In Pakistan's first innings, except for Abdullah Shafiq and Imamul Haque, no other batsman could score any significant runs. If five players are out in single digits in an important cricket like Test, how much bigger can the team's score be. However, England's bowlers have performed much better than Pakistan's bowlers. The batsmen are performing at their best at their own venue. So far, England has taken a lead of 195 runs, which means that the match has gone 80% in England's favor. England's victory is now just a matter of time, i.e., the lead they had in the first innings can be assumed to be that Pakistan is going to be defeated.
Your predictions about England's victory proved true, with England defeating Pakistan at the end of day three. England's success depends on different factors like firstly they have the advantage of home conditions second their batting lineup was very strong and third was they showed very controlled bowling. Pakistan has many loose ends, like unfortunately Babar retired from this game due to injury and their main reason was that they don't read the wicket.
This wicket was totally different from Asian wickets because good length in Asian wickets becomes bouncers, so Pakistan bowlers need to improve their lengths. If they remain successful in the second game, they should also improve their top-order position. Here, Shan and Babar should open the innings, and Imamul Haque should replace them at number four.