +1.01% to +1.25%
HerbPean          +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho            +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom            +1.76% to +2.00%

good luck!!


maybe 10 hours left say 7 to 9 am  sat morning eastern standard time

[wlefever]

Well i'm completely out the running on this one, but it's still a win if the increase is below 1% for my mining set up.

Good luck to the ones with a chance!

[suchmoon]

Just FYI - I'll be offline most of the weekend so please don't be alarmed if I don't transfer the coins right away... will sort it out by Monday at the latest.

[philipma1957]

and the winner is:

jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%


Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409    0.81%    377,240,166 GH/s


congrats!

[jonnybravo0311]

Holy crap, I won!  I'd like to thank the members of the Academy, my Director, and my crew because without them, none of this would have been possible... oh wait... wrong event

In reality, thanks to suchmoon for providing the contest funds and Phil for managing it.  Also, thanks to notlist3d for starting up the thread this time while Phil was on vacation.

[ezeminer]

Holy crap, I won!  I'd like to thank the members of the Academy, my Director, and my crew because without them, none of this would have been possible... oh wait... wrong event

In reality, thanks to suchmoon for providing the contest funds and Phil for managing it.  Also, thanks to notlist3d for starting up the thread this time while Phil was on vacation.

Congratulations on the Oscar award! ...oh wait I mean the contest

[mavericklm]

What a lucky man! Congratz!!!

[Kexkey]

Holy crap, I won!  I'd like to thank the members of the Academy, my Director, and my crew because without them, none of this would have been possible... oh wait... wrong event

In reality, thanks to suchmoon for providing the contest funds and Phil for managing it.  Also, thanks to notlist3d for starting up the thread this time while Phil was on vacation.

Congrats!  And don't forget to thank Satoshi... 

[valkir]

Congratz! Was so near  Will work harder next diff 

[suchmoon]

Holy crap, I won!  I'd like to thank the members of the Academy, my Director, and my crew because without them, none of this would have been possible... oh wait... wrong event

In reality, thanks to suchmoon for providing the contest funds and Phil for managing it.  Also, thanks to notlist3d for starting up the thread this time while Phil was on vacation.

Nice speech, but you forgot the address 

Congrats!

[philipma1957]

Holy crap, I won!  I'd like to thank the members of the Academy, my Director, and my crew because without them, none of this would have been possible... oh wait... wrong event

In reality, thanks to suchmoon for providing the contest funds and Phil for managing it.  Also, thanks to notlist3d for starting up the thread this time while Phil was on vacation.

Nice speech, but you forgot the address 

Congrats!

Now thats funny

[jonnybravo0311]

Figured the one in my profile was the one used by default.  OK... here's the address: 1DevLdogN52pHdjZnsgi4HzreFDB4ZHVre

Thanks again!

[suchmoon]

Figured the one in my profile was the one used by default.  OK... here's the address: 1DevLdogN52pHdjZnsgi4HzreFDB4ZHVre

Thanks again!

Here you go:

https://blockchain.info/tx/6d38da8cd014cd2e7955ddfe48b70dc2d641b0bcfb64e025a7a57044e48451b8

Thanks for participating!

[jonnybravo0311]

Received and confirmed.  Thanks!

[notlist3d]

Sorry took a few day's have been with limited internet.  Did not want to announce it on forum before hand to prevent someone from trying to make a fake of me during it.

Locking thread thanks to all who helped in it.