July 25th to Aug 8th diff thread

[VirosaGITS]

Even with the super range you gave me, i didn't win!

I am joking, but;

VirosaGITS        +0.01% to +2.5%

[philipma1957]

Even with the super range you gave me, i didn't win!

I am joking, but;

VirosaGITS        +0.01% to +2.5%

yeah you would stand a good chance. with a 10x size range.  

 

the results come in about 965 blocks  your +0.01% to +0.25%  is a lot closer then bitcoinwisdom's current prediction shows.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   53,686,766,250 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>   (+2.69%)  this is a future guess on thier part
Adjust time:   After 967 Blocks, About 6.6 days
Hashrate(?):   388,679,931 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated:   13:25 (1.1 minutes ago)


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/   has us at  (+1.56%)   this is more of a current number

Blocks   367961
Total BTC   14.449M
 
Difficulty   52278304846
Estimated   53094219903 in 967 blks
 
Network total   419434.064 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.72 / 535 s

[VirosaGITS]

Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".

The round is not over yet

You're not talking about this?;

Adjust time:   After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days

[philipma1957]

Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".

The round is not over yet

You're not talking about this?;

Adjust time:   After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days

okay each  diff adjustment   that number starts at 2016  and count down to 0

so

 when 2016 - 300 =  1716   that is the start of picks
 when 2016 -1000 = 1016   that is the end of picks

we are at
   2016 -1053 = 963     so picks are ended but winner comes  in 963 blocks  with the new adjustment.  so you are in the running.


Some back ground on why we did it like this.

  We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11%   and the closest to the real number won.

 but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11%  they would pick 1.10% and 1.12%    so you got fucked in that you need to be perfect.

so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.

We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.

that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.

so we start  picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000.  so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.

We also speculate on why diff moves about.  or stays stable.  if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high  .  20% every 2 weeks for about a year.  to lower like now 2% for about a year.

[VirosaGITS]

Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".

The round is not over yet

You're not talking about this?;

Adjust time:   After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days

okay each  diff adjustment   that number starts at 2016  and count down to 0

so

 when 2016 - 300 =  1716   that is the start of picks
 when 2016 -1000 = 1016   that is the end of picks

we are at
   2016 -1053 = 963     so picks are ended but winner comes  in 963 blocks  with the new adjustment.  so you are in the running.


Some back ground on why we did it like this.

  We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11%   and the closest to the real number won.

 but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11%  they would pick 1.10% and 1.12%    so you got fucked inthat you need to be perfect.

so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.

We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.

that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.

so we start  picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000.  so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.

We also speculate on why diff moves about.  or stays stable.  if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high  .  20% every 2 weeks for about a year.  to lower like now 2% for about a year.

I see. Thank you for the explanation!

Hmm i guess people using multiple accounts still aren't really penalized, since they can get bigger range.

But at least its harder to get a pick with better odds if you wait and try to snipe the value at the last time with new accounts, since the range is locked.

Ever thought of putting a minimum activity requirement?

[philipma1957]

Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".

The round is not over yet

You're not talking about this?;

Adjust time:   After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days

okay each  diff adjustment   that number starts at 2016  and count down to 0

so

 when 2016 - 300 =  1716   that is the start of picks
 when 2016 -1000 = 1016   that is the end of picks

we are at
   2016 -1053 = 963     so picks are ended but winner comes  in 963 blocks  with the new adjustment.  so you are in the running.


Some back ground on why we did it like this.

  We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11%   and the closest to the real number won.

 but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11%  they would pick 1.10% and 1.12%    so you got fucked in that you need to be perfect.

so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.

We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.

that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.

so we start  picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000.  so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.

We also speculate on why diff moves about.  or stays stable.  if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high  .  20% every 2 weeks for about a year.  to lower like now 2% for about a year.

I see. Thank you for the explanation!

Hmm i guess people using multiple accounts still aren't really penalized, since they can get bigger range.

But at least its harder to get a pick with better odds if you wait and try to snipe the value at the last time with new accounts, since the range is locked.

Ever thought of putting a minimum activity requirement?

yeah but realistically the prize is small 0.10 btc  and so far we have not had 100 newbies in the first hour lock up all the picks.  If that happens I think we would cancel it.

[VirosaGITS]

Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".

The round is not over yet

You're not talking about this?;

Adjust time:   After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days

okay each  diff adjustment   that number starts at 2016  and count down to 0

so

 when 2016 - 300 =  1716   that is the start of picks
 when 2016 -1000 = 1016   that is the end of picks

we are at
   2016 -1053 = 963     so picks are ended but winner comes  in 963 blocks  with the new adjustment.  so you are in the running.


Some back ground on why we did it like this.

  We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11%   and the closest to the real number won.

 but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11%  they would pick 1.10% and 1.12%    so you got fucked inthat you need to be perfect.

so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.

We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.

that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.

so we start  picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000.  so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.

We also speculate on why diff moves about.  or stays stable.  if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high  .  20% every 2 weeks for about a year.  to lower like now 2% for about a year.

I see. Thank you for the explanation!

Hmm i guess people using multiple accounts still aren't really penalized, since they can get bigger range.

But at least its harder to get a pick with better odds if you wait and try to snipe the value at the last time with new accounts, since the range is locked.

Ever thought of putting a minimum activity requirement?

yeah but realistically the prize is small 0.10 btc  and so far we have not had 100 newbies in the first hour lock up all the picks.  If that happens I think we would cancel it.

Well maybe they just havent discovered it because there's newbies trying all kind of crazy thing just to get in Sig Campaign. I seen crazier stuff happen for 20 bucks.

I'm still wondering however. Where does the BTC come from, i don't see ads or anything. There is such a kind benefactor who dont mind giving 0.1 every 2 weeks?

[notlist3d]

Ohh, i see. I think i misunderstood what you meant by "end after 1000 blocks".

The round is not over yet

You're not talking about this?;

Adjust time:   After 963 Blocks, About 6.6 days

okay each  diff adjustment   that number starts at 2016  and count down to 0

so

 when 2016 - 300 =  1716   that is the start of picks
 when 2016 -1000 = 1016   that is the end of picks

we are at
   2016 -1053 = 963     so picks are ended but winner comes  in 963 blocks  with the new adjustment.  so you are in the running.


Some back ground on why we did it like this.

  We used to let you pick just 1 number like 1.11%   and the closest to the real number won.

 but people would open new accounts and if you had 1.11%  they would pick 1.10% and 1.12%    so you got fucked inthat you need to be perfect.

so the range came up a .25% range and you must have the right number in your range.

We used to open picks right a way and end them ½ way into the 2016 block diff adjustment we also allowed 1 switch in your picks.

that was a mess and too much work to keep track of.

so we start  picks 300 blocks in and end 700 blocks later at block 1000.  so now we wait about 6 or 7 days to see the winner.

We also speculate on why diff moves about.  or stays stable.  if you look at the threads and we have about 1 years worth you can see a lot of info on diff movement the whys of it being really high  .  20% every 2 weeks for about a year.  to lower like now 2% for about a year.

I see. Thank you for the explanation!

Hmm i guess people using multiple accounts still aren't really penalized, since they can get bigger range.

But at least its harder to get a pick with better odds if you wait and try to snipe the value at the last time with new accounts, since the range is locked.

Ever thought of putting a minimum activity requirement?

yeah but realistically the prize is small 0.10 btc  and so far we have not had 100 newbies in the first hour lock up all the picks.  If that happens I think we would cancel it.

Well maybe they just havent discovered it because there's newbies trying all kind of crazy thing just to get in Sig Campaign. I seen crazier stuff happen for 20 bucks.

I'm still wondering however. Where does the BTC come from, i don't see ads or anything. There is such a kind benefactor who dont mind giving 0.1 every 2 weeks?

There is a kind benefactor.   And sign campaigns are not bad if used right, but I will not get into that here not sure what crazy things you mean.  They keep it pretty well in check between campaign managers and mod admins.

But yes if a bunch of new accounts start guessing it would be noticed. So far there has not needed to be rules as normally speculation is users who have been here a while.  But if someone signs up with multiple accounts and takes guesses, i'm sure rules can be added.

Difficulty like rest of summer is still looking good:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:    53,720,691,762 (+2.76%)
Adjust time:    After 930 Blocks, About 6.4 days
Hashrate(?):    380,119,309 GH/s

Price is going down a little this period around 282 on coinbase.

[suchmoon]

Well maybe they just havent discovered it because there's newbies trying all kind of crazy thing just to get in Sig Campaign. I seen crazier stuff happen for 20 bucks.

I'm still wondering however. Where does the BTC come from, i don't see ads or anything. There is such a kind benefactor who dont mind giving 0.1 every 2 weeks?

It's just a lottery with a fairly low chance of winning. Not sure if that's really such an attractive opportunity for account farmers, milking sig campaigns is easier I guess. But as guys already mentioned we can easily add "only full+ members" or similar rule if that becomes a problem.

The BTC is coming from my mining revenue. Slow difficulty growth for the past year or so has been wonderful for mining, puts me in a sharing mood 

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20

1176 made so far   so  1176/1156 =   (+1.73%)    so in 2 days with a 150 and a 157   we jumped from 0.12% to 1.73%    still far less then the 4.47% prediction below.


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   54,614,884,940 (+4.47%)
Adjust time:   After 840 Blocks, About 5.6 days
Hashrate(?):   399,368,080 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:   7:30 (2.2 minutes ago)

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20
8 2   2015--------151    + 7      +27


1256 made so far   so  1256/1229 =   (+2.19%)        still  less then the 2.47% prediction below.


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+2.47%)



Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   53,568,040,299 (+2.47%)
Adjust time:   After 760 Blocks, About 5.2 days
Hashrate(?):   388,663,912 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated:   22:40 (5.5 minutes ago)

The number have become close  we are +27 blocks    with 760 blocks left  things are up in the air. A drop off can happen since a couple of  130 days brings us under 0 by 1 block


according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

we had :

130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July   9th 2015
130 day July  4th  2015

In june we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015


are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015

So we can get a decent swing over the next 760 blocks left.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20
8  2  2015--------151    + 7      +27
8  3  2015--------156    +12     +39

1491 made so far   so  1491/1452 =   (+2.68%)        still  less then the 4.66% prediction below.


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+4.66%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   54,715,412,465 (+4.66%)
Adjust time:   After 525 Blocks, About 3.5 days
Hashrate(?):   400,528,562 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.3 minutes









according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

we had :

130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July   9th 2015
130 day July  4th  2015

In june we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015


are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015

So we can get a decent swing over the next 525 blocks left.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20
8  2  2015--------151    + 7      +27
8  3  2015--------156    +12     +39
8  4  2015--------137    -7        +32

1541 made so far   so  1541/1509 =   (+2.12%)        still  less then the 2.92% prediction below.


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+2.92%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   53,806,269,712 (+2.92%)
Adjust time:   After 475 Blocks, About 3.2 days
Hashrate(?):   378,178,298 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29. minutes
6 blocks: 58.5 minutes









according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

we had :

130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July   9th 2015
130 day July  4th  2015

In June we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015


are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015

So we can get a decent swing over the next 475 blocks left.

The Aug 4 number of 137 dropped us close to 2%

3 days at 137 and I think we would be close to 0.50%

Good luck to all.

[judypug1956]

Really big drop in diff today.  So much  wonder why.

[philipma1957]

My guess is bitmaintech is refitting their mine.

Yesterday the blocks were 137.


http://btc.blockr.io/charts


today we are on pace for 130 maybe 125

Bitmaintech is now listing the s-5's as used gear.  I believe they are selling them all off. I also think they are not rushing to fire new gear up at the moment. Thus  diff dropped hard yesterday and today.

Lets say they packed up 3000 or 4000 s-5's for sale.  That is 3.5 to 4.6th  about 1 to 1.5%   if they do not  put s-7 or s-5+ on line while they pack up a few thousand used s-5's they get 2 full weeks of a lower rate.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>   (+1.37%) dropping like a stone.  we could be negative in a day

Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   52,993,476,422 (+1.37%)
Adjust time:   After 404 Blocks, About 2.8 days
Hashrate(?):   367,790,006 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 29.9 minutes
6 blocks: 59.9 minutes
Updated:   12:30 (2.9 minutes ago)


If we do 124 today and 124 tomorrow  we are negative.

[suchmoon]

Variance.





Ok, ok, I'm going 

[Mikestang]

Well we do know that Bitmain is unplugging S5s to sell as "new" to make way for the real new gear, so a small drop can be expected while this swap occurs.

[suchmoon]

Well we do know that Bitmain is unplugging S5s to sell as "new" to make way for the real new gear, so a small drop can be expected while this swap occurs.

If I was Bitmain I would do it like this:

- bring 100 new miners
- unplug 100 S5s (I'm assuming the new ones are roughly 1:1 replacement just faster)
- plug 100 new ones in

Rinse and repeat until all 5 or 10 or 20 PH/s is replaced.

I wouldn't empty out the whole data center at once because I wouldn't be able to manufacture all new miners or ship the old ones out instantly anyway.

[philipma1957]

Well we do know that Bitmain is unplugging S5s to sell as "new" to make way for the real new gear, so a small drop can be expected while this swap occurs.

If I was Bitmain I would do it like this:

- bring 100 new miners
- unplug 100 S5s (I'm assuming the new ones are roughly 1:1 replacement just faster)
- plug 100 new ones in

Rinse and repeat until all 5 or 10 or 20 PH/s is replaced.

I wouldn't empty out the whole data center at once because I wouldn't be able to manufacture all new miners or ship the old ones out instantly anyway.

I'm a bit lazy with math I also would have done it the way you described.

But if I just pack up a whole 3000-4000 going offline right now and get a minus one vs a plus three the math may work. Later today I will do some math on this.

[HerbPean]

Well we do know that Bitmain is unplugging S5s to sell as "new" to make way for the real new gear, so a small drop can be expected while this swap occurs.

If I was Bitmain I would do it like this:

- bring 100 new miners
- unplug 100 S5s (I'm assuming the new ones are roughly 1:1 replacement just faster)
- plug 100 new ones in

Rinse and repeat until all 5 or 10 or 20 PH/s is replaced.

I wouldn't empty out the whole data center at once because I wouldn't be able to manufacture all new miners or ship the old ones out instantly anyway.

I'm a bit lazy with math I also would have done it the way you described.

But if I just pack up a whole 3000-4000 going offline right now and get a minus one vs a plus three the math may work. Later today I will do some math on this.

I think you have to also take in consideration what is the power consumption of the new hardware. That might be a "ball game changer". S5 590Watt vs S7 850Watt (speculating)

That might bring a lot or power manipulation or none at all