July 25th to Aug 8th diff thread

[suchmoon]

I think you have to also take in consideration what is the power consumption of the new hardware. That might be a "ball game changer". S5 590Watt vs S7 850Watt (speculating)

That might bring a lot or power manipulation or none at all

Again, pretending I'm Bitmain - if I got a 20 PH/s datacenter full of 600W miners, would I

a) develop a new miner in a form factor that is a plug-n-play replacement for the old one

or

b) develop a new miner so that it requires a complete overhaul of power and cooling infrastructure.

I think at the time of S5 development Hashnest wasn't big enough for them to care too much about that (therefore S3 ~350W -> S5 ~600W) but now they have a strong incentive to keep it simple.

[HerbPean]

I think you have to also take in consideration what is the power consumption of the new hardware. That might be a "ball game changer". S5 590Watt vs S7 850Watt (speculating)

That might bring a lot or power manipulation or none at all

Again, pretending I'm Bitmain - if I got a 20 PH/s datacenter full of 600W miners, would I

a) develop a new miner in a form factor that is a plug-n-play replacement for the old one

or

b) develop a new miner so that it requires a complete overhaul of power and cooling infrastructure.

I think at the time of S5 development Hashnest wasn't big enough for them to care too much about that (therefore S3 ~350W -> S5 ~600W) but now they have a strong incentive to keep it simple.

I would pick A

[suchmoon]

I would pick A

I'm hoping for A too, I hated the upgrade from S3s to S5s, actually didn't even upgrade most of them as I didn't want replace all PSUs and there wasn't that much of a gain of W/GH. This time it should be more interesting.

[VirosaGITS]

I would pick A

I'm hoping for A too, I hated the upgrade from S3s to S5s, actually didn't even upgrade most of them as I didn't want replace all PSUs and there wasn't that much of a gain of W/GH. This time it should be more interesting.

I also think if Bitmain is refitting their mine with newer hardware, the form factor and connector factor is going to remain the same. It make it more likely for what i'm hoping to happen, happen.

I'm just not sure Bitmain need to sell the new stuff yet, but at the same time, wouldn't it be more worthwhile to sell the hardware before the Diff go up?

[HerbPean]

I would pick A

I'm hoping for A too, I hated the upgrade from S3s to S5s, actually didn't even upgrade most of them as I didn't want replace all PSUs and there wasn't that much of a gain of W/GH. This time it should be more interesting.

I also think if Bitmain is refitting their mine with newer hardware, the form factor and connector factor is going to remain the same. It make it more likely for what i'm hoping to happen, happen.

I'm just not sure Bitmain need to sell the new stuff yet, but at the same time, wouldn't it be more worthwhile to sell the hardware before the Diff go up?

If they mine 2 weeks with them before they are release, it's 2 week with more income in their pocket before they sell them to the public.

This is why we think they are selling their used S5 to flip them with their new S7 (or whatever they named it)

They are many factors to take in consideration before they sell the S7 to the public like the difficulty (if someone else bring a new hardware), the bitcoin value ... and so on.

[VirosaGITS]

I would pick A

I'm hoping for A too, I hated the upgrade from S3s to S5s, actually didn't even upgrade most of them as I didn't want replace all PSUs and there wasn't that much of a gain of W/GH. This time it should be more interesting.

I also think if Bitmain is refitting their mine with newer hardware, the form factor and connector factor is going to remain the same. It make it more likely for what i'm hoping to happen, happen.

I'm just not sure Bitmain need to sell the new stuff yet, but at the same time, wouldn't it be more worthwhile to sell the hardware before the Diff go up?

If they mine 2 weeks with them before they are release, it's 2 week with more income in their pocket before they sell them to the public.

This is why we think they are selling their used S5 to flip them with their new S7 (or whatever they named it)

They are many factors to take in consideration before they sell the S7 to the public like the difficulty (if someone else bring a new hardware), the bitcoin value ... and so on.

Hmm, i suppose that may be true, but i don't think the difference between 2 weeks of mining with new hardware in itself change much. It's just that subsequent wave of more efficient hardware raise the diff a bit and knock off some older hardware. I'm just not sure how much impact new waves will have on the difficulty.

Also i'm not sure Bitmain is going to have much competition, since they seem in a good position and very much inclined to knock them off if one try to rise. Then again, i guess we'll see soon enough.

[philipma1957]

I would pick A

I'm hoping for A too, I hated the upgrade from S3s to S5s, actually didn't even upgrade most of them as I didn't want replace all PSUs and there wasn't that much of a gain of W/GH. This time it should be more interesting.

I also think if Bitmain is refitting their mine with newer hardware, the form factor and connector factor is going to remain the same. It make it more likely for what i'm hoping to happen, happen.

I'm just not sure Bitmain need to sell the new stuff yet, but at the same time, wouldn't it be more worthwhile to sell the hardware before the Diff go up?

bitmain has so much hash power they can easily move the network's diff by 3 TO 5 %

SO two days ago diff was about 4.2 %    by packing up a shit ton of gear like the used s-5's with 3 days left to the end of adjustment they drop hashrate.  they then power on the replacement s-7's while people are buying the older s-5's.  if net diff ends at 51.8 to 52.5  they turn on say   20% more ph after the adjustment all in s-7's

so next diff jumps  but before it jumps they had 2 full weeks with  a lot of s-7 gear.

If they want to sell a shit ton of gear they could..  selling gear is a double edge sword for them since they mine.  So every ph of gear they sell hurts their farm.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20
8  2  2015--------151    + 7      +27
8  3  2015--------156    +12     +39
8  4  2015--------137    -7        +32
8  5  2015--------133    -11      +21

1680 down  so  1680/1659 =   (+1.26%)


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+2.03%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   53,339,262,076 (+2.03%)
Adjust time:   After 336 Blocks, About 2.3 days
Hashrate(?):   360,277,421 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated:   22:35 (6.0 minutes ago)



1.26% vs 2.03%

with 336 blocks left  2 days of 133 blocks would put us next to zero  so a few more sales days by bitmaintech of their

s-5's would bring us to negative numbers.  coinbase is holding steady at 282 usd.






according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

we had :

130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July   9th 2015
130 day July  4th  2015

In June we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015


are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015

So we can get a decent swing over the next 336 blocks left.

The Aug 4 number of 137 dropped us close to 2%

The Aug 5 number of 133 moved us to 1.12%

I would love to see an aug  6th day of 125-130

Good luck to all.

[ezeminer]

curent picks are below:

Philipma1957    -1.01% to -1.25%

tlhIlwI               -0.01% to -0.25%

VirosaGITS        +0.01% to +0.25%  corrected my error
edonkey            +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir               +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer           +1.01% to +1.25%
HerbPean          +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho            +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom            +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm      +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss                  +2.26% to + 2.50%
Amph              +2.50% to +2.75%
Mikestang        +2.76% to +3.00%
zebedee           +3.01% to +3.25%
tertius993       +3.26% to +3.50%
Lboss              +3.51% to +3.75%
notlist3d         +3.76% to +4.00%
Kexkey           +4.01% to +4.25%
wpt1wpt1       +4.26% to +4.50%
wlefever          +4.51% to +4.75%



I clean this up and added

VirosaGITS ----------  +0.01% to  +0.25%

tlhIlwI----------------   -0.01% to  -0.25%


I think 1000 blocks are done and we are closed

Well we are nearing the end of this cycle. Looks like to the moon fell from 300 to 280. At least miners will have a chance for a little longer. We are getting closer to fall... So get those paperweights into heater mode!

[edonkey]

Nextdifficulty.com says 0.3%.

My cat is getting excited!

[tlhIlwI]

This diff was interesting.  For the first time since February my spreadsheet indicated that I should run my rig around 6.1T instead of 5.7T for optimum profit after paying for power.  The temperature here wouldn't let me safely do more than 5.9T, but it was nice to see the possibility anyway.  If the price can stay near 280 then it looks like I'll once again be around 5.7T to 5.8T for the next diff.  A drop below that would hurt now though (250 would mean 5.2T).

I expected to have shut my rig down two months ago, not to be running it near its upper limit two months later!

[valkir]

Awesome! I like the actual difficulty raise. I will maybe win this one! 

And a low increase will be nice! 

[Mikestang]

Unfortunately the price seems to be keeping pace with the change in diff, and it's hovering around $277 right now.  We always see swings in the diff right at the end, so hopefully the price swings back up as well.

[philipma1957]

Unfortunately the price seems to be keeping pace with the change in diff, and it's hovering around $277 right now.  We always see swings in the diff right at the end, so hopefully the price swings back up as well.

well we are down for the day on diff.  looking like a 134 to 137 block day as of right now.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

7 25 2015------- 146    +2      +2
7 26 2015------- 146    +2      +4
7 27 2015------- 154    +10    +14
7 28 2015------- 139     -5      +9
7 29 2015------- 145    +1      +10
7 30 2015--------135    -9        +1
7 31 2015--------150    +6       +7
8  1  2015--------157    +13     +20
8  2  2015--------151    + 7      +27
8  3  2015--------156    +12     +39
8  4  2015--------137    -7        +32
8  5  2015--------133    -11      +21
8  6  2015--------144     0        +21

1878 down  so  1878/1857 =   (+1.13%)


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+1.16%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   52,278,304,846
Estimated Next Difficulty:   52,884,326,692 (+1.16%)
Adjust time:   After 138 Blocks, About 22.7 hours
Hashrate(?):   359,329,063 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated:   8:0 (4.9 minutes ago)



1.13% vs 1.16%

with 138 blocks left   neg diff may be out of reach.

coinbase is holding steady at 280 usd.


according to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

we had :

130 day July 16th 2015
132 day July   9th 2015
130 day July  4th  2015

In June we had
125 on June 16th 2015
125 on June 21st 2015
132 on June 29th 2015


are high blocks in July were
174 on 7/24/2015
171 on 7/ 6/2015
159 on 7/ 8/2015

So we can get a  swing  from maybe 0 to maybe 2.5    a 125 block day would get us close to 0  a 174 block day would get us near 2.50
the winner should be in the range below

VirosaGITS        +0.01% to +0.25%
edonkey            +0.26% to +0.50%
Valkir               +0.51% to +0.75%
jonnybravo0311 +0.76% to +1.00%
ezeminer           +1.01% to +1.25% >>>>>>>>>>> current leader
HerbPean          +1.26% to +1.50%
kenscho            +1.51% to +1.75%
Biodom            +1.76% to +2.00%
mavericklm      +2.01% to + 2.25%
tss                  +2.26% to + 2.50%

good luck!!

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,706,741,888 (+0.82%)
Adjust time:    After 101 Blocks, About 16.7 hours

better than what we got at the beginning, almost +5%

[VirosaGITS]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,706,741,888 (+0.82%)
Adjust time:    After 101 Blocks, About 16.7 hours

better than what we got at the beginning, almost +5%

Look like this is clearly within the 0.01%-2.50% philipma first allocated to me The hash on the chart is still going way down so it look like we're looking at a still lower difficulty than 0.82%.

[philipma1957]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,706,741,888 (+0.82%)
Adjust time:    After 101 Blocks, About 16.7 hours

better than what we got at the beginning, almost +5%

Look like this is clearly within the 0.01%-2.50% philipma first allocated to me The hash on the chart is still going way down so it look like we're looking at a still lower difficulty than 0.82%.

hey you stand a shot at the 0.01 to 0.25 number not bad for a first try.

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,571,467,070 (+0.56%)
Adjust time:    After 68 Blocks, About 11.3 hours

i was so optimistic that i was hopping for negative adjustment!

[philipma1957]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    52,571,467,070 (+0.56%)
Adjust time:    After 68 Blocks, About 11.3 hours

i was so optimistic that i was hopping for negative adjustment!

unlikely but still possible.

Bitmaintech must have sold a lot of used s-5's.